Forum | Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. by BigDaveMyCock

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Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. 07:28 - Jun 28 with 38060 views

Only speculation but a few things have happened, in particular in the Conservative Party, that makes me think that the appetite for Brexit has reduced significantly.

Cameron's decision not to invoke Article 50 immediately has thrown the leavers into turmoil as it is now down to one of them to do the ultimate. It will now be the responsibility of the new PM to invoke Articld 50, a move nobody intended, or wants, to make. IDS and Gove all noted by their absence and Boris looked pale as milk yesterday with the realisation that Merkel et al have said a firm no to negotiations prior to invoking Article 50. This means the future PM will have nothing to 'sell' to the country or the markets prior to invoking Article 50. They will not be able to have one piece of legislation or even negotiation in their hands re 50% of UK trade. It would be like pushing an economic nuclear bomb if a new PM was to invoke Article 50 in such a situation as market confidence would collapse and multinationals up sticks. This will be an even more difficult act to undertake if the UK is in recession, which even the leavers acknowledge may very well be the case. Indeed, Boris has come out attempting to ease fears by stating that the UK remains very much at the heart of Europe and nothing much will change with the ultimate irony being that if we are to negotiate access to the single market then the terms of that negotiations will be very much like what we have already. Merkel et al permitting.

There are now rumours that top people in the Tories including some leavers and whips are sufficiently spooked enough to not back Boris or another leave candidate.

Could be wrong but expect stalemate. EU will call UK bluff and UK will be unwilling to do the ultimate deed because they will not be able to get the deals they so desperately want. Fascinating times.

[Post edited 28 Jun 2016 7:35]

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Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 14:36 - Jul 16 with 1226 views

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Brexit. I wouldn't be so sure. on 14:18 - Jul 16 by mingthemerciless
I agree. Very early days yet.

The Markets don't do "early days" . The pound dropped like a stone on the 24th June and has been up and down since - the FX banksters made a fortune. most of the Brexit effect is now built into prices and the actual Article 50 could cause a minor bump but everyone knows it's happening now, so no major shock when it does. It's the Euro banks you need to worry about - Spain Italy, Deutsche Bank Credit Suisse , plus Citibank in NY and Barclays in the UK. If you have more than £75 k in Barclays I suggest you start spreading it into other banks asap.