| Importance of the first goal 02:07 - Oct 14 with 2522 views | azjack |
Greetings from an infrequent lurker and very occasional poster. I hope the following makes sense but if it doesn't then ask me for clarification but please spare us all the "football is played on grass not paper" responses.
According to the PL results thus far this season:
a) 65% of the teams that scored first won the game
and
b) 93% of the teams that scored first picked up at least a point
What can we take from that?
Firstly, seven games is not statistically significant however I believe that these percentages are historically within range. Therefore I'm sure that some of the managers that take a more scientific approach to the game than their peers) like BR at Liverpool are well aware of the value - not just the importance - of the first goal.
Lets look at Swansea. Realistically, they would be looking to bag between 45 and 55 points for the season with 40 being the bare minimum and 60 the absolute ceiling. GM probably has a few numbers in his head like minimum wins >> 14 * 3 = 42 points plus a bunch of draws.
Discounting, lets say an average of two scoreless draws, if GM sets a target of Swansea scoring the first goal in at least 60% of the remaining 36 games (currently their hit rate is 67%) that would account for 21.6 games. If the historical average remains close to 65% then those 21 or 22 games would yield approximately 14 wins and 42 points. Add a bunch more of the remaining draws and the points total should be 50, more or less.
Suffice to say that if scoring the first goal isn't matched with good game management then all bets are off. So far, GM seems to be learning fast.
In my opinion since the points value of a win is worth three times that of a draw it behooves the manager to risk losing one point in pursuit of three. That's another topic for sure but we can go there if you like ...and I have the stats to prove it;-)
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| Importance of the first goal on 12:44 - Oct 14 with 2410 views | GreatBritton |
Also, according to Paddy Power, the average odds of a team taking a half time lead and failing to win are 9/1 |  | | |
| Importance of the first goal on 13:08 - Oct 14 with 2375 views | Pegojack |
Interesting statistics, but I have absolutely no idea what point you are trying to make with them? Are you suggesting that we sometimes set out to let the other team score first?
Of COURSE we attempt to score the first goal! And the second, and the third...it's called winning the game by scoring more goals than the opposition. |  | | |
| Importance of the first goal on 17:11 - Oct 14 with 2265 views | azjack |
| Importance of the first goal on 13:08 - Oct 14 by Pegojack |
Interesting statistics, but I have absolutely no idea what point you are trying to make with them? Are you suggesting that we sometimes set out to let the other team score first?
Of COURSE we attempt to score the first goal! And the second, and the third...it's called winning the game by scoring more goals than the opposition. |
GM was talking recently about the need to create more chances in order to score more goals. Paraphrasing him, he mentioned that you don't just encourage and hope the team will “create more chances in order to score more goals” but you provide them with specific strategies in order to do so.
So, yes while it does seem like stating the obvious in that scoring the first goal — and a second and third goal — is critical in winning football games, typically the majority of managers employ strategies of containment rather than actively setting a team out to....gasp..win (home and away). Understandably, most of these guys are risk averse as their jobs and livelihood depend on short term results therefore they tend to stick with the “bird in hand” approach.
For example, lets say that every manager in the PL was given this choice;
A) Five wins and five draws for a total of 20 points with a goal difference of 10
or
B) Seven wins and three losses for a total of 21 points with a negative goal difference of 5
I guarantee that every one would publicly choose option B. A no brainer, right. However, in private they would prefer option A and would set up not to lose as opposed to striving to win as many games as possible. | | | |
| Importance of the first goal on 18:39 - Oct 14 with 2222 views | Thursday |
They say the team that scores the first goal has the advantage. | | | |
| Importance of the first goal on 00:04 - Oct 15 with 2151 views | Glyn1 |
We'd all agree that 2 draws aren't as good as 1 win and 1 loss, so theoretically we should accept it if our attacking football occasionally slips up and we lose a match instead. However, that isn't human nature - if we lost a couple of matches then the moaners would immediately start complaining.
By the way, can anyone tell me how good the Swans are in coming back from a goal down? When was the last time that we won a match after conceding the first goal?
Ta |  |
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| Importance of the first goal on 01:26 - Oct 15 with 2125 views | azjack |
| Importance of the first goal on 00:04 - Oct 15 by Glyn1 |
We'd all agree that 2 draws aren't as good as 1 win and 1 loss, so theoretically we should accept it if our attacking football occasionally slips up and we lose a match instead. However, that isn't human nature - if we lost a couple of matches then the moaners would immediately start complaining.
By the way, can anyone tell me how good the Swans are in coming back from a goal down? When was the last time that we won a match after conceding the first goal?
Ta |
Agreed...but what if a win was rewarded with 5 points instead of 3. Would the same justification exist then?
Swansea, at least under ML, could not be considered as a come from behind team .
I believe they did beat Newcastle late last season though after conceding the first goal. | | | |
| Importance of the first goal on 20:09 - Oct 18 with 2026 views | azjack |
Six of the seven PL games today ended as wins for the team that scored first and the seventh was a draw.
Early days but I'll make a couple of predictions right now;
Arsenal will finish outside the top four, maybe even outside the top six.
The PL title is Chelsea's to lose.
Burnley are doomed.
Both Leicester and Hull will be battling relegation come March. | | | |
| Importance of the first goal on 21:44 - Oct 18 with 1986 views | Catullus |
| Importance of the first goal on 20:09 - Oct 18 by azjack |
Six of the seven PL games today ended as wins for the team that scored first and the seventh was a draw.
Early days but I'll make a couple of predictions right now;
Arsenal will finish outside the top four, maybe even outside the top six.
The PL title is Chelsea's to lose.
Burnley are doomed.
Both Leicester and Hull will be battling relegation come March. |
I'll add a few questions to that....can Sunderland recover from todays hammering? Or are they doomed to struggle for weeks?
Have Manyoo gotten over their poor start and about to mount a genuine title challenge? This will affect us as they will be beating our competitors and we have the 3 points there already.
Are QPR not doomed? I think Leicester and Hull are both better teams than QPR.
Is the high number of internationals in our squad going to adversely affect us? We variously lose Bony, Ash, Taylor, Siggy, Montero, Fernandes, Ki and Fabianski. We don't have the strength in depth of a few other teams whilst other bottom half teams don't lose have many international players as us. So will tiredness/fatigue and/or injury haunt us at some point?
This isn't meant to be a negative post, we are very lucky to have so many talented players. It's just the flipside of the coin.
On the Op's point, I think most of us know the importance of the first goal. We always used to say we needed an early goal so oppo teams had to open up, in the lower leagues admittedly. But we knew teams would come here and park the bus and some still do.
Our problem is, we have been scoring but we haven't followed it up and killed off games. We should have been 2/3 up against Southampton and Newcastle and we would have been 5 points better off had we killed the games when we were so much on top.
Bony has had some hard luck, Krul made two excellent saves and Forster made a couple too, I seem to remember. | |
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| Importance of the first goal on 22:10 - Oct 18 with 1958 views | Spratty |
Hi azjack, I note you keep referring to Swansea as they.
That makes me think you are not a Swansea supporter - not that that matters
If so who are your team |  | | |
| Importance of the first goal on 23:04 - Oct 18 with 1929 views | azjack |
| Importance of the first goal on 21:44 - Oct 18 by Catullus |
I'll add a few questions to that....can Sunderland recover from todays hammering? Or are they doomed to struggle for weeks?
Have Manyoo gotten over their poor start and about to mount a genuine title challenge? This will affect us as they will be beating our competitors and we have the 3 points there already.
Are QPR not doomed? I think Leicester and Hull are both better teams than QPR.
Is the high number of internationals in our squad going to adversely affect us? We variously lose Bony, Ash, Taylor, Siggy, Montero, Fernandes, Ki and Fabianski. We don't have the strength in depth of a few other teams whilst other bottom half teams don't lose have many international players as us. So will tiredness/fatigue and/or injury haunt us at some point?
This isn't meant to be a negative post, we are very lucky to have so many talented players. It's just the flipside of the coin.
On the Op's point, I think most of us know the importance of the first goal. We always used to say we needed an early goal so oppo teams had to open up, in the lower leagues admittedly. But we knew teams would come here and park the bus and some still do.
Our problem is, we have been scoring but we haven't followed it up and killed off games. We should have been 2/3 up against Southampton and Newcastle and we would have been 5 points better off had we killed the games when we were so much on top.
Bony has had some hard luck, Krul made two excellent saves and Forster made a couple too, I seem to remember. |
Again, early days and I certainly don't have a crystal ball in front of me, but, regarding the Sunderland fiasco, this is where statistics can at best only provide limited clues.
Today both Sunderland and, for example, Leicester lost away from home and picked up zero points for their troubles. From a psychological point of view though, Sunderland got the living cr*p kicked out of them.
Oftentimes an under performing team (and fans) remain in denial despite a string of poor results (listen to all the post game managerial excuses - didn't get rub of the green, unfair decisions, injury concerns, lapses of concentration etc etc). A result like today can sometimes be a blessing in disguise as there are no excuses left and the next game can only be an improvement .....or NOT ;-) | | | |
| Importance of the first goal on 23:08 - Oct 18 with 1926 views | azjack |
| Importance of the first goal on 22:10 - Oct 18 by Spratty |
Hi azjack, I note you keep referring to Swansea as they.
That makes me think you are not a Swansea supporter - not that that matters
If so who are your team |
I find it hard to say "we" as I live over 2000 miles away and have never actually seen Swansea play "in the flesh".
But, believe it or not, I am a Welshman born and bred and have always enjoyed watching the Swans (usually online or sometimes on cable NBCS if I'm in the right place at the right time) | | | |
| Importance of the first goal on 00:14 - Oct 19 with 1886 views | Spratty |
| Importance of the first goal on 23:08 - Oct 18 by azjack |
I find it hard to say "we" as I live over 2000 miles away and have never actually seen Swansea play "in the flesh".
But, believe it or not, I am a Welshman born and bred and have always enjoyed watching the Swans (usually online or sometimes on cable NBCS if I'm in the right place at the right time) |
Excellent, great to spread the good chi as widely as possible.
Although you said not I seem to recall coming back in quite a few games under Laudrup as he used to talk about showing character and it was always something that pleased me because it showed a good level of resilience in the team.
Similar our last game at Liverpool (which was under Monk and we lost in the end, but I thought we showed amazing character the way we repeatedly came back). Possibly the ones under Laudrup where mostly coming back to draw, I don't recall without checking but I know there were quite a few. | | | |
| Importance of the first goal on 00:31 - Oct 19 with 1873 views | longlostjack |
The stats and probability theory while interesting are better suited to working out blackjack rather than than Jacks IMHO ! |  |
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| Importance of the first goal on 01:16 - Oct 19 with 1852 views | azjack |
| Importance of the first goal on 00:14 - Oct 19 by Spratty |
Excellent, great to spread the good chi as widely as possible.
Although you said not I seem to recall coming back in quite a few games under Laudrup as he used to talk about showing character and it was always something that pleased me because it showed a good level of resilience in the team.
Similar our last game at Liverpool (which was under Monk and we lost in the end, but I thought we showed amazing character the way we repeatedly came back). Possibly the ones under Laudrup where mostly coming back to draw, I don't recall without checking but I know there were quite a few. |
Yes, I totally agree that the ability to fight back and win - or at least draw - after going a goal down indicates a level of resilience. To be consistently successful, a team must show some backbone when, not if, things don't go to plan.
Although if a team scores the first goal less than 50% of the time (in a sport where the average number of goals per match is usually three or less) then they are making it harder on themselves, physically and maybe mentally. JMO
Look at Chelsea - out of eight games so far they've scored the first goal on six occasions and went on to win five of those games (and draw the sixth against their chief rivals). In addition, the two games in which they conceded the first goal they fought back and won comfortably on both occasions. | | | |
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