| Irish General Election 15:42 - Feb 9 with 17021 views | BrianMcCarthy |
Seismic shift to the left in Ireland today.
Exit polls suggesting that left parties are heading for 45% of the vote.
So many fascinating issues arising now:
Are Sinn Féin now on a par with the right-wing monoliths of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael?
Will either of them get into coalition-bed with Sinn Féin?
Can Sinn Féin be trusted in Government?
Have Sinn Féin left violence behind?
Will Ireland, could Ireland, actually have a Left-Wing Government in the near future?
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| Irish General Election on 21:34 - Feb 10 with 1586 views | BazzaInTheLoft |
| Irish General Election on 19:46 - Feb 10 by Rangersw12 |
Nm [Post edited 10 Feb 2020 21:52]
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The IRA don’t have a copyright on that slogan.
Edited for your sensibilities. [Post edited 10 Feb 2020 21:40]
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| Irish General Election on 21:42 - Feb 10 with 1556 views | JimmyR |
| Irish General Election on 15:34 - Feb 10 by CiderwithRsie |
Seems to me that this may make a united Ireland slightly less likely for the next few years.
The last couple of elections in NI (the General Election and the European and local elections last summer) showed a slight shift away from SF and the DUP towards the Alliance, the SDLP and "Official" Unionists. Combine that with Republicans being overwhelmingly anti-Brexit, some moderate Unionists feeling the same way, the future border in the Irish Sea, and a shift in the younger generation away from sectarian politics anyway and the idea of merging with the Republic looks at least a possible runner.
But install a Sinn Fein govt in Dublin right at the point they are losing ground in the North and I think all those bets are off. Unless SF decides now is the time to grow up and really cut off all links to organised crime in NI and elsewhere instead of just window dressing.
Plus, I'm not really sure what SF want out of govt - they seem to be running as the left-populist party on an anti-austerity wave, but apparently opinion polls also show their voters as being most against tax rises. It reminds me a bit of 5 Star in Italy, there comes a time when you can't promise more spend and less tax simultaneously and deliver while in govt |
Honestly believe what you like!
-Borris is planning to leave NI in the EU single market.
-Sinn Fein have publicly stated a desire to have a reunification poll within the next 5 years and have just made massive gains in the south
-The DUP have alienated their own supporters to the point that it’s unlikely they have a majority for the next election (MLA) or any potential reunification poll and they are in the minority for NI at Westminster following the UK election
My favourite part is that the DUP are the architects of this by being socially conservative and a bit backward on abortion, gay marriage etc.
I've no idea how you can think any of the above makes a united Ireland less likely on today of all days. But as you say...we will see! |  | | |
| Irish General Election on 21:43 - Feb 10 with 1554 views | BrianMcCarthy |
| Irish General Election on 21:23 - Feb 10 by MrSheen |
I grew up listening to tapes of the Wolfe Tones in the car. At the height of Poguemania, I thought it would be fun to go and see them at the National in Kilburn High Road. The place was packed out with young Londoners like me, roaring along to the hits. I had a sudden revelation that nothing would have pleased the bloodthirsty old bstrds more than inspiring one of their audience into laying a bomb to kill their friends or neighbours. Ugh, never again. |
I don't think they're into violence, to be honest. I think they're just crap musicians who pretend to be to sell records and gigs to the idiots who live in the past. Which I think is even worse, somehow. Cynical and opportunistic.
I used to detest them, but now they're just relics. Them, and that cretin Waterford, and Dessie Ellis, they're the equivalent of the Japanese soldiers who spent decades in the jungle not realising the war was over. | |
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| Irish General Election on 21:45 - Feb 10 with 1544 views | BrianMcCarthy |
| Irish General Election on 21:42 - Feb 10 by JimmyR |
Honestly believe what you like!
-Borris is planning to leave NI in the EU single market.
-Sinn Fein have publicly stated a desire to have a reunification poll within the next 5 years and have just made massive gains in the south
-The DUP have alienated their own supporters to the point that it’s unlikely they have a majority for the next election (MLA) or any potential reunification poll and they are in the minority for NI at Westminster following the UK election
My favourite part is that the DUP are the architects of this by being socially conservative and a bit backward on abortion, gay marriage etc.
I've no idea how you can think any of the above makes a united Ireland less likely on today of all days. But as you say...we will see! |
I think there's a possibility that Rosie is right, Jimmy.
At the very least, it's a good point well made. | |
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| Irish General Election on 21:54 - Feb 10 with 1521 views | BazzaInTheLoft |
| Irish General Election on 21:45 - Feb 10 by BrianMcCarthy |
I think there's a possibility that Rosie is right, Jimmy.
At the very least, it's a good point well made. |
What are the Irish Labour Party like Brian? | | | |
| Irish General Election on 22:01 - Feb 10 with 1509 views | robith |
| Irish General Election on 17:02 - Feb 10 by ElHoop |
Oh fair enough thanks. I didn't know that!
I think that the most northern point of Ireland is not actually in Northern Ireland is it? |
Correct.
If you ever get a chance to visit, Donegal is a beautiful place. Partly because partition cut it off from everywhere, but it's eerily remote. Some cracking local boozers and wild coastline |  | | |
| Irish General Election on 22:02 - Feb 10 with 1505 views | JimmyR |
| Irish General Election on 21:45 - Feb 10 by BrianMcCarthy |
I think there's a possibility that Rosie is right, Jimmy.
At the very least, it's a good point well made. |
He/she may well be.... I don't know everything/anything
But I do spend a lot of time in NI! | | | |
| Irish General Election on 22:23 - Feb 10 with 1469 views | BrianMcCarthy |
| Irish General Election on 21:54 - Feb 10 by BazzaInTheLoft |
What are the Irish Labour Party like Brian? |
Dead.
No appeal to the voters, seen as too aloof and intellectual (unfair, maybe), quite rightly mistrusted for going into power with FF twice after promising not to.
They're gone. Their candidate should have been vying for my No. 1. Instead, I could only justify a No.9 vote. | |
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| Irish General Election on 22:24 - Feb 10 with 1465 views | BrianMcCarthy |
| Irish General Election on 22:02 - Feb 10 by JimmyR |
He/she may well be.... I don't know everything/anything
But I do spend a lot of time in NI! |
You're very well researched, Jimmy. It's been interesting reading your posts. | |
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| Irish General Election on 22:46 - Feb 10 with 1428 views | JimmyR |
| Irish General Election on 22:24 - Feb 10 by BrianMcCarthy |
You're very well researched, Jimmy. It's been interesting reading your posts. |
Thank you Brian
Not sure which comedian said it but...
The trouble with 'taking back control' of your borders comes when you have drawn them over someone else's country
In any case let's hope everyone can be tolerant and get along because they can't in palestine/israel or India/pakistan
So there has been some progress at least! | | | |
| Irish General Election on 23:08 - Feb 10 with 1394 views | BazzaInTheLoft |
| Irish General Election on 22:23 - Feb 10 by BrianMcCarthy |
Dead.
No appeal to the voters, seen as too aloof and intellectual (unfair, maybe), quite rightly mistrusted for going into power with FF twice after promising not to.
They're gone. Their candidate should have been vying for my No. 1. Instead, I could only justify a No.9 vote. |
Sounds similar to some sections of the Labour Party over here too. Cheers. | | | |
| Irish General Election on 23:50 - Feb 10 with 1351 views | Boston |
| Irish General Election on 22:46 - Feb 10 by JimmyR |
Thank you Brian
Not sure which comedian said it but...
The trouble with 'taking back control' of your borders comes when you have drawn them over someone else's country
In any case let's hope everyone can be tolerant and get along because they can't in palestine/israel or India/pakistan
So there has been some progress at least! |
Whomever the next government is, I hope they can create a Minister for Leather for Kate O'Connell. | |
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| Irish General Election on 02:24 - Feb 11 with 1310 views | CiderwithRsie |
| Irish General Election on 21:42 - Feb 10 by JimmyR |
Honestly believe what you like!
-Borris is planning to leave NI in the EU single market.
-Sinn Fein have publicly stated a desire to have a reunification poll within the next 5 years and have just made massive gains in the south
-The DUP have alienated their own supporters to the point that it’s unlikely they have a majority for the next election (MLA) or any potential reunification poll and they are in the minority for NI at Westminster following the UK election
My favourite part is that the DUP are the architects of this by being socially conservative and a bit backward on abortion, gay marriage etc.
I've no idea how you can think any of the above makes a united Ireland less likely on today of all days. But as you say...we will see! |
Maybe I'm not explaining myself well.
I agree that having NI in the single market + the screw-ups by the DUP make a united Ireland more likely. That's been true for several months if not a year or two. So I've been sort-of expecting that to be on the cards in the next few years.
What I'm saying is that big gains for SF in The Republic (as opposed to if they were winning big in the north) is a barrier to unification.
A border poll has to take place in the north so it doesn't help if SF win every single seat in the Republic, if opinion in the north is against it. Dublin doesn't get to call a border poll, that's up to the British Sec of State for NI. Effectively the North has a veto because it's unlikely the SoS would call a poll unless the North wanted it and anyway only they get to vote in it. SF voters in the Republic don't get a say on calling it or vote in it. So it doesn't matter a toss how many of them there are.
And it seems to me that SF winning big in the Republic makes it much less likely that Northern protestants, or maybe even some moderate catholics, would vote for unification in a border poll. Being run by Varadkar is one thing, being run by SF quite another.
Whereas if FG had held on a lot of people in the north might have thought "well, Boris has screwed us, the DUP are backward, the Republic seems to have got over all that De Valera Catholic stuff on abortion etc, maybe The Future Is Green, not Orange?"
Plus I don't see any sign that SF did well in the Republic because people there want to push the border thing anyway, more because they're p*ssed off with FG and FF.
I still think unification is way, way more likely than it was 10 or even 5 years ago. I just think it is now less likely than it was at Christmas. | | | |
| Irish General Election on 07:08 - Feb 11 with 1232 views | distortR |
| Irish General Election on 19:58 - Feb 10 by BrianMcCarthy |
Another one celebrated with a public rendition of "Cm'out you Black and Tans".
They still have some Neanderthals. |
Mate, I hope our away kit designer for next season isn't reading this, you might have given them an idea. | | | |
| Irish General Election on 08:07 - Feb 11 with 1173 views | WatfordR |
| Irish General Election on 02:24 - Feb 11 by CiderwithRsie |
Maybe I'm not explaining myself well.
I agree that having NI in the single market + the screw-ups by the DUP make a united Ireland more likely. That's been true for several months if not a year or two. So I've been sort-of expecting that to be on the cards in the next few years.
What I'm saying is that big gains for SF in The Republic (as opposed to if they were winning big in the north) is a barrier to unification.
A border poll has to take place in the north so it doesn't help if SF win every single seat in the Republic, if opinion in the north is against it. Dublin doesn't get to call a border poll, that's up to the British Sec of State for NI. Effectively the North has a veto because it's unlikely the SoS would call a poll unless the North wanted it and anyway only they get to vote in it. SF voters in the Republic don't get a say on calling it or vote in it. So it doesn't matter a toss how many of them there are.
And it seems to me that SF winning big in the Republic makes it much less likely that Northern protestants, or maybe even some moderate catholics, would vote for unification in a border poll. Being run by Varadkar is one thing, being run by SF quite another.
Whereas if FG had held on a lot of people in the north might have thought "well, Boris has screwed us, the DUP are backward, the Republic seems to have got over all that De Valera Catholic stuff on abortion etc, maybe The Future Is Green, not Orange?"
Plus I don't see any sign that SF did well in the Republic because people there want to push the border thing anyway, more because they're p*ssed off with FG and FF.
I still think unification is way, way more likely than it was 10 or even 5 years ago. I just think it is now less likely than it was at Christmas. |
FWIW, I think unification is eventually inevitable, but I don't think it's necessarily going to be any time soon. It'll happen as a consequence of gradual change in circumstance: the disintegration of the UK, with NI cast adrift (will there be a point to Unionist parties any more?) and Scotland gaining independence; the addition of SF to the political mainstream in the South (potentially, but again over time, removing/reducing the demons surrounding their history); the economic benefits of avoiding any kind of trade barrier/border in Ireland.
If all of these come to pass over time, the emphasis regards the question of unification will become "Why not" rather than "Why". I don't see any need to push for unification sooner rather than later though, when it's something that will in all likelihood make sense in its own good time. |  | | |
| Irish General Election on 08:24 - Feb 11 with 1149 views | BrianMcCarthy |
| Irish General Election on 08:07 - Feb 11 by WatfordR |
FWIW, I think unification is eventually inevitable, but I don't think it's necessarily going to be any time soon. It'll happen as a consequence of gradual change in circumstance: the disintegration of the UK, with NI cast adrift (will there be a point to Unionist parties any more?) and Scotland gaining independence; the addition of SF to the political mainstream in the South (potentially, but again over time, removing/reducing the demons surrounding their history); the economic benefits of avoiding any kind of trade barrier/border in Ireland.
If all of these come to pass over time, the emphasis regards the question of unification will become "Why not" rather than "Why". I don't see any need to push for unification sooner rather than later though, when it's something that will in all likelihood make sense in its own good time. |
Yes, it's been happening since 1993 and that British statement from Major.
From then on, all of Ireland knew that Britain was no longer interested and that it was up to us to solve the historical legacy issues and to get it done.
It's now a question of when, not if. | |
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| Irish General Election on 08:33 - Feb 11 with 1131 views | WatfordR |
| Irish General Election on 08:24 - Feb 11 by BrianMcCarthy |
Yes, it's been happening since 1993 and that British statement from Major.
From then on, all of Ireland knew that Britain was no longer interested and that it was up to us to solve the historical legacy issues and to get it done.
It's now a question of when, not if. |
Back to the GE. In the event of no deal being concluded that led to a working government, would SF realistically be able to stand a greater number of candidates in another election? If so, they'd presumably be confident of taking more seats and ultimately forming a government.
Perhaps that in itself suggests that FF/FG will prop each other up to avoid that? What do you think Brian? | | | |
| Irish General Election on 08:50 - Feb 11 with 1108 views | BrianMcCarthy |
| Irish General Election on 08:33 - Feb 11 by WatfordR |
Back to the GE. In the event of no deal being concluded that led to a working government, would SF realistically be able to stand a greater number of candidates in another election? If so, they'd presumably be confident of taking more seats and ultimately forming a government.
Perhaps that in itself suggests that FF/FG will prop each other up to avoid that? What do you think Brian? |
Ya, good questions.
I don’t think anyone knows that yet. On the one hand SF probably left 6-7 seats behind them, on the other a lot of their candidates were elected without facing the scrutiny they would expect if there was another GE - one of their candidates went on holiday during the campaign FFS! 😀
So, maybe they might be inclined to stick with what they have?
A FF/FG coalition would further erode the identities of both and confirm SF as the main power in opposition. Long-term damage. However their current TD’s, especially FF’s, may be power-hungry enough to sacrifice long-term for the short-term gain. [Post edited 11 Feb 2020 8:54]
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| Irish General Election on 08:53 - Feb 11 with 1101 views | MrSheen |
Background reading?
I’m a reader of the Planet Rugby forum. About half of the posters there are Irish (fair-weather fans? I couldn’t possibly comment) and they have a LOT to say about everything. They’ve been jeering mightily at the Brits and Nordies over the last few years for the ignorant folly of Brexit, but it’s not so funny now the fox is loose in their barn. As a rugby board, the grating voice of middle class Dublin is very heavily represented, but over 100 pages, dive in.
http://forum.planetrugby.com/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=92616&start=4240 |  | | |
| Irish General Election on 09:19 - Feb 11 with 1078 views | WatfordR |
| Irish General Election on 08:53 - Feb 11 by MrSheen |
Background reading?
I’m a reader of the Planet Rugby forum. About half of the posters there are Irish (fair-weather fans? I couldn’t possibly comment) and they have a LOT to say about everything. They’ve been jeering mightily at the Brits and Nordies over the last few years for the ignorant folly of Brexit, but it’s not so funny now the fox is loose in their barn. As a rugby board, the grating voice of middle class Dublin is very heavily represented, but over 100 pages, dive in.
http://forum.planetrugby.com/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=92616&start=4240 |
Mate, this site and its posters may mean more to you if you read it regularly, but I'm not wading though 100 pages to try and work who's a troll, who's an idiot and who's being straight about what they say.
What I will say is the little poll at the top of the thread about who voted for who couldn't be much more out of step with the actual result, and indeed how Dublin voted. | | | |
| Irish General Election on 09:22 - Feb 11 with 1075 views | CamberleyR |
| Irish General Election on 22:23 - Feb 10 by BrianMcCarthy |
Dead.
No appeal to the voters, seen as too aloof and intellectual (unfair, maybe), quite rightly mistrusted for going into power with FF twice after promising not to.
They're gone. Their candidate should have been vying for my No. 1. Instead, I could only justify a No.9 vote. |
A bit like the Lib Dems over here then after getting into bed with the Tories for five years and going along with austerity. |  |
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| Irish General Election on 09:26 - Feb 11 with 1859 views | BrianMcCarthy |
| Irish General Election on 09:01 - Feb 11 by WatfordR |
I know they say a week is a long time in politics, but it seems a FF/FG government will only ultimately strengthen the move to SF over time. It begs the question for the disaffected; what's the difference between these two?
Unless as the next government, they could address the housing, health and "squeezed life" issues that seem to have dominated this election. Which is going to cost way more to fix than they will have to spend. |
Ya, agree with all of that.
They have plenty money to spend., of course, but only if they start taxing the uber-wealthy and corporations, which they won't. | |
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| Irish General Election on 09:27 - Feb 11 with 1856 views | BrianMcCarthy |
| Irish General Election on 09:22 - Feb 11 by CamberleyR |
A bit like the Lib Dems over here then after getting into bed with the Tories for five years and going along with austerity. |
Ya, same deal Camberley. | |
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