With exactly half the season gone Saints have a great opportunity.

Its true to say that most Saints fans could not have dreamt that we would be top of the table at the half way mark, the general consensus seems to have been back in August, that around 8th -10th hovering around a play off spot would have been a good position to be in for us, so of course its a pleasant surprise to be wrong.

Sadly though this has been a convenient excuse, everytime we lose a game or play badly and in the second half of the seaso, we need as supporters to get out of "We are lucky to be here mode" and into "We are totally focused"

To be blunt the five year plan is out of the window, teams in our position have to take their chances when they come, the problem we will have if we dont go up is that our key players are likely to be poached by Premiership clubs, meaning that next season will see a big rebuild needing to be put in place, the stark reality is that this is our moment we need to grasp it.

Im sure Nigel Adkins will be thinking along these lines and will be wanting to make some key signings in the January transfer window, if we are to maintain our push these are essential, if we look at the season so far pragmatically, we were better in the first 12 games than we have been in the last 11.

In those opening dozen games we notched 26 points an average of 2.16 per game, in the last 11 we have amassed 21, an average of 1.90, this might not sound like a big gap, but when you look a little closer and realise that the last six games have seen an average of 1.33 per game, then we have to heed the warning that we are on a slow downward spiral and we need to do something about it.

A look at last seasons's table shows that leaders QPR had 47 points after 23 games so we are on course, but they also had a seven point lead over three clubs behind them, but that was a low points scoring season, usually at the half way mark the leading club hits the 50 mark and the pack are around 42-47. 

 Of course there are reasons for this happening and with the january transfer window about to open, we have the opportunities to address the causes of our dropped points.

These arent negative views, these are a look at the hard facts, come the final league table all that matters is points and positions, succesful teams are always aware of whats going wrong and whats going right at any time in a season.

What we have done right is that we score goals for fun, what we have done wrong is that we have lapses in concentration that cost us goals at vital times especially away from home and these cost us points, the list of these is endless, Pompey & Doncaster are just two recent examples of this, in those two games alone, all we had to do was remain tight and we would have an extra three points, that could make all the difference at the end of the season, but they are just a snapshot, I could name another four or five games where if we hadnt given away silly goals we could have picked up more points, yes every club lets in soft goals, but not on the regularity we do, even Nigel Adkins admitted we rarely let in a contender for goal of the season.  

Nigel Adkins is already speaking of the need to bring in key signings, he seems to be aware that if Rickie Lambert was to be out for whatever reason he needs a replacement in the same mould, hence I expect Jutkiewicz to be a target again, likewise he is well aware that for the last few months we have had to push Guly up front due to Barnard's long term injury and Connolly's seemingly inability to stay fit for anything other than a short period, that being the case i would hope that he also brings in a forward in the mould of Sharp/Maynard/Rodriguez to partner Lambert.

If he does that then the midfield needs little tinkering at this stage, as this would enable him to put Guly back into the right sided position he played so well in in the early part of the season.

At the back it seems we will also be looking to strengthen and strangely it seems we are in for another central defender, Fontaine of Bristol City being a target again, I say strangely for several reasons, firstly because we have only just signed Hooiveld permanently, given our inability to keep clean sheets lately, is he looking to sign Fontaine to come into the side and erase these errors or is he looking merely for back up, personally I would prefer us to be looking at a truly Premier quality central defender at this stage, someone who can cut out the lapses in concentration at the back and is ready for a top flight campaign should we be promoted, Im sure there are those that will throw their arms up in anger and tell me that Hooiveld and Fonte are good enough, all I say to that is look at our goals conceded total, we have let in exactly the same number as Pompey, in fact on the road we have incredibly let in more than them and even Coventry have only conceded 3 more than us on their travels, if this doesnt set alarm bells ringing then perhaps nothing will, Nigel Adkins seems to know about the problem.

In essence the key to promotion is making three key signings, if we do that then there is no reason why we shouldnt go on and win automatic promotion as we have addressed the areas that are costing us points at present, the worst thing would be to do nothing and hope that things will change, but the old adage is that "If you do the same things, you get the same results" and the bigger picture is we would continue to drop points and let in stupid goals as at Pompey.

A failure to make these key signings point to only two areas, A the manager doesnt see the need ( I dont think this is the case, he is already making noises in the press) or B. The Club are not backing the manager ( I dont think this will BE the case, however we have to look at the possibilities)

If Nigel Adkins wanted to be extremely ruthless then he could look to sign a new keeper, again before I start getting the abusive messages, I did say IF, so far Kelvin Davis has been adequate this season, however if we are looking ahead, signing a genuine Premiership quality keeper now could not only be another help towards cutting out those errors at the back, but could win us a few more points and would be a piece in the jigsaw ready for next season.

I know this is harsh, but if we want to get back amongst the big boys then we need to put sentiment to one side and do what we need to do.

To summarise, its been a great first half of the season, but the worry is our best period of it was in the first six games, we have a great opportunity here, we have a squad that will almost certainly not be together intact next season if we fail to go up, so we need to seize the chance now, go forwards and improve, if we do so then the sky is the limit.

With 23 games left the target is still two points per game average, achieve that and 93 points will be enough to send us up, probably as Champions, to do that we need to win 13 games draw 7 and lose only 3, when you consider some of the clubs we have to visit away from home, that puts our task into perspective, its going to be a tough 23 games. 

Photo: Action Images

Happy_Jack added 11:29 - Dec 28 It's a scary thought but I think you're right about the 5 year plan Nick. It could well be this season we need to go up or a long, long wait if we don't. This January window is crucial for us I think. Buy well and we have a great chance. If it passes us by with no quality additions we could blow it with only a couple of injuries to key players.
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Del_Bianco added 11:56 - Dec 28 I think you've called it right there Nick. It's ours to lose and although we have to go to the three teams below us in the league there is nothing to fear and 3 quality signings will be the difference between us doing it and fading away. Now we will see if Cortese has the vision and ambition everyone claims he has.
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Whatsforpud added 12:32 - Dec 28 Nick, You often use the term 'lapses in concentration' when describing goals conceded. I would imagine that professional footballers playing in front of large crowds, would or should, be fully concentrated. Is it not rather the case that errors of judgement are made instead, involving perhaps loose marking, or being pulled out of position. If all goals were preventable, every game would be 0-0. You call it 'lapse of concentration' - I would call it 'error of judgement'. However, same problem, really. You seem to point the finger at the two centre backs primarily, and then Davis. There are four defenders in front of Davis. Now that Harding is out of the team, there is no mention of the full backs by name. Sometimes the defence might be under pressure because a midfield player or forward has given the ball away. We defend as a team and attack as a team.

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bstokesaint added 13:13 - Dec 28 I personally think it's been a briliant start to the season. We play an attractive, passing game and could cut it against a number of the sides out side the top 8 of the Premiership right now. Like Whatsforpud has stated it's not "lapses of concentration" that has cost us, it's just down to the quality of the players and how good they are at actually defending. The goal against Pompey was the result of an inability to clear the ball on two occasions and Pompey wanting it more. Our biggest problem is getting points on the road. As you point out Nick our away form hasn't been great and we have been saved by our home success. We need to adapt our mental approach to believe, as we do at SMS, that we can and will win every game. We need to buy 2-3 players in the window that fit the mould of the team, i.e. no big egos and good enough to play at a higher level. They also need to have some youth on their side so if they gel they will form part of a unit that will stick together for a while. We are clearly a very together side and club at the moment. I'm still thinking top 2 is totally possible. And with regards to the '5 year plan' I don't think it has "gone out the window" as such, but may need adapting. My understanding of the plan was that it was to get us not just into the Premiership (where we've been before), but to go that one step better and compete with some of the best. We're not there yet.

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bstokesaint added 13:26 - Dec 28 My target for promotion (and possibly winning) the league; 13 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats to give us 92 points.
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sholingred added 14:12 - Dec 28 A good report,and i agree with what is needed,i reckon 90pts will get us up,wouldnt mind trying to get chamberlain back off Arsenal on loan,he needs games to have any chance to make Cappello squad this summer,maybe knock off some of the extras on him,and we have 12 million player for the run in.
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kcaj1164retsof added 14:23 - Dec 28 For me the future of this season is glaringly obvious. We need a sight more than 3 wins away from home to hope for automatic promotion. I believe Middlesborough have won 7 games away from home. If we don't improve then I think we will have to settle for play-offs.
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chilcosaint added 14:30 - Dec 28 A good summary of the first half of the season. The only part I would have an issue with is that we played better in the first 12 games than the next 11. Obviously results-wise this is true, but don't forget that for the first few games we were something of an unknown quantity and may have caught a few teams by surprise. Once we maintained the same form into September and October, though, we would have been under the microscope of every manager in the league, all desperate to find a way of stopping us. I think apart from the Bristol City, Doncaster, and Blackpool games which were all injury-affected, the team's form has not been that much worse than at the beginning of the season, it's just that, as Rickie Lambert himself said the other day, other teams have sussed us out. A new signing or two, plus the return of Connolly and Chaplow, and we'll be fine for the second half, and should achieve at least a 2 points per game average from now on.

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SaintNick50 added 23:16 - Dec 28 As supporters we all want the club to sign some great players but we know it is never as easy as that. With us top of the league (at the moment!) what funds will Nicola give to Nigel? This we be a real test of our ambitions. Is the squad we have (a) good enough to gain promotion MAYBE and (b) good enough to keep us in the Premier league if we go up MAYBE NOT. We don't want any prima donnas and I am sure Nigel doesn't either. But who do we want? Strikers - I like Jutkiewicz way too good for Coventry. I don't like Maynard even though he is available. If we really are ambitious what about Zamora:- out of our league? would he want to step down a league temorarily? We should have bought him from Brighton years ago. Not worth his £8m price tag? Midfield - I like Adomah he impressed me when we played Bristol City rather than Maynard. Puncheon time to forgive and forget? Having spent some time in the QPR wilderness perhaps he seems to now realise that being in our first team is a better option but has his attitude really changed? Defenders - haven't got a clue! Stop the existing ones making stupid mistakes which have cost us so dearly. Lets keep up the Southampton tradition and just score more goals than the opposition. Goal keeper - I am a great supporter of Bart and felt so sorry for him against Blackpool. He has played so few matches over the last four years (bring back the reserve team?), but maybe it is time for some new blood. "IN THE BUILDING TOGETHER AS ONE TOP OF THE LEAGUE IT IS AS SIMPLE AS THAT"

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Scrooge added 06:06 - Dec 29 Good report Nick. Now's the time to strike for Cortese, he can't rest on his laurels. League positions (nowadays) correlate to investment.
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Andylad63 added 08:24 - Dec 29 Saints were unstoppable early in the season when we had either Chaplow or Guly playing right side of midfield, albeit we let in goals but outscored our opponents. With guly going up top with SRL and the injury to Chappie we have looked less well balanced. Clearly neither Morgan or Cork are an acceptable replacement in that role. I feel our centre half pairing is now forging itself into potentially one of saints greatest, clearly it has taken a little time but I believe NA's patience is paying off. That said if either is injured we do not have a viable replacement for either. For me Mr Cortese needs to sort out the right side of mid-field one way or another (Guly, Puncheon, Oxo, Chappie or a new face) and support and competition at C.B. and C.F.

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bstokesaint added 12:54 - Dec 29 I'm all for a raid on Bristol City. No disrespect to them , but they have just announced debts of around £10m and we've already been linked with two of their players in Maynard and Fontaine. I have said it before, but we had no answers to Adomah when we played them so I don't see why he shouldn't interest us, especially as a right sided player. It may be that going for all three players might mean that they would need less time to gel.

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