The third part of our bumper season preview focuses on the five teams LFW believes will either be fine, or do enough to survive. Read on for profiles of QPR, Fulham, West Ham, West Brom and Norwich.
The time this article is posted should tell you something about the agonising that’s gone into it. Simply put, I wouldn’t be surprised to see any combination of Southampton, Reading, West Ham, Norwich, West Brom, Wigan, Swansea and Stoke relegated this season. The result of that is I have a team in thirteenth place in my predicted league standings that I also wouldn’t be at all surprised to see finish bottom. This morning I was certain Wigan would finally be relegated, then they signed two quality players today. I’ve no doubt my feelings will change again a thousand times before the end of the transfer window. In the meantime I’ve discounted Swansea who I think are certainties for the drop, and QPR and Fulham who I think should be alright and of the rest I’ve looked at the manager, the goal scoring potential, the team on paper and the potential spending power over the next two weeks and come up with this load of rubbish…
In 140 characters or less… Lucrative contracts for another big clutch of transfer window new comers. If at first you don’t succeed…
Last Season: If Queens Park Rangers won points at the same rate they do column inches they’d have conquered Europe long ago. After winning promotion from the Championship amidst a hail of controversy over the Alejandro Faurlin affair they were immediately plunged back into crisis when the successful Bhatia-Saksena boardroom partnership was broken up and Flavio Briatore re-assumed control of the club. Ticket prices sky rocketed and manager Neil Warnock immediately found his job under threat – two hallmarks of Briatore’s chairmanship. Warnock cobbled together the likes of Kieron Dyer and Danny Gabbidon in the summer transfer window and predictably lost his first game at home to Bolton 4-0. Briatore then sold the club to the dream football chairman Tony Fernandes giving Warnock a chance to strengthen his squad properly – but given only ten days to play with during which time Rangers played three more games the manager panicked, made risky purchases and lost faith with the Championship players who had won him promotion too quickly. Although results were encouraging initially, confidence drained away during a gruelling run of games against the division’s leading lights in November and December. By the time the winnable fixtures returned at Christmas Warnock was unsure of his best team, had ostracised Adel Taarabt, was struggling to keep control of Joey Barton and was overseeing a team lacking confidence. The woeful January transfer window signing of Federico Macheda smacked of desperation and Warnock was sacked after a dire FA Cup draw at League One side MK Dons. In his stead, Mark Hughes – who just seven months earlier had quit a more established Premiership side two miles down the road citing lack of ambition. Hughes, as he always does, took time to turn the team around but a miraculous comeback from two goals down to beat Liverpool kickstarted a run of five consecutive home wins to end the season and that was enough for safety. They survived on the last day, after an enthralling defeat at Man City where Barton finally blew up completely, courtesy of Bolton failing to win at Stoke. And breathe.
Transfers: Ji Sung Park is the headline acquisition but the budget buys of Samba Diakite and Junior Hoilett look shrewder. Andy Johnson and Ryan Nelsen bring experience and an improvement on what the club had before. Whether Rob Green is a better bet than Paddy Kenny remains to be seen after a difficult pre-season – Green came on a free from West Ham, Kenny has re-joined Neil Warnock at Leeds. Last season’s top scorer Heidar Helguson has gone to Cardiff while several big earners including Rowan Vine, Patrick Agyemang, Danny Shittu, Lee Cook and Peter Ramage have been released.
Manager: Mark Hughes risked making himself look rather stupid by joining QPR in January, but the gamble may yet pay off. Having impressed as manager of first Wales and then Blackburn the former Man Utd star was ushered into an undignified exit from Manchester City by the new owners there, but not before he’d furnished the place with the likes of Vincent Kompany who subsequently formed the backbone of Roberto Mancini’s title winning side. A slow start at Fulham blossomed into a top half finish and European qualification (albeit through the Fair Play League) but he quit the club this time last year citing its lack of ambition. Most thought he was going to walk into the vacant job at Aston Villa – Randy Lerner could have done a lot worse, and in fact proved that quite comprehensively by summoning the unfaltering powers of the McRelegator presumably as some sort of drunken double dare – whereas Hughes seemed to think he had a stab at the Chelsea job. Ultimately he got neither, and was roundly mocked in January for turning up at QPR who are a club of similar size to Fulham, in the same part of the world, but with a smaller ground and without the security that comes with ten consecutive years in the Premier League. Rangers looked heavy favourites to be relegated right until the very last seconds of the season but Hughes stuck two fingers up at his critics by masterminding a series of unlikely home wins, and then making some eye catching signings this summer while charismatic chairman Tony Fernandes plots new training grounds and stadiums. Perhaps he’s not so stupid after all.
Sack Race Odds – longest price is 12s with Bet Victor and Stan James, shortest is 10s available generally. Fifth favourite.
This Season: QPR failed to win any of their last 14 away matches last season, a run that stretched back to November. They conceded six in West London derbies on two occasions on the road and were generally a bit of a soft touch away from home. Hughes has responded to this by adding experience and physicality to his team. Ryan Nelsen, Andy Johnson and Ji Sung Park have been around the block a few times and Samba Diakite is a 14 stone human wrecking ball for the centre of midfield. There’s a physically intimidating look to this QPR team now and although the style of play preferred during pre-season means we’re not talking a Stoke City level of unpleasantness here, I can’t imagine Rangers will be winning any friends, or Fair Play leagues, this year – they had a league record equalling ten red cards last season and Diakite could pick up that many on his own this time around. In attack they look well equipped, with Djibril Cisse a very good each way bet for the golden boot at a whopping 80/1 after a prolific start to life at Loftus Road, now supported by new boy Junior Hoilett and a rejuvenated Adel Taarabt. At the back though things look less rosy. New goalkeeper Robert Green has had a disastrous summer in the pre-season games and Rangers look light of pace and quality at centre half. A physical team prone to scoring plenty of goals and shipping a load too suggests the headline making, thrills and spills aren’t over quite yet.
Odds: The bookies have QPR 13th, title odds ranging from 1000/1 to 3000/1 and relegation prices 11/2, 9/2, 5/1 and 4/1 depending on who you bet with.
If they were a character in The Simpsons… Krusty the Clown: A flawed individual, but entertaining source of farce nevertheless.
In 140 characters or less… Have a statue of an accused paedophile at their stadium. Have been known to give out inflatable hand clappers at home games. #footballfamily
Last Season: As you would expect from a team managed by Martin Jol, Fulham were very good to watch last season and ultimately pretty successful too. There were teething problems initially and a clash of personalities led striker Bobby Zamora to leap at the first offer that came his way in January and join QPR. But with Clint Dempsey in the form of his life, Moussa Dembele developing into one of the league’s best players and Pavel Pogrebnyak starting his Craven Cottage career well they were a dangerous side to play after Christmas and recorded wins against Arsenal, Newcastle and Liverpool. They also started to find a way to win away games and registered four in total. That may not be impressive for most sides but for Fulham, and their Smart Car full of travelling support, road wins have been a perennial problem for some time.
Transfers: Russian striker Pavel Pogrebnyak has been pinched from under their noses by Reading at the end of his loan spell and Clint Dempsey could follow him out of the door with Liverpool linked. Andy Johnson has followed Bobby Zamora to QPR which would leave only Bryan Ruiz and deep lying Moussa Dembele as senior attackers, and the latter is also courting moves elsewhere. To boost that, Hugo Rodallega has signed from Wigan and Mladen Petric from Hamburg. Ageing midfield pair Danny Murphy and Dickson Etuhu have decamped to the Blackburn shuttle disaster.
Manager: Martin Jol looks like a cross between Shrek and Barry from Eastenders. He’s also got that Dutch trait of appearing to be the happiest and most easy going man in the world while at the same time picking arguments in empty rooms off to an absolute tee. Bobby Zamora fell foul of him last season and was sold to Mark Hughes, who then shoved Jol aside at the end of a Fulham win at Loftus Road. “Maybe he doesn’t like losing, or maybe just doesn’t like me,” mused Jol afterwards. He could afford to smile – his Fulham side was playing superbly at that point and were far better than the 1-0 scoreline suggested that day. He persisted with a bizarre set up where the left footed players played on the right and vice versa which often made his team quite narrow, but the quality of Dempsey and Dembele was able to pick a path through the crowded centre of the pitch and finish the season strongly. It was certainly another season that will sit well on a growing CV of a seemingly very talented coach, and Fulham were one of the better teams to watch in the league last year.
Sack Race Odds – Sky Bet have him at 20/1 which is the longest price, the rest have him at 14s or 16s.
This Season: It has cost Mohamed Al Fayed £200m on top of all the money from television and the Premier League to keep Fulham secure in the top flight for the last ten years. That is the amount owed to the Harrods owner by the club. He’s never shown any inclination to wanting that back at any point – and it always amuses me when anybody says they’re “investing” in a football club because it would be like me saying I’m “investing” in the Peroni brewery because I down 14 bottles of the stuff on a Saturday - however, there are some indications that he may not be willing to put a lot more in. There’s a quality drain going on at Fulham at the moment and while the departures of Andy Johnson, Bobby Zamora (both QPR) and Danny Murphy (Train Wreck Rovers) are reasonably prudent moves given their ages and contracts they were important players to Fulham who don’t look to have been adequately replaced. You can make a case for not keeping Pogrebnyak as well, given the way he faded after a thunderous start to life in the Premiership, and Dickson Etuhu, as he’s not very good, but once more it’s not about the player that’s leaving, it’s about the replacements arriving. At the moment Fulham look fine with Clint Dempsey and Moussa Dembele to play in attack along with Bryan Ruiz and new boys Mladen Petric and Hugo Rodallega. That looks competitive, but should Dempsey and Dembele leave they’ll be short of quality and quantity. I like the look of youngster Kerim Frei, but I think they’ll miss Murphy’s influence on their midfield more than they realise.
Odds: Discounting the ludicrous 200/1 title odds on offer from 188Bet they are as short as 750/1 with Ladbrokes and as long as 2500/1 and YouWin. The bookies have them finishing 10th with relegation odds ranging from 7/1 up to 11/1.
If they were a character in The Simpsons… The Old Sea Captain: As old as time itself, achieved things in the dim and distant past that nobody can quite remember, lives in an old shack on the river bank.
In 140 characters or less… Uneasy truce with pragmatic manager sacrificing Academy of Football image for successful yet monotonous long ball dirge.
Last Season: Seemed to get promoted almost in spite of themselves. Their summer signings were on a level not seen in the Championship since Middlesbrough took it on with Paul Merson and co a decade ago but while Kevin Nolan, Matthew Taylor and John Carew looked like champions in waiting it didn't quite pan out that way. Sam Allardyce's pragmatic (nee dire) approach to the game didn't sit well with West Ham's oft-mentioned Academy of Football mantra. Had they appointed him instead of Avram Grant a year beforehand it's unlikely they would have been relegated, but having gone down to then turn to him belatedly when a younger, more forward thinking boss would have probably promoted them in more style seemed strange. West Ham posted record breaking numbers away from home (13 wins, six draws and just four defeats was a new high for the club) but the Hammers faithful regularly taunted their own team with chants of "we're West Ham United, we play on the floor" and despite the vast experience within the squad the players struggled to perform in front of their own fans (eight draws and four defeats, seven home games without a win between February and April) and lost out on automatic promotion to Southampton and Reading. Luckily for Allardyce, things came together at just the right time. They were perhaps fortunate to draw Cardiff City in the play off semi final, given the Welsh side's propensity to shit out spectacularly at the business end of the campaign, but Blackpool in the final was a dangerous proposition and they coped with it well. Mission accomplished then, but not really anything to be proud of.
Transfers: Having agreed a season long loan deal with Liverpool for Andy Carroll they were then knocked back by the player. They have instead got Malian forward Mobido Maiga for £4.7m from Sochaux. Little secret as to how West Ham are approaching this season – James Collins (Aston Villa, £2.5m), George McCartney (Sunderland, free), and Alou Diarra (Marseille, £2m), are uninspiring, solid, stodgy and that’s exactly how the Hammers will be this year. Mohamed Diame from Wigan on a free looks like one of the summer’s best deals. Julian Faubert heads the list of released players. Bad lad Ravel Morrison has been loaned out to Birmingham.
Manager: The only thing to like about Sam Allardyce is the spoof Twitter account @TheBig_Sam which regales almost 140,000 followers with pearls of wisdom such as “When it comes to footballing achievement, one has to accept that the Mancini's and Mourinho's of this world are very nearly my equals” and “Jessica Ennis is so bloody cute. I'd lick her armpits until they were bone fucking dry. Adorable.” Pretty much everything else about this guy is a negative. Allardyce is the manager, you may recall, who was caught engaging in some fairly dodgy financial practices at Bolton that involved his son Craig taking over as a player’s agent just prior to his dad signing them at the Reebok Stadium, thus creaming a chunk of a nice signing on fee for the Allardyce family. When the BBC filmed this process in action Big Sam said it was outrageous and he would sue the corporation. Must have slipped his mind that, because he never did quite get round to that legal action. His Bolton and Blackburn sides were loathed by one and all for their shamelessly direct style of play, and he’s made few friends at West Ham since pitching up there despite a promotion. The arrogance of the man – he once stated the only reason he wasn’t considered for the top jobs in the game was because he wasn’t called Sam Allardici – knows no bounds as his bombastic ramblings in the Evening Standard last season stood regular test to. However criticism of his Bolton side – which included talents like Jay Jay Okocha and Youri Djorkaeff – was often unfounded in my view and the results of his ridiculous sacking at Blackburn are there for all to see. Allardyce comes across as thoroughly unpleasant, but he’s also a pragmatist who gets the best out of whatever meagre means he has at his disposal. He’d have been ideal for West Ham before their relegation (to prevent it happening) and will probably show why this season.
Sack Race Odds – 7/1 with Sky Bet, 6/1 with everybody else, the current favourite for the chop first.
This Season: Nobody seems to be tipping West Ham for relegation, and LFW is no exception, although everybody, including us, struggles to come up with solid reasons for why that is. Much of their summer so far has been spent trying to drag Andy Carroll kicking and screaming down to London on loan from Liverpool but having agreed a hideously expensive temporary deal with the Scousers Carroll rejected the idea out of hand. I like Mohamed Diame very much after seeing him for Wigan last season but he's a lone impressive signing in amongst a lot of drek that screams immediate Championship return – George McCartney and James Collins prime examples. So what do they have going for them? Well, Allardyce for one. His outrageously awful style of play had the fans permanently on the cusp of an uprising last season and he’s the sack race favourite this term but he will stand them in good stead this year when supporter's expectations are lower. Stoke have survived four seasons now with a single game plan and I think West Ham are a better team than them. They also have money to spend, and pulling power, so I wouldn't be at all surprised to see them making a couple of big name acquisitions before the end of the transfer window, and maybe tempting some prospects from big clubs on loan. And, finally, it's a poor division this season. I don't fancy West Ham much on paper or in practice, but I can see six or seven other teams I fancy even less, so they may well stay up by default.
Odds: The bookies have them finishing sixth bottom, longest title odds 5500/1 with YouWin and relegation prices either 2/1 or 9/4.
If they were a character in Mario Kart… Donkey Kong: Managed by a fat, uncouth ape in an old vest.
In 140 characters or less… Replacing Roy Hodgson with Steve Clarke unusually risky manoeuvre for one of league’s most sensibly run clubs.
Last Season: You got the sense – because the TV cameras filmed him repeatedly banging his head on the back of the dugout – that Roy Hodgson was quite frustrated by a lot of what he saw at West Brom last season. Nevertheless a top ten finish was highly creditable, and by the end of the campaign the Baggies were playing an attractive and effective brand of Premiership football. I saw their dire 1-0 home defeat by Everton on New Year’s Day and feared for them (and my immediate health prospects) but by the time QPR got there in April they were entertaining and incisive, full of movement and width, with an excellent goalkeeper backing up a fairly rickety defence. They won 5-1 at Wolves, 4-0 against Sunderland and 1-0 against Chelsea during an impressive spring run but it was the 2-2 draw at Bolton at the end that impressed me most. Trailing by two goals, with nothing to play for, two days after the manager announced he was leaving, they roared back against a team that desperately needed a win to avoid relegation and I think that said a lot about the players and the culture at the club.
Transfers: Ben Foster has signed permanently from Birmingham and is an excellent capture in goal – he was absolutely outstanding against QPR last season. Romelu Lukaku will finally get a chance to show what he can do in the Premier League after signing on loan from Chelsea. They’ve also signed Claudia Yacob from Racing Santander and Markus Rosenberg from Bremen. Nickey Shorey, Paul Scharner, Keith Andrews and Simon Cox lead the departures.
Manager: There are a lot of people floating around in football at the moment who I struggle to see what all the fuss is about. Jack Rodwell, for example, has never struck me as a player of any great worth or merit and yet the champions have just shelled out £12m, rising to £15m for him. Jay Rodriguez, signed by Southampton for a whopping £7m is another, and £15m Joe Allen another. In the managerial world I worry about Steve Clarke, who has stepped up to number one for the first time this summer with West Brom. It’s a good club for him to start at, because the Baggies are structured around their director of football Dan Ashworth and chairman Jeremy Peace and their long term plan in which the manager is there more than anything else to coach the team – so a change at the top isn’t the massive upheaval that it would be at some clubs. However Clarke is replacing a vastly experienced man in Roy Hodgson, who specialises in getting the best out of middle of the road teams like West Brom and that’s a hard act to follow. I’m not that convinced by Clarke’s credentials even as a number two. I mean last year he was assistant to Kenny Dalglish at Liverpool which wasn’t a conspicuous success, and the year before he sat beside Avram Grant and helped guide a midtable West Ham team to relegation. In fact, I rate Clarke so lowly I actually had West Brom down as one of my three relegated sides for this until I started writing up others.
Sack Race Odds – Longest price 9/1 with Coral but as low as 6/1 with others and fourth favourite.
This Season: There are three reasons why I subsequently decided to bump the Baggies up the table. The first is the previously stated idea that a change in manager – even a very good experienced man leaving to be replaced by a novice with questionable credentials – isn’t as big a deal for West Brom as it is for clubs that give the manager carte blanche to do as he pleases. The second is goals: with Shane Long, Peter Odemwingie and now loaned Chelsea forward Romelu Lukaku to select from in attack they shouldn’t struggle to score as much as some sides down there. And the third is the team on paper, and the expansive and energetic midfield I saw play against QPR at The Hawthorns in April is still in place and is a long way from the division’s worst set up. They’ve also signed Ben Foster permanently and he was inspired for them last season. So I think they’ve got a team good enough to survive in spite of Steve Clarke, who I think is a poor appointment and won’t last long.
Odds: Seventh favourites for the drop, available at 4/1 or 7/2 generally.
If they were a character in The Simpsons… Professor Frink. Gazing off into the future to a time where managers are irrelevant and the Dan Ashworths of this world rule from on high. Enthusiastically pitching ideals to anybody that will listen in the meantime.
In 140 characters or less… Spent the majority of the summer being tricked into offering 31-year-old Grant Holt a big money three year contract. #agent
Last Season: Finished twelfth on their return to the Premiership after two consecutive promotions and impressed everybody along the way. Paul Lambert has cemented his managerial reputation for the foreseeable future by taking the Canaries from a 7-1 opening day defeat to his Colchester United side in League One, to a secure position in the middle of the Premier League in three years. The most heart warming thing about the ascent through the divisions is it was done through sound scouting of lower league prospects – Norwich’s star men in the Premiership last season were Grant Holt, Steve Morrison, Anthony Pilkington, Wes Hoolahan and others who have all been picked up from lower divisions at sensible prices and, in most cases, brought up through the divisions together as a team playing under Lambert’s astute guidance. Norwich finished second behind QPR in the Championship but while Neil Warnock quickly abandoned his second tier players in favour of the bright lights and big names like Shaun Wright-Phillips and Joey Barton and subsequently found himself embroiled in a relegation battle and out of a job, Lambert kept faith and added to his team in the same way he had done before. The only unedifying thing about the Canaries has been a propensity – particularly from Holt – to engage in some of the game’s dodgier practises on the field of play.
Transfers: Robert Snodgrass has joined the former Leeds contingent after completing a £3m deal – I’m the only person in the country that doesn’t rate Robert Snodgrass so I’ll watch with interest. Michael Turner from Sunderland looks like a good signing to me in a position Norwich needed to strengthen. The policy of picking off the best the lower leagues have to offer continues with Jacob Butterfield arriving from Barnsley – Adam Hammill had limited success at Wolves after moving from Oakwell and I fancy a similar fate befalling Butterfield. Andrew Crofts has left for Brighton and Zak Whitbread to Leicester.
Manager: Chris Hughton is the man facing the impossible task of replacing Lambert having grown weary of three game weeks and financial thin ice at Championship side Birmingham. Hughton, for so long an assistant manager or coach for Spurs and Newcastle, knows all about tough jobs and won’t be fazed by having to replace an Anglian demi-God at Carrow Road. At Newcastle he stepped into the breach after relegation from the Premier League during the protracted “will they appoint Shearer” saga and united a dressing room packed full of arrogant toss pots. Newcastle were promoted, and then started the Premiership season very well upon which Hughton was harshly sacked. He proved it was no fluke by performing admirably at Birmingham City last season where his task was made more difficult by a European campaign that clogged the fixture list and the omnipresent threat of financial collapse. They fell short in the play offs but won enormous praise for a backs-to-the-wall campaign. I think this is about the best appointment Norwich could have made.
Sack Race Odds – 14s, 16s and 18s generally which puts him about ninth on the list, but he’ll be hoping Ladbrokes aren’t in possession of some inside info as they have him at 8/1
This Season: Personally I think Norwich are one of seven teams in very grave danger of relegation this year, and the only way I’ve been able to rank them all is by asking whether I think they’ll score enough goals and whether I like their manager. Norwich have a physical, awkward forward line and while personally don’t see Grant Holt doing anywhere near as well as he did last year, and find the way he’s played the club for a long term contract hilarious, he will continue to pose defences a problem this season. I don’t get the fuss with John Ruddy who seems to cover up the number of soft goals he lets in with a string of routine saves made to look fancy, and I’ve never been part of the ever expanding Robert Snodgrass fan club either, but I like the signing of Michael Turner at centre half and I think he will improve them. Hughton has been experimenting with one up front in pre-season with mixed results that have had Norwich’s often supremely arrogant message board community fretting that he may not be the man for the job and the Champions League may be beyond them this season but overall I think they’ll be fine – if only because there are several worse teams.
Odds: Third favourites for relegation, longest price 13/8, shortest 5/4 with William Hill.
If they were a character in The Simpsons… Snake the Habitual Criminal: Inflated sense of self worth and importance, prone to engaging in dark arts.
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