Forum | So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 by Dr_Parnassus

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So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 02:51 - May 2 with 13995 views

Firstly congratulations to Steve Cooper, the players and everyone at the club for not only reaching the playoffs for the second consecutive year, but amassing a points tally equal to our record best in this division, held previously by our incredible Brendan Rodgers side the year we went up.

We do have a chance to topple that record with any kind of positive result against Watford next week.

2011

2021

Not only is the points tally being exactly the same pretty remarkable, but also the fact we were going in with the best defensive record and yet the worst (joint) scoring record. Whether or not you like the style, like the manager - the blueprint has been very similar with regards to that.

But now the playoffs have been decided and we can look ahead...

The worst possible result for us sadly. They are one of those teams we don’t seem to do well against and think it’s fair to say that on paper have the strongest squad in the playoffs. Our last 6 meetings:-

Bournemouth 3-0 Swansea
Swansea 0-0 Bournemouth

Bournemouth 1-0 Swansea
Swansea 0-0 Bournemouth

Bournemouth 2-0 Swansea
Swansea 0-3 Bournemouth

0 goals scored. 9 goals conceded.

As many may have gathered by now I approach football the same way as I do with most aspects of life, methodical with a focus on statistics, trends and probabilities.

That premise suggests that you want to avoid the best team over the longest period of time. If you must meet that team then you have a greater chance to beat that team over a shorter period of time.

For example if Man City played Sheff United over a 90 minute match, they would probably be in the region of 1/10 to win, if the rules of the game made that a 180 minute match the odds would probably be 1/20, because the longer the time you have the more chance that the class difference will tell.

So ideally we would have wanted them in the final where aspects such as luck can play a part and not have chance to even itself out over the longer course of 2 legs.

So it’s going to be tough. But not impossible. We had a similar route in the Carling Cup where we were faced with playing Chelsea over 2 legs which set up an easier final. So it’s not out of the question.

Bournemouth rested a host of players against Wycombe yesterday and will probably do so again next week. We didn’t rest as many as I thought we would so would like to see that happen next week, which really is a dead rubber. It would be pretty galling to pick up an injury or red card.

All that is left to play for is home advantage in the second leg.

What will be will be. But whatever happens from here on in, this has been yet another successful season.

[Post edited 2 May 2021 3:06]

	Swansea Independent Poster of the Year 2021 and 2022.
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So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 19:24 - May 8 with 902 views

Dr_Parnassus

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 19:23 - May 8 by 9MilesHigh
Twenty past five!!!! In the AM!!! Off his tits!!

Twenty past 4 and loving it.

	Swansea Independent Poster of the Year 2021 and 2022.
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So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 19:25 - May 8 with 896 views

9MilesHigh

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 19:22 - May 8 by Dr_Parnassus
Yes, I am so mad that people think mathematical principles are wrong. I am about as mad as when I hear someone say the earth is flat. It’s highly amusing.

Mathematical principles are fine, it's just your figures that are out. Oh, and your algorithms where you catered for every eventuality of course.

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 19:26 - May 8 with 887 views

Dr_Parnassus

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 19:25 - May 8 by 9MilesHigh
Mathematical principles are fine, it's just your figures that are out. Oh, and your algorithms where you catered for every eventuality of course.

Which figures are out?

The figures are based on those exact mathematical principles that have been tested over decades.

Happy for you to put some figures forward. I’ll take a look.

	Swansea Independent Poster of the Year 2021 and 2022.
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So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 19:26 - May 8 with 874 views

onehunglow

Is this a valley thing .

It seems like a meeting of Koch wavers

It s ok to be gentle

Poll:

Christmas. Enjoyable or not

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 19:26 - May 8 with 885 views

9MilesHigh

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 19:24 - May 8 by Dr_Parnassus
Twenty past 4 and loving it.

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 19:27 - May 8 with 881 views

34dfgdf54

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 19:26 - May 8 by Dr_Parnassus
Which figures are out? The figures are based on those exact mathematical principles that have been tested over decades. Happy for you to put some figures forward. I’ll take a look.

I’d assume the algorithm which took everything into account, and ended up being wrong.

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 19:28 - May 8 with 875 views

9MilesHigh

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 19:26 - May 8 by Dr_Parnassus
Which figures are out? The figures are based on those exact mathematical principles that have been tested over decades. Happy for you to put some figures forward. I’ll take a look.

Where did you get the figures from Adam?

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 19:30 - May 8 with 866 views

Dr_Parnassus

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 19:28 - May 8 by 9MilesHigh
Where did you get the figures from Adam?

That’s the market, the market that has proven correct year after year for decades Christopher.

What are your figures out of interest? I’ll take a look.

	Swansea Independent Poster of the Year 2021 and 2022.
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So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 19:33 - May 8 with 863 views

Dr_Parnassus

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 19:27 - May 8 by 34dfgdf54
I’d assume the algorithm which took everything into account, and ended up being wrong.

How did it end up being wrong? It was correct, there is nothing that can change that.

Again; if I tossed a coin and the algorithm correctly states it has an even chance of being heads and tails... yet it’s tails 3 times in a row.

Are you suggesting the algorithm is incorrect?

(Please think before you answer, as much as I’d love you to say “yes”, I’m not that cruel for you to want to make such an error).

	Swansea Independent Poster of the Year 2021 and 2022.
Poll:	Would you swap Ayew for Piroe?

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 19:35 - May 8 with 837 views

onehunglow

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 19:33 - May 8 by Dr_Parnassus

Is this what happens when Valley boys fall out

It’s hilarious mun.

You should have a straightener even if it’s a virtual one

Poll:

Christmas. Enjoyable or not

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 19:37 - May 8 with 844 views

9MilesHigh

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 19:30 - May 8 by Dr_Parnassus
That’s the market, the market that has proven correct year after year for decades Christopher. What are your figures out of interest? I’ll take a look.

The market ie punter pumping money into football bets?

That's the betting market.

Huge flaw in your calculations which will make your overall probabilities out.

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 19:38 - May 8 with 842 views

9MilesHigh

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 19:30 - May 8 by Dr_Parnassus
That’s the market, the market that has proven correct year after year for decades Christopher. What are your figures out of interest? I’ll take a look.

A market doesn't prove itself correct or otherwise. It's not an exact science, it's a, errr, market.

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 19:41 - May 8 with 837 views

Dr_Parnassus

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 19:37 - May 8 by 9MilesHigh
The market ie punter pumping money into football bets? That's the betting market. Huge flaw in your calculations which will make your overall probabilities out.

No, the market is largely driven by bots. Punters then take those prices.

At those prices you will find that whatever the market bets to % wise will be the % profit that market will make over a large sample size, it is that very reason we know it’s accurate and why the industry is a trillion dollar entity.

But aye, you reckon it’s wrong.

Stick yer numbers forward or stop being so silly. You are wasting your life, when was that word you had with yourself out of interest? It seems your obsession with me is pulling you right back in.

Welcome.

	Swansea Independent Poster of the Year 2021 and 2022.
Poll:	Would you swap Ayew for Piroe?

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 19:41 - May 8 with 834 views

Dr_Parnassus

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 19:38 - May 8 by 9MilesHigh
A market doesn't prove itself correct or otherwise. It's not an exact science, it's a, errr, market.

Yes it does.

That simple.

	Swansea Independent Poster of the Year 2021 and 2022.
Poll:	Would you swap Ayew for Piroe?

-1

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 19:42 - May 8 with 831 views

34dfgdf54

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 19:33 - May 8 by Dr_Parnassus

Bad wording on my part I do apologise. I know I said earlier I wouldn’t bang the same drum but I can’t help it.

“So it’s Bournemouth”
“You are at my church now, behave”
“I am the industry”

Barnsley

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 19:42 - May 8 with 828 views

Dr_Parnassus

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 19:42 - May 8 by 34dfgdf54
Bad wording on my part I do apologise. I know I said earlier I wouldn’t bang the same drum but I can’t help it. “So it’s Bournemouth” “You are at my church now, behave” “I am the industry” Barnsley

All statements correct.

Thanks ðŸ™

	Swansea Independent Poster of the Year 2021 and 2022.
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So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 19:50 - May 8 with 812 views

9MilesHigh

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 19:41 - May 8 by Dr_Parnassus

What you are babbling on about is completely irrelevant to what you are trying to prove.

We get it you think you are a big shot in the betting world (you're not)

We get it that computers make bookies unbeatable

What we don't get is your amateur hour giving the probabilities of us playing one team over another 6 days before the actual event.

You took a punt it would be Bournemouth, you backed the favourite as would a lot of punters.

The fave didn't win. The market didn't win or lose and it wasn't correct, it's just a transient vessel offering prices and opportunities.

The correct thing to do would have been to have written an article highlighting the fact that it is more likely we would play Bournemouth and given your little assessment of that and also one for Barnsley, and that even though that scenario was less likely, it was still very much a possibility, and then give your clown assessment on that.

ps are you still staring at screens watching who places what on Tijuana and other obscure leagues? They cant like you much in LC.

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 19:55 - May 8 with 804 views

Dr_Parnassus

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 19:50 - May 8 by 9MilesHigh

No babbling here, one industry expert talking to someone without a clue and trying as best I can to educate them in a way they would understand.

I didn’t back anyone. I literally gave you the probabilities of playing each complete with bite size breakdown of how. That wasn’t a prediction, that wasn’t an opinion - it was a factual statement. The market was, is and always will be correct as proven week after week, year after year and decade after decade. Accurate to the nearest 0.65% in fact.

I used to trade all football matches Christopher, from Tijuana to Tottenham Hotspur, from Redcliffe to Real Madrid.

Don’t be too upset now.

Ps... did you just admit we had more chance of playing Bournemouth? Interesting.

[Post edited 8 May 2021 20:00]

	Swansea Independent Poster of the Year 2021 and 2022.
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So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 20:01 - May 8 with 793 views

9MilesHigh

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 19:55 - May 8 by Dr_Parnassus

[Post edited 8 May 2021 20:00]

But you used a market (betting odds) not actual footballing statistics in your calcs?

And you used them six days before the event with no idea of injuries and starting line ups.

A true Mathematician would be laughing at you.

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 20:05 - May 8 with 779 views

Dr_Parnassus

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 20:01 - May 8 by 9MilesHigh
But you used a market (betting odds) not actual footballing statistics in your calcs? And you used them six days before the event with no idea of injuries and starting line ups. A true Mathematician would be laughing at you.

No, the market is driven by an algorithm, it is then gently swayed by weight of cash which is often driven by algorithm driven bots.

The post was time stamped, it was accurate at time of writing (and I’m sure at time of kick off). Trust me, anyone with even the slightest grasp of maths will be biting their lip at some of the comments in this thread... and they wouldn’t be from me.

I think it’s time for another word with yourself, you do too don’t you...

	Swansea Independent Poster of the Year 2021 and 2022.
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So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 20:14 - May 8 with 753 views

9MilesHigh

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 20:05 - May 8 by Dr_Parnassus

No because at the time of writing you or the market would have no idea who the teams would be come matchday.

That market would/could have gone haywire at 11.30am today.

You ain't that good pal.

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 20:15 - May 8 with 748 views

Dr_Parnassus

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 20:14 - May 8 by 9MilesHigh
No because at the time of writing you or the market would have no idea who the teams would be come matchday. That market would/could have gone haywire at 11.30am today. You ain't that good pal.

Jesus, I can’t figure out if you are trolling or not.

I actually suspect you aren’t, which is mind boggling.

I cannot explain it any simpler.

	Swansea Independent Poster of the Year 2021 and 2022.
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So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 20:16 - May 8 with 747 views

34dfgdf54

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 20:14 - May 8 by 9MilesHigh
No because at the time of writing you or the market would have no idea who the teams would be come matchday. That market would/could have gone haywire at 11.30am today. You ain't that good pal.

On page two of this thread:

<< Surely with all teams in the play offs resting players we could see any of the scenarios outlined in equal measure. >>

Algorithm included alll possibilities according to Dr P

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 20:18 - May 8 with 741 views

Dr_Parnassus

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 20:16 - May 8 by 34dfgdf54
On page two of this thread: << Surely with all teams in the play offs resting players we could see any of the scenarios outlined in equal measure. >> Algorithm included alll possibilities according to Dr P

Which parts aren’t you understanding? This is utterly bizarre. I knew you two were obsessing a bit, but this is another level.

Everything I have said here is correct. I stand by absolutely everything.

If you are confused about something then you are welcome to ask me nicely.

	Swansea Independent Poster of the Year 2021 and 2022.
Poll:	Would you swap Ayew for Piroe?

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 20:22 - May 8 with 727 views

34dfgdf54

So it’s Bournemouth... plus we equal 2011 on 20:18 - May 8 by Dr_Parnassus
Which parts aren’t you understanding? This is utterly bizarre. I knew you two were obsessing a bit, but this is another level. Everything I have said here is correct. I stand by absolutely everything. If you are confused about something then you are welcome to ask me nicely.

You can’t include team selections into any “algorithm” a week before the game can you.

Read the thread title

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