| Queens Park Rangers 1 v 2 Portsmouth EFL Championship Saturday, 19th October 2024 Kick-off 15:00 |  |
Performance culture – Preview Friday, 18th Oct 2024 22:30 by Clive Whittingham QPR finally have a Saturday 3pm game to get their teeth into at Loftus Road and, without a win in six games, Marti Cifuentes’ stuttering team need to make the most of that against winless Portsmouth. QPR (1-4-4 DLDLLL 22nd) v Portsmouth (0-5-4 LLLDLD 23rd)Sky’s Super Saturday Brunch Spectacular >>> Saturday October 29, 2024 >>> Kick Off 15.00 (!!!) >>> Weather – Wet >>> Loftus Road, London, W12 Pass your time and pulp your liver with LFW’s exciting new drinking game we’re simply calling Performance - a word somebody, somewhere, at QPR, suddenly really likes. Every time you spot a member of salaried QPR staff with the word ‘performance’ in their job title, you take a drink. Perhaps we could do it by seniority as well? So one drink for “assistant performance analyst”, two drinks for “LEEEEAD performance analyst”, and three for “head of integrated performance”. There’s a “performance nutritionist”, which I’d presume is a similar role to the one I’ve seen at other clubs called “nutritionist”. I’m a bit of a loss for “head of performance services” though. Not sure what one of those is, but we’ve got one. As well as a “physical performance coach”. We’ve got a “performance logistics and player care lead”. I think that’s… housing and stuff? And the almighty "director of performance" (down it, down it), although he's splitting his time with Dubai and the Brooklyn Nets. I’m going to get myself in trouble again here, aren’t I? Or drunk.
It was the staff to player ratio and the hilarious ‘shit from LinkedIn’ job titles that stood out to me from this season’s squad photo, released on Thursday to a fanbase never knowingly undersold in its ability to analyse and overreact to anything and everything that’s happening. To others it was the apparently pointed shunting of Rayan Kolli down to the development squad snap. A prominent member of the first team through pre-season, a starter on day one against West Brom where he registered a classy assist, now unable to even make the bench for a team that’s won one game all season, looks desperately short of ideas and goals in attack, and is, to this point, a thoroughly boring watch. The Twitter demographic of the fanbase (#bring) has certainly not taken the Kolli situation well. I haven’t seen the Fifa Ultimate Teams lads this upset since we released Cole Kpekawa, who has of course gone on to win 84 caps for England. Starved of any vaguely playable graduate from our academy, desperate for some joy in the QPR bit of our lives (13 wins from the last 54 games at Loftus Road, by the way), we are super prone to over hyping anything remotely promising progressing through our youth ranks. Remember the period of national mourning declared when we released Peter Skapetis? Last spotted at the Altona Magic. Kolli has certainly looked promising to me at development and youth level too. On his first team outings he’s produced two assists of outstanding natural beauty, at home to Cardiff and West Brom, which were like handing a Philly Cheesesteak sandwich to those of us fed on the gruel of Paul Smyth’s final delivery the rest of the time. A club that makes as many outright terrible decisions as QPR is going to get its fingers burned, Millwall Eze-style, sooner rather than later. But then when they gave massive deals to any half decent youth teamer they got stung the other way around by situations like Nico Hamalainen. Kolli’s only 19, he’s made one start in senior football in his entire life, and, while the cross for Lucas Andersen in that West Brom game was a thing of majesty, the rest of his performance was suspect. West Brom targeted him, successfully. He was found wanting, defensively, physically, and for pace. As you would expect for a kid of his inexperience. Christian Nourry said something without really saying anything at all – “Rayan is acutely aware what he needs to do to get in the team” - as he did with so many questions at the fans forum. The answer, at face value, was there’s a lot of competition for places in that position. But to go from starting the first game of the season to not even being on the bench or the team picture hints at there being more to it than that. Cifuentes, pushed by WLS today, says Kolli was supposed to be in the photograph but wasn’t, and he doesn’t know why. If you create an information vacuum all sorts of things you don’t want will fill it. Rumour, counter rumour and ITK accounts looking for followers, clout and wanking material. You’ve now got people claiming they know what Kolli earns and/or what the club have offered him. That we’ve told him he’s got no future because Koki Saito is better than him, even though Saito is only a loan player. That Kolli refused to go out on loan himself. Vocal family members on social media are having their say. And so, the rumour mill churns, over a teenager, with one start for the club. Kolli might be good, might be brilliant, but might well not. I remember Kieron St Aimee being the messiah. And Angelo Balanta. Antonio German. Mide Shodipo. Kolli needs a loan, needs time, needs space. He doesn’t need this. He really doesn’t need this. Since the forum, QPR have lost twice more. Now three defeats in a row, six without a win, bottom three in the league. The idea the team is just brimming over with players better than Rayan and there’s nothing more to it than that only sustains as long as the team wins, even occasionally. As soon as it stops, people point and cry bullshit. This is the key failing of so much of Nourry’s communications strategy at QPR so far – it only works until the team goes on one of its six-game doom spirals at which point “confidentiality clause” and “competitive advantage” don't wash any more. People want to know exactly who, what, where and how. If you just tell them that in the first place, it buys you so much more time. What we/he desperately need is a win. Nothing succeeds like winning. Nobody cares about the team photo then.
There are still enough signs it is coming. Some of the stats and analytics on which this new-look team has been built are alarming and align entirely with what you think you’ve been watching – bottom of the league for interceptions, bottom of the league for tackles in the middle third, bottom of the league for total tackles, third bottom for fouls conceded. Ahead for only 8% of our game time so far. Pathetic. But a lot of them are still well in our favour, and hint particularly at a breakout run of form for one or both of Karamoko Dembele and/or Koki Saito. Saito in particular currently putting up numbers the xG evangelists will tell you hint at some sort of mild imminent eruption. The return of Ilias Chair could be a key to this lock. You can’t double up and crowd them all out. Teams' attempts to do that to Chair previously made Chris Willock look like one of the ten best players in the division and, well, look how he’s doing now. We’ll ignore that Chair and Saito play the same position for now, this is the positive bit of the preview. I’m not going to just copy and paste the line I keep using about the profile of signing we’ve made – where we signed them from, how old they all are – making a slow burn start inevitable. But it was. No surprise Paul Nardi - not only the oldest and most experienced but also the one who was signed first and has done the most training sessions with the team and the manager - is the first to settle and impress. Losing Jake Clarke-Salter, Jack Colback and Ilias Chair right down the middle of the team while you’re trying to bed in these ten new players has been proper worst case scenario. Clarke-Salter is your best defender, and only left-sided back. Colback, while clearly the latest beneficiary of Ryan Manning syndrome where you become a better QPR player the longer you don’t play for QPR, is your only aggressive, shithouse midfielder. Chair is your best player. While it sounds like Colback is out for a while longer – he’ll be the actual Pirlo, not just the ginger one, by the time he plays again – Clarke-Salter and Chair are due to return this weekend. We're very early into something that was always going to take a while, and the bar for success here is ridiculously low. If we finish 10th/11th/12th this year that will be hailed as significant progress (Bristol City, Cardiff, Preston finished there last year). If five of the signings turn out to be complete crap it won't matter if four others are decent Championship players and one goes for big money. Madsen, Celar, Santos, Bennie and Ashby can all be complete duds as long as Nardi, Morrison, Saito and Varane are ok and Dembele goes for money. Interchange the names to taste, but fact is you can finish 12th in the league and half your signings can be complete shit and that will still be significant progress here. That's a ridiculously low bar that should still be cleared this season. We’d already be in that position had one more shot gone in against Plymouth and in the first ten minutes against Hull. Everything else could be the same, and we’d be tenth. There has been an element of bad luck to all of this so far – Sam Field miscontrols a ball 35 yards from goal, in the Championship you ordinarily wouldn’t expect it to be in the bottom corner of your net a quarter of a second later. Things can quickly spiral though, as we’ve seen so many times before. Leeds and Burnley away, Boro and Sunderland at home, lie just beyond this double header against fellow slow starters Pompey and Cov. Confidence and belief drains out of the team before you can get newcomers up to speed and absentees back in the line up and you’re screwed. What we need is an actual “performance” rather than the Jake Humphrey version. Less chat and LinkedIn job titles, more tackling and lead taking. Birmingham’s hubristic relegation just a few months ago serves as a very stark reminder – you go to League One with a “head of methodology” on your staff, and you look like a bunch of right twats. Links >>> Spencer settles Pompey riot – History >>> Winless Pompey – Oppo Profile >>> Linington in charge – Referee >>> Defensive set pieces ptI – Analysis >>> Defensive corners ptII – Analysis >>> Perrypheral Thoughts – Column >>> Portsmouth official website >>> Fratton Park Ground Guide >>> True Blue Army – Forum >>> P04Cast – Podcast >>> Pompey Chimes – Forum >>> The News – Local Press We’re gutted to hear of the passing of legendary QPR fan George Gristwood at the age of 94. An ever-present home and awayer with Rangers since the war. Truly the best of us. Mel has penned a tribute on our message board. Below the foldTeam News: With Jonathan Varane still suspended following his red card at Blackburn, and Nicolas Madsen and Sam Field hardly forming a dynamic midfield duo in the defeat at Derby, the hope was Jack Colback might be fit to return to action to stiffen up the midfield for this battle between two early strugglers. Unfortunately, he’s had surgery on the knee injury suffered at Sheff Wed and, along with centre back Liam Morrison, is now several weeks away from action at least. Better news in front and behind of the midfield though. Ilias Chair came through a behind-closed-doors friendly with Wycombe and may be in line for a first start of the season. Jake Clarke-Salter did not participate in that 1-0 defeat to the League One side but is said to be ready to resume his duties as left centre back on Saturday.
Portsmouth won promotion from League One last season despite a catalogue of injuries, and that poor luck with fitness continued through a summer that saw top scorer Colby Bishop sidelined with a heart defect, and into this season where they’ve been missing key players in every game. At the back Conor Shaughnessy hasn’t played since the second game of the season, Tom McIntyre has missed a number of games and new centre half Ibane Bowat has been ruled out for the season after rupturing a tendon in training. Ryley Towler has already doubled his appearance total from last season and Jacob Farrell has been out for nearly a month. Summer signing Nicolas Schmid debuted in goal in the 1-1 draw against Oxford last time out after Will Norris conceded six at Stoke the game before. To compound the loss of Bishop from the strike force, Kusini Yengi has missed most of the season with a groin issue and Brighton loan man Mark O’Mahony has also had to sit out a number of games. Callum Lang is an added doubt this weekend. Sammy Silvera travelled to international duty with Australia but didn’t see a minute of action. Elsewhere: League football coughs back into life for 20 minutes or so before another crucial international break, beginning with tonight’s Yorkshire off between Leeds Leeds Leeds and Sheffield Red Stripe. Watford endured so much ridicule for their decision to ditch Handsome Rob Edwards only for him to go and win promotion at rivals Luton instead that they’d probably quite enjoy nudging him closer to the Kenilworth Road exit door tomorrow lunchtime. Both the Hatters and the Hornets are defying pre-season expectations in entirely different ways and that derby game should be more than enough for the television audience to be going on with at 12.30 tomorrow. Sadly, for reasons nobody can quite fathom or explain, we apparently also need the thrill rides between Cardiff and Wayne Rooney’s Plymouth, Oxford and West Brom, and a scorcher between Preston Knob End and Coventry to also be shifted and televised at the same time, by the same broadcaster. Or you can watch Reading v Crawley. Or Wycombe v Peterborough. Or Accrington v Barrow. Fucking scandalously mental. The pick of the 3pm games is probably Sheffield Wednesday, still stuttering in their quest to fulfil the pre-season hype around Danny Rohl, hosting Burnley, who are doing exactly what we said they’d do and boring the tits off everybody on the way to a promotion sealed with 30 single-goal victories nobody remembers. Blackburn are hosting Swanselona, Milllllll are at home to Derby, Stoke play Norwich from whom they hired manager Narcis Pelach last month. Bristol City travel to Middlesbrough tomorrow without manager Liam Manning who is taking a step back from the club following the death of his baby son. Unimaginably horrific. For all that it matters after that, the weekend will be rounded off on Sunday when Hull host surprise league leaders (shut up, Gab) Sunderland. Referee: One of the Championship’s better, and certainly one of its most experienced officials, James Linington takes a 29th QPR game of his career but just a third appointment so far with Portsmouth. He’s from the Isle of Wight, so could be a lively journey home if this goes against the visitors. Details. FormQPR: The good news is that on October 19 QPR finally have a home game on a Saturday at 15.00 for the first time since April 6, 196 days ago. No other team in the EFL has had all its home games moved at this point in the season. The bad news is Rangers have lost three in a row for the first time since January (Cardiff, Bournemouth, Watford all H) and are six without victory for the first time since those three losses closed out a run of eight without success. Rangers followed that by winning ten and losing only four of the next 19, so here’s hoping. But only Rangers and Plymouth are without a clean sheet at this point in the campaign, and QPR have only led for 8% of their game time so far this season. They've only scored the first goal in a game twice, and are yet to lead at half time. It’s been a fortnight of deep dive analytics into why QPR’s summer of relative optimism is apparently draining away. Some of the stats past the eye test – bottom of the league for interceptions, bottom of the league for tackles in the middle third (4.44 a game), bottom of the league for total tackles made, third bottom for fouls conceded speaks to a powderpuff midfield that is getting completely overrun and elevating Jack Colback to some God-like status the longer he’s out. Some of them absolutely do not – sixth in the league for forward passes, fifth lowest total of backward passes in the league, fourth lowest for sideways passes left, 11th for sideways passes right for instance. Or 11th best in the league for xG when defending set plays. Among all Championship players to play 200 minutes this season, QPR’s Zan Celar has had the most shots per 90 minutes (4.6). This is still a small sample size, we’re a dozen league and cup games and two and a half months in, and games against Plymouth and Hull at home could easily have produced a different outcome from the same performances and team selections had the opposition goalkeepers played slightly worse. Had they done so we’d be in a clutch of teams between tenth and 13th with 12 points, everything else the same but everybody a lot calmer. As it is, though, two points from four games is the Champ’s worst home record and it means Rangers are once again six league and cup games at Loftus Road into a season without a home win – it took them nine attempts last year. Rangers have won just seven of 31 home games since the start of last season, 13 out of 54 since the start of the previous. You couldn’t really be asking for a better opponent to break that against than Portsmouth. Not only because of their start to the season (on which more shortly) but also because Pompey haven’t won a league game here in 13 attempts back to 1961 (W8 D5). They did win 2-0 here last time out in the League Cup though, one of Mark Warburton’s first games in 2019, and a repeat would exacerbate QPR’s failure to make the most of a relatively easy start to the season with games away at Leeds and Burnley and home to Boro and Sunderland lying just around the corner. October is also not the month to be backing QPR wins.
Pompey: Stepping up from League One with the squad and budget Portsmouth have was always going to be a difficult task, before the injuries outlined further up this piece bit into them. They’ve also been afflicted with a uniquely difficult fixture list having started the season playing Leeds (5th), Boro (9th), Sunderland (1st), West Brom (4th), Burnley (3rd) and Sheff Utd (2nd) within their first seven games. However, if they thought life began at struggling Stoke and then at home to fellow promotes Oxford then they’ve been disappointed with a 6-1 shellacking in the Potteries followed by a 1-1 draw at home to the U’s. It means, sigh, they come to Loftus Road looking for a first win of the season having drawn five and lost four of nine Championship matches so far. They haven’t won anywhere since April 27 at Lincoln, 171 days ago and are the only Championship club yet to win a game. Only in 1929-30 (ten games) and 1937-38 (15 games) have they endured a longer winless start to a season, both times as a top-flight side. Away from home they’ve drawn at Leeds and Boro, which were good results featuring plenty of goals – they scored three at Elland Road on day one and only got pegged back in injury time, then another two at the Riverside. However they’ve lost both aways since at Burnley and Stoke and have scored one goal or fewer in all eight other league and cup games including all of the last six. They’ve failed to score at all on four occasions already. Mousinho’s side have already conceded 20 goals, the Championship’s worst total, and 13 goals on the road is the joint worst in the whole EFL along with Colchester. Portsmouth haven’t beaten QPR in a league game home or away in eight attempts going back to August 1998 when John Aloisi, Alan McLoughlin and Martin Phillips bagged a 3-0 win for the hosts at Fratton Park in Division One. This is the first league meeting in 11 years since Clint Hill and Adel Taarabt (of course) scored in a 2-0 win here as Neil Warnock’s men marched to promotion in 2011. Prediction: There’s still time to enter our Prediction League for 2024/25, where we’ll once again be handing out prizes for being top at Christmas and overall winner from The Art of Football - sample the merch from our sponsor’s newly extended QPR collection here. For the first time last year we had joint winners so this season you’ll be hearing from one or both WestonsuperR and SimplyNico in the match previews. Nico’s Prediction: “I got off the mark for the season last time out with score and scorer (or lack thereof). This time around, we are up against one of the teams we have to finish above. Whilst we have Ilias Chair back for some creativity, we have no midfield bite and with Colback out for the next few weeks, whilst we may have a bit more up front, expect to see the same gaps in the middle of the pitch. That said, Portsmouth have injuries themselves and I can see this being a poor quality, scrappy home win.” Weston’s Call “We desperately need a win, but so do Pompey who worryingly have looked better than their league results suggest, at least they have when I have watched them. Our dire form and lack of a win at home this season makes it hard to predict a win so I am going with a draw and Dembele to get off the mark for off with the goal.” Nico’s Prediction: QPR 1-0 Portsmouth. Scorer – Michy Frey WestonSuperR’s Prediction: QPR 1-1 Portsmouth. Scorer – Karamoko Dembele LFW’s Prediction: QPR 2-0 Portsmouth. Scorer – Ilias Chair If you enjoy LoftforWords, please consider supporting the site through a subscription to our Patreon or tip us via our PayPal account loftforwords@yahoo.co.uk. Pictures - Ian Randall Photography Please report offensive, libellous or inappropriate posts by using the links provided.
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