Saints have come a long way this season and its time to put in that final effort that will make sure that all the hard work doesnt come to nothing, starting at London Road tonight.
There is no reason for Saints to have any fear travelling to Peterborough tonight, League tables dont lie at this stage of the season and we are in the top two whereas the Posh are in the lower half of mid table not having troubled either the promotion race nor the relegation dogfight.
As always they have a good home record based on scoring goals, but that home record is based on winning games (10) and not drawing many (2), however they have lost almost as many as they have won (9), yes they have scored quite a few, 38 in total, but when you realise that 25 of these were scored in their first ten home fixtures dating back to the first week in December, you realise that they are not the free scoring team that they were in the first half of their home fixtures, managing only 13 in the last 12 games, defensively they have been a little tighter in that time, they conceded 19 at home in those first ten games, but in the last dozen only 14, it seems a trip to London Road isnt the high scoring goal fest that it was earlier in the season or indeed last term.
So Saints first job is to not concede, this has been a problem in recent weeks, our last four games have seen us let in 8 goals and that includes 5 in our last two home games from only 8 shots on target, what this is telling us is that in general our defence is tight, but it is prone to errors and lapses in concentration, we have to eradicate this in the last three games, to be blunt if we let in five goals inn the last three games then there is a good chance we wont be promoted, we have to build our foundation from the back and if we do we have the firepower to score goals.
So the message is that Peterborough will probably play a similar game to Reading they will keep it tight at the back and look for the chances that come their way and look to take them, our task is to make sure they dont and punish them when we get our chances.
Nigel Adkins doesnt need to make many changes to the side that lost to Reading, in fact in my mind he only has two to consider, the first is who to play on the right side, Richard Chaplow or Guly, or perhaps take a gamble on Jason Puncheon, my money would be on Guly, the man had a great first half of the season when he was one of the leading scorers in the league and high in the assists table, sadly some of our fans have got on his back and this along with never knowing whether he would be up front or in midfield from one week to the next hasnt helped him, but he does have the guile needed to open up a tight home defence.
The other decision might be needed if Schneiderlin is fit, does he reinstate him and if so is it Cork or Hammond that makes way.
On the bench its probably going to be pretty much the same, Lee Barnard is likely to be missing due to his court appearance and I personally would go for an attacking line up.
Steve De Ridder is still worth his place on the bench, but after another damp squid against Reading you have to question whether we would be better putting Puncheon on, De Ridder now has a trademark get the ball run forward ten yards, stop turn around run in a circle and then pass it back ten yards to the player who gave you the ball in the first place, football is about end product and for all his bluster he is not delivering, given that Guly or Chaplow will be a given on the bench depending on who starts, will Nigel Adkins decide to gamble on Puncheon at the expense of De Ridder.
Of course this is now a must win game, it shouldnt be and wouldnt be if we had won a few more must win games out of the 42 that we have played so far, every game for a football club is must win, the only difference between this one and say Doncaster back in November is that we can now clearly see the consequences if we dont win it.
Saints need to step out and win this game like the top two side that we are, the season is still in our hands, lets make sure it still is come the end of this evening.