As QPR, winless in 16 matches and firmly bottom of the Premier League table, face up against local rivals Fulham, LFW considers some difficult decisions facing the club in the next month.
Premier League >>> Saturday December 15, 2012 >>> Kick Off 3pm >>> Loftus Road, London, W12
Last night’s Evening Standard told me that Fiorentina are ready to “test QPR’s resolve” with a £5.8m bid for midfielder Esteban Granero in January. I guess your reaction to that story is dictated by exactly how much chance you think QPR actually have of escaping from a season that chairman Tony Fernandes rightly branded this week “a total disaster.” Personally, if I was making the decisions, Fiorentina wouldn’t find my resolve particularly strong. In fact they’d probably find me in the driver’s seat of a club car, accelerating towards the Channel, with Esteban in the passenger seat and a lawyer in tow in case they try to weasel out of the deal.
That’s not me jumping on the anti-Granero bandwagon that has been picking up a head of steam recently. I still think he was one of our better signings during Mark Hughes’ disastrous reign, coming at a good age with an admirable attitude, but he’s clearly lost heart and faith in his game of late and is therefore currently only slightly more use than those who couldn’t give a toss in the first place of which QPR have a ridiculously long list.
I just think that QPR are approaching a point where they’re going to have to face facts. As each week passes without a victory the comparisons come and go. “Don’t worry,” people said when Rangers didn’t win any of their first 12, “neither did Everton in 1994 and they survived.” Now the run has stretched to 16 games somebody has dug up a Sheffield United example from 1990 where they failed to win any of their first 16 games and actually ended up finishing thirteenth after a remarkable turn around instigated by manager Dave Bassett that at one stage included a run of seven straight victories against the likes of Chelsea and Manchester United.
These examples, and Tweets from people like Philip Beard about how much better things might be in a fortnight if QPR have picked up a couple of wins, are designed to fuel optimism among those who still have faith, stave off pessimism among those that who don’t, and most importantly keep those tills in the box office ringing. If anybody at QPR came out and admitted “yeh, to be honest, we’re screwed” then the outrageous decision to charge £28.50 for a ticket to watch this God awful side play West Brom at home in the cup would look even more ridiculous, and bring in even fewer punters than it’s going to already. Congratulations to whoever was in charge of pricing that game by the way, you’re a complete fucking moron.
But the example Rangers should be keeping in mind at all times is Derby County, who infamously went out of this league in the 2007/08 season with just one win and 30 defeats. Derby, like QPR, responded to a lousy start by sacking the manager (Billy Davies) and replacing him (with Paul Jewell) in the hope of instigating a turnaround in fortunes. Jewell, much like Redknapp, joined on November 28 just prior to an away match at Sunderland. Much like Redknapp he had six matches to play before the transfer window and much like Redknapp several of them looked winnable – as well as Sunderland, Derby faced Middlesbrough and Blackburn at home and Newcastle away who they had actually beaten at home in September. They lost five and drew one of those games and then, much like it could about to be for QPR, it was decision time.
The decision Derby made was the fight wasn’t lost, and Jewell was allowed to go out and add six more players permanently and a couple on loan – Robbie Savage, Emmanuel Villa, Laurent Robert, Roy Carroll and Alan Stubbs were among his picks. Derby responded to the overhaul by losing 11 and drawing three of their last 14 matches. Upon relegation Jewell added a further eight players to his team, and two more in January. Derby responded to this by finishing eighteenth in the Championship and Jewell resigned midway through the campaign.
Now you could easily say that I’m being selective with my case study here. Derby were newly promoted and QPR are not, Billy Davies was perhaps sacked prematurely and Mark Hughes certainly wasn’t, and Davies admitted himself that he’d promoted the side one year into a three year plan and it had happened too soon. There was also the small matter of Jewell appearing in a News of the World sting telling a dominatrix not to be “nice” to him and to tell him how much he was sweating shortly after his appointment, and more to the point shortly after he’d lectured the players on their responsibility as role models. I worked in the city at the time and anecdotally heard from the players that Jewell was finished in their eyes from that moment.
But consider where Derby are now. They replaced Jewell with Burton Albion’s Nigel Clough who arrived at the club to find a squad of 46 professional players, more than half of whom had been added over the previous 18 months by first Davies and then Jewell in a frantic panicked attempt to stay in a league they were never good enough for in the first place. Clough initially had to separate the squad into two groups and hold morning and afternoon training sessions to make the situation more manageable for a coaching staff more used to Burton Albion’s 18 professionals supplemented by loans. And what Derby have found in the transfer window era that first of all it’s not easy to find takers for failed players, secondly it’s not easy to get players on big money to leave the club, and thirdly even if you do overcome those two problems there are only two periods each year when you can actually trade.
Since taking over Clough has moved 58 players out of Derby – 22 of whom were released on a free transfer including all of Jewell’s initial January intake. Now in their fifth season since that record breaking Premier League campaign, the Rams are tenth in the Championship, three points shy of the play offs. They’re still essentially crap, with not much more chance of promotion this year than bottom placed Peterborough, but there are small signs of recovery. It took Clough a decade to get Burton Albion into the Football League and it’s going to take at least that long for the Rams to contend for promotion again.
Which brings me back to QPR. Win a couple of games before January and bingo, Rangers are back in the fight with a manager who has an enviable track record of saving teams from such dire situations - a manager far superior to Paul Jewell it must be said. Rangers have clearly improved under Redknapp already, but they won’t face three teams as limited as Sunderland, Villa and Wigan back to back again this season until they play the same three sides again at the end of March. Redknapp’s ruse to tell QPR he was about to become the Ukraine manager was clearly done with having those three games to begin with in mind and his demeanour in the post-Wigan press conference was clearly that of a man who expected more than the three points he’s been able to cobble together so far.
Get to January with a win and three defeats, or without a win at all, and then allow Redknapp to go out chasing Robbie Keane and Nicolas Anelka would be the equivalent of the gambling addict chasing his losses on the roulette machine in the Kilburn High Road Ladbrokes. We’d merely be wasting each day that went by from the time it’s going to take to recover from this “disaster”. If, and it is an if at this stage because two wins could change everything, Rangers are as far adrift in January as they are now or even worse off then I think it’s time to have an honest and frank assessment of what’s required. For instance, if offers can be found for both Rob Green and Julio Cesar in January the obvious thing to do would be to sell one or neither for fear of leaving the team short of keepers for the second half of the season. But chances to offload these big earners won’t come around too frequently – virtually nobody left Newcastle’s relegated team in 2010 and it was only because they were still able to bring 40,000 people into home matches in the division below and bounce back immediately that they could sustain it. QPR’s ground holds 18,000, and the chances of the team they have now winning promotion from the Championship next season are zero.
So, with three home games from the next four and a transfer window looming large, we’re approaching a four week period that in my opinion could shape the future of the club for the very foreseeable future – years if they get it right, decades if they don’t.
Links >>> Opposition Profile >>> History >>> Referee >>> Podcast
Team News: To follow.
Elsewhere: Manchester City, six points behind in the title race following defeat to Man Utd, have a chance to cut that gap in half on Saturday lunchtime as they play first at a Newcastle side that may be in poor form but still represent an awkward opposition on their own patch. The other half of the top flight’s North East representation, Sunderland, got a long awaited win at home to Reading during the week to ease their relegation worries slightly but sadly for Man City they’re unlikely to follow that up with another success at Old Trafford in one of the 3pm kick offs and so even if Roberto Mancini can mastermind a win at St James Park it’s likely to be an exercise in staying in touch rather than gaining ground.
QPR are so poor that discussions about the title race almost feel like I’m writing about a different league altogether. Rangers simply have to start winning if the games involving teams above them are to have any relevance at all but, for now, let’s hope that Reading aren’t the latest side to gleefully hammer a nail into Arsenal’s coffin on the Monday Night Football. There’s no match for Southampton this weekend with Chelsea off pisballing about in some tinpot international ball of irrelevance over in Japan so they can’t get away, while fellow strugglers Wigan and Villa are at Norwich and Liverpool respectively – games they should lose but might not if you see what I mean.
That just leaves the two Sunday games. Spurs host Swansea in the early one, and as West Brom are hosting West Ham that’s on the television as well because whenever West Ham play anybody it’s on the television, presumably because they’re so wonderful to watch presumably. Blowing bubbles and all that. Lovely.
Referee: Since the catastrophic refereeing display he turned in at Bolton last season, Martin Atkinson had been spared QPR appointments – or the other way around – for a good few months prior to the recent 1-0 defeat at Stoke. As that passed off with few incidents of note, the authorities have given Rangers a quick fire Atkinson double. That Bolton game was part of a very poor overall 2012 for somebody who was previously considered one of the league’s top officials. His appointment to last weekend’s Manchester derby, and the decent display he produced, perhaps signals a return to form which will hopefully continue into this weekend. Of course, given that QPR have only really had one offside goal at Arsenal go against them this season, it’s down to Rangers to actually make the game competitive first before the referee matters. For Atkinson’s ever growing QPR case history click here.
QPR: Numbers can be cruel things can’t they? Let’s rattle through these quickly shall we? So it’s now 16 games into the 2012/13 season and still no win for QPR who have now broken the record set at 15 by Swindon Town in 1993/94 – a run the Robins broke with a win over QPR. The R’s are now on a par with the Sheffield United team of 1990/91 which didn’t win until the seventeenth attempt but did eventually finish thirteenth after an extraordinary run of seven straight victories through January and February. QPR have conceded 13 at home – only Reading, Wigan and Swansea have shipped more – and 16 away – only Reading, Southampton and Norwich have done worse. That’s 29 in total which only Wigan, Reading and Southampton can better (if better is the right word). More to the point, QPR have only scored five goals at home in the league which is two less than Stoke who are next worst – Reading and Wigan directly above Rangers in the table have scored 12 and 13 home goals respectively. QPR’s last home league win was the first Sunday in May against Stoke City, some 17 league matches ago.
Fulham: If numbers are cruel for QPR, they’re bizarre for Fulham. They’ve conceded 27 goals this season, only two fewer than QPR, and lost 14 points from winning positions this season. Only Wigan have lost more than Fulham at home and they’ve only managed a solitary away win so far this season at Wigan – they were held to draws at Southampton and Reading. The 2-1 home win against Newcastle on Monday ended a run of seven without a win, five hours without a goal, and three defeats from four matches. And yet Fulham are, rightly, seen as doing well this season. Funny things numbers. Feeling optimistic all of a sudden? Don’t. QPR haven’t scored a goal against Fulham in six attempts dating back to 1983.
Prediction: Reigning Prediction League champion Nathan McAllister writes….
“Despite the best efforts of Tony Fernandes to stay positive and ‘leave no stone unturned’ to try and fix the mess that Rangers find themselves in, there seems to be an air of resignation hanging over players and supporters this week. Last week felt like the last great opportunity to get the win – an elusive away one at that – that would finally kick-start Rangers’ season, and when Rangers went ahead, totally against the run of play with 20 minutes left, it seemed like their luck was finally about to change. For Wigan to equalise within three minutes was a real kick in the teeth and seemed to confirm that Rangers’ season is, indeed, doomed. They are now eight points from safety, and the squad doesn’t seem to have anywhere near the level of determination, belief, cohesion and quality required to close the gap.
“I still think it very unlikely that Rangers will fail to win a single game this season, but it’s very difficult to see where it’s going to come. It may come this Saturday against Fulham, but it doesn’t seem very likely. We will be going into pretty much every game now as underdogs, hoping to catch the opposition on a bad day. Fulham have more than enough quality to turn us over comfortably. Most eyes will be on Dimitar Berbatov as the main threat, but as Clive highlighted in his scout report, they have in Damien Duff a player who relishes playing against full-backs with dubious work ethics, and we have plenty of those.
“I really hope Redknapp gives Ale Faurlin a chance in midfield. Derry, Diakite, Granero and Park have all offered very little in (at least) the last couple of games and I think we need Ale back in that ‘double pivot’ position alongside Mbia. Next thing for Harry, assuming he has the man-management skills he’s often credited with, is to get Granero motivated playing again. Even if he has become as disaffected as rumours suggest, play him in his favoured position central and a little further forward, and let him put himself in the shop window if that’s what he wants. Finally, please, please, please drop Bosingwa. I don’t think any of these changes will be enough to save our season, or even enough to get something on Saturday, but at least I would feel we are giving ourselves the best chance.
“Unfortunately, Redknapp has not spent as much time watching our players this season as us fans, and I’m expecting a few more weeks of frustrating team selections and disappointing results before we see him picking our best side.”
Prediction: QPR 0 Fulham 1
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