A week later than everybody else, QPR are in League Cup action tonight as they face Norwich City at Loftus Road.

QPR (1-0-1 LW 16th) v Norwich (1-1-0 WD 5th)

Rumbelows Cup, first round >>> Wednesday August 16, 2023 >>> Kick Off 19.45 >>> Weather – Warm, sunny, dry >>> Loftus Road, London, W12

The League Cup first round preview. Like a sort of mini-LFW Christmas Day, eagerly anticipated by all those who believe.

Both regular readers already know what this is going to say. There’s going to be a thousand words or so at the top here about the shame of the devaluation of the cup competitions in general. About teams ditching out of the only trophy they could ever possibly lift because of some perceived mortal peril it places their sixteenth place finish in a league they could never possibly win. About all the times teams like Leicester, Brentford, Brighton, Newcastle and last season Sheff Utd combined runs to the latter stages of the cups to build confidence, momentum and excitement that aided their promotions from the Championship (conveniently ignoring all the many other times the extra games torched club’s seasons, or that last time we were promoted from this level we deliberately lost in the first round of both under Neil Warnock). And then we’ll tell that story about Steve McClaren making ten changes for a cup tie at Blackpool, losing, and then his rested first teamers getting annihilated at Swansea at the weekend anyway. Or Mark Warburton resting Nahki Wells to play against us, and also losing the next match at Blackburn regardless.

I write this every year because it is what I believe. Winning breeds confidence and momentum, and boy could QPR do with a bit of that after 18 months of losing every other game they play. Losing as often as we do, as shambolically as we do, in cup competitions only furthers the notion that we’re not very good, and a bit tin pot. Gareth Ainsworth could certainly do with it and while the chat from the fans, and the lack of attendances at games, suggests the supporters no longer really care about these games either, they’ll certainly hold it against a manager if he loses it – as McClaren found out from the away end at Bloomfield Road and Chris Ramsey likewise when beaten at home by Carlisle. For a manager already under pressure, a manager about whom the fans already have doubts, losing a cup tie like that does not go down well whether the fans have turned up or not. Ainsworth, in that regard, probably a bit fortunate he’s drawn one of the Championship’s better sides tonight.

It also breeds excitement and engagement. Not tonight, clearly, when half the ground will be closed. But you saw what happened when under first McClaren and then Warburton we dipped far enough into the FA Cup to get a fifth round tie at home to Premier League Watford, and the League Cup to beat Everton and then get conned out of a trip to the quarter finals against Sunderland. Full houses, crackling atmosphere, excitement. Rangers have been in the Championship for the thick end of a decade now. We’re trying to build a fan base, not destroy one, and you’re far more likely to get youngsters or a local population enthused with a big cup tie under the lights against a Premier League team, than you are oh so many dreary Saturday afternoons getting shithoused by Preston North End. At the moment we’re being asked to fork over ever increasing amounts of money to watch a shit team in a shit league. Chances to enthuse and excite this fan base should not be passed up. Again, in that regard, Ainsworth might again be fortunate that not only have we pulled a Championship team tonight (one we’ve played more than any other in our history), but the reward for a victory is another wholly inconvenient trip to a Bristol City side we play all the time as well. It’s like some higher power is going out of their way to make this season as dire as possible for QPR fans – who did the second-round draw, Vigo the Carpathian? Now is a season of evil.

And if you want to be really cynical about it, these things bring money. Not tonight – these early round games actually run at a loss if you have to host them – but those ties with Watford, Everton and Sunderland brought full houses, big travelling support, live TV coverage, and money. We’ve spent all summer saying QPR have to toss everything they can overboard and make do with signing 30-somethings on free transfers because of their FFP headroom issues, and yet every year the club willingly ditch out of the chance to go to Spurs or Arsenal or Man Utd and pocket 45% of the gate money, or pack out Loftus Road and pick up a handy fee from the BBC and ITV (not to mention the exposure).

Then all that said, I look at our squad this season, and the prospect of not only an extra game with Norwich but then another trip to Bristol City on top of that, and I wonder whether even I might park all that. We are in grave danger of being relegated this year, it's not like we're just bobbing along in midtable with nothing else to occupy us, and the squad is painfully thin.

We’ve been saying for a while QPR have a decent starting 11 but very little beyond that, well for 23/24 it looks like they have a barely even competitive starting 11 and absolutely nothing at all backing it up. Jimmy Dunne injuring his shoulder in pre-season immediately reduced you to starting the opening game at Watford with Joe Gubbins at centre half, with sadly predictable results. The bench at Cardiff City at the weekend resembled a creche, and sure enough when Paul Smyth and Sinclair Armstrong, the key men in that surprise victory, had to be removed having run themselves into the ground the comfortable 2-0 lead quickly turned to a 2-1 nerve shredder and nearly vanished entirely. First team wise are you really risking those two, Lyndon Dykes, Ilias Chair, Sam Field, Steve Cook, Asmir Begovic etc tonight knowing what lies beyond if they get hurt? And finance wise, with another player sale still desperately required, are you putting the two or three there is a little bit of interest around in out there tonight?

I’d be surprised, and for once I’m not sure I’d be overly angry about it if we decide against.

Links >>> Norwich’s lively start – Interview >>> Familiar foe – History >>> Linington in charge – Referee >>> Norwich Official Website >>> The Pink ‘Un — Local Press and Forum >>> Eastern Daily Press — Local Press >>> My Football Writer - Norwich City >>> Along Come Norwich - Blog

Below the fold

Team News: Of the fringe players who could be involved guess there’s most intrigue around Taylor Richards, and whether he’s going to respond positively at any point to Ainsworth not even believing him good/committed/effective enough to get into this QPR team. Chris Willock was left out at Watford and brought on for the last minute of a game already lost, then didn’t travel to Cardiff because of a “knock picked up in training”. Ainsworth insists speculation about a move to Boro or Bristol City is exactly that, but clearly isn’t happy with the winger’s input or output – does he play tonight? Charlie Kelman came back for pre-season sharp and looking trim in what is almost certainly his last chance to make it at this level, but had a mare at Watford on opening night and desperately needs a goal if he’s given another run here. Sideshow Rayan made the bench for the first time at the weekend and anybody who’s watched him in action for our youth teams will be excited about the prospect of him making a first team bow this evening. One would assume Jack Colback and Jake Clarke-Salter won’t appear until the weekend against Ipswich, while Jimmy Dunne is a long term absentee.

Norwich are also likely to make multiple changes to a team that’s started an unfancied season with something of a bang – a last minute 2-1 home win against Hull and then pure Russell Martin nonsense at the weekend in which Southampton had 70% of the ball for an xG of barely one and conceded four goals. That would ordinarily mean Tim Krul replacing Angus Gunn in goal, but the veteran Dutchman is having a medical ahead of a possible move to Luton so maybe not. Norwich are talking about replacing him with Millwall’s accident prone George Long which is fairly mindblowing. Just four goals in 30 appearances for Adam Idah last season (one of those at Loftus Road, because of course), but the young Irish striker did score on the opening day against Hull and should get a chance from the start tonight. Centre back Jaden Warner was not involved for the U23s earlier in the week which may suggest he’s in line for a first team debut.

As ever, probably the most interesting bit of tonight will be the team selections.

Elsewhere: Usually a bit of a graveyard for Championship clubs, there were indeed nine fallers from this division when the rest of the First Round took place a week ago.

Of those who lost to lower division clubs perhaps the most eye-catching were Southampton going down 3-1 at Neil Harris’ League Two Gillingham, and Millwall getting tanked 4-0 at home by Reading. Watford picked much the same team that had humbled us 4-0 at Vicarage Road but nevertheless went out on penalties to Stevenage which rather puts our performance into perspective, while Sunderland and Preston also fell on spot kicks to Crewe and Salford respectively. Hull lost at home to Doncaster while Coventry were beaten at Wimbledon.

There were a couple of other all Championship ties as West Brom lost 2-1 at Stoke, Middlesbrough won 3-2 at Huddersfield.

From the bottom division Sutton United, Newport County, Wrexham and Harrogate all join Salford, Wimbledon and Crewe in the hat.

Referee: QPR regular James Linington journeys up from the Isle of Wight for this one. Details.

Form

QPR: The defeat on penalties to Charlton at this stage of last season’s competition, and loss at Fleetwood in the FA Cup, means QPR have been eliminated from cup competitions by League One opposition at least once in each of the last six seasons: Charlton 2022/23, Fleetwood (FA Cup) 2022/23, Sunderland 2021/22, Plymouth 2020/21, Pompey 2019/20, Blackpool 2018/19, MK Dons 17/18 (FA Cup). Rangers beat Orient on penalties after a 1-1 draw in 2021/22 and subsequently beat Oxford 2-0 at home and Premier League Everton on pens after a 2-2 draw at Loftus Road to reach round four. It was their best performance in the competition since 2008//09 when a shock win against Aston Villa at Villa Park took us into a fourth round 1-0 defeat at Old Trafford. Of course but for the latest Keith Stroud-supervised catastrophe, Charlie Austin’s legitimate late goal would have stood and QPR would have had a quarter final at Arsenal — the R’s haven’t been that deep into the competition since 1988/89 when they lost 5-2 at Nottingham Forest. Rangers have still only been to one cup quarter final, in either competition, since 1990 — the 1994/95 FA Cup quarter final away to Man Utd.

The surprise win at Cardiff means the R’s have only lost one of five away from home spanning the summer, and have won three of the last four. At Loftus Road, however, it’s one win in 15 matches and no wins here in five attempts – a sequence that includes a 1-1 draw here with Norwich in April. Rangers have played Norwich 129 times, more than any other club, but have never met in the League Cup. QPR are unbeaten in five cup ties against the Canaries though – winning two FA Cup ties after replays (1946/47 and 1909/10) and one ZDS Trophy match at Carrow Road 2-1 in 1991/92 with goals from Andy Sinton and Andy Impey.

Norwich There wasn’t much love for David Wagner’s Norwich in the season previews, but it’s been an entertaining start for them in the Championship. A 2-1 home win against Hull became something of the Keith Stroud Show in the end (shock) and then they followed that up with a remarkable 4-4 draw against Southampton at the weekend. Three of the six goals they’ve scored to this point have been in stoppage time at the end of either half. That’s all certainly a considerable uptick on the end of 22/23 when their 1-1 draw at Loftus Road was part of a sequence of one win from 11 fixtures to finish the campaign. They ended up without a win, or even a goal scored, in their last five home matches (L4 D1) and ended with a 1-0 loss to relegated Blackpool. Like ourselves, the League Cup is the only major trophy Norwich have won – 61/62 and 84/85 with further final appearances in 72/73 and 74/75. They haven’t made it to round four in five attempts though, and have only been beyond that stage once in the last 27 years – a quarter final appearance as a Premier League team in 2012/13.

Prediction: No Prediction League for the cup ties but reigning champion Aston has been in touch to say: “I think Gareth changes up the team a bit too much and it's a step too far for our second string. A 3-0 defeat against Norwich's second team.”

Aston’s Prediction: QPR 0-3 Norwich. No scorer.

LFW’s Prediction: QPR 0-2 Norwich. No scorer.

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TacticalR added 12:10 - Aug 19 Thanks for your preview. It's hard to take cup games seriously when nobody else does. And now, as you point out, now the squad is so threadbare that even the cup believers don't believe.
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