Form, logic and gut feeling all point towards QPR having a tough time of it at Derby County on Tuesday evening — the first time the sides have met since the 2014 play-off final.
Championship >>> Tuesday November 3, 2015 >>> Kick Off 19.45 >>> Weather — Cold and wet >>> Pride Park, Derby
It’ll be years before the Bobby Zamora song doesn’t ring out from the QPR fans at matches against Derby County, and in this first meeting between the two sides since that Wembley play-off final it’s likely to get plenty of air time from the hardy band of travelling faithful heading up the M1 on Tuesday night. Chances are they’ll have little else to sing about.
But Rangers fans aren’t totally without empathy when it comes to late heartbreak in play-off finals. A decade before Zamora drew his left boot back at Wembley, Ian Holloway’s QPR side were beaten in the Second Division final at the Millennium Stadium by a goal from Cardiff’s Andy Campbell two minutes from the end of extra time.
QPR, like Derby in 2014, had gone into that match as the form team and bookies’ favourites to win. They’d dominated the match but been unable to make that count with a goal, and then been sucker-punched right at the end against the run of play. Cardiff, like QPR against the Rams, were playing the final in their home city and were left to celebrate on the streets long into the night while the disconsolate losers traipsed off back down the motorway and started getting used to the idea that the promotion dream was gone for another season.
Ian Holloway, like Steve McClaren at Derby, had been a galvanising force when he arrived at QPR, turning the whole club around and setting it on an upward trajectory. Derby, like QPR back then, may come to realise that heart-breaking loss was for the best in the long run.
Given a third season in the Second Division, Holloway strengthened an already very decent side still further. Gareth Ainsworth was signed from Cardiff, Martin Rowlands from Brentford, and they were the two outstanding players the following season as a much, much stronger QPR won promotion automatically and was able to go on and finish in the top half of the Championship the season after, even rising as high as fourth at one point. The team, the club, the finances — none of it was adequately equipped for a win at Cardiff that day, all of it benefited from going up stronger a year later. It felt awful at the time, but QPR have never been back to the third tier since.
Derby have since discovered what many have theorised before — that McClaren is an exceptional coach but no kind of manager. Leaving Patrick Bamford stuck to the Wembley bench until after Zamora had scored, while Chris Martin and the Rams’ Plan A got zero change from an inspired Richard Dunne, offered the first clue that it wouldn’t work out as planned for Sshteve at Pride Park and so it proved. A bad run of injuries after Christmas last year sparked a dreadful run of form that saw them eventually miss the top six altogether. Better to discover that before it’s Arsenal, Man Utd and Man City running towards you.
Now with Paul Clement in charge, and a host of new recruits bolstering the team, they look far better equipped to go up than they did nearly a year and a half ago at Wembley — as Rangers will probably find out on Tuesday.
For QPR fans, seeing their team win at the national stadium was a once in a generation thing. Even being there, walking down Wembley Way to see Queens Park Rangers, had only happened four times before and only one of those had ended in a win, way back in 1967. That emotional feeling of pride and euphoria, mixed with the memories of people you wished were there to see it with you, and the manner in which the game was won will never be matched again. If it was the last game the club had ever played, it would still have been worth it. It’s still the best day of my life and will take some beating.
But Rangers are suffering for another season trying to run (and spend) to keep up in the Premier League. Derby know this scenario themselves, having won a play-off final against the run of play when second favourites to do so against West Brom under Billy Davies. Davies had set out a three year plan to get the Rams promoted after taking over, but managed it inside ten months. What followed was a Premier League season that broke all the wrong records — just a single win in the entire campaign, and Paul Jewell in the News of the World asking a lady of the night to "tell me how much I’m sweating.”
Even now, better equipped and financed - with a training ground, stadium and youth academy far better than anything at QPR - the reality of the disparity between Premier League and Championship means they’d likely struggle next season and potentially come straight back if they did go up. The trick is to use that influx of cash to secure your club so it’s fit for a stronger return next time, rather than ruin yourselves with it. They’ve got to get there first, of course, and the way they’ve ended the last two campaigns suggests a new Dave Jones’ Cardiff City scenario potentially growing in the Midlands. But they’d do well to cast an eye over the state QPR have worked themselves into, having spent three of the last four years in the top flight with the TV money, on Tuesday night and heed a few lessons before they go.
Links >>> Bowles rules Baseball Ground — History >>> Derby starting to dream — Interview >>> Stroud takes Derby trip — referee
Well, we weren’t going to pass up the opportunity to look at it again were we?
Team News: QPR are without inspirational centre half Clint Hill, although his injury isn’t as serious as first feared when he collapsed to the turf during Friday’s game at Brentford. He’s expected to be back in two to four weeks, which isn’t so bad with an international break approaching. Gabrielle Angella should be back from a foot injury to replace him, or James Perch can be recalled at right abck with Nedum Onuoha moving back inside. Charlie Austin returned as a sub at Griffin Park so is a likely starter here, but Jamie Mackie is a long term absentee so misses out on a return to the scene of one of his finest QPR moments. Leroy Fer missed out on Friday attending the birth of his child, he should be back here assuming he didn’t give birth to it himself. Sandro is being a big fanny again.
Derby’s impressive central midfielder George Thorne has a suspension for yellow-card accumulation. QPR fans’ favourite Bradley Johnson is likely to replace him having been introduced from the bench at the weekend. Tom Ince has his Bridge night on a Tuesday so he’s unavailable.
Elsewhere: A full round of midweek Championship action, but with the dark nights and treacherous road conditions drawing in, and hard-up families starting to turn furrowed brows towards the expense of Christmas, the Football League have done everything they can to ensure its die-hard customers aren’t inconvenienced or taken out of work for unnecessary lengths of time in order to follow their clubs this week.
Brighton, for instance, have the short hop across to local rivals Sheffield Owls while Bolton fans shouldn’t be back much past midnight from their derby match with Ipswich. Tigers Tigers Rah Rah Rah coming all the way down to Abacus, while Tarquin and Rupert go all the way up to Big Spending Burnley couldn’t possibly have been swapped over by anything other than one of the five most powerful computers in Europe. Huddersfield wouldn’t have been bad opponents for either, but they’re trekking down to Waitrose instead.
You wouldn’t want to go from Cardiff to the Champions of Europe for a bag of chips either, although given how hospitable Leeds are being at Elland Road these days I’m not sure the Red Dragons will mind that one.
Elsewhere Birmingham v the Mad Chicken Farmers is this week’s match between two teams beginning with B, Wolves travel down to a rather schizophrenic Wurzels team which followed up two very decent performances by going 4-0 down to the Tarquins before half time at the weekend.
Middlesbrough v Rotherham is a forgone conclusion, Preston v Forest less so. Franchise v Charlton rather like two bald men fighting over a comb.
Referee: Keith Stroud used to be considered a lucky referee for QPR, with no defeats in ten appointments. That was until a Boxing Day game at Nottingham Forest the season before last when Rangers were beaten 2-0, and the second goal was allowed despite originally being flagged offside. He’s done a couple of Premier League games this season and for details on those, his long QPR case history and the rest of his stats please click here.
Derby: The Rams are unbeaten in nine coming into this game, and have won seven of those including the last two at Huddersfield (2-1) and at home to Rotherham (3-0). They started the season nervously under their new manager, failing to win any of their six games in August — although four of those were draws and one of the losses came in the League Cup at Portsmouth. Overall they’ve won seven, drawn six and lost only once in the league this season. At home they’ve won three, drawn three and lost one — the defeat, their only one of the season, coming here against Leeds in August. Burnley, Middlesbrough and Charlton are the three sides to escape with draws from Pride Park so far. Their record of ten goals conceded is bettered only by Middlesbrough and Hull, two of the four teams above them in the table, and is more than twice as good as QPR’s record of 23 conceded.
QPR: That goals against record, which was the league’s worst a fortnight ago, has been improved slightly by letting in only one goal in the last three matches. Bristol City (26) and bottom placed Rotherham (27) have now shipped more. The increased solidity appears to have come at the expense of the attack though, which has failed to score in two of its last three games having previously led the league for goals scored. Fulham (26) and Middlesbrough (23) have now registered more goals than Chris Ramsey’s team. QPR did things the opposite way round to Derby, winning four and drawing one of the seven August games only to fall in a hole after that. Rangers have now won two of their last nine, both against sides in the bottom four of the league — MK Dons and Bolton. The away form has gone south as well — three wins and a draw from the first five road trips has turned into three straight defeats with seven goals conceded and only one scored. Rangers do have a good record on this ground though — three wins, three draws and only one defeat since the Rams moved out of the Baseball Ground.
Prediction: Reigning Prediction League champion isawqpratwhitecity says…
"...And then we go to Derby, a team whose run of form (an awesome 23 points from last 27) makes Brentford's seem lacklustre. Best put our underpants on our heads, pencils up nostrils and collectively say ‘Wibble’.”
Jim’s Prediction; Derby 4-0 QPR. No scorer.
LFW’s Prediction: Derby 3-0 QPR. No scorer.
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