QPR return to action against Leeds on Sunday in a Championship that’s suddenly started chucking money around just as Rangers have made a conscious decision to reign it in a bit.
Championship >>> Sunday August 7, 2016 >>> Kick Off — Breakfast time >>> Weather — Still dark probably >>> Loftus Road, London, W12
Hello you.
That’s right we’re back, and thank goodness for that. Watching both my friends painfully struggling to converse with me without the standard opening gambit of "see QPR lost again, did you go?” to guide them was becoming a painful experience.
That said, I can’t say those same pangs and cravings for Saturday afternoons (or Sunday mornings) in Shepherds Bush have been hitting me quite as hard as they usually are by the first week in August. This feels more like Clive sloping back to his wife on Monkey Dust than Bart Simpson flying home from school on his skateboard; more like the Monday grind back to work than the excited bound down the stairs on Christmas morning.
I suspect we’ll be happy to see each other again, but it’ll be the same type of watery smiles exchanged when your dodgy uncle turns up for the first time in six months and deep down you know there’ll be a point later in the evening when he’ll ask you for some more money, rather than the passionate embrace and kissing with tongues of lovers reunited after one of them has been chained to a radiator in Kuwait for the last three months.
Partly that’s the fault of the Euros, which seemed to last as long as a cycle of the Davis Cup in this revised New Labour Sports Day format where football was played for many weeks at a time without anybody being eliminated at all. There’s been a lot of rot talked about how wonderful it was to see the smaller nations like Wales, Iceland and Northern Ireland finally given a chance of tournament football, which ignores the fact Wales, Iceland and Northern Ireland were all good enough in their qualifying groups to get through under the old rules. What the bloating of the finals actually did was provide places to countries nowhere near good enough to be there, and once there offered them the carrot that if they could hold out for a couple of 0-0 draws they’d get through to the knockouts. That was never likely to result in a lot of caution being thrown to the wind, and so the summer nights dragged on with bits of the continent that used to be Russia, might be Russia again soon, or used to be Yugoslavia, grinding their way through by boring an opponent into submission. It got to the stage where I couldn’t even look Rugby Union fans in the face any more. The last thing any of us need after that is more football.
But mainly it’s because I think we’re all coming around to the idea that QPR are in a bit of a tight spot, bless them.
Now there is a school of thought that QPR have picked the wrong time to finally stop the ceaseless charge towards the cliff edge and feed and water the horses. This is expressed frequently on Twitter, where the news that Rangers wouldn’t be matching Brighton and Norwich’s £8m (£8m) bid for Alex Pritchard as "embarrassing” by one correspondent. It’s put forward even more forcefully than that on Instagram and Facebook whenever the club posts anything through the official account — one a site invented primarily for hipsters to take pictures of their food and teenagers to take pictures of their cocks, the other a medium for stalking the holiday photos of girls you fancied at school and post long status updates about how that cow won’t let you see your kids any more, and can’t you just fucking tell.
After all, the Premier League television money has just got rather silly and QPR can ill-afford to be away from it for long. Everybody tips the three relegated teams to bounce straight back every season and it rarely happens. Villa this year still look like a bit of a car crash to me, but when you see them spending £12m on 30-something Ross McCormack, Norwich spending their aforementioned £8m on a player with four Premier League sub appearances to his name, and Newcastle spending £22m on Matt Ritchie and Dwight Gayle alone it’s becoming clear that the sides coming down from the Premier League are going to be advantaged at this level like never before. If not completely closed, the shop is not going to be operating convenient opening times.
Rangers will also be two thirds of the way through their parachute payments by the end of this season, and they’re reducing in amount by somewhere in the region of £5m each time. We have an £18m advantage on the likes of Leeds, Derby, Brighton and Sheff Wed this season that just won’t be there the summer after next. Even if we were to go up, buy nobody, bank all the money (not that QPR would ever possibly be disciplined enough to do that) and come straight back we’d be in relatively great shape, as Burnley found last season having done exactly that. Two years down the line, with no parachute payments, and a tiny stadium, with the new Premier League TV money handing the bottom three teams in that division £100m and three hefty parachute payments, a promotion push will be a big ask.
So do something. Tony Fernandes and the Tune Group certainly have it within themselves to go out this summer and furnish the squad with two £10m strikers and two £6m wingers. In 2013/14 they allowed Harry Redknapp to spend £8m on Charlie Austin and Matt Phillips, and make frequent, expensive additions to the squad there after, and run a wage bill of £80m across the season.
The problem with this argument is twofold. Firstly, it doesn’t fucking work at QPR. For all that money spent since 2011 QPR have been relegated twice, made no improvements to their infrastructure, made no improvements to the team, provided us with two fairly humiliating Premier League campaigns and made multi-millionaires of scores of obnoxious, mediocre footballers. QPR spending big money on big players has not worked, does not work and will not work. Anybody who still cannot see this deserves copies of the 2012/13 and 2014/15 season review DVDs shoving so far up their arse that their farts start to sound like Tony Incenzo’s commentary.
Secondly, 2016/17 probably isn’t the year to be sticking it all on red in the Championship.
Now, everybody says the Championship is difficult at this time every year. In actual fact, for the last several years, it’s been a load of mediocre dross. When you consider that in 2011 our team with Adel Taarabt, Wayne Routledge, Heidar Helguson, Shaun Derry and several others playing out of their skin beat a chasing pack that included Ashley Williams, Joe Allen, Scott Sinclair, Brendan Rodgers, Grant Holt, Craig Bellamy and others to promotion it makes you realise just how mediocre 2015/16 was when you look at that dreadful Hull City side that went up last season. The only difficult thing about the last few Championships has been a fixture list requiring you to play every day. Sometimes twice.
This year though, looks different. In addition to the relegated teams already discussed, several clubs with far bigger fan bases, far better infrastructure and far larger prospects than QPR seem to be getting their act together after several years building towards it. Sheffield Wednesday stand the best chance of rivalling Newcastle and Norwich in my opinion, Derby’s annual choke could be soothed by the fear of what Nigel Pearson might do to them if they do it again, Brighton have added Glenn Murray to a team that went close last season. Who’s to say that even if QPR did go out and buy two £10m strikers and two £6m wingers it would be enough to get them up ahead of that lot? If it didn’t, the club would approach its last year of parachute payments unable to buy any players at all because of a transfer embargo.
In addition, it’s hardly likely to aid an ongoing legal battle over the last time we came down and completely ignored the FFP regulations. Lee Hoos said QPR got under the FFP line last season, and he was surprised they did so. That was achieved with the maximum parachute payment, the Charlie Austin sale, and £10m from the Raheem Sterling sale. That’s £20m right there that isn’t in this season’s budget as we try and make the limits again from our 18,000 capacity stadium. It’s not embarrassing that QPR didn’t match Norwich’s bid for Pritchard, it’s embarrassing that anybody reasonably thinks they could/should.
Given all that, QPR have had a good summer. In the current market, signing Joel Lynch, Jake Bidwell and Jordan Cousins for the money we got them for is outstanding. Our visitors on Sunday, Leeds, paid £3m for Kemar Roofe, who looked terrific at Oxford last season but is still a player coming up out of League Two. The pre-season has looked better organised and more structured than it has for many years and the training has been more punishing than it ever has been before.
In the circumstances QPR find themselves in the best we can hope for is to work hard, get organised and give it our best shot and it feels like we’re making a reasonable fist of that. Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink used the word "competitive” or "competition” a dozen times in a five minute press conference yesterday morning.
We the fans need to get our head around all of this, or risk making it more difficult still.
Links >>> Wilkins’ first game in charge — History >>> Bank on Cousins — Betting >>> Lunch ticket — Opposition Profile >>> Monk in the mad house — Interview >>> Langford gets Leeds date — Referee >>> No Polter No Party — Podcast >>> It is what it is — Presser
Gerry Francis’ early QPR side put champions-elect Leeds to the sword on this ground in 1992, recovering from an early Gary Speed goal to win 4-1 in fantastic style.
Team News: QPR are missing summer signing Ariel Borysiuk who injured his ankle in training in July. The Pole will return to light running on Monday, ahead of the original six week schedule that was laid out when he did the injury, so a quicker than anticipated return looks on the cards.
Leeds players have expressed concern about the Zika virus and are seeking assurances before travelling this far south. Assuming those are allayed, Charlie Taylor will be forced onto the bus against his will after having a transfer request turned down, and Robert Green will make his first start for his new club against the one he left in the summer — no doubt with a miraculously improved kicking game and command of his area.
Elsewhere: Round one of 2,365 of the 2016.17 Championship and we’re starting how we mean to go on — random kick off times that pay scant regard to the effect on the away support, and Newcastle and Leeds on the television every week.
The Sports Direct Advertising Hoarding start their season on a Friday night, as far away from home as it’s possible for them to get this season with a soiree at Tarquin and Rupert’s. Trouble on the forex front and all that coke London’s upper classes like to hoover up after supper has the boys falling on hard times, with Ross McCormack and Moussa Dembele sold from last season’s squad which nearly went down anyway. Do away trips to Port Vale beckon for our brave neighbours?
The game of the weekend is at the other end of the list, on Sunday afternoon, with the Sheffield Owls hosting the Aston Train Wreck at Hillsborough. Roberto Di Matteo looks like he’s got all on to turn around last season’s catastrophe at Villa Park and he couldn’t have a much tougher start than away to the team that look best placed to challenge Mike Ashley’s sweat shop at the top of the table this season.
The other potential challengers are graced with Saturday 15.00 kick offs, the lucky swines, and that includes The Carrott Crunchers, fresh from pinching £8m Alex Pritchard off Brighton’s toes, away at The Mad Chicken Farmers who, like Fulham, look like a decent relegation bet this season in my opinion. The Derby Sheep’s annual choke is becoming nearly as amusing as Cardiff’s used to be, but with Nigel Pearson in charge — a man who once fought off wild dogs on a "holiday” to Romania — they’ll be confident ahead of their opener against a strong Brighton side.
There’s romance in the air as the Nottingham Trees host Nigel Clough’s Burton Albion on day one, but both teams are likely to struggle. Armand Traore, three year deal safely pouched, has declared himself injury and unavailable for this one. We’ll keep a weathered eye on his minutes this season for you. So far, zero minutes.
Rotherham, also facing their usual struggle, host Wolves, the latest club furnished with a rich idiot, as the Walter Zenga era begins in earnest. Literally anything could happen there. Barnsley, newly promoted, go to dark horses Ipswich while Bristol City are first to suffer that fucking Will Grigg song after Wigan’s elevation. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Waitrose struggle this year, with Jaap Staam’s lack of supermarket management experience and a talent drain from the staff in evidence, and they start at home to Preston.
Birmingham v Cardiff and Huddersfield v Brentford already have a sort of ‘why bother?’ look about them.
Only 45 more games to go kids.
Referee: Oliver Langford is the referee for this one, an experienced Championship official known for his leniency. Famous last words. Also, as one Twitter correspondent pointed out, a fair spit of former Leeds manager Simon Grayson. Hopefully he’s still bitter. Anyway, stats and QPR case file available here.
QPR: QPR were the most mediocre midtable team in the history of midtable mediocrity last season. Finishing twelfth out of 24 they won 10, drew nine and lost four at home; won four, drew nine and lost 10 away; scored 54 goals and conceded 54 goals. Forest, Hull, Fulham and Boro were the four teams to win in W12 last season, though the R’s finished with one defeat from their final seven on their own patch and won five of those conceding only once. The pre-season results have shown a penchant for low scoring draws with a 1-0 win against PSV and 3-1 loss to Groningen in Holland followed up with stalemates against Northampton (1-1), Wycombe (0-0) and Burton (1-1) before last weekend’s impressive 2-0 home win against Premier League side Watford.
Leeds: Quite how relevant Leeds’ 2015/16 form is given the changes that have happened over the summer I’m not sure, but here it is anyway. They finished one place and one point below QPR with seven wins, eight draws and eight defeats at home; seven wins, nine draws and seven defeats on the road. Those away wins came at Derby, MK Dons, Huddersfield, Wolves, Cardiff, Blackburn and Birmingham,. They finished the season unbeaten in their final three road trips, though two of those were draws. In pre-season they beat Shelbourne (2-1) and Shamrock Rovers (3-0) in Ireland before recovering from 3-0 down to win 4-3 at non-league neighbours Guiseley. They then lost 2-1 at League One Peterborough, and beat Italian side Atalanta 2-1 at home. The 96 yellow cards picked up by Leeds last year was the most in the division — if you will leave Steve Evans in charge…
Betting: Our tame professional odds compiler Alex Rowe offers the following advice…
"It doesn’t seem five minutes since Karl Henry was curling one into the top corner against Bristol City to end a thoroughly under-whelming season but yes its August and we’re back for more.
"The Championship ante-post odds, more than ever before, reflect the transfer market. Newcastle 15/8, Villa 9/1 and Norwich 9/1 are the division' s three biggest spenders and they head the outright market. It's tough to disagree.
"QPR-wise, last year’s mid-table finish and sensible transfer business during the summer means the markets are expecting more of the same: 40/1 to win the League, 10/1 for promotion and 12/1 relegation. In my opinion they are a fair reflection of where the club is this season. The necessary cost cutting and the prudent arrivals this summer all feel like we’re working towards being a stable club again.
"With the budget given, if Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink has us in the hunt for the top six finish (4/1) come March / April he’ll have done very well. The sooner the wider fan base realise this the sooner we’ll be back to where we all want to be.
"The match odds for Sunday see QPR 6/5, Leeds 11/4 and the draw 23/10. Both teams to score Yes 10/11 with No 4/5. Over 2.5 goals 5/4 and Under 4/6
"As is often the case opening weekend, away managers will snap you’re hand off for a draw and home managers will be desperate to avoid defeat. I'm expecting Hasselbaink and Garry Monk to be no different which leads me to backing the Half Time draw at 11/10.
"At a more attractive price, Jordan Cousins has impressed in pre-season and 25/1 with Bet Victor to be Man Of the Match looks worthy of a few quid. If you’re in agreement and expect a cagey affair he could well be the eye catcher on his debut.”
Predictions: Newly crowned Prediction League champion Dylan Pressman tells us...
"I'm gonna start the year off with sweetness and light. I'm predicting QPR will feed off the confidence from the Watford victory, passing the ball around nicely when in attack and playing high temp game when in defence. The boys will be too much for Leeds and roll out 2-0 winners, with Seb Polter demonstrating his silky smooth skills in front of goal with a first half header."
Dylan's Prediction: QPR 2-0 Leeds. Scorer - Seb Polter
LFW’s Prediction: QPR 0-0 Leeds. No Scorer.
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