Three straight home wins have re-instilled hope in the QPR support base that relegation may be avoided this season after all. But it looks increasingly like points from the remaining away games will be required.
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QPR have finally shrugged off half their mantra for the season – once not very good and not very lucky, they’re now playing well. The luck is still lousy, as we saw at Old Trafford last week and then again on Wednesday when a great victory over Swansea that could have pulled Rangers clear of the drop zone was tempered by Wigan’s shock win against United. Against QPR United tried every sodding trick in the book to take all three points only to then lose to Wigan a few days later. I didn’t think my hatred for that shower could grow any stronger but, hey, here we are.
Recent events have drawn me to two of our many relegation battles from the dim and distant past, one with a happy ending and the other less so.
The first that springs to mind is the great escape of 2005/06 under John Gregory’s management when he took over the worst team in the Championship by some distance ten games into the league season of which they’d won one. A brief burst of new manager syndrome saw memorable wins achieved at Cardiff and Southampton but a miserable winter period culminating in a humiliating 5-0 set back at Southend in a live Sky Friday night game seemed to have condemned us.
That thrashing at Roots Hall was for me that season what Blackburn away has been this – the moment when all hope drained away from me. A week later though Gregory added Inigo Idiakez to his team and the boys quickly turned in an improved performance at Derby that was unfortunate to only yield a 1-1 draw. Three days later they won in spectacular fashion at Leicester on what has since become known as “That day Marc Nygaard scored from outer space.” A similarly spectacular goal from Dexter Blackstock won a crucial game in hand at home to play off chasing Plymouth and Luton were vanquished 3-2 in the final seconds of the Easter Monday game. Rangers won at Coventry too and ended up staying in the league with games to spare. A remarkable achievement for which I’ve always admired Gregory, especially considering what he inherited and what that squad of players swiftly regressed back into the following season.
Comparisons can be drawn with this season certainly – for Leicester and Nygaard read Liverpool and Mackie as a result, moment and performance that suddenly flicked a switch that forced a mass pulling together of acts in the QPR dressing room. Samba Diakite looked like a liability in a home defeat against Fulham and Joey Barton was booed from the field just a couple of weeks ago, now they’re competing for man of the match awards after a 3-0 home win.
But there is that nagging feeling that this is all too late. I also remember our last Premiership season back in 1996 when Ray Wilkins’ team emerged from a winter every bit as rotten as the one we’ve just had and suddenly started putting things together. Comfortable home wins against Everton, Southampton and West Ham would have been enough had the teams around us maintained their previous form, but they all started winning as well and with Rangers unable to register an away win to supplement the home points they were relegated with a game still to play. This match with West Brom bares strong resemblance to a match we played late in that season at Coventry where a solitary away win would have preserved our top flight status but we couldn’t get it.
Lose to West Brom and with away games against Man City and Chelsea still to come it could be that all the home form in the world won’t save us because we started our run just too late. Just like 1996 teams around us are winning when they’d previously looked dead in the water so whereas it looked like 32 points might be enough a fortnight ago, now I’m not even sure if 38 will be.
I always find this a hellish time of the season where the team occupies far more of my thoughts than it should and I find myself hammering various permutations into the BBC predictor machine to see what would happen if aliens abducted half the Aston Villa squad or the town of Wigan declared independence from the rest of the country and the Latics withdrew from the league.
For the record, not that it matters with my predicting skills, I’m yet to get that bloody thing to churn out anything other than a QPR relegation even when I get us to 38 points. So I’m sticking with my line of the last four months that I do think we’ll be relegated this season. But there’s that glimmer of hope now, which both regular readers will know I hate more than anything because just when that faint flame enters your mindset QPR tend to roll in like the Gavsicon fireman and extinguish it spectacularly.
The disappointment I can deal with, it’s the hope, the hope that gets me.
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Team News: QPR have concerns over striking duo Bobby Zamora and Jamie Mackie after they emerged from the frantic Easter period with knocks. Both players have been key to the R’s of late and, with Djibril Cisse serving the final match of his four game ban, their losses would be keenly felt. DJ Campbell and Jay Bothroyd stand by for the striking role in Zamora’s absence with Akos Buzsaky and Shaun Wright-Phillips leading the charge to replace Mackie. Heidar Helguson’s absence goes on, Alejandro Faurlin is a long term absentee, Shaun Derry is back from his controversial one match ban.
Liam Ridgwell is hoping he recovers from the knee injury that kept him out of the midweek thrashing at Man City in time to face the club he supported as a boy. Chris Brunt also missed the trip to Eastlands and is expected to return here. Roy Hodgson rested Peter Odemwingie, Marc-Antoine Fortune and Gareth McAuley for what he obviously saw as a hiding to nothing in Manchester but all three are back in contention for this one.
Elsewhere: You know you’re at the business end of the season when you find yourself leaping around in your living room celebrating a Liverpool goal from Andy Carroll against Blackburn. Radios and mobiles at the ready, eyes down and look in for Rovers’ lastest match this Saturday at Swansea who have lost their last four and were very poor at Loftus Road on Wednesday. Wolves’ grizzly farewell to life in the big league takes them to Sunderland this weekend for prolonged agony while surely, surely even in form Wigan can’t win at Arsenal in the Monday Night Football can they? Bolton will move out to two games in hand, which Nottingham Forest will tell you is better than having nine points in the bag, with their match against Spurs this weekend postponed because of the FA Cup semi finals.
At the top Man City can cut the gap to two points by winning the Saturday lunchtime game at Norwich, and United can lengthen it back to five in the Super Sunday match at home to Aston Villa.
Referee: West Yorkshire referee Jon Moss is no stranger to six pointers for QPR this season having already taken charge of our home fixture with Wigan in January. He gave the R’s two penalties that day, one scored the other missed by Heidar Helguson, so more of the same in this game would not go amiss. Moss is in his debut season in the Premiership, and has refereed two West Brom defeats so far, but his tally of 11 red cards from 30 matches is intimidating. More stats and a full QPR case file are available here.
West Brom: The Baggies recorded a 3-0 home win against Blackburn last time out on this ground and have won three of the last four home matches, but they needed Ben Foster to be on top of his game in goal to get it and it barely papered over the cracks of a home record that shows nine defeats already this season. They’ve taken five more points on the road than at The Hawthorns but that Blackburn result was their only win from the last six matches and a four goal reverse at Man City on Wednesday means they’ve shipped nine goals in four matches. QPR: Rangers have turned it on just in time by recording three consecutive home wins against Liverpool, Arsenal and Swansea having only managed two in the league all season prior to that. The Swansea victory also brought about their first clean sheet in 25 attempts. The problem is Rangers now face three of their last five away from home, starting with this game, and they are without a win on their travels in ten attempts, losing six of the last seven. The R’s haven’t won back to back games in the Premiership since 1995.
Prediction: I was somewhat alarmed to find that having punched in my predicted results for the remainder of the season on the BBC website earlier today I had QPR getting to 38 points and still going down. Mind you I think that was probably as reliable as my usual predictions because Wigan were almost on the cusp of the European places by the time I’d done and we went down on goal difference from Villa who I realised I’d put down to draw all but one of their remaining games. Speaking of draws, that’s what I fancy us for here followed by home wins against Spurs and Stoke which I think might be good enough. For the first time since Blackburn away I’m actually feeling hopeful, which no doubt means crushing disappointment awaits.
Draw 1-1, 6/1 best price available at various outlets including Victor Chandler, Sky Bet and William Hill
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