| TV rights value outlook 13:11 - Apr 8 with 3412 views | Shaky |
I posted the following earlier referencing the Swans article in the FT, but not only does it really deserve its own tread, but the usual trolls were also in the process of overrunning it.
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. . . As for the TV money outlook Kaplan is certainly bullish, and maybe he is right in the long term.
But the more I look at this the more medium term optimism is completely misplaced.
On the domestic front, did you see the second tranche of rights was pulled because the reserve was not met?
Not doubt this is because various potential steaming providers like Amazon/Google/(YouTube)/Facebook/failed to show up.
Ooops. That's seriously bad news, and almost certainly means domestic rights will generate lower total revenue for the first time since the deal beginning '04/05 kicked in. Despite myriad new broadcast options continuously being offered. It is classic product life-cycle maturity.
And as I read it, much of the optimism regarding foreign rights was based on excitement about the supposed entry of the aforementioned streamers who failed to show up a the last UK auction.
For each of the last two 3year frame agreements growth in domestic rights revenue has outpaced growth in foreign rights by an average of 40%.
Assuming a continuation of that pattern and the continued absence of those streamers the outlook for foreign rights is objectively nowhere near as bullish as has been widely touted.
I'd be very interested to know when exactly those Kaplan comments were made; that's certainly relevant to his propensity to bullshit as the deterioration in the fundamentals for TV rights revenue has only become apparent in the last few months. |  |
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| TV rights value outlook on 13:12 - Apr 8 with 2152 views | Shaky |
Premier League TV rights packages booted into long grass amid "cut-price" concerns
By Oliver Gill
City AM, Wednesday 7 March 2018
The Premier League has booted a decision on unsold TV rights packages into next month, as it faces being forced to accept a “cut-price deal” for the remaining 40 games.
Sky and BT Sport snapped up five of seven packages on offer for a total of £4.5bn in mid-February. But the remaining two sets of games have remained on the bench for three weeks.
Amid growing concern the world’s most popular sporting competition is struggling to find a buyer, well-placed sources today told City A.M. an announcement will likely not be made until next month.
Earlier this week it was reported bidders could have to wait until the summer for the Premier League to make a decision.
Media experts said packages F and G — which comprise 40 midweek and bank holiday matches — are unlikely to fetch £600m. This means despite more games being on offer, the Premier League will net lower proceeds for the 2019-22 seasons than the £5.1bn realised for the 2015-18 campaigns.
“I think the Premier League will have to do some kind of cut-price deal with someone to get the rights away,” said Mirabaud Securities analyst Neil Campling.
And after completing the rights auction within days last time around, the Premier League’s delay on the final two packages speaks volumes, he added.
This tells you [it has] an unofficial reserve price that basically hasn’t been met. It is struggling to sell them.
CCS Insights vice president Paolo Pescatore said: "It is quite unprecedented that the crown jewels of the UK TV sports market have been left unsold."
“Backfired”
Premier League officials divided up games for the latest three-year TV deal in hope of enticing new entrants such as tech giants Amazon, Facebook, Google and Twitter.
After winning four of the five packages last month, auction rules dictate Sky can only pick up one more package. BT, meanwhile, is less motivated to overpay for top-tier English TV rights after recently agreeing a deal to spearhead the UEFA Champions League coverage.
“The strategy to attract new bidders has clearly backfired,” said Pescatore.
Liberum media analyst Ian Whittaker said he expected Amazon to pick up one of the sets of games.
Campling added:
You may get some interest from Amazon. But Amazon will not be held hostage. Amazon does not overpay for assets, in fact, they do the opposite.
The Premier League is also expected to award international TV rights in the coming weeks.
“Maybe they are trying to secure other rights in other countries so they can announce other [two remaining UK] deals at the same time to save face,” said Campling.
The Premier League declined to comment.
http://www.cityam.com/281882/premier-league-tv-rights-packages-booted-into-long- | |
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| TV rights value outlook on 13:15 - Apr 8 with 2138 views | Shaky |
Contrast that with pretty wild bullishness as recently as late January:
+++++++++++++++++++++++++
Ampere: Premier League rights to pass £10bn mark; The value of Premier League football rights is set to break the £10 billion barrier for the first time, with Amazon emerging as a “significant potential bidder”, according to Ampere Analysis.
By Andrew McDonald
digital TV.com, 24 January 2018 @ 13:03
The research firm predicts that the total value for UK and international rights in the upcoming auction for three seasons from 2019 — 2022 will reach £10.9 billion — up from £7.37 billion in the previous auction.
Domestically Ampere predicts live rights will go for between £5.6 billion and £5.9 billion, marking an inflation rate of 9% and 15%. It said the international rights value could increase by 58% to reach £5.05bn.
Sky and BT will remain “strong and viable bidders” and are unlikely to pull back on spend to the point where there is a decrease in absolute value of the Premier League, according to the predictions.
Ampere said its ‘most likely scenario’ is that Sky takes four or five of the seven rights packages of 200 live games that are up for grabs, BT takes an additional two or three, while a third bidder — potentially Amazon or Liberty Global — takes one or two packages.
According to the predictions report, Amazon represents a “significant potential bidder for international rights”, and its involvement as a bidder could be a key factor in inflating international rights this time around.
However, it also said that any Amazon bid for UK rights would be limited to one of the smaller packages to “test the water this time around”.
Liberty Global, which owns Virgin Media in the UK, was cited as another possible new bidder having shown an increasing appetite for direct control of content in recent years, including Formula One rights.
“Unlike the bidding for the 2017 to 2019 rights, life is now very much less certain. What has changed is the very real threat that Amazon will look to take at least some of the UK and later on, international rights,” said Guy Bisson, Research Director at Ampere Analysis.
“At the same time, domestically, Sky and BT’s appetite to increase spend in line with the previous rates of inflation may have waned. The inflationary pressure will be focused on international rights and will be driven by the threat from Amazon and other potential new entrants.
”Sky and BT’s business rationales have both changed since the previous auction, with margin pressure and the difficulty of justifying sport spend to cross-sell broadband meaning each is competing on the same terms, according to the research.
The Ampere report made no mention of Facebook, which is said to have appointed Eurosport CEO Peter Hutton earlier this week as it looks to secure live sports rights. According to reports, Hutton will move to the social network after the 2018 Winter Olympics, which will take place in Pyeongchang, South Korea next month.
Link: https://www.digitaltveurope.com/2018/01/24/ampere-premier-league-rights-to-pass-
. . .which includes a highly bullish revenue projection. | |
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| TV rights value outlook on 13:20 - Apr 8 with 2130 views | TheResurrection |
| TV rights value outlook on 13:12 - Apr 8 by Shaky |
Premier League TV rights packages booted into long grass amid "cut-price" concerns
By Oliver Gill
City AM, Wednesday 7 March 2018
The Premier League has booted a decision on unsold TV rights packages into next month, as it faces being forced to accept a “cut-price deal” for the remaining 40 games.
Sky and BT Sport snapped up five of seven packages on offer for a total of £4.5bn in mid-February. But the remaining two sets of games have remained on the bench for three weeks.
Amid growing concern the world’s most popular sporting competition is struggling to find a buyer, well-placed sources today told City A.M. an announcement will likely not be made until next month.
Earlier this week it was reported bidders could have to wait until the summer for the Premier League to make a decision.
Media experts said packages F and G — which comprise 40 midweek and bank holiday matches — are unlikely to fetch £600m. This means despite more games being on offer, the Premier League will net lower proceeds for the 2019-22 seasons than the £5.1bn realised for the 2015-18 campaigns.
“I think the Premier League will have to do some kind of cut-price deal with someone to get the rights away,” said Mirabaud Securities analyst Neil Campling.
And after completing the rights auction within days last time around, the Premier League’s delay on the final two packages speaks volumes, he added.
This tells you [it has] an unofficial reserve price that basically hasn’t been met. It is struggling to sell them.
CCS Insights vice president Paolo Pescatore said: "It is quite unprecedented that the crown jewels of the UK TV sports market have been left unsold."
“Backfired”
Premier League officials divided up games for the latest three-year TV deal in hope of enticing new entrants such as tech giants Amazon, Facebook, Google and Twitter.
After winning four of the five packages last month, auction rules dictate Sky can only pick up one more package. BT, meanwhile, is less motivated to overpay for top-tier English TV rights after recently agreeing a deal to spearhead the UEFA Champions League coverage.
“The strategy to attract new bidders has clearly backfired,” said Pescatore.
Liberum media analyst Ian Whittaker said he expected Amazon to pick up one of the sets of games.
Campling added:
You may get some interest from Amazon. But Amazon will not be held hostage. Amazon does not overpay for assets, in fact, they do the opposite.
The Premier League is also expected to award international TV rights in the coming weeks.
“Maybe they are trying to secure other rights in other countries so they can announce other [two remaining UK] deals at the same time to save face,” said Campling.
The Premier League declined to comment.
http://www.cityam.com/281882/premier-league-tv-rights-packages-booted-into-long- |
Means nothing apart from the Premier league messing up their strategy and all that's left, the dregs, just aren't that appealing. Wait and see what happens.
Ignore this fraud. He just wants money from the Trust. |  |
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| TV rights value outlook on 13:22 - Apr 8 with 2127 views | E20Jack |
| TV rights value outlook on 13:20 - Apr 8 by TheResurrection |
Means nothing apart from the Premier league messing up their strategy and all that's left, the dregs, just aren't that appealing. Wait and see what happens.
Ignore this fraud. He just wants money from the Trust. |
I told him all this last summer. He disagreed then.
Now he has a google snippet to cut and paste he is automatically convinced.
Says it all. Tiresome. |  |
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| TV rights value outlook on 13:29 - Apr 8 with 2117 views | Shaky |
| TV rights value outlook on 13:20 - Apr 8 by TheResurrection |
Means nothing apart from the Premier league messing up their strategy and all that's left, the dregs, just aren't that appealing. Wait and see what happens.
Ignore this fraud. He just wants money from the Trust. |
And why don't you tell us what you base your repeated smear that I am trying to extact money from the Trust?
Put up or shut up, bigmouth. | |
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| TV rights value outlook on 13:34 - Apr 8 with 2099 views | E20Jack |
| TV rights value outlook on 13:29 - Apr 8 by Shaky |
And why don't you tell us what you base your repeated smear that I am trying to extact money from the Trust?
Put up or shut up, bigmouth. |
Not necessarily directly from the Trust. But using the Trust to improve a CV and to be able to embellish what you provided in the hope it brings other opportunities.
Similar to when you embellished the whole creation, birth and discovery of the legal angle when they were well aware of it and spoke of it, a full year before you first googled it. Not to mention the fact it is blindingly obvious.
Did you think it was a particularly difficult or hard conclusion to come to? | |
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| TV rights value outlook on 13:35 - Apr 8 with 2098 views | Shaky |
and while we wait for that which will never arrive, some numerical analysis:
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| TV rights value outlook on 13:39 - Apr 8 with 2082 views | E20Jack |
| TV rights value outlook on 13:35 - Apr 8 by Shaky |
and while we wait for that which will never arrive, some numerical analysis:
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What is "annual frowth"?
Curious like. | |
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| TV rights value outlook on 13:39 - Apr 8 with 2083 views | Shaky |
| TV rights value outlook on 13:34 - Apr 8 by E20Jack |
Not necessarily directly from the Trust. But using the Trust to improve a CV and to be able to embellish what you provided in the hope it brings other opportunities.
Similar to when you embellished the whole creation, birth and discovery of the legal angle when they were well aware of it and spoke of it, a full year before you first googled it. Not to mention the fact it is blindingly obvious.
Did you think it was a particularly difficult or hard conclusion to come to? |
As we have already established, it was one that the Trust's barrister could not reach 6 months after I first mentioned it.
Now fcuk off you little troll. | |
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| TV rights value outlook on 13:41 - Apr 8 with 2073 views | Shaky |
| TV rights value outlook on 13:39 - Apr 8 by E20Jack |
What is "annual frowth"?
Curious like. |
and there we have your sole redeeming quality; spell checking my spreadsheets you don't understand.
Thanks, Dim. | |
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| TV rights value outlook on 13:48 - Apr 8 with 2062 views | swanforthemoney |
International rights such as China are where the growth will be, surely ? |  |
| I stand in the North Stand
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| TV rights value outlook on 13:49 - Apr 8 with 2058 views | E20Jack |
| TV rights value outlook on 13:39 - Apr 8 by Shaky |
As we have already established, it was one that the Trust's barrister could not reach 6 months after I first mentioned it.
Now fcuk off you little troll. |
Nobody has established that other than you.
I asked you a direct question that you have refused to answer more than 10 times because it gives your little fraudster game away.
Do you think the fact that the Trust were unfairly prejudiced was a particularly difficult conclusion to come to looking at the case?
Take your time. | |
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| TV rights value outlook on 13:51 - Apr 8 with 2053 views | E20Jack |
| TV rights value outlook on 13:41 - Apr 8 by Shaky |
and there we have your sole redeeming quality; spell checking my spreadsheets you don't understand.
Thanks, Dim. |
Of course, how can anybody understand such complex copy and paste from silly websites and basic excell formulae.
The only thing you had to do yourself was type in the words and numbers and I don't think I have ever seen you get that right yet. | |
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| TV rights value outlook on 13:53 - Apr 8 with 2045 views | Shaky |
| TV rights value outlook on 13:48 - Apr 8 by swanforthemoney |
International rights such as China are where the growth will be, surely ? |
That's certainly the hope, but as I remarked above for the last two 3-year deals growth has been significantly lower overseas compared to abroad.
If you look at my spreadsheet snippet you'll see foreign's share of total TV revenue has also been declining for the last 3 years.
And look where it has come from; up 11x in 10 years. 122x in 15 years.
Those growth rates are simply unsustainable. | |
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| TV rights value outlook on 13:55 - Apr 8 with 2037 views | Shaky |
| TV rights value outlook on 13:49 - Apr 8 by E20Jack |
Nobody has established that other than you.
I asked you a direct question that you have refused to answer more than 10 times because it gives your little fraudster game away.
Do you think the fact that the Trust were unfairly prejudiced was a particularly difficult conclusion to come to looking at the case?
Take your time. |
You are a troll. Fcuk off. | |
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| TV rights value outlook on 13:58 - Apr 8 with 2030 views | Shaky |
| TV rights value outlook on 13:51 - Apr 8 by E20Jack |
Of course, how can anybody understand such complex copy and paste from silly websites and basic excell formulae.
The only thing you had to do yourself was type in the words and numbers and I don't think I have ever seen you get that right yet. |
"excell formulae"
Don't know how to spell the name of the most popular spreadsheet in the world?
Aren't you the expert!
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| TV rights value outlook on 14:01 - Apr 8 with 2021 views | exiledclaseboy |
Looks like your thread has been hijacked again, Shakes. |  |
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| TV rights value outlook on 14:04 - Apr 8 with 2015 views | Shaky |
| TV rights value outlook on 14:01 - Apr 8 by exiledclaseboy |
Looks like your thread has been hijacked again, Shakes. |
Yup, it's that fearsome tag-team duo, Dim & Dimmer, working their well rehearsed moves again.
They plan for hours and hours, dontcha know? | |
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| TV rights value outlook on 14:05 - Apr 8 with 2014 views | Shaky |
. . But you know what they say in advertising, ECB; you only knock the competition you genuinely fear! | |
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| TV rights value outlook on 14:05 - Apr 8 with 2011 views | E20Jack |
Silly me, how dare I hold a button down for a split second longer than I should on a whimsical football forum post.
Expert at spreadsheets? God no. Only for percentage over rounds. I used them in uni often though.
However if I was to use it and present it in some odd fashion to which I believe a basic and simple spreadsheet is impressive - I would most certainly make sure it is correct first. Something you have failed to do on every single one so far.
But I am sure someone appreciates the effort at least. | |
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| TV rights value outlook on 14:09 - Apr 8 with 1999 views | E20Jack |
| TV rights value outlook on 14:04 - Apr 8 by Shaky |
Yup, it's that fearsome tag-team duo, Dim & Dimmer, working their well rehearsed moves again.
They plan for hours and hours, dontcha know? |
...and get paid vast amounts of money for doing so by the Swansea board who are terrified of Shaky and his spreadsheets... or so that's your latest theory isn't it, or has it changed since.
It's a good one though, stick with it. | |
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| TV rights value outlook on 14:10 - Apr 8 with 1992 views | Shaky |
| TV rights value outlook on 14:05 - Apr 8 by E20Jack |
Silly me, how dare I hold a button down for a split second longer than I should on a whimsical football forum post.
Expert at spreadsheets? God no. Only for percentage over rounds. I used them in uni often though.
However if I was to use it and present it in some odd fashion to which I believe a basic and simple spreadsheet is impressive - I would most certainly make sure it is correct first. Something you have failed to do on every single one so far.
But I am sure someone appreciates the effort at least. |
Let me give you a little tip, Dim. Nobody is interested in your piss-poor justification. Because nobody takes anything you say seriously.
Except the Saviour. And that's only because nobody takes him seriously either.
Now fcuk off. | |
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| TV rights value outlook on 14:14 - Apr 8 with 1987 views | E20Jack |
| TV rights value outlook on 14:10 - Apr 8 by Shaky |
Let me give you a little tip, Dim. Nobody is interested in your piss-poor justification. Because nobody takes anything you say seriously.
Except the Saviour. And that's only because nobody takes him seriously either.
Now fcuk off. |
Again you are doing that mental thing of assuming your thoughts (which aren't even yours) are everyone else's. You try and convince yourself of that. It's all about perception. If you can fool yourself you may fool others. Although would be shocked if you do.
If only you had listened to me you would have known all of this month's ago instead of telling us all we had 20m surplus and the football deal only has signs of increasing.
You are slow but you are a trier, ill give you that. | |
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| TV rights value outlook on 14:15 - Apr 8 with 1981 views | TheResurrection |
| TV rights value outlook on 13:29 - Apr 8 by Shaky |
And why don't you tell us what you base your repeated smear that I am trying to extact money from the Trust?
Put up or shut up, bigmouth. |
I won't shut up and you are a fraud. Now fack off there's a good boy. | |
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| TV rights value outlook on 14:20 - Apr 8 with 1974 views | TheResurrection |
| TV rights value outlook on 13:53 - Apr 8 by Shaky |
That's certainly the hope, but as I remarked above for the last two 3-year deals growth has been significantly lower overseas compared to abroad.
If you look at my spreadsheet snippet you'll see foreign's share of total TV revenue has also been declining for the last 3 years.
And look where it has come from; up 11x in 10 years. 122x in 15 years.
Those growth rates are simply unsustainable. |
What's the difference between overseas and abroad? | |
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