| The myth of the "38 match season" 20:55 - Feb 6 with 5967 views | Glyn1 |
One of the explanations given for the decision to sack Michael Laudrup was that Swansea’s performance declined drastically over the last year. People have pointed out that over the last 38 games, which both began and ended with an away defeat to West Ham, the record was: played 38; won 9; drew 9; lost 20; for a total of 36 points. And that is relegation form.
What that argument does not take into account is that the fixtures weren’t evenly spread between all of the teams, and in that period the Swans played some teams three times, including Man City, Man Utd, and Spurs. Even the most sadistic fixture arranger would think that playing them three times in a season would be a bit harsh.
OK, knock out the third match of each of those teams and substitute three matches against teams that the Swans have only met once over that period (Crystal Palace, Hull, Sunderland). If the Swans get 4 points from those 3 fixtures then they have reached the magic 40 point mark: if they win all of them then they are on 45 points and back in the top half of the table. Crisis? What crisis?
What does this prove, apart from the fact that you can prove a lot of things with figures? Firstly, any manager who faces Man City, Man Utd and Spurs 3 times over a 38 game season is very likely to be sacked. Secondly, Laudrup was probably correct and the Swans should do much better in their remaining fixtures against comparatively weaker teams. But whether a new, untried manager will do as well as an experienced one such as Michael Laudrup is something that we are going to have to find out.
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| The myth of the "38 match season" on 05:15 - Feb 7 with 1181 views | JethroJack |
The reason for the sacking?
Maybe HJ decided it was high time to buck the trend of managers staying with us for 2yrs & buggering off to "better things". So, being ruthless & getting shot of ML (who was going anyway in May) sends out the signal to other prospective managers that they should take us "more seriously" as a club and not a "stepping stone to better things". |  | | |
| The myth of the on 06:25 - Feb 7 with 1157 views | Dr_Winston |
| The myth of the on 04:53 - Feb 7 by Jackanapes |
Well that picture would be funny if I had made those stats up. As for your first point, if a full season is required to adequately portray a managers performance, its a shame Ml didn't get a full season to show what he would have done. We also have almost all our home games against the teams around us to play at home yet. Unless you are suggesting playing teams away is the same as playing them at home? Another fact about statistics is that they are meaningless without context.
If it wasn't about results, and it wasn't about performance( our performances had improved up until the West Ham game), one can only assume it was down to personalities.
If things on the pitch had panned out as they did,last season, which they have so far, we would have stayed up anyway. It would be an horrific turn of events if we ended up panicking INTO relegation. [Post edited 7 Feb 2014 5:04]
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Given how piss poor our home form has been for the last calendar year why should we go into games against these sides expecting to win?
The team can't defend with any shape or solidity. The team is not fit enough to press and attack at high tempo. That's nothing to do with injuries, that's just poor coaching. Even if the players you've got aren't good enough, it's still possible to look like there's some sort of plan in place. |  |
| Pain or damage don't end the world. Or despair, or f*cking beatings. The world ends when you're dead. Until then, you got more punishment in store. Stand it like a man... and give some back. |
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| The myth of the on 06:37 - Feb 7 with 1156 views | Jackanapes |
| The myth of the on 06:25 - Feb 7 by Dr_Winston |
Given how piss poor our home form has been for the last calendar year why should we go into games against these sides expecting to win?
The team can't defend with any shape or solidity. The team is not fit enough to press and attack at high tempo. That's nothing to do with injuries, that's just poor coaching. Even if the players you've got aren't good enough, it's still possible to look like there's some sort of plan in place. |
I am supposing we will do as well as we did last season, as we have done almost identically this season, on occasion better, for instance we lost at Villa last season and we lost at home to Fulham last season. I think its not truthful to say we have been homogeneously terrible at home, as least no more so than last season. There is also no denying that we improved of late.
If the games had come in this order last season, we would have been in this situation last season. I wonder if Laudrup would have got the sack, in the exact same situation, last season.
We will never know what would have happened had Laudrup stayed, the last poll on here showed most people thought we would stay up with him at the helm. It should be more of a surprise that most people appear to shifted that view. I can foresee though that future history has already been written. If we stay up it will be because Huw sacked Laudrup, and if we go down it will be because Huw sacked Laudrup too late. |  |
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“The stupidest thing she knew was for people to act like they knew all about the things they knew absolutely nothing about.†|
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| The myth of the on 06:45 - Feb 7 with 1148 views | Dr_Winston |
| The myth of the on 06:37 - Feb 7 by Jackanapes |
I am supposing we will do as well as we did last season, as we have done almost identically this season, on occasion better, for instance we lost at Villa last season and we lost at home to Fulham last season. I think its not truthful to say we have been homogeneously terrible at home, as least no more so than last season. There is also no denying that we improved of late.
If the games had come in this order last season, we would have been in this situation last season. I wonder if Laudrup would have got the sack, in the exact same situation, last season.
We will never know what would have happened had Laudrup stayed, the last poll on here showed most people thought we would stay up with him at the helm. It should be more of a surprise that most people appear to shifted that view. I can foresee though that future history has already been written. If we stay up it will be because Huw sacked Laudrup, and if we go down it will be because Huw sacked Laudrup too late. |
And I am supposing that we would have continued to do as we had been, which is probably what Huw did too. If we go down it'll be because of a combination of factors, not all of them Laudrup's fault. For sure Huw and the scouting staff have to carry some of the can too (Emnes FFS!)
No doubt it's a gamble, but for me Huw's done a lot of stuff right in his time as chairman (quite a lot of stuff wrong too) and has earned a bit of trust. | |
| Pain or damage don't end the world. Or despair, or f*cking beatings. The world ends when you're dead. Until then, you got more punishment in store. Stand it like a man... and give some back. |
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| The myth of the on 06:50 - Feb 7 with 1144 views | Jackanapes |
| The myth of the on 06:45 - Feb 7 by Dr_Winston |
And I am supposing that we would have continued to do as we had been, which is probably what Huw did too. If we go down it'll be because of a combination of factors, not all of them Laudrup's fault. For sure Huw and the scouting staff have to carry some of the can too (Emnes FFS!)
No doubt it's a gamble, but for me Huw's done a lot of stuff right in his time as chairman (quite a lot of stuff wrong too) and has earned a bit of trust. |
Its a brave* move.I would have to agree with the last paragraph.
*among other adjectives | |
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“The stupidest thing she knew was for people to act like they knew all about the things they knew absolutely nothing about.†|
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| The myth of the "38 match season" on 07:49 - Feb 7 with 1114 views | Shaky |
| The myth of the "38 match season" on 05:15 - Feb 7 by JethroJack |
The reason for the sacking?
Maybe HJ decided it was high time to buck the trend of managers staying with us for 2yrs & buggering off to "better things". So, being ruthless & getting shot of ML (who was going anyway in May) sends out the signal to other prospective managers that they should take us "more seriously" as a club and not a "stepping stone to better things". |
Wow. Your theory is that being sick of managers departing early Jenkins sacks Laudrup early to put the frighteners of anybody else thinking of doing the same thing in future.
I have to admit I am not Jenkins' greatest fan, but even I don't believe he is a psychopath as your theory would tend to imply. |  |
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| The myth of the "38 match season" on 08:04 - Feb 7 with 1105 views | ymaohyd |
To the original poster, brilliant post. This is what a forum should be about well thought out debate. I don't agree with you as i firmly believe and know
that a change was needed.
Once a dressing room is lost it's an extremely rocky road. Listen to ex pros
that is always the defining moment. |  |
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| The myth of the "38 match season" on 08:10 - Feb 7 with 1100 views | Shaky |
| The myth of the "38 match season" on 08:04 - Feb 7 by ymaohyd |
To the original poster, brilliant post. This is what a forum should be about well thought out debate. I don't agree with you as i firmly believe and know
that a change was needed.
Once a dressing room is lost it's an extremely rocky road. Listen to ex pros
that is always the defining moment. |
Do you really believe that Laudrup had lost the dressing room?
Do you think that was why Jenkins prevented Laudrup from saying goodbye to the players? To protect him from hostile players wanting to give him a dig or three? | |
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| The myth of the "38 match season" on 09:00 - Feb 7 with 1064 views | monmouth |
| The myth of the "38 match season" on 22:36 - Feb 6 by Jackanapes |
The fixtures fell kindly last season. We had 34 points by this stage i think. If we had played last seasons games in this seasons order, we would only have accrued 25 points by this stage last season. I wonder would the collective arse have gone then? |
"collective arse"
Excellent |  |
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| The myth of the "38 match season" on 09:16 - Feb 7 with 1047 views | Catullus |
| The myth of the "38 match season" on 09:00 - Feb 7 by monmouth |
"collective arse"
Excellent |
My arse went when performance levels became so much worse than last season. We had managed to pick up points despite our performances. Obviously there were games where we played well, Newcastle and Man City for example. But we had several absolutely awful first or second halves, we had become a 45 minute team, unable to sustain any sort of effort for a whole game. Despite beating Fulham, their form has showed that was just as much about them being truly awful as us being any good. And west Ham was beyond the pale.
Several times this season we have been behind and not looked bothered. Indeed a couple of commentators have actually said as much, the last time being Spurs at home. We completely surrendered the second half after a decent first half.
I have said this more than once but it's not really fair comparing a season fixture by fixture as so much has changed. new players, new managers, new styles, rule changes, referees, weather, team selection, form...FORM!!
If it was as easy as saying "we did this against them last season and that's what we should do this season" there would be no need to keep on playing.
There are so many variables from season to season, you can only take the current season as a barometer. Current form and results are all that matters.
Once you start over analysing, things just get confusing. Too many "facts" to trawl through and most of them irrelevant.
I mean, I remember us beating Cardiff 3-2 down here, Dean Saunders scored, is that at all relevant? It's as relevant as last seasons games. |  |
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| The myth of the "38 match season" on 09:27 - Feb 7 with 1043 views | monmouth |
The collective arse, including mine, will be in overdrive tomorrow. | |
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| The myth of the on 09:34 - Feb 7 with 1032 views | Jackanapes |
| The myth of the "38 match season" on 09:16 - Feb 7 by Catullus |
My arse went when performance levels became so much worse than last season. We had managed to pick up points despite our performances. Obviously there were games where we played well, Newcastle and Man City for example. But we had several absolutely awful first or second halves, we had become a 45 minute team, unable to sustain any sort of effort for a whole game. Despite beating Fulham, their form has showed that was just as much about them being truly awful as us being any good. And west Ham was beyond the pale.
Several times this season we have been behind and not looked bothered. Indeed a couple of commentators have actually said as much, the last time being Spurs at home. We completely surrendered the second half after a decent first half.
I have said this more than once but it's not really fair comparing a season fixture by fixture as so much has changed. new players, new managers, new styles, rule changes, referees, weather, team selection, form...FORM!!
If it was as easy as saying "we did this against them last season and that's what we should do this season" there would be no need to keep on playing.
There are so many variables from season to season, you can only take the current season as a barometer. Current form and results are all that matters.
Once you start over analysing, things just get confusing. Too many "facts" to trawl through and most of them irrelevant.
I mean, I remember us beating Cardiff 3-2 down here, Dean Saunders scored, is that at all relevant? It's as relevant as last seasons games. |
We have the same players and are playing against the same players(give or take) and attaining the same results as last season. What on earth has Dean Saunders got to do with this? Facts only appear to be irrelevant when they are devastating to certain peoples argument. [Post edited 7 Feb 2014 9:35]
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“The stupidest thing she knew was for people to act like they knew all about the things they knew absolutely nothing about.†|
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| The myth of the on 09:37 - Feb 7 with 1025 views | Jackanapes |
I have say congratulations to Catullus though for being the first to actually come out and say his opinion is of more value than actual facts. At least he is honest in his delusion. [Post edited 7 Feb 2014 9:38]
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“The stupidest thing she knew was for people to act like they knew all about the things they knew absolutely nothing about.†|
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| The myth of the on 09:53 - Feb 7 with 992 views | perchrockjack |
| The myth of the on 21:57 - Feb 6 by PozuelosSideys |
The board need to clarify the reason for the sacking? I think the gutless performance against West Ham and the piss poor performances and constant excuses (me included) for them over the season is enough. As somebody else mentioned on here "we were sleepwalking into the Championship".
Thats enough for me. |
That's very honest. Had LAUDRUP stayed he ,Might have taken us down in which case many would have felt wounded as he walks out of our door.
Board believed he would so they ve acted although too late possibly as the signs have been there for some time. Worse of all ,it got some into accepting we re not worthy to mix it with the big boys which Mikey so droned on about | |
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| The myth of the "38 match season" on 09:55 - Feb 7 with 991 views | llangyfelach |
| The myth of the "38 match season" on 21:11 - Feb 6 by monmouth |
Do you really think any of that gubbins is why the board wanted him out? There is clearly something else going on here that may or may not come out in the wash. Our Board is not going to burn between 3 and 5m unless they really thought there was no alternative. Actually it's more because if we'd survived under ML, we'd have got compo when he left in the summer.
It is completely against the natueof the beast to be financially profligate,so if they thought there was any real hope with ML, wouldn't they surely have kept him on? Maybe the reality will emerge at some stage, probably in a player's ghost written book.
Having said that,I don't see the point of revisionism or mud slinging either to justify it. Fact is he's our most successful manager ever. Just because he couldn't maintain it and ended like this doesn't change it. Without him we almost certainly would not have won a cup...mainly because most managers wouldn't have played hard for it. I'llremember his achievements rather than his demise when I'm boring my great grandkids. |
Superb post |  |
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| The myth of the "38 match season" on 10:12 - Feb 7 with 966 views | ymaohyd |
| The myth of the "38 match season" on 08:10 - Feb 7 by Shaky |
Do you really believe that Laudrup had lost the dressing room?
Do you think that was why Jenkins prevented Laudrup from saying goodbye to the players? To protect him from hostile players wanting to give him a dig or three? |
Take it from me I know one of the players very well and ML had completely lost the dressing room. Believe that if you want. As for ML being banned from saying goodbye to the players!? He said f*ck all to them when he was coach and treated senior players pretty poorly.
That said I don't like reading that as it doesn't reflect on us well as a club. What was the reason? I don't really know..legal reasons I suppose and that is potentially going to get messy. | |
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| The myth of the "38 match season" on 10:15 - Feb 7 with 954 views | perchrockjack |
I m led to believe that he left it to Curt to talk to them | |
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| The myth of the "38 match season" on 11:13 - Feb 7 with 935 views | Joe_bradshaw |
| The myth of the "38 match season" on 05:15 - Feb 7 by JethroJack |
The reason for the sacking?
Maybe HJ decided it was high time to buck the trend of managers staying with us for 2yrs & buggering off to "better things". So, being ruthless & getting shot of ML (who was going anyway in May) sends out the signal to other prospective managers that they should take us "more seriously" as a club and not a "stepping stone to better things". |
Good plan.
Pay out £4.5 Million to get rid rather than wait to the end of the season and get a payment off a club who want Laudrup as their manager.
Jenkins clearly thought we were going down by keeping him - no other reason makes sense.
I was confident we'd get the point a game required with a friendlier fixture list and injured players returning but I don't know what Jenkins knows. |  |
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| The myth of the "38 match season" on 11:18 - Feb 7 with 927 views | 3swan |
I know defeats can affect confidence, but the body language and finger pointing in games showed that imo, team moral was very low, and the togetherness of the squad that has been our strength over the last few seasons had gone | | | |
| The myth of the "38 match season" on 11:45 - Feb 7 with 902 views | macman |
Here is a list of managers sacked the season after a CC win:
Mourinho (Chelsea)
Juan Ramos (Tootenham)
McLeish (Birmingham)
Dalglish (Liverpool) | | | |
| The myth of the on 11:54 - Feb 7 with 885 views | macman |
John Cross, Daily Mirror when asked:
- So his reputation is still intact after the sacking in Swansea?
- I am in doubt. It will be exciting to see. He was not very popular in Swansea at then end and he had big tensions with the chairman. If he will talk to the next Laudrup club I will imagine a completely different and negative view of Laudrup. There must be a deeper explanation for the sacking when the club is still in FA Cup, stiil in EL and still above the relegation in the PL Premier League. If you look at his results from the outside, it is amasing what he has achieved. [Post edited 7 Feb 2014 13:08]
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| The myth of the on 20:41 - Feb 7 with 826 views | JethroJack |
| The myth of the "38 match season" on 07:49 - Feb 7 by Shaky |
Wow. Your theory is that being sick of managers departing early Jenkins sacks Laudrup early to put the frighteners of anybody else thinking of doing the same thing in future.
I have to admit I am not Jenkins' greatest fan, but even I don't believe he is a psychopath as your theory would tend to imply. |
Psychopath? What are you on about?!?
I'm saying that he/the board want prospective future managers to show us more respect & not see us as just a stepping stone to "bigger" jobs. [Post edited 7 Feb 2014 20:45]
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| (No subject) on 22:56 - Feb 7 with 756 views | singalongajack |
| The myth of the on 21:49 - Feb 7 by morningstar |
You see us winning at Arsenal, Newcastle and getting a point at Everton I take it? I suppose you could try and argue that you would expect us to beat Norwich and Aston Villa at home this time around, but it's far from guaranteed is it? Either way it's swings and roundabouts. But the bottom line is, we are 10 points worse off than we were at this stage last season and that is a hell of a lot!  [Post edited 7 Feb 2014 21:51]
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there's a saying
there's nothing more frightening than a click, when you expected a bang.
fit that analogy to anything you want.
i've been a welsh rugby fan all my life
ive been there through the highs
and the years of woe until recent times.
the same goes with the swans.
hwyl is the difference between a weaker team beating a stronger team.
on our day, with the fire going, we can beat anyone
it's all about hunger and grit.
if you believe you can, or believe you cant, your right.
saying teams aren't in our league, within a league, is a negative psychological factor that i bet you'd never hear alladyce or clough say
(sorry to say alladyce in same sentance with clough. i'm pised and cant think too deeply, just rant)
we need belief in our style and practice a few more moves.(crossing, hitting the target, more movement)
hwyl is what we need.
win or die trying | | | |
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