| If you voted Leave....... 11:18 - Jul 9 with 24746 views | westwalesed |
…….and there was a 2nd Referendum, as the "Peoples Vote" brigade (oh the irony) want to have, how would you vote?
Hypothetically if the question was:
a) Accept the Current Deal (assuming it doesn't get watered down further) or
b) Leave the EU with No Deal in place.
I'm appealing to people here, don't let this be hijacked, no insults and petty points. Just a statement of how you voted originally would vote now, and why?
So to kick off:
I voted Leave.
I would vote to leave without a deal.
I would do so because I believe that the only way of the UK getting the deal it wants is to negotiate from a position of full Sovereign Independence.
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| If you voted Leave....... on 11:21 - Jul 12 with 1198 views | Nookiejack |
| If you voted Leave....... on 11:10 - Jul 12 by Shaky |
Are you aware of what is happening in Brussels today?
Trump is trying to trash NATO and or shake us down. His demands to move from the already arbitrary demand of 2% of GDP defence spending to 4% is being made very forceful.
The world is falling apart.
You want to walk away into the mid Atlantic, I think you are a fool. |
But he did make some fair challenges about energy security - that Germany is becoming too reliant on Russian gas.
US then defends Germany from Russia.
The same thing applies to us - as we have been closing down all our coal fired plants. So we have become particularly dependent on foreign gas, from an energy security supply perspective. That’s another thing that the EU can do by the way - post Brexit - is to knock off all our lights. Surprised you haven’t argued this already. | | | |
| If you voted Leave....... on 11:23 - Jul 12 with 1195 views | Lord_Bony |
| If you voted Leave....... on 10:57 - Jul 12 by Shaky |
"No one knows how this will play out. "
That much is true, but we have seen one Brexiter promise after another consigned to the bin. Several important ones like the the £350 for th eNHS on the day after the referendum.
This has been a relatively unsophisticaed scam that has somehow been pulled off. Now you want the electorate to say, fair play we was robbed but it was our own fault so we should now forget about it instead of say going to the police?
Fcuk that. |
How can they fulfill a promise like that when we have not even left the EU yet?
Do people expect this to be happening right now?
Remember we pay in over 7 billion annually more into the EU than we get out.
These things will take time. |  |
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| If you voted Leave....... on 11:23 - Jul 12 with 1193 views | Shaky |
| If you voted Leave....... on 11:18 - Jul 12 by wobbly |
Britain isn’t reliant on the EU for half it’s GDP either. Haven’t got time to google a source but total exports as a percentage of GDP are about 20% from memory. Exports to EU are less than half of total exports.
Still a lot, but not half! |
You're right, the 50% number is just goods exports. i misspoke |  |
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| If you voted Leave....... on 11:24 - Jul 12 with 1185 views | Shaky |
| If you voted Leave....... on 11:18 - Jul 12 by wobbly |
Britain isn’t reliant on the EU for half it’s GDP either. Haven’t got time to google a source but total exports as a percentage of GDP are about 20% from memory. Exports to EU are less than half of total exports.
Still a lot, but not half! |
. . .but i seem to be in luck having you as my own personal fact checker. | |
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| If you voted Leave....... on 11:26 - Jul 12 with 1176 views | Shaky |
"About 43% of UK exports in goods and services went to other countries in the EU in 2016–£240 billion out of £550 billion total exports."
https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-eu-trade/ | |
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| If you voted Leave....... on 11:27 - Jul 12 with 1167 views | Highjack |
| If you voted Leave....... on 11:21 - Jul 12 by Nookiejack |
But he did make some fair challenges about energy security - that Germany is becoming too reliant on Russian gas.
US then defends Germany from Russia.
The same thing applies to us - as we have been closing down all our coal fired plants. So we have become particularly dependent on foreign gas, from an energy security supply perspective. That’s another thing that the EU can do by the way - post Brexit - is to knock off all our lights. Surprised you haven’t argued this already. |
The main reason the US wants countries to up their defence budget is so they have more cash to buy guns, tanks, and other armoury from US arms manufacturers. |  |
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| If you voted Leave....... on 11:35 - Jul 12 with 1153 views | Lord_Bony |
| If you voted Leave....... on 11:27 - Jul 12 by Highjack |
The main reason the US wants countries to up their defence budget is so they have more cash to buy guns, tanks, and other armoury from US arms manufacturers. |
Exactly.
We don't need more of that crap,we have enough nukes to destroy the planet I don't know how many times.
Understand this Trumpie, the Russians or Chinese are not going to invade Europe anytime soon.
Now keep yer trap shut and build that feckin wall to keep the Mexicans out son. | |
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| If you voted Leave....... on 11:45 - Jul 12 with 1137 views | the_oracle |
| If you voted Leave....... on 11:23 - Jul 12 by Lord_Bony |
How can they fulfill a promise like that when we have not even left the EU yet?
Do people expect this to be happening right now?
Remember we pay in over 7 billion annually more into the EU than we get out.
These things will take time. |
At 4% of GDP, Single Market membership generates about £80bn a year (that is, a benefit of about £1.6bn a week) compared to a net contribution that costs 0.37% of GDP (in 2016). | | | |
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| If you voted Leave....... on 11:47 - Jul 12 with 1134 views | Shaky |
| If you voted Leave....... on 11:21 - Jul 12 by Nookiejack |
But he did make some fair challenges about energy security - that Germany is becoming too reliant on Russian gas.
US then defends Germany from Russia.
The same thing applies to us - as we have been closing down all our coal fired plants. So we have become particularly dependent on foreign gas, from an energy security supply perspective. That’s another thing that the EU can do by the way - post Brexit - is to knock off all our lights. Surprised you haven’t argued this already. |
Actually he did not make any fair "challenges about energy security ".
He implied the pipeline was a state project. Not true, it is private sector.
He said Russia accounted for 70% of German energy demand. Not true either, the number is around 20%
Germany like other advanced economies is transitioning from a carbon intensive energy supply to a low or zero carbon emissions. Gas is on that path, with the goal perhaps 30-70 years away dpending on who you listen to.
Strategically it makes sense to use natural gas reserves in this way. Trusting anything Trump says does not. | |
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| If you voted Leave....... on 11:47 - Jul 12 with 1133 views | Nookiejack |
| If you voted Leave....... on 11:19 - Jul 12 by Shaky |
You don't really believe the P&L calculation is that simple, do you?
Take away the tax revenues on Jaguar, BMW, Airbus, and the other parts of British manufacturing industry about to up sticks and membership is overwhelmingly positive.
Add tax on overseas earnings forUK services from EU and it is a no brainer, with services accounting for over 70% og UK GDP.
Then take into consideration the host of professional services like accounting, lawyers, printing, PR, etc that support the City collapsing when the they pull out.
Then there are the retailers, restaurants, bars, delivery firms, interior designers, furnishings, etc that support them.
Get fcuking real, Nookie. |
The P&L calculation is likely to end up being better - if we are allowed to negotiate our own trade deals with growing parts of the world - rather than the sclerotic EU.
Your doom and gloom end of the world scenario will not happen - if a sensible Canada Plus deal is negotiated.
The Eurozone is likely to break up though - given its current perilous state - if it takes an additional £80bn aggregate demand hit. | | | |
| If you voted Leave....... on 11:49 - Jul 12 with 1132 views | Shaky |
| If you voted Leave....... on 11:47 - Jul 12 by Nookiejack |
The P&L calculation is likely to end up being better - if we are allowed to negotiate our own trade deals with growing parts of the world - rather than the sclerotic EU.
Your doom and gloom end of the world scenario will not happen - if a sensible Canada Plus deal is negotiated.
The Eurozone is likely to break up though - given its current perilous state - if it takes an additional £80bn aggregate demand hit. |
You are just repeating slogans. | |
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| If you voted Leave....... on 11:53 - Jul 12 with 1124 views | londonlisa2001 |
| If you voted Leave....... on 11:21 - Jul 12 by Nookiejack |
But he did make some fair challenges about energy security - that Germany is becoming too reliant on Russian gas.
US then defends Germany from Russia.
The same thing applies to us - as we have been closing down all our coal fired plants. So we have become particularly dependent on foreign gas, from an energy security supply perspective. That’s another thing that the EU can do by the way - post Brexit - is to knock off all our lights. Surprised you haven’t argued this already. |
By fair challenge, you mean when he spouted utter nonsense about 70% of Germany’s energy coming from Russian gas, whereas it’s less than 10%. That fair challenge?
Trump wants us (Europe) to buy US coal /shale oil and gas rather than Russian gas. Since we don’t produce our own coal in the UK (other than a small amount in fines), moving from coal fired doesn’t make us more reliant on other countries for energy, it just changes the countries.
If only we could find our own permanently renewable source of energy, but it’s difficult being a small island, cut off from the rest of the world with all this water with their huge tides separating us... | | | |
| If you voted Leave....... on 11:55 - Jul 12 with 1118 views | Shaky |
| If you voted Leave....... on 11:23 - Jul 12 by Lord_Bony |
How can they fulfill a promise like that when we have not even left the EU yet?
Do people expect this to be happening right now?
Remember we pay in over 7 billion annually more into the EU than we get out.
These things will take time. |
i posted this from a couple of weeks after the referendum on the other thread, as a reminder of the wild-arsed nonsense the Brexiters promised us.
Perhaps a little refresher would be useful for you too.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
David Davis’ trade deal fantasies
by Sam Ashworth-Hayes |
19.07.2016
As chief Brexit negotiator, David Davis is entitled to be optimistic about our prospects. But when he told Sky’s Dermot Murnaghan Britain will get “a very, very large trade area, much bigger than the European Union, probably ten times the size” he veered into make-believe. A trade area that large would be twice the size of the global economy.
Davis’ office explained his comments to InFacts by saying he “was referring to a negotiated trade area. The EU has negotiated trade deals with countries whose total GDP is around $8 trillion… If we get new trade deals with just the US and China then we would have trade deals with economies valued at almost $30 trillion. And at the same time of course we will also be seeking deals with Hong Kong, Canada, Australia, India, Japan, Indonesia — and many others.”
Even without this hang-up, Davis’ vision of his colleague, the trade secretary Liam Fox, “going around the world… making trade deals, huge trade deals all over the place” neglects some practical difficulties. The UK has around 20 active trade negotiators, a new deal with the EU to sort out, and existing trade deals with over 50 countries to replace.
To suggest as Davis has that we will leave to find “fully negotiated” deals with multiple new nations awaiting us is naïve. Davis’ office told InFacts: “Given the time taken for other single countries to negotiate trade deals, this ambition appears to be in line with global precedents (see Chile, Switzerland, South Korea, Singapore).”
In a similar vein, Davis appears to have promised rather more from a deal with the EU than can realistically be delivered. The minister says that “once the European nations realise we will not budge on control of our borders, they will want to talk”, paving the way for single market access without free movement. It would be “irrational” if they didn’t.
The reality is that it would be irrational if they did. Though it would not be in the EU’s interests to punish Britain unfairly, offering the UK a sweetheart deal would encourage eurosceptics in other nations. France’s Front National, for instance, would be emboldened in its calls to end free movement. Other countries looking to relieve themselves of burdensome commitments could threaten to quit the bloc unless they too got special treatment.
Even without these incentives, the EU may not be in the mood to do Britain any favours if the UK adopts Davis’ advice of negotiating free trade deals with other countries before we leave. As an EU member state, we are not allowed to negotiate free trade deals. But, according to Davis’ office, “the spirit of EU rules governing trade negotiations is not that countries exiting the EU should be prohibited from negotiating new deals in expectation of that exit — there is clearly no such intention within the rules.”
Davis may be jumping the gun. But whether or not these rules apply to us after we begin the process of leaving is up for unclear, according to Steve Peers, law professor at Essex University.
Finally, Davis feels we might still get a special deal because “everyone knows the balance of trade is in Europe’s favour”. It is true that the EU sells more to us than we sell to it, but that tells us nothing about who benefits more from the trade.
In short, the EU has no incentive to give us a deal that preserves our current level of access to the single market, with no commitment to free movement. At the same time, we are not well placed to arrange new trade deals to cushion our departure from the bloc.
Edited by Hugo Dixon | |
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| If you voted Leave....... on 11:57 - Jul 12 with 1113 views | Nookiejack |
| If you voted Leave....... on 11:49 - Jul 12 by Shaky |
You are just repeating slogans. |
So how is the EU going to make up the £80bn aggregate demand deficit - which will also have a multiplier affect across Europe.
Their borrowing rate is 0.0% so they can’t cut interest rates?
They are already undertaking 30 billion a month of QE.
They are running massive Govt Debt to GDP ratios - so are they going to embark on an additional massive borrowing programme to compensate for lost trade with the UK? When they can just do a deal with us. | | | |
| If you voted Leave....... on 11:57 - Jul 12 with 1111 views | jack_lord |
| If you voted Leave....... on 11:53 - Jul 12 by londonlisa2001 |
By fair challenge, you mean when he spouted utter nonsense about 70% of Germany’s energy coming from Russian gas, whereas it’s less than 10%. That fair challenge?
Trump wants us (Europe) to buy US coal /shale oil and gas rather than Russian gas. Since we don’t produce our own coal in the UK (other than a small amount in fines), moving from coal fired doesn’t make us more reliant on other countries for energy, it just changes the countries.
If only we could find our own permanently renewable source of energy, but it’s difficult being a small island, cut off from the rest of the world with all this water with their huge tides separating us... |
If only something existed that could harness that. |  |
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| If you voted Leave....... on 12:06 - Jul 12 with 1093 views | Lord_Bony |
| If you voted Leave....... on 11:45 - Jul 12 by the_oracle |
At 4% of GDP, Single Market membership generates about £80bn a year (that is, a benefit of about £1.6bn a week) compared to a net contribution that costs 0.37% of GDP (in 2016). |
The Uk and Germany pay most into the EU,we get far less out of it than we put in while other poorer economies benefit greatly at our expense.
"Last week the Office of National Statistics revealed the EU billed the UK for £19.6bn in 2015 or almost £376 million each week.
The revelation comes after repeated claims by the Remain campaign and its supporters that Vote Leave's battlebus gross figure of £350 million a week going to the EU was "a lie".
Once the UK rebate worth around £4.9 billion a year and EU payments to specific projects in Britain had been taken away then the UK handed over £10.9 billion to the EU in 2015 or £199 million each week.
However, Vote Leave always argued that the rebate repayment is delayed by a year and Britain has no control of the £4.3 billion spent on projects in the UK.
Conservative for Britain co-chairman Steve Baker, the MP for Wycombe, said: "Shockingly were billed even more than Vote Leave thought." | |
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| If you voted Leave....... on 12:07 - Jul 12 with 1089 views | Shaky |
| If you voted Leave....... on 11:57 - Jul 12 by Nookiejack |
So how is the EU going to make up the £80bn aggregate demand deficit - which will also have a multiplier affect across Europe.
Their borrowing rate is 0.0% so they can’t cut interest rates?
They are already undertaking 30 billion a month of QE.
They are running massive Govt Debt to GDP ratios - so are they going to embark on an additional massive borrowing programme to compensate for lost trade with the UK? When they can just do a deal with us. |
I will deal with your sole substantive point:
"how is the EU going to make up the £80bn aggregate demand deficit - which will also have a multiplier affect across Europe."
How will what remains of UK manufacturing industry deal with buying industrial machinery, machine tools etc, if they can no longer buy German?
The answer is they have no real alternative; they must buy German, or Japanese, some American.
Of course trade doesn't work like this anyway. Things will still be bought and sold, it will just be much more complicated and expensive to do so.
And £80bn is around 6/10ths of a percent of EU GDP. Peanuts. | |
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| If you voted Leave....... on 12:11 - Jul 12 with 1080 views | Batterseajack |
| If you voted Leave....... on 11:57 - Jul 12 by Nookiejack |
So how is the EU going to make up the £80bn aggregate demand deficit - which will also have a multiplier affect across Europe.
Their borrowing rate is 0.0% so they can’t cut interest rates?
They are already undertaking 30 billion a month of QE.
They are running massive Govt Debt to GDP ratios - so are they going to embark on an additional massive borrowing programme to compensate for lost trade with the UK? When they can just do a deal with us. |
Begs the question really, why aren't they caving in yet to our every demand?
We need to hold our stare until they blink first. | | | |
| If you voted Leave....... on 12:13 - Jul 12 with 1069 views | Nookiejack |
| If you voted Leave....... on 11:53 - Jul 12 by londonlisa2001 |
By fair challenge, you mean when he spouted utter nonsense about 70% of Germany’s energy coming from Russian gas, whereas it’s less than 10%. That fair challenge?
Trump wants us (Europe) to buy US coal /shale oil and gas rather than Russian gas. Since we don’t produce our own coal in the UK (other than a small amount in fines), moving from coal fired doesn’t make us more reliant on other countries for energy, it just changes the countries.
If only we could find our own permanently renewable source of energy, but it’s difficult being a small island, cut off from the rest of the world with all this water with their huge tides separating us... |
In the Guardian today
Germany and Russia gas links: Trump is not only one to ask questions
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/jul/11/germany-a
“Donald Trump may have used typically emotive — if premeditated — language from the outset at the Nato summit in Brussels to lambast Germany for its willingness to build a gas pipeline, but the US president’s view that this will make Europe particularly dependent on Russian gas is widely shared by European politicians, thinktanks and energy specialists, including some in Berlin.” | | | |
| If you voted Leave....... on 12:13 - Jul 12 with 1069 views | Lord_Bony |
It's the Germans I feel sorry for.
When we leave the burden will be even more on them to carry the rest of the EU. | |
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| If you voted Leave....... on 12:17 - Jul 12 with 1061 views | Nookiejack |
| If you voted Leave....... on 12:11 - Jul 12 by Batterseajack |
Begs the question really, why aren't they caving in yet to our every demand?
We need to hold our stare until they blink first. |
Because our political elite who are the majority in Parliament don’t want to leave. | | | |
| If you voted Leave....... on 12:24 - Jul 12 with 1046 views | Batterseajack |
| If you voted Leave....... on 12:17 - Jul 12 by Nookiejack |
Because our political elite who are the majority in Parliament don’t want to leave. |
.......or everyone knows that the UK will be far more worse off that the EU in such a scenario, so the EU can hold its stare. | | | |
| If you voted Leave....... on 12:25 - Jul 12 with 1043 views | Shaky |
| If you voted Leave....... on 12:13 - Jul 12 by Nookiejack |
In the Guardian today
Germany and Russia gas links: Trump is not only one to ask questions
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/jul/11/germany-a
“Donald Trump may have used typically emotive — if premeditated — language from the outset at the Nato summit in Brussels to lambast Germany for its willingness to build a gas pipeline, but the US president’s view that this will make Europe particularly dependent on Russian gas is widely shared by European politicians, thinktanks and energy specialists, including some in Berlin.” |
The thing is all countries face strategic problems. All countries.
What they typically try to do is to plan sensibly, build in contingencies and mitigate risks as far as possible.
Britain appears alone in buying into a 100 unknown speculative fantasy. Or perhaps currently 30% speculative given all the elements that have already been exposed as a sham. | |
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| If you voted Leave....... on 12:26 - Jul 12 with 1042 views | Nookiejack |
| If you voted Leave....... on 12:07 - Jul 12 by Shaky |
I will deal with your sole substantive point:
"how is the EU going to make up the £80bn aggregate demand deficit - which will also have a multiplier affect across Europe."
How will what remains of UK manufacturing industry deal with buying industrial machinery, machine tools etc, if they can no longer buy German?
The answer is they have no real alternative; they must buy German, or Japanese, some American.
Of course trade doesn't work like this anyway. Things will still be bought and sold, it will just be much more complicated and expensive to do so.
And £80bn is around 6/10ths of a percent of EU GDP. Peanuts. |
The Eurozone is truly at a tipping point - take current Italian situation - then don’t also forget that the issues of the Greek debt still haven’t been sorted out. German creditors essentially to take a haircut on the debts Greece can simply not pay back.
If we run £80bn trade deficit with the EU - that means we create aggregate demand in Europe - that has a much greater multipler affect than the initial £80billion.
If I buy a good off a shopkeeper, the shopkeeper then has income to buy bread from a baker, the baker then has income to buy meat from a butcher and so on.
So it is not negligible and you only need a small economic shock in the Eurozone at the moment to bring it all down. | | | |
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