Swansea City, LFW’s tip for last place in the Premier League this season, are currently flying high in eighth and heading to Wembley for the League Cup final.
When I was a kid I remember 90 Minutes magazine tipped Norwich as an outside bet for the Premier League title only for them to end the season relegated – so at least I’m in good company.
Yes, this weekend we play Swansea City for the first time since they gave QPR and their supporters the rudest awakening I can ever remember in sport back in August. That’s the Swansea City who are currently eighth and in the League Cup final, and the Swansea City who LoftforWords (and by that I mean me) predicted would finish dead last in the Premier League this season.
I’d probably get a mark for showing my workings were this a maths exam. After all Swansea finished last season with just two wins from their final nine fixtures conceding four to Wolves and three to Queens Park Rangers in the process. They then lost manager Brendan Rodgers who upped and left to join Liverpool and was joined through the exit door by Steven Caulker and Gylfi Sigurdsson, whose loan deals expired, and Scott Sinclair and Joe Allen who were sold. In their place had come an unproven manager with a mixed record at previous clubs and a clutch of unknown players from midtable Spanish clubs. It looked like a talent drain, with attempts to plug the dam being done on the cheap. If you’d told me then that Danny Graham would be sold to Sunderland in January I’d have been more certain than ever I was right; the Swans were surely doomed.
QPR meanwhile, well what could possibly go wrong? They’d finished the season with five consecutive home wins including victories over Liverpool, Arsenal and Spurs; they’d added experienced international players like Jose Bosingwa, Ji-Sung Park and Ryan Nelsen; they’d signed really promising, much sought after players at a good age like Esteban Granero and Junior Hoilett; they’d even signed Julio Cesar for goodness sake. QPR had arrived, this was their time. Even my pre-season prediction of twelfth was seen as typically pessimistic. A message board thread still exists in cyberspace asking whether there was an outside chance of a push for a top four finish from Mark Hughes’ men. Warning signs – Robert Green’s lousy pre-season form, dreadful performances in the only friendly games against half decent opposition out in Germany – were dismissed as “teething problems” and the hooped faithful poured into sun drenched Loftus Road for the opening game expecting a lions v Christians sort of affair.
That, it turns out, is exactly what they got – but not in the way they expected. Swansea’s development as a football team has been slow and considered. The whole ethos on the field remains deeply rooted in the foundations put in place by Roberto Martinez whose expansive game based on possession of the football and width in the attack – with the winger on the far side of the pitch the escape ‘out’ ball rather than the traditional British solution of punting a ball in behind a full back to turn him around – was revelatory to not only the Swans but also, rather shamefully, British football as a whole. The Spanish national team has since taught it to the world, but Swansea were lecturing in this art before that great side started sweeping all before them.
The board at the Liberty Stadium, led by chairman Huw Jenkins but with supporters’ trust representation holding a decent stake, recognised the strides being made and once Martinez had left they began to appoint managers in the same manner in which they had built their club up from the queue at death’s door to the prime seat at the top table: carefully, astutely, sensibly. It could have been quite easy to replace Martinez with, say, Chris Coleman but they went first with Paulo Sousa and then Brendan Rodgers who kept the ethos and added their own bits to it – Sousa solidified the defence, Rodgers added an attack to it. When faced with a choice again last summer they turned to Michael Laudrup.
What the Dane has done is taken Rodgers’ team, which could be ball acheingly dull at times, and sharpened its attacking edge. By adding Michu – the signing of this and any other season – and finally crafting a Premier League player from Wayne Routledge’s undoubted potential he has added a dangerous element to Swansea’s possession and defensive solidity.
Back in August QPR expected the Swansea team they’d beaten 3-0 towards the end of the previous season – plenty of possession, little attacking ambition. What they found was a killing machine, happy to lie in wait as it always had been before but now capable of lightening counter attacks with a clinical finish to them. Even then it was written off by some a flash in the pan as Robert Green had gifted the Swans their first goal and Rangers had therefore been forced to chase the match in searing heat which was always going to play into Swansea’s hands. That was true enough, but when QPR then turned in an even worse performance a week later at Norwich while Swansea trounced West Ham 3-0 the writing was on the wall for both clubs.
Football is increasingly becoming about the clubs with a plan, rather than the teams stuffed full of individuals. The majority of Premier League teams now have a rich owner willing to bankroll signings, so money in the boardroom is no longer the guarantee of success it was in Jack Walker’s day at Blackburn unless you end up with somebody of Sheikh Mansour’s wealth. Now the clubs that over-achieve are the ones who have thought carefully about marches they can steal on other teams. Swansea have climbed into the top half of the Premier League and the League Cup final by building carefully on the foundations Martinez laid, and scouting well in Spain where Michu is available for £2.5m and the idea that you can bring in £20m for Scott Sinclair and Joe Allen would have them laughing into their tapas.
It’s something that QPR still – despite everything that’s happened to them since that opening day humbling – haven’t cottoned onto. While Rangers were signing Ji-Sung Park and holding press conferences announcing their own arrival as a global brand, Swansea were appointing Michael Laudrup and bringing in Jonathan De Guzman.
The story book ending in the League Cup has Third Division Bradford City lifting the trophy, but personally I hope Swansea take it – and not just to make my pre-season prediction look even more ridiculous than it already does. An outfit built from the shambolic state it was in ten years ago into the wonderful football club we see before us today deserves a trophy to mark the achievement. It’s something 85 of the other league clubs should aspire to and see as a model of good practice to follow over the coming years. Particularly QPR.
Ahead of Saturday’s game we got the latest from the opposition camp from Swansea Oh Swansea fanzine editor Steven, who we thank for his time as ever.
Swansea were our tip for bottom spot this year. Did you honestly foresee it going as well as it has this season? What have been the key factors behind the success?
I always crack a smile when we're tipped to go down. I thought we would find it harder to compete this season but I didn't think we were going to go down. We're always written off so it's nothing new to us. Our last three managers have all been poached from us and each time the so called experts have said we'd struggle afterwards but every time we've managed to improve our league position so that always gives me confidence that when a manager walks it's not the end of the world. I guess the key factors would have to be some of Michael Laudrup's new signings who have helped take us to the next level, quite a few of which have been better than the one's they've replaced and he's also got the best out of players like Wayne Routledge who has more a peripheral figure last term.
What has Laudrup changed from Rodgers' time at the club? What do this Swansea team do differently from previous ones?
We're a lot better away from home than we were under Brendan Rodgers. As things stand we have already equalled the number of away wins we had last term in the league and that's not taking into account the magnificent victories at Liverpool and Chelsea in the League Cup. We tend to play a lot more on the break and two good examples of this would be the second and third goals at Loftus Road on the opening day when Routledge broke away before setting up Michu and Nathan Dyer to score. The wide players are also more narrow than they were previously and play more as inside forwards than out and out wingers.
The rebuilding job over the past ten years has been immense - how has Huw Jenkins done it? What have been the key elements of the success? Cynics would say you were essentially given a new stadium, which would never happen to a club that shares its home city like QPR.
Huw has to take a lot of credit but it's not just him to be fair. The board as a whole deserve to be recognised and the Supporters Trust who helped oust the previous regime and have ensured that we the fans are now represented at boardroom level. Since Huw and co and have been in charge they have learnt from the mistakes made by previous regimes and they only spend what they can afford to and give managers time to get it right. The stadium has helped without doubt and attendances have risen dramatically since we moved in 2005 and it coincided with promotion to League 1 which meant there was a real feel good factor about the club. On the pitch the biggest influence was Roberto Martinez who changed the way we play and ever since we have always appointed managers with the same philosophy which is really unique way of doing things but it's been a marvellous idea if you look at the success we've had since. Paulo Sousa came in next and although his football is the most boring I've ever seen which I'm sure you might be able to relate to (we only scored 40 league goals that season) he did shore up the backline before Brendan Rodgers came in an added a more attacking philosophy and now Michael Laudrup has made us more counter attacking. Special mention's go to Brian Flynn who signed the likes of Leon Britton and Alan Tate and kept us in the football league and Kenny Jackett who guided us to the first promotion in our rise.
We've seen previously clubs like Leeds and Charlton overreach and crash after reaching a point similar to where Swansea are now - where do Swansea go from here? Can they progress further than what they've achieved this season?
It's a tough one really. If we win the Capital One Cup later this month realistically we are more or less at the limit as to what we can achieve. All we can say then is to keep achieving mid-table finishes and try and get into the top half whilst hoping for cup runs. Hopefully we can do that and then maybe the financial fair play rules could help us progress further by penalising the top clubs for carrying massive debts and overspending. Either that or the likes of Roman and Sheikh Mansour get bored and decide to stop spending money leaving their clubs in administration.
Michu is the obvious success story, who are the other stand out performers? Who are the weak links if there are any?
As you said Michu has to be the buy of the season in the league and arguably one of the best in the last decade in terms of value for money. He's not our only star performer though. Your former winger Wayne Routledge has been a revelation on left midfield and the fans have forgotten about Scott Sinclair very quickly while Pablo Hernandez on the other flank has shown flashes of brilliance at times. Chico has been another excellent summer signing at centre half and his partnership with Ashley Williams has to be one of the best in the division. As for weak links then the striker position is screaming at me. Michu can play there but he's better in the attacking midfield role but since we've sold Danny Graham to Sunderland and not replaced him we are left with Luke Moore and Itay Shechter who have both yet to score in the league all season. The club said they didn't want to overspend on someone in January and although I agreed with them it seemed inevitable that Graham was going to leave so they should have signed someone earlier in month rather than waiting until deadline day and then failing to bring anyone in. Michu now has to play up front in my opinion and we have to hope his goals don't dry up.
Is the success in the transfer market down to Laudrup's experience in Spanish football, or is there some wonder scout working behind the scenes there?
It's a bit of both really. The scouting team has been of real quality since the Martinez era I would say. Angel Rangel is a good example, we found him in the Spanish lower leagues and signed him for just £10,000 and he's been a fantastic player for us over the last five and a half years. Laudrup obviously does have knowledge himself though having worked in La Liga before. Chico, Jonathan De Guzman and Pablo Hernandez had all worked with him at previous clubs and I don't think they would have wanted to join us if he wasn't in charge so the fact he was such a world class player is certainly helping us attract players to Swansea.
I very much doubt that we’ll be surprised by Swansea’s shape and system this Saturday. Not only has it been the same all season, it’s been the same pretty much since Roberto Martinez took over in 2003. You have the back four, the two deeper lying midfielders, the three attacking midfielders further forward, and the lone striker – give or take they’ve been playing this way for ten years under four different managers.
The sale of Danny Graham has left them rather short in attack, with Michu now the only real option for the lone striker role. That’s a shame for them, as he’s better in the supporting position, but he’s been absolutely excellent wherever he’s played this season and will be a threat. Another change I’ve noticed with Swansea this season is their willingness to mix up their football a little bit more than previously. We’re not talking Stoke City here, but against Arsenal at home in the FA Cup when I watched them the first two chances they created were very different in structure: the first came from what you would call a typical Swansea move that actually started right back at the goalkeeper, but the second was just a long ball knocked up to Graham when they noticed Arsenal were short handed. You’d never see them doing that under Martinez or Rodgers but Laudrup has added it to their game and brought with it unpredictability. It’s another reason I find the willingness to let Graham go without replacement strange, because he was key to the alternative method.
In that Arsenal game they played De Guzman in the supportive role through the middle with Routledge – who is finally carrying the Championship form he showed at QPR into the top flight – and Nathan Dyer swapping around either side of him. Like Michu, I prefer De Guzman one position further back, as part of the deeper lying midfielders alongside the tireless Leon Britton, but that’s more to do with the fact I haven’t seen a great deal to like about South Korean Ki so far this season than a slight on De Guzman’s ability to play further forward. When they replaced De Guzman with Michu and played him off Graham v Arsenal they scored immediately.
Another thing Swansea can do, and a lot of this probably harks back to the work Paulo Sousa did that we’re all very familiar with, is calmly draw games 0-0 as often and for as long as they want to. Against Chelsea in the second leg of the League Cup semi final they were rarely troubled, and they did likewise at Tottenham in the league when I watched them. It was dull, there’s no doubt about it, but Swansea’s execution of a tactical plan in both games was as good as anything I’ve seen this season apart from Borussia Dortmund. Just as he’s brought Routledge on as a player, Laudrup seems to have found a whole new level for the already impressive Ashley Williams who has been absolutely immense whenever I’ve seen them this season and reads the game like some of the best centre backs around. Given the respective strengths and weaknesses of these two teams, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see another 0-0 draw this weekend.
The only time I’ve seen the Swans actually outplayed this season was way back in September when they hosted Everton – a 3-0 home defeat that could quite comfortably have been six. Part of the problem was that Chico Flores was suspended and replaced by Alan Tate – Flores can be rather wild and rash at times but he’s fifty times the player Tate is – and Fellaini and Anichebe were able to run amok but that wasn’t the only reason for the domination. Everton didn’t let Swansea settle on the ball, and very deliberately closed the deep lying midfield ball player (De Guzman that day) down with three men whenever he received the ball. It strangled the life out of Swansea who couldn’t keep hold of the ball, couldn’t deal with the physicality of Everton’s attack, and then struggled to hang onto the Toffee’s coat tails as they deliberately played the game at a furiously high tempo. Do QPR have the personnel to do the same sort of job? Sadly I rather doubt it.
Also worth pointing out that you cannot fail to be impressed with youth team graduate Ben Davies who at just 19 has slotted in as the first choice left back like an experienced pro and meant that not only was the loss of Neil Taylor to a bad injury not the hammer blow it seemed at the time, but also that Taylor might struggle to get back into the team when he’s fit again.
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