The Season's Verdict - Full Backs Friday, 11th May 2012 09:19
Saints used four full backs on a regular basis, in the second of our season's verdict articles we look at each of the quartet and analyse their contribution to the season and the defence in general.
The one thing that becomes clear from looking at the seasons statistics is how integral the full backs are in providing goals for the team, Saints scored 85 goals in the Championship, of which 76 have been assited (Im assuming that the other 9 were either penalties of the stats people have added up wrongly) of that total 23 were provided by the full backs,for save you doing the maths, almost a third of all assists were from this area with Danny Fox leading the way with 11 from 37(4) appearances, Fraser Richardson with 10 from 33(1) and Danny Butterfield with 2 from 9(1), Dan Harding didnt have a single assist from 12(8) games. Only Rickie Lambert had more assists with only Adam Lallana also getting into double figures with 10, for the record Gult Du Prado had 7, most in the first half of the season like his goals, before certain sections of the crowd started to crucify him.
Undoubtably in the way Saints played it was the job of the full backs to push into space created by the midfield and get the ball into the box, the contrast came from the fact that in Richardson and Harding you had players that would look to get down to the byeline and deliver whilst Fox and Butterfield preferred to remain deeper.
These stats show why I felt a long time ago that Dan Harding needed replacing if Nigel Harding was going to have his team set up in a certain way then he needed the players to deliver, in 2010/11 Harding contributed 2 assists and the season before only 1, Adkins being a footballing scholar would have realised that whilst some players look better than others on a pitch, at the end of the day it is about end product and Harding who the fans perceived as an attacking full back who got down the line and got in crosses, wasnt exactly delivering any that created any goals, the manager made a key decision in signing Fox before the transfer window closed.
Usually when you rely on your full backs to attack, it comes at a price defensively, that is inevitable, both flanks were bound to get exposed at certain stages of games, but as Saints defence waivered in the final quarter of the season, in the main the goals conceded didnt come from down the flanks but from sides attacking us down the middle, of course against Reading Danny Fox gave the ball away cheaply and then got torn down the left to allow in a cross for the opening goal, but the other two goals were from poor play in the centre of defence and midfield, a glance at other games where goals were conceded showed a similar story, in the main the opposition got little change from attacking the flanks, the goals were scored by running at our centre think Blackpool away or pompey's first goal or pumping balls into the box that werent dealt with and the ball banged back in with a vengeance, think Pompey's second or Boro's first.
Nigel Adkins has to be given great credit for the way in which he not only utiilised the full backs as an attacking and creative force, but in the way he realised last summer that he didnt have the men at the club to deliver and needed to bring in replacements, that was harsh on Danny Butterfield who to be fair let no one down last season or even this, but Adkins knew he needed just a little more attacking edge, on the left it was a little easier, some people think I am biased against Harding, nothing could be further from the truth, I just saw things in the same way as our manager, if Saints were to play in the way he wanted, he needed a left back who could create far more than the 3 assists in 77(1) games that Harding had managed in his first two seasons with the club, its not rocket science and whilst football is of course a game of passion and statistics cant tell the full story of a game, they are still a pretty good indication of whats going right or wrong in a team, a centre forward is judged by the goals he scores and creates and that is no less the case in an attacking full back.
Some of you will remember how a year or so ago I espoused the theories set out originally in the book Moneyball and then later Soccernomics, whilst some may sneer, Nigel Adkins clearly isnt one of those and thank goodness for that as ultimately it has helped him improve our team to such a great extent that we won promotion.
So in the main the verdict on the full backs is positive, none of the four who regularly filled the positions let us down, Fox and Richardson were outstanding in how they created an essential ingredient to the team that had been lacking and Harding and Butterfield contributed when called upon.
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andywelsh added 10:24 - May 11
The problem next season is going to be that, although they are good coming forward none of our full backs have the genuine pace required to get back and defend when we lose the ball. I don't think replacing the full backs is the answer, but it will surely require a couple of players who do have real pace coming into the team or alternatively a root change to the way we play. Interesting problem for Adkins, but as you say he seems to be very aware of what needs to be improved and this will be a key area for him to address. | | |
SonicBoom added 10:30 - May 11
About right I think Nick. Agree on Harding etc. I just can't stand the concept of "assists". Assists are from US sports and I'm not sure they are a reliable measure of anything. If I smash the ball down the pitch and it hits Ricky on the head that's an assist. The final pass before a goal is scored is not always the decisive one and the reason the goal was created. Can be a misleading stat. | | |
Fordy added 10:36 - May 11
I was surprised when Richardson lost his place at the end of the season and I would like to see him back in next year. Particularly with a player like Chaplow on the right who is always coming inside it leaves plenty of room to run into yet Butterfield rarely ventures into the final third. As for Harding, we know you're not his biggest fans, but it is a bit harsh just mentioning his lack of assists when he has scored more than the other three put together. | | |
geezershoong added 10:41 - May 11
Unless your going to include 'defensive stats' like tackles won etc then you've only looked at half the picture - after all they are there to defend also & pointing out individual goals from individual games does the defenders a disservice. We have relied on full backs to start a lot of attacking play but you have to include the defensive stats as well, surely. At home we conceded 18 goals, the same as Reading, the league winners. Only Birmingham can boast better - 14. Away we conceded 28, without working it out I would say the average is 35ish. Four other teams only did better than that. | | |
SaintNick added 10:59 - May 11
Assists isnt the be all and end all I agree, but it is still a good barometer of how much a player is contributing to the team, of course the odd smashed ball up field will result in a goal, sorry if I forgot to mention Harding's goals four in 100 appearances, I can only guess that as 3 were scored before Adkins arrived he didnt know how prolific Harding was before replacing him ( I am tongue in cheek here lol) Un fortunately I havent got the tackles won stats etc to hand, so i cant be exact, but i do feel that I have given a [pretty comprehensive verdict on the full backs and backed up my opinions with evidence If Saints conceded 46 goals then here is a quick stat for you, after Fox arrived at the club in his first three games he sat on the bench and Harding played, in those games we conceded five goals, all whilst Fox was not on the pitch, that perhaps old Adkins something. It seems for some although its in Adkins we trust, but not quite everything if it involves a favourite lol | | |
Fordy added 11:26 - May 11
Four goals in 100 appearances isn't too bad for a full back. But it shows that Harding gets a lot further forward than the others who very rarely get in goalscoring positions. Richardson occasionally takes a shot that goes flying over the bar, but you never see the others in the penalty area like you do with Harding. | | |
Fordy added 11:26 - May 11
Four goals in 100 appearances isn't too bad for a full back. But it shows that Harding gets a lot further forward than the others who very rarely get in goalscoring positions. Richardson occasionally takes a shot that goes flying over the bar, but you never see the others in the penalty area like you do with Harding. | | |
BlackRod added 12:12 - May 11
We have to be careful that Nigel may use statistics selectively to 'prove' his case. Hence 'forgetting' to include goals scored. I'm not sure if the figures given include minutes on the pitch - if Harding comes on as a sub for the last ten minutes does this count as an appearance? Anyway stats on tackles won etc are readily available online but may not have supported the conclusion. I actually rate Fox higher than Harding, but he is certainly one of the players whose lapses in concentration have cost us goals. That's not mentioned either - except for the Reading game. | | |
bstokesaint added 12:16 - May 11
Yeah, I agree the attacking stats only don't show the full picture. For me Richardson is by far the best full back we have. His crossing ability is as good as Fox's if not better, and is more consistent. He has more pace on that right side than Butterfield, who's crossing is very hit and miss. On his day Fox is a useful player, but there were a few games recently where he was smashing the ball straight out of play from crosses and also getting caught in bad defensive positions. For me, although I appreciate his contribution to date, I'm not sure if Harding is going to be good enough for the Premiership. He also hasn't had much chance to prove contrary to this with Fox being the obvious first choice. We need competition next season for Richardson and Fox. We also need full backs with pace because wingers in the Premiership will have bags of pace and skills. I'm not sure what we have in the way of players in the Academy that can play in these postions. We'll be made to look foolish if we don't do something about this. | | |
legod7 added 12:27 - May 11
Don't forget Danny Fox takes the right wing corners when he is playing. Perhaps these are included in the "assists" that you are on about. | | |
grumpyoldsaint added 12:42 - May 11
Matches that come to mind where our fullbacks were given a total runaround were Bristol H&A Blackpool A Burnley A The wingers had pace but were not premier players. Any team playing us will only have to attack with pace down the wings and we will be in all sorts of problems, unless this part of the defence is addressed | | |
Ddobsy added 12:45 - May 11
Our fullbacks are excellent going forward, all four of them. I can't help feeling that they are not good enough defensively when exposed by a narrow diamond midfield. Our away performance continually exposes the fullback and while the "assist" might not come from the wide area, the pressure and territory usually has. Personally I think Fox's positioning lets him down, giving away east areas for the opposition to find a player or get the centre half 1 on 1. | | |
Simo_Saint added 12:55 - May 11
I'm really torn on Fox. His dead balls are exceptional, I'd be interested to see how many of his assists are from set pieces. I can only remember Conventry away and Derby at home where he has set one up from open play, although I'm sure there are 1 or 2 more. I also think that against better defences next season, goals from corners are going to be vital, so Fox could be a key asset. However, defensively he is all over the place. He needs to work on his positioning, and strangely for someone so good at crossing, his passing and distribution generally is poor. I've lots count of the number of times he has tried to spray the ball towards the opposite flank and it's gone wrong, epotimised at home against Reading. While his set pieces will be of extra importance in the big league, his defensive frailties will be exposed more as well. Aside from Lambert, Richardson is my player of the season, all those assists from open play, and often at crucial times in the game. | | |
ItchenNorth added 13:07 - May 11
Harding for the Euros ?! | | |
SaintNick added 13:26 - May 11
It seems like harding should be playing for England, some people just cant see to accept any wrong in him, all they can see is the blonde hair the wrist bands and the flying up the wing, Fordy is right he does get further forward than the others, which only emphasisis that he doesnt deliver much when he gets there, 3 of those four goals were over two years ago | | |
redandwhitedee added 13:32 - May 11
Last season we were expected to attack most teams, and therefore yes, Fox was the right man. But next season we will expect to be on the back-foot most of the time.. and Fox is most definately not the right man for that. He is seriously lacking defensively when only has lallana infront for support. What i could not fathom is that we have two great crossers of the ball.. Fox and Richardson who are both strong going forward, but maybe limited defensively. So why are they never used in left/right midfield roles ? If.. lets say against the top teams (when we are expected to be on the back foot a lot), why not play Harding + Fox on left side, and butterfield + Richardson on right side. They can both overlap, fill-in, cover for each other.. giving us great attacking (assist) options and at the same time a very strong flank defensively. This is assuming no new full-backs are signed - I for one feel we need another left back (I think Bridge could resurrect his career here) and send Luke Shaw out on loan (Stephens, Sinclair, Moore, Chambers & Ward-Prowse too) where we can let them develop for 6-12 months. Also on that note. Bart should be given a new contract but put on loan for a year to rebuild confidence and experience, while we sign another keeper as serious competition for Davis - Robinson, Schmeikel (sp?) or Marshall from Cardiff. | | |
BlackRod added 14:06 - May 11
I've just re-read the third paragraph in Nick's 'analysis' above. I'm sure Nigel Harding would have Dan Harding in his team. Hang on a minute, this is an analysis of the full backs, not the manager! Maybe Nick is preparing us for a shock when he analyses the manager? I reckon Adkins did quite well and just about deserves his chance in the Premier League. | | |
stmichael added 14:16 - May 11
Dan Harding provided plenty of assists . What your report does not allow for is great saves and bad misses. If Dan Fox delivers one good ball that results in a goal and Dan Harding provides 3 in the same game not converted who is the most productive. Oh and dan harding also scores the occassional goal which is surely worth as much probably more than a goal. For what its worth i think Fox is marginally ahead of harding for the left back spot. If Fox had Hardings attitude he would be a much better player. I would keep them both for next season. | | |
SaintNick added 14:31 - May 11
Harding doesnt provide plenty of assists, if a goal isnt scored then it isnt an assist, the team that has the most shots on goal isnt neccessarily the one that scores the most, its all about end product and some on here seem to find it hard to distinguish between flashy play and end product. Yes Harding has got down the wing a lot, yet this didnt result in any assists last season, only two the season before and only one in his first season, now a pattern is emerging here, either Dan Harding is the unluckiest man in football in that he is creating all these glorious chances for people and they arent converting them, or to be frank he just isnt delivering. Someone mentioned his goalscoring record, yes four in three seasons is about average for a full back, however only one of those has come in the last two seasons, tells you something I think we all know the answer to that which is why Adkins signed Fox, many of you told me that Fox was here to put pressure on Harding, well we know the answer now, Harding started 12 games last season, five of which were before Fox made a start and three others as an emergency left back, a further two were when Fox was rested for a midweek game. I think this all points to one thing, Harding just isnt good enough, at League 1 he was adequate, nothing more nothing less, he isnt good enough for a top half championship team, so he sure as hell wont be good enough for the premier, its hard for some to grasp for some reason | | |
nobby added 14:35 - May 11
If you don't have the full stats to hand i.e. blocks, interceptions, tackles won etc. then you can't do a proper analysis. It always degenerates in a Fox/Harding debate which started to get boring ages ago. When full back attacks down the flanks it pulls defences out and can result in goals which don't come directly from the fullbacks themselves or in the form of assists, it just gives the attackers more room to create chances. | | |
Whatsforpud added 16:10 - May 11
Full backs are primarily part of the defence. There is very little in this article on how each of them link up with the central defender next to them, or the wide midfield player in front of them. 'Assists', together with 'passes completed' don't show the whole picture. If a full-back centres the ball to ,say Lambert, who decides to lay it off for someone else to score, then the cross presumably is not an assist. Likewise a player can have a high percentage of 'completed passes', but if they are all five-yard sideways ones, it might not mean much. Who said, there are lies, damned lies, and statistics ? | | |
thingummy added 17:41 - May 11
I know its all about the way we play but have to say I think this is an area we have to improve In the last half dozen matches, they all focussed on getting balls inside Fox, adn he dies not get close enough to th eman on the ball. Far too many crosses get past him. Away from home agains thte better sides we got torn to shreds (bora and blackpool in particular). Dan H is just not going to make it at next level up. Fox has got to improve ..... On the right, Richardson is too slow at next level up, which means he will not be able to get up and down the pitch as he did in the championship. Shame because i like him . Danny B not a premierhip player IMO | | |
hortonsaint added 17:45 - May 11
All of our full backs have their own strengths and weaknesses though I would have to say that Harding is the weakest of the four. I'm not a great Fox fan because I think he's very poor if people run at him and doesn't do enough to stop crosses but there's no question that he was an important part of the side last year and is a superior player to Harding. However I can see him struggling next season and agree with a poster who suggested whether he'd suit a midfield role. At RB both players have their strengths and weaknesses, I believe Butterfield is the better player in many ways, being positionally stronger than Richardson and a more accomplished footballer and user of the ball. However Richardson offers more pace if being run at and also going forwards where he can get into dangerous posiitons to cross. I do think Richardson is more prone to errors though and relies on his speed and physicality to cover up some of the weaknesses in his game. Bottom line is all of them would find it tough next year.... | | |
slynch added 20:32 - May 11
I've seen a few games this season and I thought Hooiveld played LB. He's the only one I've ever seen doing any defending there! :-D | | |
OldRed added 23:07 - May 11
Dan Fox has not proved himself to be a great fullback Nick, just a good dead ball specialist. | | |
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Blogs 31 bloggersKnees-up Mother Brown #19 by wessex_exile February, and the U’s enter the most pivotal month of the season. Six games in just four weeks, with four of them against sides also in the bottom six. By March we should be either well clear of danger, or even deeper in the sh*t. With Danny Cowley’s U’s still unbeaten, and looking stronger game on game, I’m sure it’ll be the former, but first we have to do our bit to consign Steve ‘Sour Grapes’ Cotterill’s FGR back to non-league. After our shambolic 5-0 defeat at New Lawn, nothing would give me greater pleasure, even if it meant losing one of my closest awaydays in the process. What’s the excuse going to be today Steve – shocking pitch, faking head injuries, Mexican banditry or some other bit of sour-grapery bullsh*t? Shrewsbury Town Polls |