| Lies, damned lies and statistics 15:27 - Mar 19 with 8224 views | jackmorsel |
Apologies in advance for another Covid 19 thread and I may well be stating the obvious here, so forgive me if I am.
However I've been doing a lot of thinking about the "numbers" regarding CV19 and the context in which the media especially are simply focussing on some very distinct and general datasets, number of cases, deaths, etc and whilst numbers like in Italy of 475 dying in a day on the face of it are shocking. I cannot help being concerned that all these numbers are somewhat out of context.
So I decided to look to the ONS for real data on the typical death rate in England & Wales and found data on the on website. Specially looking at winter mortality rates.It makes for some interesting reading and brings real context to the number in general. Whilst accepting that this is horrendous and is going to cause 1000s of deaths in the UK. If the media reported all the data on all illness and mortality rates it would contextualise this and not sensationalise it? Which I think IS the very cause of panic and fear in the majority of people.
Have a look here.....
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/dea
In the years 2017/2018 daily mortality rates are circa 1200 a day across the board. In March 2018 the daily mortality rate hovers around 1600 a day so approx 49,000 died in March 2018 of various causes.The causes are broken down in the spread sheet.
My point is that even though most of the CV19 deaths to come may well be additional, to give context to the "numbers" the media and to some extent government should be trying to quell the panic and worry and not sensationalising the "numbers". If the Daily Fail printed a headline saying 49,000 to die in March, all hell would break loose as it's just a number totally out of contex. This is what is happening now, and although the situation is dire, subduing the fear could go a long way to stopping the panic buying and fear stoking that seems to be rife now.
OR is that the plan????
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| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 22:08 - Mar 20 with 1528 views | Catullus |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 21:56 - Mar 20 by Flashberryjack |
627 deaths in Italy TODAY ! awful just awful, is this what is coming our way in the next couple of weeks ? |
Most probably. Unless people wise up and follow the rules it could be even worse. I was walking the dog earlier, a group of teens were playing football 5/6 of them but more were arriving. If young people don't get their heads around this they will be saying goodbye to more loved ones than needs be. |  |
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| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 23:49 - Mar 20 with 1490 views | majorraglan |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 21:57 - Mar 19 by majorraglan |
I think you are completely wrong with your view on this, Italy as gone from 2 detected cases at the end of a January to over 41,000 today, the number of deaths has gone from 1 on the 23rd of February to approximately 3,500 as of today - there was an increase of 427 today. These are in addition to Flu.
3500 in just short of a month, if that figure were replicated over a 12 months that’s 42,000 a year, BUT if the trend line reflects what’s happened in the last 24 hours it’s going to be much, much higher. Read the below article, I suspect the way forward has to be a draconian curfew, because what’s happened in Italy appears to be (in my opinion) as a result of half measures etc.
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/coronavirus-italy [Post edited 19 Mar 2020 22:02]
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Another tragic set of figures from Italy today, 627 more people have lost their lives.
Since the 23rd of February which is almost 4 weeks ago, 4032 people have died almost a thousand of them in the last 2days. If that was replicated over 52 weeks it would equate to almost 55,000 lives being lost, a truly frightening situation.
Interestingly, Germany and Spain have similar infection rates, but Germany has only had 53 fatalities while Spain has suffered over a thousand. Does anyone have more information re this? | | | |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 13:50 - Mar 21 with 1427 views | Catullus |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 23:49 - Mar 20 by majorraglan |
Another tragic set of figures from Italy today, 627 more people have lost their lives.
Since the 23rd of February which is almost 4 weeks ago, 4032 people have died almost a thousand of them in the last 2days. If that was replicated over 52 weeks it would equate to almost 55,000 lives being lost, a truly frightening situation.
Interestingly, Germany and Spain have similar infection rates, but Germany has only had 53 fatalities while Spain has suffered over a thousand. Does anyone have more information re this? |
We'd need to know more thn infection rates, we'd need to know the ages and personal health conditions to provide an accurate breakdown.
Otherwise the different deographics will be affected by different standards of care, availability of medicines etc.
My guess it the figures will look very unbalanced until afterwards when they are collated and presented as an overall set for comparison. Bearing in mind that is an opinion and I'm not an expert. | |
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| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 17:39 - Mar 21 with 1397 views | Joe_bradshaw |
I was reading that in Italy 71% of the fatalities are males. Considering most fatalities are elderly and there's many more females than males in this category it doesn't sound good for those of us with penises. |  |
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| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 18:02 - Mar 21 with 1388 views | ladyjack |
The impact does seem to be worse for men for some reason. |  | | |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 18:11 - Mar 21 with 1373 views | Professor |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 23:49 - Mar 20 by majorraglan |
Another tragic set of figures from Italy today, 627 more people have lost their lives.
Since the 23rd of February which is almost 4 weeks ago, 4032 people have died almost a thousand of them in the last 2days. If that was replicated over 52 weeks it would equate to almost 55,000 lives being lost, a truly frightening situation.
Interestingly, Germany and Spain have similar infection rates, but Germany has only had 53 fatalities while Spain has suffered over a thousand. Does anyone have more information re this? |
Germany has more widespread testing than anyway else in the western world-picking up mild and asymptomatic cases which no other country is. | | | |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 18:21 - Mar 21 with 1349 views | hobo |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 23:49 - Mar 20 by majorraglan |
Another tragic set of figures from Italy today, 627 more people have lost their lives.
Since the 23rd of February which is almost 4 weeks ago, 4032 people have died almost a thousand of them in the last 2days. If that was replicated over 52 weeks it would equate to almost 55,000 lives being lost, a truly frightening situation.
Interestingly, Germany and Spain have similar infection rates, but Germany has only had 53 fatalities while Spain has suffered over a thousand. Does anyone have more information re this? |
Perfectly simple.
Germany has 500,000 hospital beds. 28,000 of which are intensive care beds. They even want to increase this further to 50,000
We have 4,000 Intensive Care beds... |  | | |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 19:34 - Mar 21 with 1315 views | majorraglan |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 18:21 - Mar 21 by hobo |
Perfectly simple.
Germany has 500,000 hospital beds. 28,000 of which are intensive care beds. They even want to increase this further to 50,000
We have 4,000 Intensive Care beds... |
Thank you. | | | |
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| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 19:39 - Mar 21 with 1312 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 18:21 - Mar 21 by hobo |
Perfectly simple.
Germany has 500,000 hospital beds. 28,000 of which are intensive care beds. They even want to increase this further to 50,000
We have 4,000 Intensive Care beds... |
That’s irrelevant at present though, as we haven’t reached capacity of intensive care facilities.
We just, I Imagine given testing differences, have many more cases than Germany at the moment. | | | |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 19:53 - Mar 21 with 1287 views | sherpajacob |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 23:49 - Mar 20 by majorraglan |
Another tragic set of figures from Italy today, 627 more people have lost their lives.
Since the 23rd of February which is almost 4 weeks ago, 4032 people have died almost a thousand of them in the last 2days. If that was replicated over 52 weeks it would equate to almost 55,000 lives being lost, a truly frightening situation.
Interestingly, Germany and Spain have similar infection rates, but Germany has only had 53 fatalities while Spain has suffered over a thousand. Does anyone have more information re this? |
Germany is (correctly in my opinion) only counting deaths FROM coronavirus and not deaths of seriously ill people who happened to HAVE coronavirus |  |
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| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 19:55 - Mar 21 with 1282 views | hobo |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 19:39 - Mar 21 by londonlisa2001 |
That’s irrelevant at present though, as we haven’t reached capacity of intensive care facilities.
We just, I Imagine given testing differences, have many more cases than Germany at the moment. |
It's just a matter of time before we hit capacity. Italy have twice the number of ICU's as we do, and hit capacity some time ago, hence why they are in the situation of a coronavirus patient dying every 2 minutes | | | |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 19:56 - Mar 21 with 1281 views | ploppy |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 18:21 - Mar 21 by hobo |
Perfectly simple.
Germany has 500,000 hospital beds. 28,000 of which are intensive care beds. They even want to increase this further to 50,000
We have 4,000 Intensive Care beds... |
Apologies, but I started composing this a while ago and others have commented in the meantime ... but here goes anyway.
There's something else going on here though, which I don't pretend to understand. Looking at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
Germany are testing more widely (yes?) so they'll be catching people with mild symptoms who are never admitted to hospital (or are they?). They currently only have 2 serious/critical cases out of approx 22,000 active cases. Is that fully explained by the fact they have lots of IC beds? Are they being admitted earlier i.e. before they get serious?
In contrast, the Netherlands has 354 serious/critical cases out of a total of 3631. The Dutch are not a third world country when it comes to medical facilities.
Someone, somewhere needs to analyse it all and produce a report. By Monday COB, please. | | | |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 19:58 - Mar 21 with 1279 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 19:53 - Mar 21 by sherpajacob |
Germany is (correctly in my opinion) only counting deaths FROM coronavirus and not deaths of seriously ill people who happened to HAVE coronavirus |
Yes, there have been some interesting pieces on that on the BBC website.
I didn’t realise that Germany were doing that differently. | | | |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 19:59 - Mar 21 with 1272 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 19:55 - Mar 21 by hobo |
It's just a matter of time before we hit capacity. Italy have twice the number of ICU's as we do, and hit capacity some time ago, hence why they are in the situation of a coronavirus patient dying every 2 minutes |
That may happen. But it’s irrelevant at present when considering reasons as it hasn’t happened at this point. It happened in one London hospital, temporarily last night and was rectified.
And we’ve taken on an additional 8000 beds today. Plus, importantly, 20000 medical staff. | | | |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 20:07 - Mar 21 with 1260 views | Dr_Winston |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 19:53 - Mar 21 by sherpajacob |
Germany is (correctly in my opinion) only counting deaths FROM coronavirus and not deaths of seriously ill people who happened to HAVE coronavirus |
Interesting.
Unless the underlying conditions would have killed them within a week or two anyway surely CV ultimately is the cause of death? |  |
| Pain or damage don't end the world. Or despair, or f*cking beatings. The world ends when you're dead. Until then, you got more punishment in store. Stand it like a man... and give some back. |
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| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 20:16 - Mar 21 with 1246 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 20:07 - Mar 21 by Dr_Winston |
Interesting.
Unless the underlying conditions would have killed them within a week or two anyway surely CV ultimately is the cause of death? |
One example was given where someone was admitted due to a serious heart attack and died. He had the virus. Difficult to tell whether the virus killed him, I would imagine, as he may or may not have died because of the heart attack anyway, and presumably, may or may not have died with the virus anyway.
It was the combination. It’s recorded as a virus death. | | | |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 20:19 - Mar 21 with 1240 views | DJack |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 18:21 - Mar 21 by hobo |
Perfectly simple.
Germany has 500,000 hospital beds. 28,000 of which are intensive care beds. They even want to increase this further to 50,000
We have 4,000 Intensive Care beds... |
The other issue is that you need enough trained staff to "man" the ICU beds. |  |
| It is far better to grasp the universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring. - Carl Sagan |
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| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 20:20 - Mar 21 with 1237 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 20:19 - Mar 21 by DJack |
The other issue is that you need enough trained staff to "man" the ICU beds. |
We’ve at least taken on 20,000 fully trained medical staff today.
It’s a huge boost. | | | |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 20:31 - Mar 21 with 1221 views | ladyjack |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 19:39 - Mar 21 by londonlisa2001 |
That’s irrelevant at present though, as we haven’t reached capacity of intensive care facilities.
We just, I Imagine given testing differences, have many more cases than Germany at the moment. |
I would have thought that German would have more cases than us at the moment being in continental Europe and all that, but who knows hey, it does seem like their health service would be in a far better position to cope than ours considering how highly rated their health service is but there again who knows. | | | |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 20:35 - Mar 21 with 1217 views | Lohengrin |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 20:31 - Mar 21 by ladyjack |
I would have thought that German would have more cases than us at the moment being in continental Europe and all that, but who knows hey, it does seem like their health service would be in a far better position to cope than ours considering how highly rated their health service is but there again who knows. |
No health service in the developed world is tooled up and prepared for a deluge of these dimensions, Tramp. The BBC World Service is reporting Madrid as being completely overwhelmed. |  |
| An idea isn't responsible for those who believe in it. |
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| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 20:43 - Mar 21 with 1205 views | ladyjack |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 20:35 - Mar 21 by Lohengrin |
No health service in the developed world is tooled up and prepared for a deluge of these dimensions, Tramp. The BBC World Service is reporting Madrid as being completely overwhelmed. |
That is the big worry for us as lots of other European countries health services are currently seen as better than our own due to better facilities etc. | | | |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 20:46 - Mar 21 with 1199 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 20:31 - Mar 21 by ladyjack |
I would have thought that German would have more cases than us at the moment being in continental Europe and all that, but who knows hey, it does seem like their health service would be in a far better position to cope than ours considering how highly rated their health service is but there again who knows. |
Give; the disparity in testing numbers and cases recorded, it seems not. | | | |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 20:49 - Mar 21 with 1188 views | ladyjack |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 20:46 - Mar 21 by londonlisa2001 |
Give; the disparity in testing numbers and cases recorded, it seems not. |
Due to testing differences you say we have many more cases than Germany ? | | | |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 21:00 - Mar 21 with 1167 views | Garyjack |
| Lies, damned lies and statistics on 19:55 - Mar 21 by hobo |
It's just a matter of time before we hit capacity. Italy have twice the number of ICU's as we do, and hit capacity some time ago, hence why they are in the situation of a coronavirus patient dying every 2 minutes |
It's just a theory, but Italians have a totally different culture and family life to us in the sense that they live in large families. Sometimes 3 or even 4 generations of the same family live in the same household. Put them on lockdown and it's potentially a recipe for disaster.
As i said, it's just a theory, but it seems highly irregular for the death rate to be so high compared to the UK when the first reported cases were only 24 hours apart. [Post edited 21 Mar 2020 21:05]
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