| The Great Escape: other games thread. 20:50 - Dec 30 with 28417 views | 442Dale |
When we avoided relegation in 17/18 after being so far adrift, I think there was a similar thread towards the end of the season which followed the scores of the other clubs around us.
In the spirit of superstition starting it now could help again. Theory being the earlier the better and safe by Easter.
Crawley losing 2-0 to Stevenage at the moment tonight. |  |
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| The Great Escape: other games thread. on 20:10 - Jan 2 with 3387 views | 100notout |
| The Great Escape: other games thread. on 17:47 - Jan 2 by 442Dale |
On the flip side, while we’d rather have them beaten Crawley, beating Newport on Saturday would see us make up more ground on them over the week with them “only” drawing today.
Should have called this “The Straw Clutching Thread of Doom”. |
"The slump starts here?"
Where's robshaker when you need him? |  |
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| The Great Escape: other games thread. on 20:29 - Jan 2 with 3317 views | TVOS1907 |
| The Great Escape: other games thread. on 20:10 - Jan 2 by 100notout |
"The slump starts here?"
Where's robshaker when you need him? |
Banned again, I believe. |  |
| When I was your age, I used to enjoy the odd game of tennis. Or was it golf? |
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| The Great Escape: other games thread. on 22:41 - Jan 2 with 3217 views | 49thseason |
| The Great Escape: other games thread. on 20:07 - Jan 2 by RAFCBLUE |
And 12 of those 23 deliveries are home games with 36 points on offer.
Home form is the key to anything good and for all of us to try to help that in whatever little way we can.
Still to visit Spotland (league postion as of tonight):
1. Newport County (18th)
2. Colchester United (21st)
3. Carlisle United (4th)
4. Northampton Town (3rd)
5. Gillingham (24th)
6. Stockport County (13th)
7. Stevenage (2nd)
8. Swindon Town (6th)
9. Walsall (9th)
10. Bradford (5th)
11. Tranmere (15th)
12. Sutton (12th)
All to play for for all teams at the top and bottom of the league, save for Leyton Orient who look so far ahead they won't be caught. |
Our home form has been pathetic since 2017 /18 with wins running at about 25% and draws around 33% so 12 games would give 3 home wins and 4 draws and 5 losses... 13 points. I think we have to find a half point per game improvement over the next 23 games vs results over the last 6 seasons average if we are to dodge the bullet. |  | | |
| The Great Escape: other games thread. on 13:32 - Jan 3 with 3011 views | _Stefan_Kuntz |
In the last 10 seasons to finish 1 point above 23rd the average number of points needed was 44.2.
In the last 4 seasons the average number of points needed was 42.
Last season the number was 39.
Supporters of clubs in danger of relegation always over-estimate the number of points needed to escape.
47 points were enough in 8 of the last 10 seasons.
46 points were enough in 6 of the last 10 seasons.
How many points do you think are needed? | | | |
| The Great Escape: other games thread. on 16:10 - Jan 3 with 2858 views | 49thseason |
| The Great Escape: other games thread. on 13:32 - Jan 3 by _Stefan_Kuntz |
In the last 10 seasons to finish 1 point above 23rd the average number of points needed was 44.2.
In the last 4 seasons the average number of points needed was 42.
Last season the number was 39.
Supporters of clubs in danger of relegation always over-estimate the number of points needed to escape.
47 points were enough in 8 of the last 10 seasons.
46 points were enough in 6 of the last 10 seasons.
How many points do you think are needed? |
My calculation was 16 on the board,
12 home games - 3 wins and 4 draws, that's another 13
11 away games 3 wins 2 draws = 11 points
16 +13+11 = 40 points based on average form over the last 6 seasons. A half point per game improvement would add 11 more to give 51.
However without an improvement in form, we average 0.7 points per game for the season and end up with 32 although in the last 8 games we have averaged 0.5 points per game so 27 or 28 points is likely if form doesn't improve.
Last season we scored 51 goals- 1.1 per game so far we have 15 in 23 - 0.65 per game in my view we need to score twice as often in the next 23 games or we are doomed | | | |
| The Great Escape: other games thread. on 16:21 - Jan 3 with 2807 views | James1980 |
| The Great Escape: other games thread. on 16:10 - Jan 3 by 49thseason |
My calculation was 16 on the board,
12 home games - 3 wins and 4 draws, that's another 13
11 away games 3 wins 2 draws = 11 points
16 +13+11 = 40 points based on average form over the last 6 seasons. A half point per game improvement would add 11 more to give 51.
However without an improvement in form, we average 0.7 points per game for the season and end up with 32 although in the last 8 games we have averaged 0.5 points per game so 27 or 28 points is likely if form doesn't improve.
Last season we scored 51 goals- 1.1 per game so far we have 15 in 23 - 0.65 per game in my view we need to score twice as often in the next 23 games or we are doomed |
The attitude needs to change in my opinion. We need to aim as high as possible safety is definitely not an impossibility and there are enough points available for a play off place. | |
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| The Great Escape: other games thread. on 18:08 - Jan 3 with 2697 views | _Stefan_Kuntz |
Gillingham must surely finish in the bottom two. They have scored only 7 goals in 23 games.
Any team taking more than 3 games to score 1 goal will not all that often get 3 points.
That's 1 goal every 295 minutes and 43 seconds. [Post edited 3 Jan 2023 18:15]
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| The Great Escape: other games thread. on 19:15 - Jan 3 with 2620 views | richfoad32 |
| The Great Escape: other games thread. on 18:08 - Jan 3 by _Stefan_Kuntz |
Gillingham must surely finish in the bottom two. They have scored only 7 goals in 23 games.
Any team taking more than 3 games to score 1 goal will not all that often get 3 points.
That's 1 goal every 295 minutes and 43 seconds. [Post edited 3 Jan 2023 18:15]
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It's not inconceivable that they go out and bring in some goalscorers in the transfer window? | | | |
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| The Great Escape: other games thread. on 19:46 - Jan 3 with 2553 views | NorthernDale |
They have already signed Tom Nichols from Crawley. | | | |
| The Great Escape: other games thread. on 23:03 - Jan 3 with 2460 views | _Stefan_Kuntz |
I'm not so sure that signing someone who Crawley were willing to let go is going to be much of an upgrade. | | | |
| The Great Escape: other games thread. on 23:10 - Jan 3 with 2442 views | Dalenet |
| The Great Escape: other games thread. on 13:32 - Jan 3 by _Stefan_Kuntz |
In the last 10 seasons to finish 1 point above 23rd the average number of points needed was 44.2.
In the last 4 seasons the average number of points needed was 42.
Last season the number was 39.
Supporters of clubs in danger of relegation always over-estimate the number of points needed to escape.
47 points were enough in 8 of the last 10 seasons.
46 points were enough in 6 of the last 10 seasons.
How many points do you think are needed? |
That's more than a point per game. How many points per game are we averaging right now? Remind me! | | | |
| The Great Escape: other games thread. on 09:55 - Jan 4 with 2278 views | NorthernDale |
| The Great Escape: other games thread. on 23:03 - Jan 3 by _Stefan_Kuntz |
I'm not so sure that signing someone who Crawley were willing to let go is going to be much of an upgrade. |
Nichols record at Crawley was around 23 goals in 101 games, which is not a bad scoring record. | | | |
| The Great Escape: other games thread. on 10:23 - Jan 5 with 1958 views | _Stefan_Kuntz |
A goal every 4.21 games when playing for a team that in those 101 games was significantly better than Gillingham is not going to rescue Gillingham.
I am calling it now. Gillingham will finish in the relegation zone. There is now 1 relegation place to fill. [Post edited 5 Jan 2023 10:48]
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| The Great Escape: other games thread. on 10:33 - Jan 5 with 1921 views | _Stefan_Kuntz |
Jim Bentley does not get (his team) relegated. [Post edited 5 Jan 2023 12:24]
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| The Great Escape: other games thread. on 14:09 - Jan 5 with 1725 views | _Stefan_Kuntz |
The Rochdale v Carlisle United match is on Saturday 28th January. The current Carlisle United team plays well when it plays 1 match per week. It performs less well with a heavier schedule.
The Rochdale v Carlisle United match will be Carlisle United's 3rd match in 8 days. In a run of Saturday / Tuesday / Saturday matches the team plays well on the first Saturday, less well on the Tuesday and worst of all on the second Saturday. The Rochdale match is on the second Saturday. Even when the opposition has a similar fixture schedule this sub-optimal level of Carlisle United performance applies on that second Saturday. [Post edited 5 Jan 2023 14:27]
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| The Great Escape: other games thread. on 14:18 - Jan 5 with 1713 views | TVOS1907 |
| The Great Escape: other games thread. on 14:09 - Jan 5 by _Stefan_Kuntz |
The Rochdale v Carlisle United match is on Saturday 28th January. The current Carlisle United team plays well when it plays 1 match per week. It performs less well with a heavier schedule.
The Rochdale v Carlisle United match will be Carlisle United's 3rd match in 8 days. In a run of Saturday / Tuesday / Saturday matches the team plays well on the first Saturday, less well on the Tuesday and worst of all on the second Saturday. The Rochdale match is on the second Saturday. Even when the opposition has a similar fixture schedule this sub-optimal level of Carlisle United performance applies on that second Saturday. [Post edited 5 Jan 2023 14:27]
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We're away at Salford on 4th February! | |
| When I was your age, I used to enjoy the odd game of tennis. Or was it golf? |
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| The Great Escape: other games thread. on 14:29 - Jan 5 with 1688 views | _Stefan_Kuntz |
As you can see I had corrected that just before you posted. You see the corrected version in the quote in your post. | | | |
| The Great Escape: other games thread. on 14:33 - Jan 5 with 1680 views | TVOS1907 |
| The Great Escape: other games thread. on 14:29 - Jan 5 by _Stefan_Kuntz |
As you can see I had corrected that just before you posted. You see the corrected version in the quote in your post. |
Aye. | |
| When I was your age, I used to enjoy the odd game of tennis. Or was it golf? |
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| The Great Escape: other games thread. on 14:38 - Jan 5 with 1661 views | D_Alien |
| The Great Escape: other games thread. on 14:09 - Jan 5 by _Stefan_Kuntz |
The Rochdale v Carlisle United match is on Saturday 28th January. The current Carlisle United team plays well when it plays 1 match per week. It performs less well with a heavier schedule.
The Rochdale v Carlisle United match will be Carlisle United's 3rd match in 8 days. In a run of Saturday / Tuesday / Saturday matches the team plays well on the first Saturday, less well on the Tuesday and worst of all on the second Saturday. The Rochdale match is on the second Saturday. Even when the opposition has a similar fixture schedule this sub-optimal level of Carlisle United performance applies on that second Saturday. [Post edited 5 Jan 2023 14:27]
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So you're saying the sub-optimal performances in the 2nd and 3rd games during a week are exclusive to Carlisle, and either doesn't apply to other teams, or somehow applies to a lesser extent?
And if it applies to a similar extent, what does it matter? [Post edited 5 Jan 2023 14:39]
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| The Great Escape: other games thread. on 15:00 - Jan 5 with 1626 views | Shun |
| The Great Escape: other games thread. on 10:23 - Jan 5 by _Stefan_Kuntz |
A goal every 4.21 games when playing for a team that in those 101 games was significantly better than Gillingham is not going to rescue Gillingham.
I am calling it now. Gillingham will finish in the relegation zone. There is now 1 relegation place to fill. [Post edited 5 Jan 2023 10:48]
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Nicholls is a good player. A creative type more than a goalscorer. Someone we could well do with. Gillingham have more money than us, more pulling power than us, and are only two points behind us. I can see January being a far more fruitful month for them than it will be for us. |  | | |
| The Great Escape: other games thread. on 15:21 - Jan 5 with 1568 views | TVOS1907 |
| The Great Escape: other games thread. on 14:38 - Jan 5 by D_Alien |
So you're saying the sub-optimal performances in the 2nd and 3rd games during a week are exclusive to Carlisle, and either doesn't apply to other teams, or somehow applies to a lesser extent?
And if it applies to a similar extent, what does it matter? [Post edited 5 Jan 2023 14:39]
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Six teams in the EFL won 3/3 over the festive period, so none of this applied to them.
Carlisle also won 3-0 away in their second game after winning 1-0 at home in their first game.
I'm not sure what any of that means though. | |
| When I was your age, I used to enjoy the odd game of tennis. Or was it golf? |
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| The Great Escape: other games thread. on 15:23 - Jan 5 with 1565 views | D_Alien |
| The Great Escape: other games thread. on 15:21 - Jan 5 by TVOS1907 |
Six teams in the EFL won 3/3 over the festive period, so none of this applied to them.
Carlisle also won 3-0 away in their second game after winning 1-0 at home in their first game.
I'm not sure what any of that means though. |
It means that 3-0 away win should've been 5-0! | |
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| The Great Escape: other games thread. on 15:25 - Jan 5 with 1553 views | jonahwhereru |
| The Great Escape: other games thread. on 10:33 - Jan 5 by _Stefan_Kuntz |
Jim Bentley does not get (his team) relegated. [Post edited 5 Jan 2023 12:24]
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Stefan, good to see some glass half full optimism on here, it’s a change from the glass empty approach that has come to prominence on this site. It’s my first post for a while because I disappointed enough in my own “positive” mind with the way things are going, without tangling with the avalanche of pessimism. I can do without the National League here we come mentality every time we concede a goal. Having a positive attitudes doesn’t blind me to the reality of what we are facing so it’s not Rose tinted glasses time.
If the anxiety expressed on here gets reflected on the terraces is will also get picked up on the pitch and that is not what we are about.
I don’t know with confidence if we will avoid relegation this season, but I know the true fans and vast majority of the board members past and present deserve in their efforts resulting in continued league status.
So yes I am and always will be behind the team and club.
UTD | | | |
| The Great Escape: other games thread. on 15:36 - Jan 5 with 1522 views | _Stefan_Kuntz |
I am on about League Two.
Yes, I was aware that for Carlisle United the Crewe game was an exception.
Even when every team plays Saturday / Tuesday / Saturday the Carlisle United performance is bad in comparison to their immediate opponents. There is no reason for them to be more fatigued from the same schedule but it actually does occur that they are bad in that 3rd match and nearly always in the second match.
With Carlisle United playing on the 21st ,24th and 28th whilst Rochdale are playing on the 21st and 28th there has to be a good chance of Rochdale doing well. | | | |
| The Great Escape: other games thread. on 15:46 - Jan 5 with 1480 views | _Stefan_Kuntz |
For me it is Gillingham and Colchester United to go down. Perhaps it is a bit of wishful thinking but I do not want the North to lose 2 EFL clubs.
It is intriguing that both Bentley and Curle never get relegated and I wish for that to continue. | | | |
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