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Seems like an apropos moment to bring back this thread for I believe its 4th iteration. Bit earlier than usual, but when I leave to too late getting the historical numbers is a real pain.
Welcome back to the numerical rollercoaster - last year's was the most traumatic yet!
The idea is to provide some context to our performance throughout the season. We'll be using historical precedent (the average for the last 8 years for automatic promotion, 6th and beating 22nd) and the context of how the current season is performing .
Historical Precedent
Automatic = 1.93 points per game Plays offs = 1.64 points per game Survival = 1.00 points per game
Our current trajectory is 1.85 PPG, with a forecast points total of 85 (rounded)
If we convert this to an index, where 1 is hitting the target needed
Automatic index: 0.95 Play Off Index 1.13 Survival Index 1.85
So far this season survival and play offs are exactly in line with historical precedent - but automatics are mildly behind.
But a really positive start! Most importantly having played 28% of our matches, we have 52% of the points needed to stay up!
Commence graphs
vs our historical averagres
Comparable start to previous years - perhaps key will be avoiding those prolonged "points plateaus" that were a feature of Warbz time
Weekly look at how we're faring vs key positions. 22nd left in the mud
Current trajectories. With 13 games gone the variance is low, but shows how competitive things are right now. Still, in a lovely spot
Will update probably fortnightly until things really heat up
[Post edited 10 Oct 2022 14:08]
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robith's Promotion/Relegation Index Thread 2022/23 on 14:14 - Oct 10 with 8544 views
I'm a big fan of this thread every season, and thank you for running it once again.
Do you build into your model an allowance for the team collectively switching off once we accumulate sufficient points to remain in the league for another season? An analysis of previous seasons performance suggests that this does happen on a regular basis.
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robith's Promotion/Relegation Index Thread 2022/23 on 14:32 - Oct 10 with 8453 views
robith's Promotion/Relegation Index Thread 2022/23 on 14:14 - Oct 10 by TomS
I'm a big fan of this thread every season, and thank you for running it once again.
Do you build into your model an allowance for the team collectively switching off once we accumulate sufficient points to remain in the league for another season? An analysis of previous seasons performance suggests that this does happen on a regular basis.
I'm afraid not, it's very linear and entirely backward facing.
I attempted to make it predictive a few years ago using a bodge I'd created using league position. I showed it to an analyst at work who laughed at me. When I asked what I could to make it better they said "If I could build a model that could provide insightful predictive abilities about football, do you think I'd be working here?" which was fair enough
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robith's Promotion/Relegation Index Thread 2022/23 on 10:47 - Oct 20 with 8040 views
I suspect that this season automatic promotion will be gained with fewer points than usual, but avoiding relegation will need higher points tahn most seasons.
It might be that the differene between 6th & 23rd will look reasonably close. I feel that Huddersfield are the one club that you know there final position, but who will join them at the bottom I wouldn't have a clue.
I'm not averse to repeating the 1973 battle with Burnley to be champions. Or anyone else for that matter if we are one of the two!
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robith's Promotion/Relegation Index Thread 2022/23 on 12:36 - Oct 20 with 7822 views
robith's Promotion/Relegation Index Thread 2022/23 on 12:25 - Oct 20 by terryb
I suspect that this season automatic promotion will be gained with fewer points than usual, but avoiding relegation will need higher points tahn most seasons.
It might be that the differene between 6th & 23rd will look reasonably close. I feel that Huddersfield are the one club that you know there final position, but who will join them at the bottom I wouldn't have a clue.
I'm not averse to repeating the 1973 battle with Burnley to be champions. Or anyone else for that matter if we are one of the two!
Never thought of that with it being 50 years since that epic two horse race with Burnley. All we need to do now is buy their current equivalent of Dave Thomas in the January window.
Really is peak championship so far - you have to go down to 21/22 before there's a a greater than one point difference between positions.
The pace at the top is way off the normal two points per game - we're only three points off that, but need to win the next three games to make up the difference.
"Things had started becoming increasingly desperate at Loftus Road but QPR have been handed a massive lifeline and the place has absolutely erupted. it's carnage. It's bedlam. It's 1-1."
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robith's Promotion/Relegation Index Thread 2022/23 on 14:28 - Jan 31 with 7093 views
Sorry all, as I've mentioned elsewhere the break for the World Cup made me realise how actually I'd been really struggling with attending matches without dad. With all the Beale shit, arguments about direction of the club and lacklustre performances, I haven't actually been to Loftus Road since November. So started to feel a bit of a fraud updating this.
I have however done it, as we don't kink shame here, so masochists, come on in
:-/
In each of the last three seasons we've have a period of extended flatlining
Look at this Lisa, you can actually pin point the moment his heart breaks in half
Bit weird cos no one else played our last game week (something about a cup??? I dunno, never heard of it). But 6th perversely still in theoretical grasps, but post World Cup 1&2 have hit the gas
We have played 63% of our games. We have 43% of the points needed historically for promotion, 50% of the play offs and 83% of relegation - but only 70% of the current trend for safety this season. And that would be the worry, as this is all backwards looking. On numbers we look in no danger. But the recent form is the opposite. Unless the team's form upticks soon, that run rate could become become threatening very easily.
The boom/bust cycle has happened much earlier this year!
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robith's Promotion/Relegation Index Thread 2022/23 on 15:19 - Jan 31 with 6942 views
robith's Promotion/Relegation Index Thread 2022/23 on 15:06 - Jan 31 by robith
Sorry all, as I've mentioned elsewhere the break for the World Cup made me realise how actually I'd been really struggling with attending matches without dad. With all the Beale shit, arguments about direction of the club and lacklustre performances, I haven't actually been to Loftus Road since November. So started to feel a bit of a fraud updating this.
I have however done it, as we don't kink shame here, so masochists, come on in
:-/
In each of the last three seasons we've have a period of extended flatlining
Look at this Lisa, you can actually pin point the moment his heart breaks in half
Bit weird cos no one else played our last game week (something about a cup??? I dunno, never heard of it). But 6th perversely still in theoretical grasps, but post World Cup 1&2 have hit the gas
We have played 63% of our games. We have 43% of the points needed historically for promotion, 50% of the play offs and 83% of relegation - but only 70% of the current trend for safety this season. And that would be the worry, as this is all backwards looking. On numbers we look in no danger. But the recent form is the opposite. Unless the team's form upticks soon, that run rate could become become threatening very easily.
The boom/bust cycle has happened much earlier this year!
Many thanks for the update, grim reading though it is
"Things had started becoming increasingly desperate at Loftus Road but QPR have been handed a massive lifeline and the place has absolutely erupted. it's carnage. It's bedlam. It's 1-1."
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robith's Promotion/Relegation Index Thread 2022/23 on 15:38 - Jan 31 with 6882 views
robith's Promotion/Relegation Index Thread 2022/23 on 14:37 - Jan 31 by Kensal_Ranger
Almost too feared to ask but, does anybody know if a Championship team has ever been relegated after topping the table three months in?
Yes, Millwall, 1995/96, the year McCarthy left halfway through to take over Ireland. Won nine of their first 16 games and were top in November. He left for Ireland in February, 14 points clear of the drop zone. Went down on the last day on goals scored. Won four of their last 30 games.
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robith's Promotion/Relegation Index Thread 2022/23 on 15:44 - Jan 31 with 6859 views
robith's Promotion/Relegation Index Thread 2022/23 on 15:38 - Jan 31 by Northernr
Yes, Millwall, 1995/96, the year McCarthy left halfway through to take over Ireland. Won nine of their first 16 games and were top in November. He left for Ireland in February, 14 points clear of the drop zone. Went down on the last day on goals scored. Won four of their last 30 games.
That sounds like a challenge we can get our teeth into
Sexy Asian dwarves wanted.
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robith's Promotion/Relegation Index Thread 2022/23 on 16:51 - Jan 31 with 6729 views
robith's Promotion/Relegation Index Thread 2022/23 on 15:38 - Jan 31 by Northernr
Yes, Millwall, 1995/96, the year McCarthy left halfway through to take over Ireland. Won nine of their first 16 games and were top in November. He left for Ireland in February, 14 points clear of the drop zone. Went down on the last day on goals scored. Won four of their last 30 games.
Went down on goals scored you say? Oh Dear........
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robith's Promotion/Relegation Index Thread 2022/23 on 09:06 - Feb 1 with 6538 views
robith's Promotion/Relegation Index Thread 2022/23 on 15:38 - Jan 31 by Northernr
Yes, Millwall, 1995/96, the year McCarthy left halfway through to take over Ireland. Won nine of their first 16 games and were top in November. He left for Ireland in February, 14 points clear of the drop zone. Went down on the last day on goals scored. Won four of their last 30 games.
Oooh yeah I remember that, I was at uni in Brum and went to the top of the table clash between Birmingham City and Millwall. Birmingham got a late equaliser which the away fans took in their stride, fairly uneventful day all in all...
I worked out and if you take our points per game post Wigan (H), which is 0.6 (sickbag), map that out vs the rest of the season we get to 48 points. Current trajectory at the bottom is that 45 should be the marker for safety, but the bottom 3 form is wretched too. We currently have 88% of the points required to be the bottom 3's current trajectory.
So we should be safe, but without a couple of Ws soon those numbers could start to look hairy
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robith's Promotion/Relegation Index Thread 2022/23 on 15:40 - Feb 13 with 6185 views
robith's Promotion/Relegation Index Thread 2022/23 on 10:23 - Feb 13 by robith
I worked out and if you take our points per game post Wigan (H), which is 0.6 (sickbag), map that out vs the rest of the season we get to 48 points. Current trajectory at the bottom is that 45 should be the marker for safety, but the bottom 3 form is wretched too. We currently have 88% of the points required to be the bottom 3's current trajectory.
So we should be safe, but without a couple of Ws soon those numbers could start to look hairy
Thanks Robith could be close by the sounds of it…do you need to rename the thread By dropping the Promotion part !!
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Supreme Vision CCTV on 19:03 - Feb 14 with 5923 views
robith's Promotion/Relegation Index Thread 2022/23 on 15:40 - Feb 13 by Harbour
Thanks Robith could be close by the sounds of it…do you need to rename the thread By dropping the Promotion part !!
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I've done the graphs, but they're very depressing. Can share if here are masochists on here.
We still have 90% of what the points per game totals the bottom 3 get to. The big challenge - the bottom 4 are all on unnaturally low PPG - Huddersfield on 0.93, Cardiff on 1.02. On those numbers, and how tight we're getting, it only takes 1 win above their current form trend to put us bang in trouble
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robith's Promotion/Relegation Index Thread 2022/23 on 16:15 - Feb 27 with 5450 views
robith's Promotion/Relegation Index Thread 2022/23 on 16:05 - Feb 27 by robith
I've done the graphs, but they're very depressing. Can share if here are masochists on here.
We still have 90% of what the points per game totals the bottom 3 get to. The big challenge - the bottom 4 are all on unnaturally low PPG - Huddersfield on 0.93, Cardiff on 1.02. On those numbers, and how tight we're getting, it only takes 1 win above their current form trend to put us bang in trouble
Graphs would be good if you're able. I like to be able to visualise our plight.
Sexy Asian dwarves wanted.
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robith's Promotion/Relegation Index Thread 2022/23 on 16:20 - Feb 27 with 5446 views
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