| Is the lock down ending too soon? 04:59 - Jul 1 with 162347 views | Glyn1 |
That's basically it.
Thoughts please. [Post edited 1 Jul 2020 5:00]
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 09:37 - Aug 20 with 1790 views | felixstowe_jack |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 09:27 - Aug 20 by Scotia |
I hate to say it you are correct. It certainly seems that England began to move out of lock down at the correct time. Certainly most of the country, with local restrictions where needed.
I was beginning to wonder where Boris is, but you could say the same for Drakeford. |
Strange Boris has been seen on TV at least 3 times a day opening some new building site, visiting a factory etc. Drakeford has been locked away in his bunker since March making his daily pronouncements and spreading doom and gloom. |  |
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 10:43 - Aug 20 with 1794 views | Dr_Winston |
Interesting to see cases begin to rise again in countries that locked down more rigorously than the UK. The result of more testing, the inevitable spread of the virus into areas it previously had no chance of getting to or a bit of both? |  |
| Pain or damage don't end the world. Or despair, or f*cking beatings. The world ends when you're dead. Until then, you got more punishment in store. Stand it like a man... and give some back. |
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 11:44 - Aug 20 with 1774 views | Professor |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 10:43 - Aug 20 by Dr_Winston |
Interesting to see cases begin to rise again in countries that locked down more rigorously than the UK. The result of more testing, the inevitable spread of the virus into areas it previously had no chance of getting to or a bit of both? |
More testing and genuine rises. A much larger number of asymptomatic positives and more in younger people where restrictions are being ignored. Most worrying is Florida where it looks to have moved from the young to the older population again and deaths are starting to creep back up.
Seems this pattern is also happening elsewhere in the US. | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 12:04 - Aug 20 with 1762 views | Dr_Winston |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 11:44 - Aug 20 by Professor |
More testing and genuine rises. A much larger number of asymptomatic positives and more in younger people where restrictions are being ignored. Most worrying is Florida where it looks to have moved from the young to the older population again and deaths are starting to creep back up.
Seems this pattern is also happening elsewhere in the US. |
Regardless of who was in charge the US was always going to be badly hit due to its demographics, the nature of its inhabitants, its healthcare system etc but there's no doubt that the cheeto in chief has made things worse.
I don't possess your level of expertise but I tend to think that given the lack of a vaccine asymptomatic and low risk transmission is inevitable and not a huge thing to be worried about as long as protections remain in place for those who are at risk.
There will be those in low risk categories who cop a bad dose of it, but the same goes for flu and other viruses most people tend to shake off. I don't know if we can do another lockdown, especially since they just seem to kick the can down the road so to speak. | |
| Pain or damage don't end the world. Or despair, or f*cking beatings. The world ends when you're dead. Until then, you got more punishment in store. Stand it like a man... and give some back. |
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 12:29 - Aug 20 with 1751 views | Professor |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 12:04 - Aug 20 by Dr_Winston |
Regardless of who was in charge the US was always going to be badly hit due to its demographics, the nature of its inhabitants, its healthcare system etc but there's no doubt that the cheeto in chief has made things worse.
I don't possess your level of expertise but I tend to think that given the lack of a vaccine asymptomatic and low risk transmission is inevitable and not a huge thing to be worried about as long as protections remain in place for those who are at risk.
There will be those in low risk categories who cop a bad dose of it, but the same goes for flu and other viruses most people tend to shake off. I don't know if we can do another lockdown, especially since they just seem to kick the can down the road so to speak. |
That’s a fair assessment. The US lacks an integrated public health system (or indeed for food safety and animal health- which is really my thing). But, yes the fingers in ears approach of the President was poor.
From a scientific point of view we made two errors- the first was scrapping of the autonomous Health Protection Agency- this was world leading to the underfunded PHE/PHW which was not. As this was 2012 I think we let Matt Hancock off on that. The second was the lack of clinical virology or coronavirus expertise on SAGE. Cummings was rather in awe of the modelling and behaviourial
Approach, which completely ignored the evidence that influenza- based approaches were wrong.
An earlier, short and sharp lockdown may have been better. I will not comment on the politics here.
And yes, we can’t go back to a general lockdown. Local, strictly enforced lockdowns will work with better testing ( we are getting there). Lockdown/shielding to at risk groups is also likely in the event of increased cases. Not good (if like me you are in one), but allows school and business to operate at least some level. | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 17:41 - Aug 20 with 1725 views | Catullus |
I think a lot of people would ignore another full lockdown. Would it be better to make wearing masks mandatory in shops, to increase testing, to try and speed up work on vaccines, where possible, I know some of it is necessatily time consuming snd then, increase punishments for ignoring the rules and actually follow through on that.
When I first went into a shop after lockdown had started (which I had to do after my wife had an operation) I found people waited, they mostly kept 2 metres away, didn't push past you. More recently, now shielding is paused, I have been to Asda and found people carrying on as if this is all over. They are ignoring distancing, ignoring the one way system and on the way in many weren't even using the hand sanitiser or wiping down the handle of their trolley. Not to forget the strange looks us mask wearers are getting, as if we are doing something against the rules! | |
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 21:03 - Aug 20 with 1702 views | Andy1300 |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 12:29 - Aug 20 by Professor |
That’s a fair assessment. The US lacks an integrated public health system (or indeed for food safety and animal health- which is really my thing). But, yes the fingers in ears approach of the President was poor.
From a scientific point of view we made two errors- the first was scrapping of the autonomous Health Protection Agency- this was world leading to the underfunded PHE/PHW which was not. As this was 2012 I think we let Matt Hancock off on that. The second was the lack of clinical virology or coronavirus expertise on SAGE. Cummings was rather in awe of the modelling and behaviourial
Approach, which completely ignored the evidence that influenza- based approaches were wrong.
An earlier, short and sharp lockdown may have been better. I will not comment on the politics here.
And yes, we can’t go back to a general lockdown. Local, strictly enforced lockdowns will work with better testing ( we are getting there). Lockdown/shielding to at risk groups is also likely in the event of increased cases. Not good (if like me you are in one), but allows school and business to operate at least some level. |
Which is what should have happened from the start.
Shield the vulnerable , test people and let the country stay at work etc |  |
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 22:10 - Aug 20 with 1687 views | Dr_Winston |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 17:41 - Aug 20 by Catullus |
I think a lot of people would ignore another full lockdown. Would it be better to make wearing masks mandatory in shops, to increase testing, to try and speed up work on vaccines, where possible, I know some of it is necessatily time consuming snd then, increase punishments for ignoring the rules and actually follow through on that.
When I first went into a shop after lockdown had started (which I had to do after my wife had an operation) I found people waited, they mostly kept 2 metres away, didn't push past you. More recently, now shielding is paused, I have been to Asda and found people carrying on as if this is all over. They are ignoring distancing, ignoring the one way system and on the way in many weren't even using the hand sanitiser or wiping down the handle of their trolley. Not to forget the strange looks us mask wearers are getting, as if we are doing something against the rules! |
I tend to think we went too far down the puritan route. We locked down everything even when the risks associated with some things were low. The rates for transmission outdoors appear to be next to nothing, but we closed down country parks, playgrounds, beer gardens, beaches and God knows what else.
The risks associated with schools appear to be minimal, yet we denied an ongoing education to millions of children and even now the repercussions of that are still being worked out with the exam grade fiasco.
If we'd shut down what had to be shut down, protected the vulnerable and let most others get on with things in a socially distant way we could have kept things going for a while.
Clusterf*ck doesn't begin to cover it. | |
| Pain or damage don't end the world. Or despair, or f*cking beatings. The world ends when you're dead. Until then, you got more punishment in store. Stand it like a man... and give some back. |
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 22:31 - Aug 20 with 1684 views | DJack |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 22:10 - Aug 20 by Dr_Winston |
I tend to think we went too far down the puritan route. We locked down everything even when the risks associated with some things were low. The rates for transmission outdoors appear to be next to nothing, but we closed down country parks, playgrounds, beer gardens, beaches and God knows what else.
The risks associated with schools appear to be minimal, yet we denied an ongoing education to millions of children and even now the repercussions of that are still being worked out with the exam grade fiasco.
If we'd shut down what had to be shut down, protected the vulnerable and let most others get on with things in a socially distant way we could have kept things going for a while.
Clusterf*ck doesn't begin to cover it. |
"The rates for transmission outdoors appear to be next to nothing, but we closed down country parks, playgrounds, beer gardens, beaches and God knows what else."
Ah, hindsight!
It took quite some time for us to realise that, so that criticism is unjust |  |
| It is far better to grasp the universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring. - Carl Sagan |
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 22:33 - Aug 20 with 1683 views | Professor |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 22:10 - Aug 20 by Dr_Winston |
I tend to think we went too far down the puritan route. We locked down everything even when the risks associated with some things were low. The rates for transmission outdoors appear to be next to nothing, but we closed down country parks, playgrounds, beer gardens, beaches and God knows what else.
The risks associated with schools appear to be minimal, yet we denied an ongoing education to millions of children and even now the repercussions of that are still being worked out with the exam grade fiasco.
If we'd shut down what had to be shut down, protected the vulnerable and let most others get on with things in a socially distant way we could have kept things going for a while.
Clusterf*ck doesn't begin to cover it. |
Sadly- the schools appears not to as ‘risk free’ as hoped. The US and others seeing fair bit of transmission | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 22:37 - Aug 20 with 1680 views | Dr_Winston |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 22:33 - Aug 20 by Professor |
Sadly- the schools appears not to as ‘risk free’ as hoped. The US and others seeing fair bit of transmission |
Depends who they're transmitting it to surely? | |
| Pain or damage don't end the world. Or despair, or f*cking beatings. The world ends when you're dead. Until then, you got more punishment in store. Stand it like a man... and give some back. |
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 23:04 - Aug 20 with 1666 views | Professor |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 22:37 - Aug 20 by Dr_Winston |
Depends who they're transmitting it to surely? |
Yes- but the risk is still greater than thought a few weeks ago. All sorts going down
With US universities going back too. We are going to have to take a lot of care | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 23:19 - Aug 20 with 1655 views | exhmrc1 |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 23:04 - Aug 20 by Professor |
Yes- but the risk is still greater than thought a few weeks ago. All sorts going down
With US universities going back too. We are going to have to take a lot of care |
One of the biggest worry is when large groups of university students come here from abroad. | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 23:22 - Aug 20 with 1652 views | majorraglan |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 22:37 - Aug 20 by Dr_Winston |
Depends who they're transmitting it to surely? |
I agree, but I suspect after passing out to each other the kids will spread it to teachers, bus drivers, parents and grand parents........
We can’t shut down forever, but there need to be checks and balances. It’s a tough one. | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 23:35 - Aug 20 with 1645 views | Professor |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 23:19 - Aug 20 by exhmrc1 |
One of the biggest worry is when large groups of university students come here from abroad. |
Not going to be a problem this year though. Plenty circulating in U.K. to cause problems. Seem likely Birmingham will go into a lockdown | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 23:48 - Aug 20 with 1637 views | Professor |
They are not coming. We have the second largest intake of Chinese students.
We anticipate about 10% coming this year. 500 not 5000. They can charter the plane, but may be pretty empty. | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 00:19 - Aug 21 with 1626 views | exhmrc1 |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 23:48 - Aug 20 by Professor |
They are not coming. We have the second largest intake of Chinese students.
We anticipate about 10% coming this year. 500 not 5000. They can charter the plane, but may be pretty empty. |
They are saying students want to come but it is the unavailability of flights that is holding them back. This is what the students are telling them. | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 10:32 - Aug 21 with 1596 views | Professor |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 00:19 - Aug 21 by exhmrc1 |
They are saying students want to come but it is the unavailability of flights that is holding them back. This is what the students are telling them. |
That is not correct I am sorry.
We have a campus (as do Nottingham) in China. Many come to do a masters in Liverpool after their BA/BSc in China. There is no uptake this year and having feet and ears on the ground, it’s simply no one wants to travel outside China. We have been contingency planning for this and U.K. campus shutdown and limited access since January. I have been critical of our VC and senior management in the past, but their handling of the issues faced in the pandemic have been exemplary. We are goingto lose perhaps 30million in income this year- lots of cost cutting, redundancy (voluntary up to now), promotion and wage freezes and senior management wage cuts (Dame Janet’s cut is greater than my salary). But mainly this will be a hit on assets and reserves- the reason no Russell Group will go under is their wealth. A contrast to the issues Swansea faces. I am sure the charter will bring some students, but I will be shocked if they get above a quarter of their planned numbers. | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 10:42 - Aug 21 with 1593 views | Professor |
So, I have just seen the MK lighthouse lab figures (they are freely available). What piqued my interest was one of my PhD students has spent four months there whilst we have had the lab shut down. She came back Thursday so a colleague and I helped her move into a new flat.
She said positive tests were increasing markedly but were uneven. The data bear this out.
This has been posted by the lab manager. Remember this is England too.
Two key points
1. The number of positive tests in increasing . Still low enough to be contained, but certainly a sign we need caution
2. There are marked peaks. These look reasonably regular each week- from pub reopenings
In England on July 4th
Be sensible folks. [Post edited 21 Aug 2020 10:49]
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| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 20:04 - Aug 21 with 1529 views | Scotia |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 10:42 - Aug 21 by Professor |
So, I have just seen the MK lighthouse lab figures (they are freely available). What piqued my interest was one of my PhD students has spent four months there whilst we have had the lab shut down. She came back Thursday so a colleague and I helped her move into a new flat.
She said positive tests were increasing markedly but were uneven. The data bear this out.
This has been posted by the lab manager. Remember this is England too.
Two key points
1. The number of positive tests in increasing . Still low enough to be contained, but certainly a sign we need caution
2. There are marked peaks. These look reasonably regular each week- from pub reopenings
In England on July 4th
Be sensible folks. [Post edited 21 Aug 2020 10:49]
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Thanks. The recent uptick is a little worrying.
I'm currently sitting in a gale outside a Brighton pub as everywhere else is full, social distancing is being taken seriously. I hope it is enough to contain the spread. | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 20:58 - Aug 21 with 1515 views | exhmrc1 |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 20:04 - Aug 21 by Scotia |
Thanks. The recent uptick is a little worrying.
I'm currently sitting in a gale outside a Brighton pub as everywhere else is full, social distancing is being taken seriously. I hope it is enough to contain the spread. |
Don't forget they are also undertaking huge amounts of targeted testing (far more per head than Wales) and returning a positivity rate of about 0.7%.
Not exactly accurate it is nearly double that 1.3% | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 21:48 - Aug 21 with 1502 views | Scotia |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 20:58 - Aug 21 by exhmrc1 |
Don't forget they are also undertaking huge amounts of targeted testing (far more per head than Wales) and returning a positivity rate of about 0.7%.
Not exactly accurate it is nearly double that 1.3% |
That is one lab.
Overall (until yesterday because I'm on holiday) it is 0.67%. Please give up. This can't be good for you. | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 22:05 - Aug 21 with 1497 views | Professor |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 21:48 - Aug 21 by Scotia |
That is one lab.
Overall (until yesterday because I'm on holiday) it is 0.67%. Please give up. This can't be good for you. |
And will be very much samples from southern England. It is absolutely accurate. Positives are becoming more frequent through that centre. | | | |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 22:25 - Aug 21 with 1487 views | exhmrc1 |
| Is the lock down ending too soon? on 22:05 - Aug 21 by Professor |
And will be very much samples from southern England. It is absolutely accurate. Positives are becoming more frequent through that centre. |
That is exactly it. Alderley Park will cover most of the North West like it did North Wales when there were problems in Angelsey and Wrexham. Interestingly the figures over the last few days in Wales show a very large percentage of mobile tests. 3/4 of the positive cases in Wales today were these pillar 2 mobile testing cases so they are obviously testing areas where cases have been found hence the reason for the positivity. Only 6 of the cases were Pillar 1 cases today and less yesterday. | | | |
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