QPR and Middlesbrough, two of the Championship’s form teams and prime candidates for play-off spots, meet at Loftus Road this evening.

QPR (15-6-7 DWWDWL 4th) v Middlesbrough (13-6-9 WWWLDW 8th)

Mercantile Credit Trophy >>> Wednesday February 9, 2022 >>> Kick Off 19.45 >>> Weather — Grey, cold >>> Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium, Loftus Road, London, W12

They were still talking about Chris Wilder when I got to Alfreton in 2006. The weekly Ripley and Heanor News — you’d get a copy on Thursday with your pension — was my first cub reporter job out of school, and a piping hotbed of Derbyshire sporting prowess on the paper’s patch included Alfreton Town along with Belper Town, Matlock Town, Eastwood Town, Ilkeston Town, and plenty of other Towns besides. I earned £12,500 a year (with a 75 mile daily commute, a challenging accountancy situation) to write councils, courts and whatever fucking nonsense (and most of it was) that walked through the front door of the office. And, when Kev the sport guy was off, the sport.

Nicky Law was in charge of Alfreton by this point. We’d ring him for the team news, and general angry barbs about referees and rival clubs, on a Wednesday, which he’d deliver in what I’d describe as aggressive cockney, while taking orders in his burger van at the side of the A52, onions sizzling away in the background. The most non-league of non-league clubs, with a ground apparently assembled through many years’ enthusiastic attendance at car boot sales, I followed them, and their formidable centre half pairing of youngsters Aiden Flint and Kyle McFadzean, to a Conference North play-off final against Fleetwood in Fleetwood. They lost, wholly undeservedly, and a steward may or may not have had his face split open in the tunnel afterwards for daring to smirk as they returned to the dressing room. Law beat a hasty retreat, and I had to chase him across the pitch to the bus to try and get a comment on the game for the paper. I got my comment, but we couldn’t publish it. They did, a season later, play Conference ball, with big pay days at home to the likes of Luton and Grimsby, a remarkable achievement for a club that counts the dogs in attendance to boost the crowd figures.

Still, Kev, and everybody else attached with the club, would go immediately misty eyed at the mention of Wilder. A fairly steady, unremarkable, right back as a player, Wilder had taken the first managerial job of his career at “The Impact Arena” (all three words stretched to their limit by the state of the place) in 2001. He took over in October, stayed to the end of the season, and in that time lifted three cups and won a promotion. Just 27 weeks after sacking a manager three months into the season, Alfreton had won that level’s version of The League Cup, The President’s Cup, The Derbyshire Senior Cup, and had themselves a promotion from the Northern Counties East Premier League. This, needless to say, did not go unnoticed, and Wilder was immediately picked up by Halifax where he stayed for six years and maintained a winning record just shy of 40% at a club recently relegated from the league and heading fast towards liquidation. After that it was pure promotions: at Oxford, where multiple managers had failed to revive them out of non-league; at Northampton, where they won League Two with a hundred points despite being in administration and not getting paid; and, of course, at Sheff Utd, where he took a manager-destroying League One malaise and turned it into a ripsnorting Premier League surprise package. I was seriously shocked and surprised how quickly and dramatically the Blades fell apart last season, because if there’s one thing I’ve learned over the years it’s that you don’t back against a Chris Wilder team. Makes my prediction in this preview today a bit awkward.

It's no surprise to find that he’s got Middlesbrough motoring. They’ve won eight of 11 prior to tonight, lost only one, and one of the two draws was at Man Utd on Friday night where they won on penalties. While the media are falling over themselves for a chance to fellate Nottingham Forest, and the analytics types are still talking up Sheff Utd’s prospects, this is the team to fear most from the pack below us. With the best will in the world, the Fourteenth Annual Neil Warnock Farwell Tour was probably an annual Neil Warnock farewell tour too many. QPR’s outstanding 3-2 win on Teeside in August, completed despite playing with ten men for the whole second half, a reasonably good example of why the biggest problem with Boro pre-Christmas was the coaching. Wilder has closed the gaping gaps between the lines, got the ball on the floor, and got them playing forward. His front foot, ‘let’s give it a fucking go’, style is perfectly suited to Boro’s playing squad (though it’s rather mystifying why they’ve left Djed Spence on loan at Forest), and the club itself. I like going to Boro, I like the pub we use and the people we meet. They know their football, they’re keen to talk to you about it, and they come without the “we’re fucking massive and deserve much better than whatever’s happening at the moment” chip on their shoulder that afflicts rivals further up the North East coast, or heading south into Yorkshire. Considering it’s another identikit, new-build bowl of a stadium, they’ve done a good job of pumping the atmosphere up in the Riverside. They’re bringing 2,200 fans down for a Wednesday night game in London tonight which is immense. This lot are, now, a serious bloody threat.

QPR aren’t a bad side either of course, latest Peterborough debacle not withstanding. The victory at Middlesbrough earlier in the season really set the tone for the year. At the back, Rangers stood up and weathered a fierce storm through the first 15 minutes that would have buried most teams. I’d expect something similar tonight from the visitors, and this would be a very nice moment to reproduce the Reading first half rather than many of the other first halves that went before it. Then they started to play, and kept playing even after Moses Odubajo’s red card. Boro’s tactical set up may have been inept, but to go into that atmosphere and play in that manner with ten men, always piling forwards looking for more goals, was something to be really proud of. Remember, as well as scoring his crowd-gutting winner, Chris Willock nearly crowned a man of the match display with a fourth goal immediately afterwards. They couldn’t live with him, and his return having been rested at the weekend could be key this evening. If a team has played better than we did at the Riverside this season, I’d love to see it.

That is one of seven away wins already registered, and with the average for a play-off qualifier in this league 9.3 we’re already a chunk of the way there. At this point of the season it’s tempting to look at the teams outside the play-off places that are in form (Forest, Boro, Sheff Utd, Luton) and think they’re all going to gatecrash the top six, reeling the early pacesetters in as they tire. Maybe they all will, 18 games left leaves 54 theoretical points to play for, but remember lots of the teams will be playing each other so there’s not 54 points for everybody — just as one or both QPR and Boro will drop points tonight, so too will Blackburn or Forest who meet at Ewood, Preston and Huddersfield who are playing at Deepdale. Sheff Utd are feared because they’ve got the most games to play, still have 12 home games to fit in and not only have Barnsley, Reading, Cardiff and Hull to come at Bramall Lane, but also every other one of the top eight bar Huddersfield. But, for every one of those lists, there’s a Bournemouth, who finish the season West Brom A, Sheff Utd A, Boro H, Coventry A, Fulham H, Blackburn A, Millwall H.

There’s other maths on our side too. Taking the Championship over the last 20 seasons, the average number of points required for second is 87.55, and the lowest number has been 79 which has occurred twice. The average number of points required for a play-off spot has been 77.75 and the lowest was 68. The average number of points required for sixth place was 72.15. QPR already have 51, which means they need 12 wins from 18 games to make the average for second (Rangers have won 11 of their last 18) and could make 79 winning half their remaining games. They make the play-off average winning eight of 18 and make the sixth-spot average winning seven of 18 — we can achieve the average number of points required for sixth by beating Barnsley, Hull, Blackpool, Peterborough, Cardiff, Derby and Millwall and losing to everybody else. To make the play-off average of 77.75 we now need to average 1.5 points a game (twelfth-placed form, currently Coventry’s average), and to make the sixth-place average of 72.15 we need to average just 1.16 a game (nineteenth placed form, currently Hull’s average). Over the season we’re currently averaging 1.8 points a game. We could suffer a significant drop in form from where we’ve been all season, and still make the high, low and median points total historically required to make the top six. Last time we made, and won, the play-offs, in 2013/14, we won seven of our last 20 games, losing eight — that from a starting point of 16 wins, compared to the 15 we have now.

You can never guarantee, particularly in the Championship, but this should be a belter (nil nil coming up). Two positive, innovative, forward thinking managers, who like the ball on the floor, and their teams to attack. They’ll match up with back threes and wing backs, they’ll play to win, and both sets of players come into the game full of confidence and with almost fully fit squads. It’s the kind of game we longed to be involved with through those long years of cleaning house in sixteenth, and it’s live, tonight, at Loftus Road. All roads lead to W12, you’d be a fool to miss it.

Links >>> A 5-0 out of nothing — History >>> The Wilder effect — Interview >>> Whitestone in charge — Referee >>> Middlesbrough Official Website >>> Teeside Gazette — Local Paper >>> FMTTM — Message Board >>> One Boro — Forum >>> Bonkers for Boro — Blog >>> Boropolis — Podcast

Below the fold

Team News: With Seny Dieng now on the plane home, and Sam McCallum coming through a 2-0 win for the U23s against Cardiff yesterday, QPR should have a fully fit squad for the first time this season come Saturday. For now expect David Marshall to continue in goal this evening, with Sam Field, Chris Willock and Yoann Barbet all returning from their weekend rest at Peterborough. If the team isn’t Marshall; Adomah, Dickie, Dunne, Barbet, Wallace; Field, Johansen, Chair; Willock, Dykes I’ll be very surprised. Jude The Cat has been placed in a safe house while Kurt Zouma is still at large.

Sammy Ameobi and Darnell Fisher are out for the season for Boro, and they’re joined on the absentee list by Marc Bola who is still a month away from fitness after picking up an injury in training in December. January arrival Riley McGree came down with plague while away on international duty with Australia last week, delaying his return flight, but he is breathing easy, back in the country and was in the travelling party that came south yesterday. Joe Lumley makes his first return to Loftus Road since leaving last summer. Boro came through 120 minutes and a penalty shoot out at Manchester United in the FA Cup at the weekend, but have had an extra recovery day on QPR who lost at Peterborough on Saturday.

Elsewhere: A pretty run-of-the-mill, stodgy night of action in the Mercantile Credit Trophy last night. Aleksander Mitrovic moved to 30 goals for the season as Tarquin and Rupert won the culture war with Wawll 3-0 at Craven Cottage. Wayne Rooney’s Derby County moved to within four points of Reading with a comfortable 3-1 win at home to Hull — the Royals go to Bristol City tonight needing a result. This could get very funny, very quickly. Less amusing for Barnsley though, now firmly bottom of the table after no wins in 15 and six straight defeats following a 2-1 loss at Luton last night. Not sure who they’ve got next. Swanselona were reasonably awful (where was that last week, knobheads) in a 3-0 loss at Stoke. Coventry and Blackpool drew 1-1.

Much more to get your teeth into tonight as eight of the teams with play-off hopes play each other. While QPR are hosting Middlesbrough there’s a similar clash between Blackburn and Nottingham Florist at Ewood, while West Brom start life with Steve Bruce at one of his many former clubs Sheffield Red Stripe. Preston are flying under new manager Ryan Lowe, and can close the gap on the bottom end of the play-off picture still further with a home win against sixth-placed Huddersfield at Deepdale in the live Sky game. Bournemouth, who’s deadline day trolley dahs was brilliantly described by James Evans on the QPR Podcast as “like somebody who went last minute Christmas shopping for somebody they don’t know very well”, hope to bounce back from a weekend humiliation by Boreham Wood at home to Birmingham. Cardiff v Peterborough is a wet weekend in Skegness.

Referee: Dean Whitestone makes a quick return to Loftus Road after doing our FA Cup tie with Rotherham. He hasn’t had Middlesbrough since a home defeat by Blackburn last season where Dael Fry somehow wasn’t awarded a penalty despite having his eye taken out by a high boot. Details.

Form

QPR: Rangers have now managed to lose twice at lowly Peterborough this season, in league and cup, but between those two shambles is a 17-match run that features just two defeats (Stoke and Bournemouth at home) and eight victories. Rangers haven’t conceded a goal in their last three league games at Loftus Road, and the 4-0 win against Reading here last time out was the biggest margin of victory so far and the first time we’ve scored more than three in a game. Rangers have won five and drawn one of their last six league games to move into fourth in the Championship, and could go second with a win tonight and negative results for Blackburn and Bournemouth. Yoann Barbet was rested for the cup defeat against Peterborough at the weekend but this week brings up the two-year anniversary of the last time he missed a league match — a 2-0 loss at Huddersfield Town, 89 consecutive starts ago. QPR are unbeaten in five games against Boro since Mark Warburton took over.

Boro: Middlesbrough won six of their first 19 games in the Championship this season. They come into this one on a run of seven wins and a draw in nine league games, and eight wins from 11 overall — two of the other three are draws, including Friday night’s penalty shoot-out upset at Man Utd. Chris Wilder’s side have conceded four goals in those nine league matches, keeping five clean sheets. Boro have taken 23 points of 33 available since Chris Wilder was appointed. Their away record overall is 4-4-5 but of their last six road trips in league and cup they have lost only once, 1-0 at Blackburn, with three wins and a draw. The recent 3-2 cup success at League Two Mansfield is the only time this season Boro have scored more than two goals in a game. Andraz Sporar is top scorer here with seven, followed by Matt Crooks on six. In recent times, QPR and Middlesbrough has often been a meeting that favours the away team — QPR have won their last three trips to the Riverside, including this season’s 3-2 back on August, while Boro have only lost one of their last five visits to W12, winning two.

Prediction: We’re indebted to The Art of Football for once again agreeing to sponsor our Prediction League and provide prizes. You can get involved by lodging your prediction here or sample the merch from our sponsor’s QPR collection here. Last year’s champion Mick_S says…

“Clearly a tough one for both sides and one I’m a bit nervous about. Both sides in great league form and it should be a cracker. I believe we are at full strength, don’t know about them. It’s going to be close, so I’m going to cling on to a very strong second half and a very hard fought 2-1. Dykes to score our first. I think this going to be a belter. If we nick and win this one, it’s definitely on.”

Mick’s Prediction: QPR 2-1 Boro. Scorer — Chris Willock

LFW’s Prediction: QPR 1-1 Boro. Scorer — Chris Willock

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TacticalR added 16:49 - Feb 9 Thanks for your preview. That's formidable record that Wilder has - at the beginning and now. I don't know if it's a good omen, but you said in the match preview before we played Sheffield United in October 2017: 'Since taking over at Bramall Lane at the start of last season Chris Wilder has won 40 and drawn ten of his 60 matches in charge – only Antonio Conte and Mauricio Pochettino have a better record in this country over the same period of time', and we managed to win that one. QPR and Middlesbrough are top of the form table, so this is really a 'top of the form table' clash rather than a top of the table clash. To get anything out of this game we really need that stickability that we have shown in a lot of games this season, because that's a quality Middlesbrough are showing by winning matches late. In theory it should be a good game as both sides want to play football, but as we know it doesn't always work out like that.

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