The visit of Blackburn Rovers to Loftus Road on Saturday represents the end of QPR’s ‘easy’ start to life back in the Premiership ahead of a daunting looking set of games over the next month or so.
Barclays Premier League >>> Saturday October 15, 2011 >>> Kick Off 3pm >>> Loftus Road, London, W12
Had QPR picked their own fixtures to start the season themselves it’s unlikely they would have looked very different to the first eight games they were subsequently presented with. One mediocre mid-table side or relegation candidate after another right through until the middle of October – an ideal chance to put points on the board nice and early. It was the footballing equivalent of that first day on a course where the group leader sits you in a circle and asks everybody to say their name and one interesting thing about them while throwing a sponge football around. A gentle induction.
The question now is whether QPR have done enough with that start which clearly ends this Saturday after the visit of second from bottom Blackburn Rovers. Starting next week with Chelsea, QPR face six of the likely top eight in eight games. Chelsea’s visit to W12 is followed swiftly by a trip to Tottenham, a home game with Man City, a trip up to Stoke, some brief respite with games against Norwich and West Brom and then consecutive games against Liverpool and Man Utd. Sadly this daunting run is also repeated through April at a time when we really could be desperate for points.
The trick was always going to be making the most of the ‘easier’ games and I think I said in the summer that by the time we’d played Blackburn we ideally needed to have 12 points on the board. We’ll fall one short, even if we do win here.
The problem is even those gentle sponge ball throwing introductions aren’t quite as easy as they seem. Sitting here now in the peace and quiet of LFW Towers I can think of lots of interesting things about my life – the time I was accosted by the anti-terror police while trying to cross the runway at Heathrow Airport at 3am, the time I got to number 17 in the charts with a mash up of Pink Floyd’s Another Brick in the Wall and Baggy Trousers by Madness sung with Jive Bunny, the fact that I want to own a pub someday called the Delicate Susan because my grandfather once staggered past a Delicatessen and said “Delicate Susan’s a funny name for a pub.” But when somebody throws a sponge football at you in front of 15 other people and says “tell us something interesting about yourself” all I can ever think of to say is “I pride myself on being able to book any train journey to anywhere in the country for less than £30.” There’s no wonder I didn’t get much sex at university.
QPR have found their gentle induction similarly tough. They’ve turned in performances against Bolton, Wigan and Fulham worthy of a team that’s going to finish bottom of the league but against Newcastle and Wolves Rangers looked like a side with potential to make a surprise European push. Overall, we haven’t made the most of the opportunity we’ve been given. We wasted the Wigan match, we were conned against Villa and Newcastle should have been well beaten.
For some this makes this weekend’s game against Blackburn some sort of defining moment. A 38 game season is not decided by one result eight matches into it – we will not definitely be relegated if we lose this match, it’s not the biggest match we’ve ever played, it’s not the be-all and end-all for our hopes this season. It’s just very important.
We’d have to be very poor and very unlucky to take absolutely no points at all from 12 matches with the Manchester clubs, Liverpool, Chelsea, Spurs and Arsenal this season – we’ll get one or two I’m sure. Similarly this horrible run of fixtures we’re about to go on does actually include games against West Brom, Norwich and then Sunderland and Swansea. Even the matches against Stoke and Spurs, while difficult, aren’t exactly away games against the Real Madrid side of 1960 and should not be given up as lost causes.
We have a starting 11 that can compete now. My concern with that, and the importance some seem to be putting on Saturday’s game, is it raises expectation. Make no mistake we’re going to suffer some defeats over the next few weeks, probably big ones, and we absolutely have to stick with our team. That will be especially key tomorrow where, if Blackburn play anything like they did against Fulham, patience and persistence will be the key to victory. I’d hate to think that the new signings we have made will inadvertently shorten tempers and patience among the QPR fan base, returning us to the days of booing the team off at half time if we’re not winning. Let’s roar our team onto victory tomorrow.
Links >>> Opposition Focus >>> Fixture History >>> Referee >>> Tube Closures
Team News: Danny Gabbidon is the big miss for QPR, he continues to struggle with a knee injury suffered at Wolves and therefore Fitz Hall will continue to partner Anton Ferdinand at the heart of the defence. That’s because Neil Warnock doesn’t rate Bruno Perone and Matthew Connolly is also struggling with an ankle injury. Armand Traore does return from his one match ban though and he will slot back into the left back spot with Luke Young moving to the right and Bradley Orr dropping out of the side. Further forward Warnock is trying to accommodate DJ Campbell from the start which could see Shaun Derry dropped and Joey Barton moved back, or Adel Taarabt left out.
Jason Puncheon seems as far away as ever from his first start for Rangers though. Puncheon has played mainly for the reserves since he was signed on loan from Southampton on transfer deadline day. Neil Warnock told the Fulham Chronicle: “Jason’s working hard but he hasn’t had many matches," said the manager. "He’s got a difficult job with Shaun Wright-Phillips there and Jamie Mackie coming back. He’s really got to force his way into my thoughts. At the deadline I thought he was worth a gamble until Christmas.”
Blackburn have doubts over a number of senior players. Midfield playmaker David Dunn has had an injection into his calf injury and will undergo a late fitness test to decide whether the complaint has settled down enough for him to take part. Centre back Ryan Nelson (knee) is definitely unavailable. David Goodwillie has returned from Scotland’s two away matches last week with food poisoning and Morten Gamst Pederson has a hamstring injury.
Manager Steve Kean told the Lancashire Telegraph: “It will be good when we can get the experienced lads back but when players drop out there is the chance for others to impress. QPR will be out to make up for their heavy defeat last time out and we know it will be a tough game, but we go there with confidence."
Elsewhere: The game of the weekend stands out from the fixture list like a sore thumb. Roy Evans may believe his former club have a chance of winning the title this season but if Liverpool lose the televised Saturday match against Man Utd at Anfield they will already be nine points behind the early pace setters. All eyes, and cameras, on Wayne Rooney no doubt. Chelsea v Everton is the ESPN Saturday evening game with five games wedged in between at 3pm. That includes the clash of the other newly promoted sides as Swansea travel to Norwich and an early six pointer for Wigan and Bolton who are separated by only a few miles geographically, and just two points in the bottom three. On Sunday it’s the Black Country derby as Wolves travel to West Brom. Strangely Sky have gone for the much more mundane prospects of Arsenal v Sunderland and Newcastle v Spurs for their “Super” Sunday.
Referee: There cannot be another referee in the history of the game who has presided over two QPR promotions and a semi-final victory apart from Mark Clattenburg. He was a promising young Football League official when he was put in charge of our memorable 1-0 play-off semi final win against Oldham at Loftus Road in 2003. It seemed mere coincidence when, a year later, he was back with Rangers as they won 3-1 at Hillsborough to seal promotion into the Championship. But it started to get a little spooky when he turned up in W12 again on the last day of last season for our home game with Leeds when the verdict from the FA rendered the game meaningless and QPR champions. He’s never really given QPR any controversial decisions in those games, although he sent Oldham’s Wayne Andrews off and did likewise with Radoslaw Majewski in last season’s home game with Forest, but he does seem to be something of a lucky omen for us. Famous last words. Full case file.
QPR: Rangers’ home form is starting to cause concern. They are without a win at Loftus Road in seven attempts stretching back to April when they beat Sheffield United 3-0. Since then Leeds, Bolton and Rochdale have won here, Derby, Hull, Newcastle and Villa have escaped with draws. In addition, QPR have only scored once in four home matches this season and that was a last minute own goal by Aston Villa’s Richard Dunne. The 6-0 hammering at Fulham was the third heaviest top flight defeat ever suffered by Rangers following an 8-1 defeat to Man Utd in 1969 and 7-1 at Sheff Wed in 1987. In theory lowly Blackburn are ideal cannon fodder to get over that and get a home win under our belts but Rangers have only won one of the last 11 meetings and have failed to score in ten of the last 14 matches against them. Poor Jay Bothroyd is now 13 matches without a goal, his worst personal run of form for six years.
Blackburn: Rovers are in the midst of their worst start to a league season since 1951. They have won only once, against Arsenal, in seven league matches this season and currently sit second bottom of the table. They have already conceded 17 goals (they’d shipped eight at this point last season) and 12 of those have been in the last four matches. Since Steve Kean succeeded Sam Allardyce at Ewood Park he has won just six of his 28 games in charge and averages less than a point a game as a manager. Kean has only won two of his 14 away league matches since taking over – at Wolves and West Brom last season. They have also conceded the most fouls, 96, of any top flight side this season. Goalkeeper Paul Robinson has the worst goals to shot ratio in the Premiership – stopping just 50% of the on target shots he has faced.
Betting: Professional odds compiler Owen Goulding kept up his record prior to Fulham byt backing Southend to beat Shrewsbury, a third correct prediction in as many weeks. He did have QPR down for a draw at Craven Cottage though. His thoughts this week are… Well, it seems a while ago now but when I landed in Ibiza a couple of Sunday's ago and, anxious to find out the score, got a text from my Luton supporting brother gloating that QPR had conceded six in a top flight match. I was a bit shocked, I quickly sent one back reminding him that last time Luton conceded six in the top flight they were so bad even Paul Parker scored, and was then left to enjoy my break. Football throws up results like these now and again and it is easy to have knee jerk reactions to them. However, experience has taught me where betting is concerned, these 'blips' are to be noted, but not reacted upon. Fulham played well, whilst we were defensively terrible. This weekend gives the players the chance to put that right, and who better to face than against a team whose manager is about as popular as the decision was to play George Santos as a forward.
QPR are a shades of odds-on here and that seems about right to me. Blackburn won’t want to lose, and QPR will be desperate to win. Personally I think I would be favouring QPR slightly but the prices reflect this so I am looking at the goal scorer market for some value this week. There is no doubt we have looked a little suspect from set-pieces so far this season, and this week we come up against one of, if not the, best attacker of the ball in the Premiership. I hope I am wrong, but I see massive value in Unibet's 14/1 for Chris Samba to score at anytime this weekend. Let’s just hope some of our players put their shooting boots on as well.
Bet of weekend - Chris Samba to score anytime, 14/1 with Unibet.
Prediction: Neil Warnock believes we’re in for an open and attacking game tomorrow, I couldn’t disagree more. I envisage a repeat of our home game with Newcastle here where any meagre ambitions Blackburn may have to play for more than a point quickly melt into a backs to the wall effort that QPR must find a way of breaking down. I’d like to see DJ Campbell start this game, possibly instead of Shaun Derry, and Rangers really go for the jugular. I think we’ll win (groan) but I think it’s going to be as tight as a mouse’s ear with a single goal, probably scored quite late, deciding it on a tense afternoon.
QPR win 1-0, 7/1 with Unibet. Draw half time/QPR full time 4/1 with Coral.
Fitz Hall injury sweepstake guess – 27th minute. Play Fitz Hall injury sweepstake every Friday by Tweeting your guess to @loftforwords.