| Robith's Relegation Index 09:42 - Oct 3 with 30642 views | robith |
I think we can all agree that our primary objective this year needs to be first and foremost to stay up. Further it's been say a mixed bag of a season, where even I, the perennial happy clapper was calling for the manager to be sacked after 5 games. I saw a comment in Brian's thread of someone saying "well, they'll just say Reading were crap" and that got me thinking. Yeah people will.
So I've tried to create a basic statistics system to see. Totally based in the numbers we need to post rather than subjective analysis of how games have gone.
So each week I'll post the index of our chance of survival. Indices work by converting separate numbers into a base (which is scored as 100) and working out how more or less likely an outcome is. 120 is the mark for something significantly being likely to happen, 80 is the mark for something being significantly unlikely to happen.
I've set the base for safety at 50 points. Can revise on feedback
So Gameweek 11:
Played: 11/46 - 24% of games played
Points: 13/50 - 26% of points needed
Based on this our current survival index is 109
At this stage we look like staying up, but it's not a sure thing - we're tracking very close to the baseline run rate.
Stay tuned for more exciting stats action as it comes |  | | |  |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 12:07 - Apr 11 with 5454 views | robith |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 10:02 - Apr 11 by qprd |
i find this a bit overcomplicated. isnt the current table itself what you should index against (i.e., QPRs points against the projected points of the 22nd ranked team) rather than an arbitrary baseline?
also, 50 points is not accurate as the staying up point
points required to stay up in the last few years (without having to rely on GD):
2018: 42
2017: 52
2016: 41
2015: 42
2014: 45 |
Well I asked for feedback in October butt! | | | |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 09:33 - Aug 25 with 5021 views | Esox_Lucius |
Will this be a feature of this seasons matches Robith? I found it quite fascinating, and quite accurate. |  |
| The grass is always greener. |
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| Robith's Relegation Index on 09:59 - Aug 25 with 4971 views | robith |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 09:33 - Aug 25 by Esox_Lucius |
Will this be a feature of this seasons matches Robith? I found it quite fascinating, and quite accurate. |
It will - I already have the tracker built but was gonna wait until the international break so there was some statistical significance to it | | | |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 10:55 - Aug 25 with 4896 views | Esox_Lucius |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 09:59 - Aug 25 by robith |
It will - I already have the tracker built but was gonna wait until the international break so there was some statistical significance to it |
Thank you, it's much appreciated. | |
| The grass is always greener. |
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| Robith's Relegation Index on 14:04 - Feb 3 with 4504 views | robith |
Hi all,
As I had someone ask about it on the game on saturday - sadly I had my bag stolen which had my laptop in it, which had the data sheets I use to make the stuff. Currently my enthusiasm to recreate 3 years of data I'd built is pretty low, so unless my IT team pull it out of the bag I won't be able to update this sadly | | | |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 14:24 - Feb 3 with 4474 views | CroydonCaptJack |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 14:04 - Feb 3 by robith |
Hi all,
As I had someone ask about it on the game on saturday - sadly I had my bag stolen which had my laptop in it, which had the data sheets I use to make the stuff. Currently my enthusiasm to recreate 3 years of data I'd built is pretty low, so unless my IT team pull it out of the bag I won't be able to update this sadly |
Sorry to hear that mate. Was it at the game? |  | | |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 14:30 - Feb 3 with 4450 views | robith |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 14:24 - Feb 3 by CroydonCaptJack |
Sorry to hear that mate. Was it at the game? |
no, it was on Friday night - meant I was in a great mood while we pissballed around for the first 45 minutes! | | | |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 14:44 - Feb 3 with 4407 views | dannyblue |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 14:04 - Feb 3 by robith |
Hi all,
As I had someone ask about it on the game on saturday - sadly I had my bag stolen which had my laptop in it, which had the data sheets I use to make the stuff. Currently my enthusiasm to recreate 3 years of data I'd built is pretty low, so unless my IT team pull it out of the bag I won't be able to update this sadly |
Oh no. That's sh!t. I was looking forward to an update. Hope you get your data back, and some insurance for a new laptop. |  | | |
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| Robith's Relegation Index on 14:51 - Feb 3 with 4368 views | CLAREMAN1995 |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 14:04 - Feb 3 by robith |
Hi all,
As I had someone ask about it on the game on saturday - sadly I had my bag stolen which had my laptop in it, which had the data sheets I use to make the stuff. Currently my enthusiasm to recreate 3 years of data I'd built is pretty low, so unless my IT team pull it out of the bag I won't be able to update this sadly |
Bad luck there robith there is really some rotton bastar*s around stealing personal property and IDs these days.Hopefully you can get the laptop replaced free/cheaply first then get all your stats back.
Nobody is hitting the panic button yet but we are sadly famous for long losing streaks which we can hopefully avoid this time around |  | | |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 15:47 - Feb 3 with 4301 views | CiderwithRsie |
Sorry to hear that Robith, just wanted to say that this has been a great little feature over the last couple of years and much appreciated.
Quite understand why you can't be ar*ed to rebuild it, but wanted you to know that the original effort wasn't wasted. |  | | |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 16:53 - Feb 3 with 4245 views | Phildo |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 14:04 - Feb 3 by robith |
Hi all,
As I had someone ask about it on the game on saturday - sadly I had my bag stolen which had my laptop in it, which had the data sheets I use to make the stuff. Currently my enthusiasm to recreate 3 years of data I'd built is pretty low, so unless my IT team pull it out of the bag I won't be able to update this sadly |
Nightmare - did you have encryption? |  | | |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 17:30 - Feb 3 with 4211 views | robith |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 16:53 - Feb 3 by Phildo |
Nightmare - did you have encryption? |
I do - it was my work laptop - so it's essentially useless to them, and work gets to claim it back.
Sadly I don't get to claim back my kindle, my darts, my glove and I had to spend £15 getting my annual travelcard (which didn't actually start until the following day!) replaced. Very annoying all told | | | |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 17:41 - Feb 3 with 4202 views | MrSheen |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 17:30 - Feb 3 by robith |
I do - it was my work laptop - so it's essentially useless to them, and work gets to claim it back.
Sadly I don't get to claim back my kindle, my darts, my glove and I had to spend £15 getting my annual travelcard (which didn't actually start until the following day!) replaced. Very annoying all told |
You have a darts glove? Coooooooooooooooooooooooooool!
 |  | | |
| Robith's Relegation Index on 17:41 - Feb 3 with 4200 views | Lblock |
I am fighting the urge to call the Sjoke or Birmingham games "must win".
Walking away from the game Saturday I just had a sinking feeling that we are in the midst of a Holloway or McClaren-esque type run and that buffer of 12 points could soon be down to a single win and a draw by the time the business end of the season comes around.
I know, I know... many predicted a fight for survival... and I did too until we signed Hugill and Wells and saw the development of Eze and Chair step up a notch. With the attacking riches we had/have all we needed to do was have a bit of steel and have defenders coached to actually defend.
Sadly I feel this squad is as ill equipped to deal with a relegation battle as the ODH one was but then Ollie came in and had a window to add Scowen, Freeman etc. That option not open to us this time.
Interesting few weeks ahead.
All will be well if we are clinical apparently. |  |
| Cherish and enjoy life.... this ain't no dress rehearsal |
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| Robith's Relegation Index on 17:34 - Feb 8 with 3997 views | R_from_afar |
This thread is starting to become very topical, more's the pity
 |  |
| "Things had started becoming increasingly desperate at Loftus Road but QPR have been handed a massive lifeline and the place has absolutely erupted. it's carnage. It's bedlam. It's 1-1." |
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