| Lies, damned lies and statistics 15:27 - Mar 19 with 8223 views | jackmorsel |
Apologies in advance for another Covid 19 thread and I may well be stating the obvious here, so forgive me if I am.
However I've been doing a lot of thinking about the "numbers" regarding CV19 and the context in which the media especially are simply focussing on some very distinct and general datasets, number of cases, deaths, etc and whilst numbers like in Italy of 475 dying in a day on the face of it are shocking. I cannot help being concerned that all these numbers are somewhat out of context.
So I decided to look to the ONS for real data on the typical death rate in England & Wales and found data on the on website. Specially looking at winter mortality rates.It makes for some interesting reading and brings real context to the number in general. Whilst accepting that this is horrendous and is going to cause 1000s of deaths in the UK. If the media reported all the data on all illness and mortality rates it would contextualise this and not sensationalise it? Which I think IS the very cause of panic and fear in the majority of people.
Have a look here.....
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/dea
In the years 2017/2018 daily mortality rates are circa 1200 a day across the board. In March 2018 the daily mortality rate hovers around 1600 a day so approx 49,000 died in March 2018 of various causes.The causes are broken down in the spread sheet.
My point is that even though most of the CV19 deaths to come may well be additional, to give context to the "numbers" the media and to some extent government should be trying to quell the panic and worry and not sensationalising the "numbers". If the Daily Fail printed a headline saying 49,000 to die in March, all hell would break loose as it's just a number totally out of contex. This is what is happening now, and although the situation is dire, subduing the fear could go a long way to stopping the panic buying and fear stoking that seems to be rife now.
OR is that the plan????
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| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 21:21 - Mar 21 with 1051 views | Dr_Winston |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 21:00 - Mar 21 by Garyjack |
It's just a theory, but Italians have a totally different culture and family life to us in the sense that they live in large families. Sometimes 3 or even 4 generations of the same family live in the same household. Put them on lockdown and it's potentially a recipe for disaster.
As i said, it's just a theory, but it seems highly irregular for the death rate to be so high compared to the UK when the first reported cases were only 24 hours apart. [Post edited 21 Mar 2020 21:05]
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Also direct links between the areas worst affected and Wuhan itself.
Read something earlier about elderly Moslems apparently being particularly badly hit in London due to similar family living arrangements. None of this should lead any of us to complacency, but direct comparisons to the situation in Italy aren't entirely level IMO.
Although if we still see situations like today where people were queuing to get up Snowdon like it was a bank holiday they may soon well be. |  |
| Pain or damage don't end the world. Or despair, or f*cking beatings. The world ends when you're dead. Until then, you got more punishment in store. Stand it like a man... and give some back. |
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| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 21:23 - Mar 21 with 1037 views | ladyjack |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 21:00 - Mar 21 by Garyjack |
It's just a theory, but Italians have a totally different culture and family life to us in the sense that they live in large families. Sometimes 3 or even 4 generations of the same family live in the same household. Put them on lockdown and it's potentially a recipe for disaster.
As i said, it's just a theory, but it seems highly irregular for the death rate to be so high compared to the UK when the first reported cases were only 24 hours apart. [Post edited 21 Mar 2020 21:05]
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There might be something in that, it makes sense but who knows. |  | | |
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