Ahead of tonight’s visit from chronically out of form Luton (oh God), we look back on the New Year resolutions we came up with a year ago and update them for QPR’s class of 2025.

QPR (6-11-8 WDWLDW 16th) v Luton (7-4-14 WLWLLL 20th)

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The ongoing problem of 48 match previews a season not writing themselves leads us on from the standard ‘year in review’ prior to the Watford win on New Year’s Day, to the first write up of 2025 and, inevitably, resolutions.

For this I thought it might be fun to go back to the one of these we did last year, for an FA Cup Third Round tie at home to Bournemouth, and see what we’d come up with and how many QPR had stuck to. That turned out to be ‘fun’ like arriving at an England game to find you’re sitting between Astrid Wett and that bastard band. Fun like dipping your ball bag into a wheat thresher while watching the 1986 League Cup final back on tape. The farthest thing from fun. It read like my suicide note.

If you want to know how starkly different the mood is now, with QPR very cautiously staging a recovery from a terrible start to their season, compared to then, how about this line: “Here he comes look, happy Clive, nicking lines from The Office and The Thick Of It to describe just how abysmally Jimmy Dunne is playing.” One year on Jimmy Dunne now one of the form players in the Championship, with fans sweating over his contract as he enters the final six months of a deal in the form of his life.

I guess my first resolution to take from this is that things are never quite as bad as they feel or seem at the time.

To read that Bournemouth preview you’d think QPR were never going to win a game again. There were indeed defeats to come - in that game and then again against Watford the match after. Things did turn though. QPR won ten and lost only four of their final 19 games to stay up really in some style. That got us all optimistic for the 2024/25 campaign ahead and when that started with one win in 16 games it felt like the sky was falling once more. Back in the death spiral of feeling like Rangers may never beat anybody ever again. If you can’t beat Plymouth, Portsmouth or Hull at home, who are you going to beat?

You couldn’t move through October and November for doom-laden podcasts and think pieces on just how badly QPR had fucked their season and how vanishingly unlikely they were to get out of this mess. I tried my best. I remembered Jim Frayling saying in our August podcast the first few months would likely be horrible and we’d have to put our “big boy pants on” and deal with that. I kept repeating the lines – that with this profile of signing it was always going to take a long time to work if indeed it does work, and that the bar for success (midtable finish, half the signings work, one of the signings goes onto be a big sale) remained low and achievable – but by the time we got to Cardiff I’d given up completely to be honest. Lo, once again, QPR did get a win. Undeserved, by accident almost, but a win. Then another win. Slowly but surely we’ve clawed our way back to being competitive.

It's difficult when you’re living it, when you’re doing every game, when you’re writing about it, when you produce podcasts or whatever. Every win feels euphoric, every defeat cataclysmic. One thing to perhaps get better at in 2025 is not treating every bad run like the imminent demise of the club. The normal match going fans have been absolutely brilliant - refusing to turn on the team and being notably supportive of manager Marti Cifuentes even when 12 games without a win. It’s likely that public support kept the Spaniard in his job. Let’s be a bit more like that online as well. I’m talking to myself there as much as anybody else.

To counter that, things are rarely as good as they seem at the time either.

The childish “#bring”, “Marti’s cooking” stuff on social media through the summer transfer window has always been fucking tiresome, however much you temper it by telling yourself it is literally children doing it. I think we were all guilty of getting carried away with how well we thought this season might go, though. The way QPR played through the back half of the last campaign, particularly the West Brom, Leeds and Leicester games, was at least something tangible to back that up with. However, of the ten signings we made, I’d be amazed if any QPR fan had actually seen them play a dozen times between them. Out came the HMS Piss The League memes regardless. We got excited because making signings is exciting, not because we knew any of them were any good.

Not getting carried away by a few results, or a few new players, would be a good one for everybody to aim for. It’ll lessen the disappointment, and the reaction to that disappointment, if things don’t go as well as we hoped. More importantly it will give the new players greater time and space to bed in and get up to speed if there is less expectation placed on them by us. Look at Jonathan Varane now compared to his outing at Sheff Utd in August. These things can take time. Building them up to be the new Yaya Toure before you’ve even seen them play doesn’t help.

Communication is always a big one for me because in my line of work I see companies, individuals, organisations and so on who communicate well, and those who don’t, and the benefits and problems that brings for them.

QPR started the season deliberately and aggressively going out of their way to tell us as little as possible. About contracts, about injuries, about even whether we’d signed players – Morrison and Santos were announced long after they were in the building, Dembele and Saito’s arrival pieces were so mealy mouthed we still don’t know to this day whether the Japanese winger is our player or not. Marti Cifuentes was kept away from the fans forum and interviews. Deals were stored up to use as Easter Eggs at that forum, where the vast majority of questions asked were pre-submitted and vetted.

The result of that, as I told Christian Nourry on more than one occasion it would be, was contempt and suspicion from the fanbase the moment the results turned ropey – which, this being QPR, they were always going to at some stage. Putting a support base through what this one has been through over the last three years – torture based largely on recruitment and retainment decisions made on our behalf by the people running our club – and then turning round to them and saying “we’re going to tell you even less about those decisions moving forwards” is utterly risible anyway. If you then go one win in 16 you can expect people to get very aggy. And they did. As they had every right to.

Just lately this has improved and a big resolution for 2025 would be to continue that.

Christian Nourry’s Christmas update, having not said anything for weeks while we were losing, did come across a little bit as “let me tell you where I got all my great ideas” now the team has picked up a few wins. Quick name drop of Anderlecht in there, nice. Again, let’s not get carried away. This is a fragile recovery. But it’s good that he’s speaking to us. The more communication, in whatever form, the better. The club’s initial coms strategy was flawed and made their lives far more difficult than it needed to be.

Starting to give proper injury updates seems to be tacit acknowledgement of that and is actually a really good example. Not telling us anything about the injured players only served to heighten suspicion, chat about why our head of performance is based in another country, and repeatedly inflict disappointment on people week after week. Fans would come to the games expecting Jake Clarke-Salter to play, when he was never going to. Huge great groans would rattle round the Crown & Sceptre every Saturday at 2pm (or, more likely, 11.30am). By being open and honest with people about the situation you not only manage expectations, but it’s also brought the whole place back together a bit more as people recognise we’re up against it and want to support rather than criticise. It feels much more like we’re in it together. Whatever competitive advantage we thought we were gaining by pretending to the Championship Jack Colback was nearly fit when he wasn’t has been lost, but it isn’t having a noticeably negative affect on the pitch – QPR are one defeat in ten after one win in 16 doing it the other way.

I’m hoping this is a sign of a move in a different direction coms wise through 2025. Just be open and honest with people. They’ll buy into you so much more. It will afford you more time and space to do your job.

I’d be interested to know what learnings and resolutions they’ve made around the recruitment of players after last summer. Shopping for value in European backwaters has worked well for other clubs in our situation. Only signing players under 25 (bar Nardi) to try and create much-needed resale value for the club is exactly the right thing to do. But did we go too far? Was it too ambitious to think we could do all ten of our signings like that and it work out well in the notoriously awkward Championship? Do they wish they’d done the odd Isaac Hayden into the bargain after all, just to provide a steadying influence and street smarts? I don’t know either way, I’m asking rather than hinting, but I’m very interested in the answer because we’ve another summer coming up where there’s potentially a lot of experience and important first team players that could go out of the building – Cook, Colback, Dunne etc. Have they had their fingers burned, and are maybe minded to renew contracts they otherwise wouldn’t? Or are they emboldened by the winter turn around and it’s going to be another ten analytics boys from the Swiss league? The odd Alan Browne here and there amidst a wider policy of youth, resale and European scouting can be very valuable – just look at Sunderland. My resolution here would be… BALANCE. I wonder what the club’s is?

Of course one new year’s resolution doesn’t change. It’s how we felt last year, it’s how we felt the year before that, and the year before that. It’s how we’ve always finished this column. It’s what, if you nailed me to the wall and forced me to choose, I think I’d like for QPR more than anything. More than any of what’s gone before in this piece, what I said this time last year, or have said/written in any of the other intervening rants and rambles.

New year’s resolution number one of one should always be… I think it would be nice if we could keep the ball for more than two touches from our own throw ins.

Links >>> Even Parker scored – History >>> Rocky run – Oppo Profile >>> Davies in charge – Referee >>> Luton Town official website >>> Hatters News — Blog >>> Luton Outlaws — Message Board >>> Supporters Trust >>> Oak Road Hatter —Blog

Below the fold

Team News: Zan Celar (hamstring) and Karamoko Dembele (knee) are the long term absentees while Steve Cook (foot) and Liam Morrison (“muscle injury”) are medium term. Elsewhere, though, bodies coming back. Jake Clarke-Salter and Jack Colback both stepped up their returns with minutes against Watford. Clarke-Salter will surely be in line for a start here. Former Peterborough star boy Ronnie Edwards has arrived on loan from Southampton on loan to cover the centre back issues and is eligible for a debut tonight. If Ilias Chair plays tonight he will be making his 250th QPR appearance, the most since Matthew Rose and before him Kevin Gallen.

Many of Luton’s recent problems have been linked to an extensive injury list which includes key men Alfie Doughty, Reece Burke and, of course, Tom Lockyer. Joseph Johnson and Liam Walsh were both suspended for the New Year’s Day defeat to Norwich but return here. Shandon Baptiste is out with a calf injury. Striker Jacob Brown made a comeback off the bench against Norwich and may be in line for more minutes here. New arrivals Christ Makosso and Lamine Fanne await international clearance.

Elsewhere: The positives from QPR’s Saturday off were obvious – basically one half of the division drew with the other half, so no ground was gained on us or lost on anybody else, and nobody below Rangers in the table won. The caution is that of the games I saw yesterday, everybody looked absolutely knackered after another ridiculous Christmas schedule so while we’ll go into tomorrow as favourites against the ailing Hatters you do just worry about what sort of physical state we’re in at this point. Perhaps a rare example of a Sky move doing us a favour with the two extra days.

Let’s work from the bottom up. Wayne Rooney’s Plymouth going back to their original branding of Plymouth Argyle moved the needle only to the extent of a clean sheet and hard fought point on the road – still that first away win eludes them. They got a 0-0 at Stoke, not exactly enjoying a great deal of new manager bounce at the third time of asking this season and possibly about to lose star striker Tom Cannon to Sheffield Red Stripe. It’s a bore draw that leaves Plymouth three adrift at the bottom and Stoke just four points above the drop zone.

Cardiff remain second bottom despite a creditable 1-1 away at erratic Middlesbrough. Hull are still in the drop zone though having trailed league leaders Red Bull Leeds 3-1 late at home they’ll be pleased with their Ilan Meslier-assisted 3-3 draw. It leaves the Tigers level on points with fourth bottom Pompey who lost the Sunday afternoon match at Sunderland – what a bloody away trip for them to have in the snow, by the way.

It's surprise packages Luton and Stoke next on the table then in 18th we have Derby who have lost three straight over the festive period and were beaten 1-0 at Bristol City. Oxford’s miraculous start to life under Gary Rowett threatened to continue when they took the lead for a fourth game in a row at Preston Knob End but that, too, finished level. Frank Lampard’s Coventry are just above Rangers in 15th after leading into stoppage time at Norwich only to contrive a 2-1 loss.

At the top end Leeds’ slip at Hull allowed Burnley to close the gap with a Lancashire derby win at Blackburn, while Sheffield Red Stripe are tucked behind in third after inflicting a third straight defeat on Watford this week.

Swanselona’s 1-1 at home to West Brom and Sheff Wed’s 2-2 against Millwall in which Wednesday hit the woodwork on three separate occasions round out this round of fixtures. The Championship now goes on hiatus until after next week’s FA Cup third round.

Referee Championship regular Andy Davies has only sent off one player in more than two years of refereeing. Luton have a formidable 13-3-3 winning record with this official. Details.

Form

QPR: Rangers have successfully recovered from the Boxing Day debacle at Swansea with four points from two games, and it could so easily have been a full six with Norwich equalising in the last minute. Marti Cifuentes side have now only lost one of ten matches, having started the season with one win in 16 – that at Luton in the first meeting. The R’s have also spectacularly turned round their home form, from a club record worst start to a league season (nine without win, 11 in all comps) to winning four in a row in W12 for the first time since 2017. If they make it five here it’ll be the first time they’ve done that since the 2013/14 promotion campaign when Harry Redknapp’s (Steve McClaren’s) QPR beat Middlesbrough, Barnsley, derby, Charlton and Bournemouth through the autumn.

The Watford victory was only the second time this season Rangers have scored more than two goals in a game, but those occasions (against the Hornets and Norwich) have come in the last four home games. Jimmy Dunne has scored three goals in seven games – all at home, all of which QPR have gone on to win. Rangers have never lost any of the ten games in which Jimmy Dunne has scored, drawing once and winning nine. No player in the division has won as many headers as Dunne’s 118.

This is the third meeting of the season between these sides and QPR won the previous two. At Loftus Road in the League Cup Hervertton Santos scored his only goal for the club so far in a 1-1 draw before man of the match Joe Walsh starred in a shoot-out victory. Later that week, at Kenilworth Road in the league, Michi Frey and Nicolas Madsen were on target in a 2-1 win for Marti Cifuentes’s side. It leaves the overall record at 43-30-33 in QPR’s favour. Luton did win the last league meeting here, 3-0 in December 2022 as the brief Neil Critchley reign started to go south, but that was their first win in Shepherd’s Bush since 1984 when they won 3-2 here. There had been 18 meetings on this ground in the interim, with Rangers winning 11 of those including the four immediately prior. Between a 2-1 win at Kenilworth Road in 1988 and a 3-1 home win against Mick Beale’s Rangers in September 2022, Luton only beat QPR once in 26 meetings. They went on to do the double over QPR in that 2022/23 season.

QPR have won just one of their last six home league games played on a Monday (D1 L4), beating Derby County 1-0 in April 2022.

Luton: As a parachute payment team Luton were well fancied to challenge in a division they finished sixth and third in prior to being promoted. It hasn’t materialised. They come into this game with a 7-4-14 record and sitting 20th in the table, two points north of the drop zone.

Nobody in the league has lost as many as Luton’s 14 games. Four of those defeats have come in the last five games, including three consecutive losses leading into this one. Edwards’ team have lost seven and won only three of their last 11 games. The problems are particularly acute on the road – 21 of their last 24 points have come at home. Luton have lost nine consecutive away games, conceding 25 goals in the process including five at Boro, four at Norwich and three at Plymouth, Coventry and Leeds. They have scored only once in the last three away games. Only Plymouth (11) have lost more away games than Luton (10). They have only won once away (at Millwall on September 14) with the remaining game a draw (at Portsmouth in August).

The top scorers list here is fairly respectable, certainly compared to QPR whose joint second top scorer is own goals with three. Carlton Morris has seven and Elijah Adebayo five in the league. But goals are really flowing in at the other end. The Hatters conceded 89 league goals during 2024, the most in English football. Only Plymouth (53) have conceded more than Luton’s 42 this season. They haven’t kept a clean sheet in nine attempts. They’ve only kept two clean sheets away all season, those in two of their first three aways at Millwall and Pompey. Five clean sheets in 26 league and cup games overall. They’ve conceded three goals or more in a game on six occasions already.

Prediction: In our Prediction League for 2024/25 we’ll once again be handing out prizes for being top at Christmas and overall winner from The Art of Football - sample the merch from our sponsor’s newly extended QPR collection here. For the first time last year we had joint winners so this season you’ll be hearing from one or both WestonsuperR and SimplyNico in the match previews.

Nico’s Prediction: “For tonight’s entertainment, we have Luton. At the start of the season, I thought Luton would be challenging for the play-offs given the way they had played in the Premier League under Rob Edwards. Instead, they are going for ten away losses on the spin and are circling the drain to League 1(which possibly goes to show how good Ross Barkley was for them last season). In spite of this, Luton are still a physical proposition with some good forwards - this may well be the night to introduce Ronnie Edwards alongside JCS. Whilst not playing great football, we are finding a way to beat teams and in recent games have stopped being so goal shy. I see this being a continuation of the recent form for both the Hoops and Luton.”

Weston’s Call “I’ve been shocked and a bit confused by Luton’s poor form this season, their squad is largely the one that performed admirably in the Premier League. Even considering Luton’s awful away form I’m expecting a close match. Hard to overlook our four wins in a row at home, combined with a new found belief and confidence, so I am saying both teams to score in a physical encounter but QPR to edge it.”

Nico’s Prediction: QPR 2-0 Luton. Scorer – Michi Frey

WestonSuperR’s Prediction: QPR 2-1 Luton. Scorer – Michi Frey

LFW’s Prediction: QPR 1-1 Luton. Scorer – Ilias Chair

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Pictures - Reuters Connect

Rsole added 13:36 - Jan 6 Thanks Clive, some serious contrasts to a year ago. If Illy scores and takes his shirt off in celebration, like Jimmy, do you reckon his sports ‘bra’ is a replica green bikini top ?
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062259 added 16:16 - Jan 6 Barometer
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TacticalR added 19:46 - Jan 6 Thanks for your preview. I defer to you on how the club should handle communications, and how they have created their own problems. Perhaps I don't expect much as I remember the pre-internet days when lack of communication was the norm. Wild mood swings are to be expected from football fans. Unfortunately this outlook seems to affect boardrooms too as we regularly read articles saying such-and-such a manager has two games to save his job. I think it was reasonable to expect that we would be off to a flying start once Cifuentes had a pre-season after a bit of miracle-working last season. However this season it's not just integrating new players that's been a problem, it's that key defensive players have been injured, and during that long winless spell we didn't have a reliable goal-scorer either. Not to mention Chair's absence. I would like to think we can take advantage of Luton's problems, but it never quite seems to work out like that. Also, as SimplyNico points out, they do have some good forwards.

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Devonwhitewhitewhite added 16:30 - Jan 7 Agree entirely Clive with trying to keep some perspective on extremes. Don't know whether you have read the wonderful "The Numbers Game" by Chris Anderson and David Sally which although it is 12 years old makes some timeless mathematical/statistical points. In the section starting on page 282 Regicide: Dethroning Villas Boas, it makes a strong case that Regression to Mean is an inescapable force and that sacking managers is largely pointless. And this is what QPR have done this season (and last), Regressed to Mean. We're about where we should be now in the league given our budget etc. the terrible stretch corrected by the excellent one. If we'd sacked Marti (as Stoke, Watford etc would have done) we'd probably be in the same place and Nourry would be trumpeting his genius. What he should be congratulating himself for is NOT sacking Marti, and fair play to him for that.

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