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Great site here for tracking projections and polling for the Presidential, House and Senate elections over the next month. A wealth of info on each state in each race.
I'm old enough to remember Reagan being elected and the general feeling at the time was much the same 'Two Tribes' and all that. As it turned out he ended up being the exact opposite - nuclear war became less likely after his time in office. I'm not sure that Trump is another Reagan though, mind you, but everyone did think that they were barking mad for electing a second rate actor as President. Hopefully Trump will exceed (my) expectations.
I guess the challenge this time is
-Trump seems dead keen on the tactical use of nuclear weapons, where Reagan's squad took it as read it was best used as an ace card rather than the go to
- Reagan staunchly backed allies and was a big believer in NATO. Trump does not believe America should fulfil its obligations to its allies, meaning they will no longer fall under America's nuclear umbrella
- US policy for the last 40 years has been nuclear non proliferation. The number of warheads in the world has been decreased dramatically. But due to the above two factors you now have South Korea and even Japan asking why they can't have nuclear weapons. Trump's isolationism will create a vacuum that others will look to fill.
The only real winner is Putin. He is going to steamroller Eastern Europe and a republican US president no less is going to actively coalesce
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US Elections 2016 on 12:01 - Nov 9 with 2383 views
America has voted in the man most likely to start a nuclear war as president. Whoopie we're gonna die.
[Post edited 9 Nov 2016 11:23]
I'm not so sure. He's constantly said for nigh on 10 years positive things about Putin. Doesn't seem to me that he wants a war with Russia, quite the opposite. Seems to me the one thing he's actually been consistent about!
I'm not so sure. He's constantly said for nigh on 10 years positive things about Putin. Doesn't seem to me that he wants a war with Russia, quite the opposite. Seems to me the one thing he's actually been consistent about!
-Trump seems dead keen on the tactical use of nuclear weapons, where Reagan's squad took it as read it was best used as an ace card rather than the go to
- Reagan staunchly backed allies and was a big believer in NATO. Trump does not believe America should fulfil its obligations to its allies, meaning they will no longer fall under America's nuclear umbrella
- US policy for the last 40 years has been nuclear non proliferation. The number of warheads in the world has been decreased dramatically. But due to the above two factors you now have South Korea and even Japan asking why they can't have nuclear weapons. Trump's isolationism will create a vacuum that others will look to fill.
The only real winner is Putin. He is going to steamroller Eastern Europe and a republican US president no less is going to actively coalesce
Agree with that and ElHoop. The rejection of political norms is and was predictable. And highly dangerous. With Trump.
Trumps ignorance and stupidity in expressing a willingness to use tactical nukes against ISIS will put the Chinese under extreme psychological pressure and far more likely to launch a first strike if N Korea dont get their first.
-1
US Elections 2016 on 12:38 - Nov 9 with 2230 views
I don't agree with that. The EU Referendum was necessary sooner or later, as we were always reliant on the Eurozone being stable and providing near full-employment whilst we were allowing free movement into our independent economy. That Eurozone stability and prosperity just hasn't happened.
If we hadn't have had the referendum then we'd be stuck with two 'single issues' contaminating our national politics - Brexit and Scottish Independence. We've resolved the EU issue and now we need to tackle Scotland one way or the other. If we stay in the EU then the Brexit single issue just makes the whole political scene impossible for the main parties, unless there's an acceptable settlement with the EU, which may of course yet happen.
The USA probably didn't want Clinton or Trump, just as most of us didn't want to stay in the EU as it was or leave it as a concept. They wanted a better America and we wanted a better EU.
The EU thing hasn't gone away because as soon as we're "out", unless people's standard of living improves dramatically there will be a growing call to rejoin. And you will get a political party making this a core policy, thereby putting right back on the political agenda.
I don't see how anyone would want Clinton or Trump either, but usually when people don't want either candidate they simply don't bother to vote. However in this case the turnout has been huge.
100% of people who drink water will die.
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US Elections 2016 on 12:49 - Nov 9 with 2190 views
Same old faces talking to usual suspects, left politicians, celebrities, liberals and all still stuck in their rich fckin bubble, essentially hating the public. What an utter bunch of cnts.
As a rule of thumb, if a celebrity is on your side, you're on the wrong side.
Incredible he got the votes he did considering the hatchet job the corporate elite imposed upon him. The people are tired of being branded and told what to think and yet again the silent majority have spoken. Whilst many are still influenced by the corporate media others have decided to do their own research using the many avenues of alternative information not seen in the mainstream. Thank God for the internet. This is a vote against the corporate establishment.
Yes but you just watch, nothing will actually change. The "swamp" is the system. Donald Trump is not exactly Wat Tyler in a Stetson..
RFA
"Things had started becoming increasingly desperate at Loftus Road but QPR have been handed a massive lifeline and the place has absolutely erupted. it's carnage. It's bedlam. It's 1-1."
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US Elections 2016 on 13:21 - Nov 9 with 2102 views
I know at least a dozen Trump supporters personally who do not talk on social media about the election for fear of losing friends. They will quietly cast their vote and move on. I know the sample is small, but I think this indicates that there are more "quiet" Trump supporters than people think...I don't think he'll win. I wish we could have a primary do-over...
My small sample size tured out to be right. Wow. There were a lot of leaning voters....meaning, voters who leaned in a whispered they were for trump who would never admit it publicly...
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US Elections 2016 on 13:36 - Nov 9 with 2004 views
My small sample size tured out to be right. Wow. There were a lot of leaning voters....meaning, voters who leaned in a whispered they were for trump who would never admit it publicly...
Exactly that. The 'guilty-feeling' or 'embarrassed/harrassed' voter is never going to admit their intentions to the pollsters - it's why they got it so wrong with the last general election, Brexit and last night.
The EU thing hasn't gone away because as soon as we're "out", unless people's standard of living improves dramatically there will be a growing call to rejoin. And you will get a political party making this a core policy, thereby putting right back on the political agenda.
I don't see how anyone would want Clinton or Trump either, but usually when people don't want either candidate they simply don't bother to vote. However in this case the turnout has been huge.
No it won't go away if and when we are out, but between now and then the EU will have to decide what the hell it actually is, rather than trying to be different things to different people whilst applying the same rules to everyone. It's not sustainable like this as a long term proposition and that's not our fault. I think that we're better off if our political parties are fighting on a range of issues without worrying about a substantial part of their support being creamed off for some ongoing single issue. I think that it was correct to try to force the issue, but there's obviously another way of looking at that.
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US Elections 2016 on 14:05 - Nov 9 with 2180 views
I'm not so sure. He's constantly said for nigh on 10 years positive things about Putin. Doesn't seem to me that he wants a war with Russia, quite the opposite. Seems to me the one thing he's actually been consistent about!
Forget for a moment the rights & wrongs of Remain/Leave and Trump/Clinton, I'm interested to know what has happened over the last 10,20,30,40 years that has got us to where we are.
My theory is this...... in the UK, London and the south east has the biggest population density, contributes probably the most to the UK economy and mainly voted Remain whilst the midlands and the forgotten ex-industrial north all voted Leave.
In the US, The upper east cost and largely west coast have the biggest population density, contributes probably the most to the US economy and mainly voted Clinton whilst the forgotten ex-industrial middle all voted Trump.
Big similarity. I think these people feel very much isolated by their own country whilst the politicians forge ahead putting the rest of the world ahead of their own people and those people have now fought back.
Thoughts?
[Post edited 9 Nov 2016 11:54]
Pretty decent summary. The North and Midlands in England and the rust belt States in the USA felt bypassed by the political establishment and vote Leave or Trump.
I just don't see how the results will actually solve the issues raised by either of those groups of voters. Brexit could have more downsides to come and how Trump is going to deindustrialise states like OH, PA, WI, etc.
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the Earth all one's lifetime." (Mark Twain)
Find me on twitter @derbyhoop and now on Bluesky
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US Elections 2016 on 14:15 - Nov 9 with 2137 views
The mean income of Trump voters was ~$70k, significantly higher than the nationwide average. More people voted for Clinton than Trump in the the under $30k, and $30k-$50k bracket.
Hard to see how this is a win for the working class, especially for people of colour and from the LGBT community.
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US Elections 2016 on 14:15 - Nov 9 with 2136 views
-Trump seems dead keen on the tactical use of nuclear weapons, where Reagan's squad took it as read it was best used as an ace card rather than the go to
- Reagan staunchly backed allies and was a big believer in NATO. Trump does not believe America should fulfil its obligations to its allies, meaning they will no longer fall under America's nuclear umbrella
- US policy for the last 40 years has been nuclear non proliferation. The number of warheads in the world has been decreased dramatically. But due to the above two factors you now have South Korea and even Japan asking why they can't have nuclear weapons. Trump's isolationism will create a vacuum that others will look to fill.
The only real winner is Putin. He is going to steamroller Eastern Europe and a republican US president no less is going to actively coalesce
I can't see the Americans setting a nuclear precedent anywhere - and how would it work? It's hard to identify your target at all, let alone remove it from the local population. He'll be pretty poor and rudderless looking after a year or so, unless he's getting some help, and the people who know what they are doing won't want to go nuclear or desert NATO as it's not in the USA's commercial interests. Eastern Europe - you really think that Russia has the stomach for that? The boyos in charge are doing too nicely to be much bothered about proper wars aren't they?
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US Elections 2016 on 14:38 - Nov 9 with 2079 views
The mean income of Trump voters was ~$70k, significantly higher than the nationwide average. More people voted for Clinton than Trump in the the under $30k, and $30k-$50k bracket.
Hard to see how this is a win for the working class, especially for people of colour and from the LGBT community.
It's already being passed off as a movement of working class voters, but that's just not born out by the voting patterns. People with money voted for Trump.
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US Elections 2016 on 14:50 - Nov 9 with 2066 views
My small sample size tured out to be right. Wow. There were a lot of leaning voters....meaning, voters who leaned in a whispered they were for trump who would never admit it publicly...
You were right,but how sad is it that the sneering cosmopolitan left have made democracy a concealed shameful experience for so many.
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US Elections 2016 on 14:51 - Nov 9 with 2066 views
Actually Clinton got more support from working class people. Meanwhile, Trump had a 15 point lead over her amongst white, college educated men and a clear lead with rich, college educated people overall. He also got 30% of the Hispanic vote and 25% of the Jewish vote. The stats are pretty clear.
Whatever the commentators say, this victory had very little to do with poor, uneducated people.
It had everything to do with poor uneducated WHITE people.
Non college educated white males specifically. Unprecedented levels of difference between how that group of voters made their decision between candidates
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US Elections 2016 on 14:52 - Nov 9 with 2059 views
No it won't go away if and when we are out, but between now and then the EU will have to decide what the hell it actually is, rather than trying to be different things to different people whilst applying the same rules to everyone. It's not sustainable like this as a long term proposition and that's not our fault. I think that we're better off if our political parties are fighting on a range of issues without worrying about a substantial part of their support being creamed off for some ongoing single issue. I think that it was correct to try to force the issue, but there's obviously another way of looking at that.
I agree with you there, and if the EU ends up as a deregulated trade zone that would be great. But since most politicians understand more about grabbing the popular vote rather than they do about macroeconomic strategy, I won't hold my breath.
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