Surely there can never have been a Rochdale striker so prolific who still manages to split opinion among the Dale fanbase quite like Kairo Mitchell?

Kairo Mitchell has 18 goals this season. 13 National League goals (joint-seventh in the division), plus a vital brace against Worthing in the FA Trophy and an FA Cup hat-trick against AFC Fylde.

He's already scored more goals in a single season than any Dale player since Ian Henderson managed 21 in the 2018/2019 season - and we've still got a minimum of 17 fixtures to fulfill. If he continues at his seasonal rate of a goal every 149 minutes, he'll only need to play an average of 53 minutes per game in order to reach a total of 24 - a tally not achieved by any Dale player in a single season since Grant Holt in the 2004/2005 campaign.

The worry however, is that the majority of these goals came in the early stages of the season. Indeed, in a run of nine games games that started with a 3-0 win over Woking on August 31st and culminated with a 1-4 victory over Fylde in the FA Cup Fourth Qualifying Round on October 12th, the Grenada international scored 12 of his seasonal total of 18, only failing to find the net in the 2-2 away draw with Ebbsfleet.

And while we can extrapolate the numbers over the season, it seems fairly arbitrary to do so because since that nine game run, the numbers are altogether less impressive. He failed to score in the eight games following that hat-trick at Fylde and his overall record since that game reads six goals in 20 appearances.

But how much of this downturn in form is a Kairo issue and how much is a team issue? The early season confidence that seemed to be flowing through the team in the early stages has definitely dissipated somewhat of late and perhaps part of that is due to teams being far more aware of the routes to goal that were proving successful to us in early stages of the season. Add to that a tactical inflexibility displayed by Jim McNulty and the momentum-killing runs of weeks without fixtures to keep those good runs of form in full flow and we're going to have a problem.

If we look back on that run of 12 goals in nine games, we'll see a lot of things that we don't seem to be seeing anymore from Kairo and three key things that appear to have been in abundance for him during September but now severely lacking are confidence, service and luck.

When you look at the drilled, high finishes in the home wins against Woking and Maidenhead, you see a striker that's clearly confident of striking the ball hard and true to find it's intended target. This kind of thumped finish won't exactly be what Mitchell will be remembered for when the times comes for him to leave Spotland, but what they are is indicative of a striker in red hot form. Compare this to the handful of tame attempts on target we've seen recently and the shot he pulled wide in the second minute of the Oldham defeat and you see a player who has certainly lost a degree of confidence.

The brace in the home win against Maidenhead is perhaps the perfect example of the way the service to Mitchell appears to have changed in recent months too. For the first goal he finds a wide gap in the Magpies' backline to collect a defence-splitting pass from Dan Sassi, coolly picking his spot with his left foot after evading two retreating defenders. For the second, he latches onto a pass around the outside of the defence from Connor McBride before rifling home. While I was the first to express concerns about Sassi's defensive capabilities, he was certainly a more threatening passer of the ball than Liam Hogan, his replacement at the heart of the defence, has proved to be since. Plus, this kind of pass into space behind the defensive line that we see for McBride's assist has been much harder to recreate for whatever reason during Dale's downturn in form.

We also saw goals in away wins against Aldershot and Hartlepool that came as a result of dangerous low crosses from right wing-back Tobi Adebayo-Rowling. The Dale no.14 seems to have been pressed further back down the pitch in recent weeks and perhaps that's a case of opposition teams cottoning on to the threat he poses when in those advanced positions. Whether it's a case of better planning from opposing managers, a change in our own system or a simple downturn in form the fact remains that while Tobi assisted three goals for Kairo in very similar fashion against Aldershot, Hartlepool and Braintree back in September, Adebayo-Rowling has not assisted our striker for a goal since and has managed just one assist in total in his last 15 games - a low cross for Leon Ayinde's goal in the 4-0 demolition of Yeovil.

We saw an example of a team that were unprepared for this in Worthing in the FA Trophy, who hadn't spotted how much success we'd been having from this tactic a few months previous - Mitchell scored both of our goals in a 1-2 win that day, converting two low crosses from the right hand side.

Then there's that luck. Although he was more than fortunate to get the final touch on Dale's equalising goal at Tamworth last week, the ball hasn't quite been falling for Mitchell in the same way that it was earlier in the season. Any striker worth their salt will tell you that you make your own luck and Kairo was certainly doing this earlier in the season - the consolation goal in the defeat to Solihull a great example as he reacted first to reach a lose ball after a failed dribble attempt from Tarryn Allarakhia and squeeze the ball past Moors' keeper Laurie Walker.

There was also more than a hint of fortune involved in the first goal of his hat-trick at Fylde when the ball fell to him a yard from goal after a scramble in the six yard box and he was practically gifted the opening goal of the 4-2 defeat at Silverlake Stadium after a dreadful pass from Eastleigh keeper Joe McDonnell.

What we've seen more of in recent weeks however has been Mitchell struggling to win aerial duels with dominant defenders, being forced to play with his back to goal a good 20-30 yards short of the penalty area and when he does have an opportunity to bring others into play, failing to do so due to a poor first touch here or a misplaced short pass there. These have always been issues with his game - but issues that many fans are willing to look past when he's in a rich vein of goalscoring form.

Even when Mitchell does win a rare header, the inexperience of players like Ayinde and Jili Buyabu has been evident in recent weeks. For his considerable height, Mitchell's aerial work is undeniably below the standard expected, (even when he is in better goalscoring form) and the majority of the headers he does manage to win are flicked onwards towards goal, but the current shape doesn't lend itself to players running on beyond the striker.

I'm not sure how much of this is McNulty's direction and how much of it is down to the group of players struggling for confidence and cohesion. We've seen it before several times, when a Dale team (regardless of the general thrust of how the manager wants to play), resorts to more direct football as a means to try and take the pressure of the defence and gain a foothold in the game. This is not playing to Kairo's strengths. While goalkeeper Sam Waller is an excellent shot-stopper, his distribution is not quite at the same level as a Louie Moulden for example, whose direct kicks led to five assists last season as they were often pinpoint passes in behind a defence with a higher line.

We've seen players clearly unsuited to that role struggle to get to grips with it in the past as well - Tahvon Campbell being one particular example of a player clearly not equipped to play as a lone target man that was forced into the position in the latter stages of the 2021/22 season after being signed by Robbie Stockdale from Woking.

Playing short passes around the back, while not a particularly popular tactic with the majority of the Spotland crowd, can help draw a press from the opposition that a goalkeeper with the right kind of technique and vision can then clear with a suitable direct pass. Recent opponents such as Oldham and Southend have been not been drawn into that press in open play, leaving themselves in a deeper position that's more difficult to clear and thus leaving Mitchell attempting to win high balls to progress the team up the pitch rather than chasing in behind off the shoulder of the last man or lurking in the box during a spell of sustained possession - like he would much prefer to do.

But there are issues with Kairo specifically too. For a striker of his considerable height, it's noticeable that not one of his 18 goals this season have been headed. This is a worry and although he did score a couple of headers last season, the lack of aerial threat in the box does limit us considerably. Being able to deliver the kind of low crosses into the box that Kairo was scoring from earlier in the season is pivotal if he's to remain scoring consistently, but teams have wised up to the tactic and are now overloading those wide areas either side of the box when in their defensive shape to stop the likes of Adebayo-Rowling and Kyron Gordon from breaking free beyond the backline. We don't have the alternative of firing in floated crosses from deep as they simply aren't a threat with him as the target.

And then there's the hold-up play itself. Even if we aren't playing to his strengths, he has to win more aerial duels, he has to be better at getting in front of a defender to bring down a high ball and he has to be more consistent with simple lay-offs and passes. There was a perfect example of this in the FA Trophy win over Altrincham when he finally did manage to control a long pass from Waller, but played a short pass behind the run of Ian Henderson and we lost possession. That wasn't anyone else's fault but his and it happens far too often.

I hate to say it, but I also think there's an element of Kairo being something of a flat track bully. Of those 18 goals, only three have come against teams in the top half of the National League table - and none have come against teams currently occupying a position in the play-off places.

I understand the limitations that Mitchell has, but personally I do feel that he is bearing the brunt of the criticism for an overall drop in form throughout the squad and to a degree, we've been spoiled by strikers who are able to drag a team to a result even when everything's going against them in the past. Be it the free-scoring physicality of a Grant Holt, the pure technical brilliance of a Rickie Lambert or indeed the genius of Ian Henderson among others, we have had several strikers over the years capable of producing a moment of brilliance to rescue something from a game we perhaps had no right to rescue anything from. Kairo Mitchell is not that.

And I do think the fact we've been able to enjoy some unbelievably talented strikers in the last 20 years ply their trade at Spotland plays some part into people's perceptions of Kairo. But the reality is, this is no longer a club battling for promotion from League Two or rubbing shoulders with the likes of Sunderland and Sheffield United in League One, this is now a club scrambling for a play-off place in the National League. While I, like many fans, expect us to be performing above that level, I do think fans have to adjust their expectations of individual players accordingly.

Add to that, the fact that one of the aforementioned strikers is still at the club and you're always going to have people clamouring for a change in the line-up as soon as things start to go awry. Hendo has had limited minutes this season and since he is held in such incredibly high esteem by Dale fans, seeing a striker with obvious limitations in the starting eleven in front of him can rankle for some.

It's also the nature of the role of the centre forward that people notice when you aren't delivering. You're the first one to get the glory when things are going well, but there's also no hiding place when you're missing chances and things aren't going your way. Has there been the same level of criticism for players like Adebayo-Rowling and Beckwith whose performance levels have dropped a long way from where they were in September?

And then there's Saturday. Jay Bird, in his first start for the club, gave us everything that we've been missing with Kairo over the last few months. Winning 50/50 battles with defenders, showing physicality and smarts to give us an outlet higher up the pitch. Not only did he take his goal brilliantly well, beating an Altrincham defender to a Sam Beckwith cross before turning and firing home an assured finish, but in the lead up to the second goal he was able to hold off the attention of Lewis Baines to bring down a launched Waller goal kick and feed a short pass into the path of Harvey Gilmour. It was the kind of forward play we've been missing sorely in recent weeks.

Where this leaves Mitchell is not clear. Bird was withdrawn on 52 minutes in that game, but surely every Dale supporter will be hoping he's fit enough to start against Gateshead on Tuesday night after that performance. Even if just to take Mitchell out of the firing line for a short spell, having a different option in attack gives us blessed relief, and there's no doubt that the defence will feel some of the pressure eased if they now have the option of playing a direct long pass into a striker that's more likely to allow them to progress up the pitch than Mitchell was proving to be.

That being said, Mitchell's contributions this season should not be ignored. 18 goals is no mean feat and if we are to win the club's first ever cup in the FA Trophy this season or indeed earn a position in the play-offs, it's fair to suggest that wouldn't have been achieved without Mitchell's poaching instincts. Perhaps, as a fanbase, we can do better than to tear down a prolific goalscorer who clearly relies on confidence and momentum in front of goal when we will likely need him to produce the goods again between now and the end of the season if we are to achieve anything. Is he the perfect striker? No, not by a long shot. Is he even the best-suited striker to start the next few games? No, probably not.

But equally, he's far from a lost cause and can be proud of how he's performed having joined the club as anything but a prolific forward player in the summer of 2024. Maybe Kairo can be the hero the Dale deserve - but not the one it needs right now.

Photo: Action Images

harystar68 added 15:43 - Mar 3 The Kairo Conundrum 3rd Mar 2025 12:31 Surely there can never have been a Rochdale striker so prolific who still manages to split opinion among the Dale fanbase quite like Kairo Mitchell? 1
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