| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread 16:29 - Nov 4 with 26255 views | robith |
Hello Fellow Rs,
Some of you may remember from years gone by I have run a thread where we track our chances of making promotion, and inevitably how many points we need to avoid relegation.
I had to stop making it just before COVID, as I had my laptop stolen which had the valuable excel sheet stuck on it.
Well, what I can tell you is OneDrive is a magical thing. It has been in the cloud all this time!
I have fixed it up and updated it for the season to date, so prepare to join me on the journey!
Historical Precedent
The average points needed to make the playoffs over the last 7 years is 75
The average points needed to avoid relegation over the last 7 years is 46
Handily the median for both is also 75 and 46, meaning there isn't one season warping our numbers
Plays offs there fore = 1.57 points per game
Survival = 0.97 points per game
Our current trajectory is 1.562 PPG, with a forecast points total of 72
If we convert this to an index, where 1 is hitting the target needed
Play Off Index 0.99
Survival Index 1.61
We are in an around the PPG total we need, but our current points trajectory only gets us to the play offs once in the last 7 years.
Now obviously we need a real world comparison too. Usually around the half way point of the season when the table is a bit more fixed, I'll start to compare each week vs the team in 6th and 21st and their trajectory.
Bossing last season, though obviously we had a pretty rough 1st half of the season
This shows our forecast points based on PPG by week and where it would've got us last season. As you can see historically we'd need to get just a little better to get over 75 to be in with a shot
TL;DR - we're in the mix for sure, but at the 5/6th marker rather than guaranteed play offs.
I'll update weekly(ish) [Post edited 8 Nov 2021 10:32]
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| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 13:09 - Jan 24 with 5141 views | kensalriser |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 10:27 - Jan 24 by toboboly |
Worst thing is realising just how many games are left in the season! If we can beat Swansea and go second is there an emergency once in a lifetime button that we can press and have the season finish there and then? |
We can only go second if Blackburn lose v Boro tonight, or if they draw and we win by at least 5. |  |
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| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 10:51 - Jan 31 with 4992 views | robith |
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| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 13:42 - Jan 31 with 4796 views | Lanhoop |
Oh my! |  | | |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 14:55 - Jan 31 with 4682 views | TheChef |
Still so many games left! |  |
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| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 11:23 - Feb 22 with 4350 views | robith |
Index updates that precede unfortunate events.
But it's not all doom and gloom. Whilst I'd say the autos have slipped from our grasp slightly, we're still very much in the fight for the play offs.
We're still tracking for the play offs on both historical and current trends. Yep, we'll need to up our form again, with a tricky run in, but we are very much the masters of our own destinies still
And we still are outperforming the chasing pack enough
After all, it could be worse, look at West Brom | | | |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 12:27 - Feb 24 with 3970 views | robith |
I'll save you the graphs, but on current trajectories, we need 18 more points to make the play offs. Big March coming up | | | |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 12:54 - Feb 24 with 3905 views | dmm |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 12:27 - Feb 24 by robith |
I'll save you the graphs, but on current trajectories, we need 18 more points to make the play offs. Big March coming up |
So 1.38 points per game. Very doable given we're currently just under 1.7 points per game. |  | | |
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| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 14:12 - Feb 24 with 3787 views | toboboly |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 12:27 - Feb 24 by robith |
I'll save you the graphs, but on current trajectories, we need 18 more points to make the play offs. Big March coming up |
Could we add Bournemouth to the index, i have a funny feeling about this..... |  |
| Sexy Asian dwarves wanted. |
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| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 09:57 - Feb 25 with 3569 views | robith |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 14:12 - Feb 24 by toboboly |
Could we add Bournemouth to the index, i have a funny feeling about this..... |
I'm tracking them, but they're 3 games in hand is really messing up all my charts! | | | |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 10:04 - Feb 25 with 3548 views | TheChef |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 11:23 - Feb 22 by robith |
Index updates that precede unfortunate events.
But it's not all doom and gloom. Whilst I'd say the autos have slipped from our grasp slightly, we're still very much in the fight for the play offs.
We're still tracking for the play offs on both historical and current trends. Yep, we'll need to up our form again, with a tricky run in, but we are very much the masters of our own destinies still
And we still are outperforming the chasing pack enough
After all, it could be worse, look at West Brom |
Re your second chart, I'm just a bit confused as it suggests we should be in the automatic promotion spots, except currently we're not? | |
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| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 11:15 - Feb 25 with 3476 views | robith |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 10:04 - Feb 25 by TheChef |
Re your second chart, I'm just a bit confused as it suggests we should be in the automatic promotion spots, except currently we're not? |
Cos they're area charts to make them look nicer rather than being accurate. The top of the line is basically the current tracking from making that - we'd need to be above or on the orange line to be in the autos | | | |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 12:57 - Feb 25 with 3361 views | Myke |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 10:04 - Feb 25 by TheChef |
Re your second chart, I'm just a bit confused as it suggests we should be in the automatic promotion spots, except currently we're not? |
Know nothing about charts and graphs, but if we beat Blackburn we WILL be in the autos - even if Bournemouth have FOUR bloody gih | | | |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 10:11 - Mar 1 with 3148 views | robith |
We have played 74% of our games, and have 74% of the points our historical average shows we'd need to make the play offs (rounded down as there's a lot of decimal places going on)
Historical average: 75 points
Current 6th trajectory 73 points
But hard to bank on 73 as there's so many teams buzzing around the places now. So 75 needed imo. So 19 more points
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| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 11:10 - Mar 1 with 3095 views | Harbour |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 10:11 - Mar 1 by robith |
We have played 74% of our games, and have 74% of the points our historical average shows we'd need to make the play offs (rounded down as there's a lot of decimal places going on)
Historical average: 75 points
Current 6th trajectory 73 points
But hard to bank on 73 as there's so many teams buzzing around the places now. So 75 needed imo. So 19 more points
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Thanks that’s very helpful. looks like it will go down to the wire…bets on needing a win at Swansea last day of the season???? Of course if our form does not improve we could drop right out let’s hope that does not happen and we get back to winning ways. | | | |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 10:18 - Mar 2 with 2906 views | robith |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 11:10 - Mar 1 by Harbour |
Thanks that’s very helpful. looks like it will go down to the wire…bets on needing a win at Swansea last day of the season???? Of course if our form does not improve we could drop right out let’s hope that does not happen and we get back to winning ways. |
It's going to be tight af and we're really going to have to run through the line to get over it | | | |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 14:44 - Mar 7 with 2716 views | TheChef |
So where are we now Robith?
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| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 11:22 - Mar 8 with 2589 views | robith |
I was sadly at a funeral back in Ireland, but it seems I had a better time than those attending the match.
Basically it's very very tight. I'd currently say we're going to finish 7th by 1 point. We need by my estimation 1.72 PPG from our last 11 games to get in
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| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 13:28 - Mar 8 with 2508 views | TheChef |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 11:22 - Mar 8 by robith |
I was sadly at a funeral back in Ireland, but it seems I had a better time than those attending the match.
Basically it's very very tight. I'd currently say we're going to finish 7th by 1 point. We need by my estimation 1.72 PPG from our last 11 games to get in
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Cheers!
When the going gets tough, the tough get going. Or something. | |
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| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 17:44 - Mar 13 with 2312 views | robith |
We have played 78% of our matches. We have 78% of the points we need historically and probably this season we'll need to make the play offs. A great week to get a win when others faltered, especially vs a rival
It's going to go right down to the wire.
I still reckon 75 points makes the play offs this year.
Into these Rangers, Come on you Rs. | | | |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 15:55 - Mar 22 with 1999 views | robith |
Playoff index slips to 0.95
Historically and currently, behind the curve
Interesting how much us and Blackburn, the early stakers, have dropped off
Still think 75 deffo makes the play offs, but that's 1.875 PPG for us, which on current form, and fixtures on paper, looks deeply unrealistic | | | |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 10:35 - Mar 24 with 1815 views | Jigsore |
Blackburn actually have injured players coming back and have a *really* nice set of fixtures, practically all on the beach. think they'll be okay |  |
| “The thing about football - the important thing about football - is that it is not just about football.†|
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| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 14:14 - Apr 11 with 1392 views | TheChef |
Er, how is this looking now?
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| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 14:18 - Apr 11 with 1375 views | robith |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 14:14 - Apr 11 by TheChef |
Er, how is this looking now?
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I've been keeping it up to date but haven't wanted to depress anyone further
I added a polynomial trend line and...
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| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 14:21 - Apr 11 with 1367 views | robith |
Our play off index is actually still 0.88 as there's so many in contention for 6th, it's currently tracking at 72 points, but we'd need to win all 5 remaining games to hit 74, and I think 75 will be the cut off | | | |
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