Another big game at the top of the table
Derby host Saints at Pride Park looking for the three points that will bring them level with their visitors, although goal difference will probably still keep them behind us (touch wood)
The phrase "Must Win Game" has been used a lot on here over the last year and there are those that suggest that its far too early in the season to bandy it about, I would disagree, if Saints are to harbour hopes of promotion then the the truth is that they have to win a lot lot more than they lose and draw, given that there arent any "Must Lose Games" then by definition we should be looking to make the must win one the next 20 and get promotion in the bag long before the endof the season.
But a look at our next four fixtures starting with this one makes daunting reading, there isnt a lot of room for error, in a little over two weeks time after Middlesbrough's visit to St Mary's we could be sat well clear of the rest or we could be out of the top six, a win at Derby gives us a good base to buold on in the remaining three of these fixtures, so perhaps this game is must win not just for the three points, but the confidence boost it will give us not just in general but on the road where we have faultered in our last three fixtures.
For Nigel Adkins the bulk of his side is probably bolted on, the goalkeeper and defence virtually pick themselves these days, although Im not sure thats entirely a good thing given our penchant for cconceding soft goals.
In midfield and attack though its a different story there are three key decisions to be made.
1. Centre of midfield Schneiderlin or Hammond.
2. Wide Right. Guly or Chaplow Or De Ridder
3. Up front Guly or Connolly
These are the only three decisions in the starting line up I see that the manager has to make.
My opinion is that he will go for Hammond in the centre and Guly up front in what will be a cautious line up, on the right its a little more of a puzzle, but given I expect caution rather than all out attack I would expect to see Chaplow there.
That would leave on the bench Bialkowski, Connolly, Martin, Schneiderlin and then comes the difficult part, who should that fifth sub be, De Ridder will offer an outlet with pace, Holmes showed that he has a little bit more than just pace, but may be held back, and the temptation is to put another defender on the bench like Butterfield who can offer flexibility, personally i would go for this and perhaps opt to leave off Martin, if we do have a problem with central defence Cork, Schneiderlin couldn both slot in, this would allow us a few more options.
Hopefully the break will have done Saints good, not only allowed them to re charge their batteries, but also to work on those areas they have struggled in away from home especially and that is not only the distribution from the back but the defensive aspect where too many times we have been pulled apart.
But it is a game that Saints are well capable of getting something out of, we should hold no fears going to Pride Park we should firstly want to get a grip on the game and then to impose ourselves on it, in our last three away performances we have had to play catch up and although in all three we almost got ourselves a vital goal that would have meant more points, the fact is that we didnt, we cannot afford to keep gifting the oppositin goals and setting ourself the task of outscoring them, only three times this season have we kept a clean sheet and to be blunt thats not good enough for a team that is top of the league and wants to stay there, our task would be made a lot easier if we cut out individual error and this in turn would exert pressure on the opposition.
By that I mean mentally, the other teams will have watched us, they know that we are always likely to concede, but they also know that we always score, the longer a game goes on, if they dont score it will weigh on their mind that we probabaly will, getting promotion is about mental toughness, we showed that in the final stages of last season we need to start doing so now.