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Expected goals 23:54 - Oct 19 with 5751 views

I might be a bit thick (probably true innit) but watching motd and on the stats at the end of each game one of the stats is expected goals, this is followed by a 2.43 or whatever. What’s that all about?

[Post edited 20 Oct 2019 0:00]

Expected goals on 17:53 - Oct 20 with 1055 views

BrianMcCarthy

Expected goals on 17:48 - Oct 20 by BazzaInTheLoft
We’ve had a couple of random hidings too.

Ya, I thought about the Cardiff one in particular. But then, how random was it? Our defending was poor, but that wasn't random or uncharacteristic.

I'm not trying to force an agenda here, just trying to make my own mind up whether we're worthy of fifth, the mid-table that a zero goal difference normally gives a team or - I suspect - somewhere between the two?

	"The opposite of love, after all, is not hate, but indifference."
Poll:	Player of the Year (so far)

Expected goals on 17:54 - Oct 20 with 1055 views

Match82

Expected goals on 17:43 - Oct 20 by smegma
No I wouldn't. A lot of these stats are for blokes who watch football in the pub to make them sound like they know what they're talking about. On the rare occasions I watch football in the pub I want to kill most know it all 'fans'.

Can only speak for myself, but
I like stats.
I like football.
Pretty sure I watch less football than you do.
Pretty sure I know less about football than you do too.
But I know a lot, and I feel like stats help me understand and explain more than I would have done otherwise.

And while stats don't tell the whole story of the game, they do help add colour for people who aren't lucky enough to go or watch. And they are evolving, I don't see why it's a bad thing

Expected goals on 17:59 - Oct 20 with 1044 views

Hunterhoop

Expected goals on 17:44 - Oct 20 by stowmarketrange
So it’s basically only useful for the gamblers amongst us?Thats why I don’t think they are useful then.

No. That is a benefit or use, but it’s also interesting when you’re looking ahead at who we’re playing soon. And I just find it interesting after games, to see how it compares to the real score.

And I go to football too.

I don’t understand why some people are getting so aggressively precious over a statistic!

Expected goals on 18:24 - Oct 20 with 1016 views

stowmarketrange

Expected goals on 17:59 - Oct 20 by Hunterhoop
No. That is a benefit or use, but it’s also interesting when you’re looking ahead at who we’re playing soon. And I just find it interesting after games, to see how it compares to the real score. And I go to football too. I don’t understand why some people are getting so aggressively precious over a statistic!

I don’t see how it can be any guide to teams we might be playing.We all know that any team can play crap one week and be Barcelona the next.It isn’t whether they are up with their expected goals average but more to do with how they play on the day.

I don’t mean to offend but I’m an old dinosaur who mainly relays on the scoreline to discover if a team is playing well or not.They seem to be intent in turning football into another American sport by breaking everything down into stats.

[Post edited 20 Oct 2019 18:28]

Expected goals on 19:06 - Oct 20 with 985 views

qprxtc

Statistics. Stupid word for a stupid thing.

They are usually manipulated to back up some biased viewpoint or to make life more complicated than it deserves to be.

Life can’t be tamed by numbers and percentages. It’s a fluid, changeable thing. Numbers are nether, they are there to create certainty and stability. But they can’t control the uncontrollable. Though they are desperate to do so.

Your lifespan is unknown yet there are statistics to say you may or may not live this long if you do or don’t do that thing. Or you could do something that may have a butterfly effect and start a tsunami.

Money. That’s the thing that controls statistics, mainly, in life. It’s why OAPs are causing untold havoc on the economy by living longer. The selfish bastards. It’s why workers are causing a haemorrhage of cash by having the temerity to want certain rights because as Boris said that cost BILLIONS.

What was I talking about? Expected goals? I expect goals every time we play a bloody game. Either for or against. That’s why we play the bloody game.

We play a whole season of games to work out where each team should be in that league. That’s the expected goal. All this Brentford bollocks is bullocks. We were the best team in the world in 1976. Liverpool won the league. That’s not expected but that’s life Esther.

I had an expected goal of ahagging Suzi Quattro in 1978. In 1987 it was Carol Decker.

I think I’ve lost my point.

Expected goals on 20:17 - Oct 20 with 959 views

Hunterhoop

Expected goals on 18:24 - Oct 20 by stowmarketrange

[Post edited 20 Oct 2019 18:28]

It gives you an indication of whether their performances have been better or worse than their results, which makes me, at least, reassess the upcoming fixture.

I mean, i’m not going out of my way to spend all my time analysing this stuff, nor am I trading my life away on exchanges, but I find it an interesting and insightful statistic, more so than practically any other.

If you don’t, that’s cool. But it doesn’t mean it doesn’t provide insight, to others at least. Therefore, let it be.

Expected goals on 20:32 - Oct 20 with 941 views

BazzaInTheLoft

Expected goals on 17:53 - Oct 20 by BrianMcCarthy
Ya, I thought about the Cardiff one in particular. But then, how random was it? Our defending was poor, but that wasn't random or uncharacteristic. I'm not trying to force an agenda here, just trying to make my own mind up whether we're worthy of fifth, the mid-table that a zero goal difference normally gives a team or - I suspect - somewhere between the two?

I think you are right. While playing extremely well, we have rode our luck at times, and when we can't get the ball in the net for whatever reason, teams like Cardiff give us a steaming.

That said I wouldn't swap our season with anyone else's right now!

[Post edited 20 Oct 2019 20:34]

Expected goals on 20:40 - Oct 20 with 926 views

BrianMcCarthy

Expected goals on 20:32 - Oct 20 by BazzaInTheLoft
I think you are right. While playing extremely well, we have rode our luck at times, and when we can't get the ball in the net for whatever reason, teams like Cardiff give us a steaming. That said I wouldn't swap our season with anyone else's right now! [Post edited 20 Oct 2019 20:34]

I wouldn't swap it either. Absolutely gorgeous feeling right now.

Thanks, man. Your comments have helped me make my mind up.

	"The opposite of love, after all, is not hate, but indifference."
Poll:	Player of the Year (so far)

Expected goals on 23:03 - Oct 20 with 880 views

qprxtc

Scrabble. It should be about the words but it’s not. It’s about the numbers.

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