With optimism sweeping W12 QPR have an almost entirely fit team that is high on confidence ahead of this weekend's televised clash with a more downtrodden Aston Villa outfit. But football is rarely as simple as it would first appear.
Barclay's Premier League >>> Sunday September 25 >>> Kick Off 4pm >>> Loftus Road , London , W12 >>> Live on Sky Sports 1
Does the league table ever lie? Judging by the contrasting moods between the fans of ninth placed QPR and sixth placed Aston Villa yes it certainly does.
Last week's win at Wolves was QPR' biggest top flight away victory since a similar 3-0 success at Everton in the 1993/94 season, and it's probably about as well as I've seen Rangers play since that day at Goodison Park . Back then the goals were all scored by Bradley Allen, part of a unique hat trick of hat tricks by Rangers players against the Toffees across three games between 1992 and 1994. The performance and result in that match, and the 5-3 win on the same ground the season before, have gone down in Rangers' folklore as arguably the finest examples of the attractive, pacey and powerful style that Gerry Francis had his team playing with before it was demolished through lack of investment.
Those memories have all come flooding back in the last two matches as Rangers have taken four points without conceding a goal, comprehensively outplaying first Newcastle and then Wolves. The formation, style and ethos is very similar to the one Jim Magilton tried to introduce at QPR before he lost the plot and started nutting his own players. Magilton's plans were always flawed by his own personality, the favourites he insisted on picking, the influence of the board members above him, the leaky back four he had in place and the general lack of ability in other positions as well. But even then, when it clicked it clicked with spectacular results.
This formation, with three attacking midfielders behind a lone striker and two holding midfielders further back who can pass, is a fantastic one and it suits our players down to the ground. Now we have two full backs who can attack from deep lying wide positions as well we have yet another exciting, offensive element within it and although an outsider may have considered the left back an odd choice in a 3-0 win where Wolves didn't have a serious shot on target until the last few grains of sand were draining through the hour glass Armand Traore's performance really shone through. We saw with Kyle Walker last season just how influential an attacking full back can be in this set up.
I heard it mentioned last week in one of the highlights packages or after match discussions that you wouldn't really associate this style with Neil Warnock, and to be fair until he arrived at Crystal Palace that would be a fair comment. Wolves looked to me like a Warnock team of old last week – playing unimaginative football in a rigid and archaic 4-4-2 set up. They played in straight lines and you only have to look at the way QPR line up on paper to know that approaching us in that way is going to leave a lot of space between your midfielders and strikers for Faurlin to have fun in, and another load of space in front of your defence where the likes of Barton, Taarabt and Wright Phillips can roam free. If we face a team this season that approaches us in as naïve a way as Wolves did last week I'll be very surprised.
This all means that there is a justifiable wave of optimism sweeping across the QPR fan base. Not enough for us to actually sell out a home game, but a happy feeling all the same. This Sunday we face an Aston Villa team whose fans are, despite an unbeaten start that sees them lying sixth, almost the polar opposite to us – unhappy with their lot and wondering exactly which direction their club is going in. Villa have a manager prone to highly negative tactics who wasn’t a popular appointment and are likely to be without their excellent striker Darren Bent through injury. There is already talk of them arriving with a defensive set up and hoping for a fifth draw from six games this season. Of all the problems I thought we'd have this season teams coming to W12 and 'parking the bus' was never one of them but following Newcastle's fairly cynical time wasting efforts last week we could potentially be in for more of the same here.
This is all rather dangerous though, and we'll get to see just how new this new QPR really is on Sunday. The old QPR would have relished this opportunity to puncture the soaring balloon of hope live on the television, gifting Villa's rookie striker Andreas Wiemann a goal or two following his recall from Watford into the bargain. We've seen it a thousand million times before – team in a spot of bother, needing a win, with an injury crisis, and a manager under pressure, and a striker that hasn't scored since Michael Barrymore was popular all rolling into town and calmly hammering us in front of the television cameras.
Don't mistake the misery and pessimism of the Villa fans, or our fairly damning 'Opposition Focus' article from earlier this week, as an indication that we're about to sweep aside a poor team. They're not and we probably won't. Villa have a solid defence to rely on and are likely to pack the midfield. They haven't lost yet and they're above us in the league. A tight and tense game will suit them with the pace they possess on the break and although Bent is injured it's Gabby Agbonlahor who has been the most impressive forward for them this season and he is very much fit and flying for this game.
The last two weeks have been a showcase for the new style and verve of this QPR team, this Sunday is highly likely to be a test of its nerve, concentration and staying power.
Team News: Neil Warnock will select the same side that demolished Wolves at Molineux last weekend if Danny Gabbidon can recover from the knee injury he picked up in that game in time. Earlier this week physio Nigel Cox said: "Danny twisted his knee, and the subsequent swelling made a full examination difficult. We sent him for a scan on Monday morning and the report has come back that there is no major structural damage, which we are delighted with. The injury certainly isn't as bad as we initially feared. At this moment in time he is a doubt for this Sunday's game against Aston Villa but he is working hard and doing everything he can to be available for selection."
There was great news from the training ground today with Jamie Mackie returning to full contact work for the first time nine months after breaking his leg at Blackburn in the FA Cup. By a quirk of fate his recovery has been timed for him to be ready to return to match action within the next two to three weeks which puts him bang on course for the home match against Rovers. Kieron Dyer remains sidelined with his foot injury.
For Aston Villa the situation is rather more troublesome. Alex McLeish has never been one to flood the opposition half with attackers but even he would rather not be without Darren Bent and Emile Heskey at the same time. Bent has a groin injury and Heskey is having trouble with his hamstring – both may travel and undergo late fitness tests but neither are likely to feature leaving Gabby Agbonlahor, with three goals from five Premiership starts, to plough a lone furrow in attack. McLeish does have Nathan Delfounso to consider as well but has called young striker Andreas Weimann back from a loan spell at Watford just in case.
Elsewhere: QPR v Villa is the Super Sunday offering from Sky this weekend, the penultimate match in a weekend programme spread over three days in the Premier League. Another newly promoted side, Norwich, bring up the rear on Monday night when they face Sunderland in front of the television cameras – Norwich are yet to win while Sunderland shook off a lousy start to the season with a 4-0 win against Stoke last weekend. Stoke had been the flavour of the month until then after a fine start to the season and busy summer in the transfer market – we await their response with interest as they face Manchester United at home on Saturday evening live on ESPN. Peter Walton is the referee there so expect plenty of talking points.
Man City were the first of the two Manchester clubs to blink last week when they blew a two goal lead to draw at Fulham and drop two points behind their cross city rivals at the top of the table. Everton are the visitors to Eastlands this weekend in the Saturday lunchtime game on Sky. There are some intriguing games among the 3pm Saturday kick offs. All eyes will more than likely be on Arsenal whose nightmare start to the season continued at Blackburn last week – they face Bolton at home, themselves without a win in the league since the opening day of the season. Blackburn may well have sacked Steve Kean last week without their miraculous 4-3 win against the Gunners on Saturday and they travel to Newcastle this weekend, themselves a surprise package so far with nine points and no defeats from five games played. Tottenham should be confident of winning at Wigan while the Liverpool Wolves match really does depend on which sides turn up as both teams have been good and awful in equal measure this season.
Chelsea v Swansea would not be allowed to take place were it a boxing contest.
Referee: It's young referee Michael Oliver in charge of our game this week. An odd appointment given that he refereed QPR at Wigan at the end of August and did Aston Villa at Everton a fortnight back. That game at Goodison Park was not without controversy with the hosts denied what looked a stone wall penalty kick for a foul on Leighton Baines enabling Villa to escape with a 2-2 draw. Controversial penalty decisions have stalked Oliver so far in this fledgling season – he had a sackful of them in the West Ham v Leeds game in August that also finished 2-2. His previous form with QPR and stats over the last 18 months can be viewed by clicking here.
QPR: Neil Warnock's men will be desperate to put right an alarming decline in home form in recent months. Although the display against Newcastle here last time out was much improved the result extended QPR barren spell at Loftus Road to six games without a win going back to the start of April. It also made it a third successive game at Loftus Road where Rangers have failed to score this season having lost 4-0 to Bolton, 2-0 to Rochdale and then drawn 0-0 with the Magpies. Failure to score again would be set in stark contrast to last season where we won our first four home games in the league without conceding a goal. Only Lucas Leiva at Liverpool has completed more successful tackles so far this season than Alejandro Faurlin with 16.
Villa: Something has to give in this game because while QPR haven't scored at home yet, Villa have only kept one clean sheet in 22 Premiership away matches. Villa are actually unbeaten this season, but only have seven points from five games because four of their league games have finished as draws – which has always been Alex McLeish's problem since he moved down from Scotland. Only Newcastle have conceded less goals than Villa so far this season but they are heavily reliant on Agbonlahor for goals now – he has half of the six they have scored in the first five matches. In our four previous Premier League seasons this fixture tended to go with the home side – in nine league and cup meetings between 1992 and 1996 the home side won all but one which finished in a draw. Last season Villa won four, drew five and lost ten of their away matches. They finished the season with two wins and a draw from their final four away matches and have managed draws at Fulham and Everton in their road trips this season.
Betting: Well our new man Owen Goulding, odds compiler at a major bookmaker, is one for one after correctly tipping more than 2.5 goals in last weekend's game at Wolves. I must confess, we all thought he was mad in the pub before the match. Anyway he's gone the other way this week so let's see what he has to say.
Prior to last Saturday's kick offs, the bookmakers struggled to split these two teams, but a steady stream of money for QPR throughout the week has seen the current odds very much favour the home side. With a strong Aston Villa side crumbling to an out of form Bolton team in the Cup in midweek, it is easy to understand why. It wasn't going to take much of an excuse for the Holte End faithful to start getting on McLeish's case and the performance in midweek certainly provided that. However, it would be easy to get suckered into this negativity surrounding the Midlanders- but the criticism aimed at the Scotsman will be like water off a Jock's back and the simple fact is that Aston Villa are currently unbeaten in the Premiership and will be a tough nut to crack. The potential loss of Darren Bent - late fitness test expected - will have a big bearing on this game. I can see QPR very much on the front foot and McLeish may well revert to his well known defensive tactics - certainly in the early stages of the game. A big difference here for QPR as opposed to their previous two games is the Villa side is well suited for playing on the counter attack. With the pace of N'Zogbia, Agbonlahor and Darren Bent (if fit), it really will be a true test of how far the Superhoops have progressed defensively with the new team structure. I see this as a bit of tight cagey affair- certainly to begin with, but think there could well be goals later on in the game. A such, I am going to recommend a small bet on the Half time correct score of 0-0 - 7/4 (currently available at Stan James).
Prediction: QPR have certainly shown in the last two games that they're not going into any match with fear or trying to play for a point. Villa on the other hand, typical of their dour Scottish manager, will always view a draw as a point won rather than two dropped this season and that will be especially true this Sunday if both Darren Bent and Emile Heskey are ruled out. I've seen people tipping an open and exciting game elsewhere but I really don't see it like that – I expect a carbon copy of our recent game with Newcastle with Villa, if anything, sitting deeper earlier than the Magpies did. They have pace on the counter attack with N'Zogbia and Agbonlahor and I expect them to pack their midfield and try to exploit that while QPR will be on the front foot for the majority of the game. It looks like a 1-0 either way if there's a score at all and I just about fancy Rangers to be the ones to get it.
QPR 1-0, 7/1 with Ladbrokes
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