In a week when QPR owner Tony Fernandes was confirmed as the host for the Asian version of The Apprentice, will he get some early firing practice in this weekend as QPR hunt a first league win of the season at the twelfth time of asking?
Premier League >>> Saturday November 17, 2012 >>> Kick Off 3pm >>> Loftus Road , London , W12
This feels cruel. Two men with families at home, personal hopes and aspirations, feelings and emotions, sent into one of football's most intimate arenas to stand side by side for 90 minutes at the end of which one is likely to be fired.
For Nigel Adkins, any dismissal would be incredibly harsh. He's put himself under pressure by over-achieving and hauling Southampton up through two divisions in double quick time to a level they're not entirely comfortable at yet and is now, thanks to the arrival of some expensive acquisitions in the summer, supposed to perform a further miracle immediately or lose his job.
However, given that his managerial career recently with Scunthorpe and Southampton has brought four promotions and almost constant success, Adkins is unlikely to have to wait too long for another opportunity. If he does leave St Mary's he would be an incredibly attractive proposition to any club looking for a boss later this season. Two previous managers whose sackings were widely perceived as harsh having recently achieved promotion to the Premier League – Chris Hughton and Roberto Di Matteo – haven't done too badly since.
For Mark Hughes, his decision to take the QPR job looks more like career suicide with each passing game.
Hughes has always had a higher opinion of himself than anybody else, even when he was succeeding as a player with Manchester United and as a manager with Wales, Blackburn and Fulham. Now he's doing badly, that confidence is coming across as crass arrogance.
Hughes resigned from Fulham – a secure Premier League team and recent European finalists – citing lack of ambition. The general consensus was that he was a shoo in for the Aston Villa job, but those closer to Hughes said he was actually eyeing up the Chelsea position. To then sit unemployed for six months before turning up a mile down the road at Queens Park Rangers – relegation haunted in a first Premier League season for 15 years – made him look rather foolish and should have been a humbling experience.
Not so. Hughes beat the word 'ambition' to death and then, after narrowly escaping relegation courtesy of other results on the final day of last season, announced proudly that QPR would never be in the same position again under his guidance. Technically he was right, they're actually in a worse position now – the squad earns four times as much and is three places lower in the league.
But still the rhetoric comes. Again this week Hughes gave ill-advised quotes to the Fulham Chronicle that said, paraphrasing, the preparation of the team by Hughes and his coaching staff is second to none, if it doesn't work on the pitch then that's not their fault, and if Rangers decide to get another manager in the preparation will not be as good. Personally I think Hughes' preparation for some games this season – West Brom, Swansea , Reading in the league – has been abysmal. QPR have been picked off by strengths that even an idiot like me was able to highlight as a threat to be dealt with in the pre-match build up.
Against West Ham at home I don't think QPR could have possibly been any worse prepared or set up, although to give Hughes due credit to be able to pick out every single one of the Hammers' strengths and then play right to them in every possible way was, I suppose, meticulous in its own way.
As hard as it is to feel sorry for Hughes through all this arrogance, massive pay cheques and connections to both Man Utd and Chelsea, I do sympathise a bit. When he cited a lack of ambition at Fulham what he actually meant was they weren't willing to bankroll him in the transfer market and he's laboured under the misapprehension that ambition means spending money on players, and making another signing cures all ills, since he arrived at Loftus Road. But there weren't many dissenting voices in the summer when the likes of Ji Sung Park, Jose Bosingwa and others were riding down South Africa Road on white horses.
It felt like QPR had arrived, there was even talk of a possible push for European positions. It's only now, with the benefit of hindsight, that people are writing these players off as mercenaries who aren’t trying and don't care about the club. Even a few short weeks ago after good performances against Spurs and Chelsea this was being talked about as QPR's best ever side. I listen back to an Open All R's Podcast recorded prior to the Reading cup match and West Ham game and laugh at how giddy and optimistic we all were.
Hughes has staked his career on proven players. We have all seen how well these players can play in the past, and for whatever reason they're simply not performing to that standard now. This is frustrating for the supporters, who started to turn on one or two individuals at Stoke last week (and rightly so), and it must be massively more so for Hughes.
In addition Hughes, his coaches and the players themselves all say that the warnings about the relative strengths of West Ham, West Brom, Reading and others were spelt out before the game and then ignored by the players on the pitch. Again, it's hard not to feel a bit for Bowen, Hughes et al if they spend all week working on defensive set pieces and then concede a goal such as the one Everton got at Loftus Road recently which was purely down to Bobby Zamora not bothering to go with his man.
The problem is, the buck stops with the manager. Hughes cannot complain that he hasn't been backed with time, with money, with support from the fans, with support from the board. He's had everything he could have wished for, and he's done a bad job. It's easy to say "he should resign" but he knows as well as anybody that given the money he spent at Man City, the way he left Fulham, the job he's done at Loftus Road, the constant arrogance of the man, and the fact that none of the clubs he excelled with as a player are likely to take him on it's unlikely anybody will trust him with a Premier League job again anytime soon. It really is do or your career will die time for Sparky, starting this Saturday.
It's easy with hindsight to say we shouldn't have done this, signed that player, let that player go or whatever. Like I say, I haven't heard many dissenting voices about anything at QPR over the past nine months and I certainly didn't object much myself. It's also easy to just write off everybody in the current team as a mercenary who isn't trying. The key, as PhilMyR's put far better than I could in an excellent message board post this week, is to find a balance.
Hughes, or whoever replaces him, must find a way to balance the team between younger, hungrier players who see QPR as a big opportunity and desperately want to play here while perhaps lacking experience or ability at the moment and the older pros who have been there, seen it, done it, probably see QPR as being a bit beneath them but can lend experience and calmness to the side. Just like we did last season, we've been too quick to discard the likes of Adel Taarabt, Ale Faurlin, Clint Hill, Heidar Helguson, Jamie Mackie and others in favour of big name players who have twice the talent but half the attitude. The team needs a mixture of both. That, for me, has been Hughes' greatest failing
He brought these players in, he backed himself in the transfer market, he spoke about the importance of experienced players, he even bought several he'd worked with before. He has to find a solution to this and the overriding message coming out of his interviews and chats with his coaching staff on various podcasts and QPR Player pieces recently doesn't suggest they're capable of doing that.
Every time Hughes, Mark Bowen or Eddie Niedzwiecki speak at the moment the three things I pick up from their quotes are: they're surprised that this is happening, which I guess we all are; they don't know why it's happening; and they don't really know what they're going to do about it. Hughes' Chronicle quotes this week basically read to me as if he believes his preparation is as good as it can be, he's going to keep doing the same things, and if it doesn't work on the pitch it's not his fault. It didn't sound like the talk of a man who has identified the problem and is setting about fixing it. When it gets to that stage, I'm afraid it's time for a fresh pair of eyes.
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Team News: Hughes has renewed strength in the full back positions this weekend with injury prone duo Kieron Dyer and Fabio Da Silva both returning to fitness and available for selection. They will vie with the other sicknote Armand Traore and leader of the mercenary's union Jose Bosingwa for starting roles. In the centre of defence it's perm two from Ryan Nelsen, Anton Ferdinand, Clint Hill and Nedum Onuoha once again with Stephane Mbia serving the final match of his three game ban. Further forward Park Ji Sung remains sidelined and Bobby Zamora is very doubtful so I'd suggest it's highly likely we'll see the same midfield and attack that played at Stoke last week – and that's no bad thing in my opinion as it gets our best players on the pitch in a decent shape.
Southampton are missing Frazer Richardson, who has suffered a set back in his recovery from a thigh strain, and Richard Chaplow. Guly do Prado was left out of the draw with Swansea last week but is tipped for a recall at Loftus Road.
Elsewhere: The big game of the weekend in the Premier League is the Saturday lunchtime meeting of Arsenal and Spurs in the North London derby. The Gunners overhauled a ten point gap to finish above their bitter rivals last season, and Spurs haven't finished higher than Arsenal in the table since 1995. A big test for Andre Villas Boas then, and one he'll need to pass if the Tottenham jury isn't to return against him after a stuttering start to the campaign.
There are six fixtures at 3pm of which, it must be said, few stand out. Reading 's quest for a first win of the season isn't likely to get any easier with in-form Everton in town, although the Toffees are developing a concerning habit of dominating matches and not finishing teams off. Back on Merseyside, Liverpool welcome Wigan and manager Roberto Martinez who they approached about the vacant job at Anfield in the summer before settling on Brendan Rodgers. Wigan are proving awkward opponents this season and I certainly wouldn't rule out a coupon buster there.
Aston Villa are unlikely to move too far away from QPR however El Sackico goes at Loftus Road as they travel to Man City . They've won there once this season already, but a Premier League fixture is a different proposition from the League Cup tie and they'll find the going tough. Newcastle , struggling to emulate their successful campaign last term, welcome Swansea to St James' Park.
The pick of the 3pm kick offs is at The Hawthorns where Chelsea face their former player and coach Steve Clarke, and more to the point his new enterprising and dangerous West Brom side who could well cause an upset there and continue their unlikely push for European football next season. Norwich host Man Utd in the evening ESPN fixture.
Sky stretch the definition of Super Sunday to breaking point with a single Premier League game featuring Fulham and Sunderland as the main game after an earlier tear up between Millwall and Leeds. And on Monday West Ham are on the television – of course they are – playing Stoke this time which promises to be a glorious spectacle of footballing majesty.,
Referee: Rangers have their first appointment with Mike Dean this season for the Southampton match. The Liverpool-based official last took charge of the R's at Man City on the final day of last season when his red card provoked an on-pitch meltdown from Joey Barton that ended his QPR career. It was hard to argue with that decision, although Barton was struck first by Carlos Tevez, but Dean upset the R's more earlier in the season when he fell for a blatant dive by Daniel Sturridge in an FA Cup tie at Loftus Road and awarded Chelsea a match winning penalty. His full QPR case file is available here.
QPR: Rangers, with four draws and seven defeats from 11 matches so far, have made their worst start to a league season since 1968 when they were relegated. Three draws and two defeats from five games played is the league's worst home record. Only Sunderland (seven) have scored less than QPR's eight goals, and only Southampton (29) have conceded more than the 20 shipped by the not-so-Super Hoops. Only Blackburn (1996/97) have survived having taken just four points from their first ten matches in Premier League history, but Derby (2000/01) and Everton (1994/95) have survived having won none of their first 11.
Southampton: The Saints have played five, lost five, scored five and conceded 18. They are the only Premier League team that is yet to keep a clean sheet. Ohhh we've seen this film before haven't we? Enter Queens Park Rangers. The draw at home to Swansea last week was the first match this season where Southampton haven't fallen behind at some point but they couldn't convert the 1-0 lead into a second win of the season and despite the propensity to go behind in matches they've actually blown more points from winning positions this season (13) than anybody apart from Fulham (14). Their lone success remains a 4-1 home win against Aston Villa and they have lost eight of the other 11 fixtures.
Betting: Professional odds compiler Owen Goulding tells LFW…
"Watching QPR this season is taking us fans closer and closer to the building with padded cells. Around 1600 made the trip to Stoke, spending anything between 50-100 quid for the experience, and go pretty much exactly the same as they've seen week after week: little or no real effort or fight for the people who primarily pay their wages. If a plumber came round my house and said 'it'll cost you 50 quid for me to fix that pipe' and then after I'd paid him, he turned round and said 'well to be honest, I can't really be bothered but thanks for the money', we would be outraged. But week after week, this is in effect what is happening to our hard earned. We must be mad - and to emphasise how mad this season has made me, I actually think we are going to win at the weekend.
" Southampton were not ready for the Premier League and despite some spirited performances since their arrival, it is plain to see they are the worst side in the division. Even so, they sit above us but I feel that won't be the case come Saturday afternoon. It surely has to be a matter of time before some of our talented players find the net and thanks to our appalling record so far in front of goal, there are a few decent to score anytime prices floating about this week.
"I will be splitting my stakes between Granero (4/1 generally) and Diakite (12/1 Coral) to find the net. With Faurlin hopefully re-instated for good, it gives these two more licence to get forward and Diakite especially at home has been getting more and more chances in recent games. Even reading this back I feel I am writing my final preview before entry to the funny farm but the prices are too big based on chances per game so far and I am an eternal optimist. "Weekend Bets - Granero and diakite to score anytime: 4/1 and 12/1 as advised."
Prediction: Reigning Prediction League champion Nathan McAllister was, sadly, spot on with his Stoke call last week. Now he says….
"In introducing this section of the preview last week Clive raised the spectre of the LFW prediction curse in highlighting my somewhat less than spectacular record thus far. Guess what happened? Yep, my prediction of a 1-0 defeat was spot-on. However, despite calling a result right for only the second time this season, what did I go and do? Clean forget to log my prediction on the site. Ah, the inevitable complacency that follows a first league title. Let that be a lesson to you Bobby Manc! Either that or I’ve been afflicted with the LFW curse after all.
"One habit I definitely do seem to have picked up from Clive before he delegated predicting duties to me is the ability to put the kybosh on Rangers by predicting a win. I predicted wins against Swansea , West Ham and Reading and they gained just one single poxy point. Well, fear not. I’m in no mood to tempt fate this time around.
"I hate to say it, but my faith that Rangers were going to turn this around and ease clear of relegation has all but vanished over the last two games. We concede stupid goals, we don’t create enough chances, and when we do create chances we don’t take them. We’re a team in name only - 11 players, 11 different nationalities, some who care but as many who seemingly can’t be arsed. Will a change of manager help the situation? I really don’t know. I think if I was Tony Fernandes I would give him one last chance to win this weekend – after all there will not be a better one this season. Even if we don’t win, I think Hughes and his team should only go once a credible successor has been identified.
"So, no, I don’t think we’ll win, but I don’t necessarily think we’ll lose either. Southampton have really struggled to make the step up and are on course to finish with the worse defensive record in Premier League history. This fixture sees the worst home attacking record in the Premier League come up against the worst away defensive record. However, Southampton do have goals in them. In Lallana and Lambert they have players who tore up the league below last season and are now making their presence felt in this one. Both managers desperately need a win to keep their jobs, but with the way their luck’s going I think it’s a fair bet that fate will conspire against both of them."
Prediction: QPR 2 Southampton 2
First scorer: Cisse
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