QPR, bottom of the Championship, face a key home game against fellow early strugglers Coventry tonight, desperately needing a win to boost a fatigued support and calm a rising panic.

QPR (1-4-5 LDLLLL 24th) v Coventry (2-2-6 LLLWLL 21st)

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Goodness, we’re at “the dreaded vote of confidence” point already. Marti Cifuentes left to talk pre-game about whether he retains the full support of the QPR hierarchy, with just one win from ten and no home success in seven league or cup attempts.

Given the club has spent the last few months stressing Cifuentes is merely part of group think, with a “game model” handed down from on high to run through all the teams, and that the signings are once again data and analytics driven rather than manager led, with head of recruitment Andy Belk “who has perhaps more responsibility here than you would see in other football clubs at this level” (fan forum minutes)… I’m surprised we’re already at the point where we’re having to come out and talk about whether the Spaniard’s job is under threat. After all, it’s a collaborative effort this. He’s just the head coach. Taking them at their word it would be perverse to suddenly start pointing fingers in his direction.

It's also amazing we’re at this stage just ten league games in. Not only because this was always going to take a long time to work, if indeed it does ever work, given the profile of the signings, but and everybody basically acknowledged that begin with. But also, because if you compare the feeling around the place, the demeanour and standing of the manager, versus our last game against Coventry in May – just 11 league fixtures ago – it’s staggering really how quickly it’s threatening to unravel.

Having literally lost sleep over QPR’s apparent impending doom last season, I’m strangely numb to what’s going on here so far in 2024/25 even as we sink to the bottom of the Championship table. I’m not at the game tonight, Saffa is on match report duty, and whereas I’d usually be getting itchy feet about that and being aggy with people, I’m strangely unbothered. It’s uncomfortable, I haven’t felt like this since Redknapp was in charge.

I had a long train journey to France on Sunday to think it all through after Portsmouth and came up with a few possibilities as to why that is.

The first is that we’re only ten games in, we’ve brought in a load of young players from dark corners of Europe, it was always going to take a long time for everybody to settle in and get up to speed and we’re only ten Championship games in. Rangers have been unlucky not to post more points in several of those and while performances are clearly now dramatically tracking in the wrong direction it’s also unfortunate that we’ve missed players like Clarke-Salter, Colback and Chair down the spine of the team. Now whether I actually believe that or have simply repeated it and written it so much I’ve convinced myself it’s true (or perhaps I just need something to cling to) will become clear in time. To lose against Portsmouth the way we did, Ilias Chair more culpable than most in the shambles that occurred after taking the lead, certainly starts to erode that faith. But it is early, still.

Or perhaps they have finally broken me. I was genuinely convinced by the end of last season that with this manager we were really onto something, and if we could just recover from the dire position we’d put ourselves in before he got here and stay up we’d be off to the races with him in charge the following season. Go down because of what went before, lose this guy, another sliding doors moment in our recent history. Stay up, more FFP headroom, team moulded in his image, no two wins from the first 16 games weighing us down, this could be special. I was, by my standards, hopelessly optimistic. To come back from the summer and it turn out we’re shit again after all is pretty heartbreaking. It is, as we say, the hope that kills.

There’s probably an element of fatigue here as well. Some of the stats floating around, particularly relating to QPR’s home form, are biblical. No wins in seven at Loftus Road to start this season, no wins in nine on our own patch to start last, seven wins from the last 32 on this ground, 13 from the last 55. It grinds you down. Staring over at that School End watching one set of away fans after another have a lovely time at our expense, listening to their mocking words and chants echo down South Africa Road as I head the other way. Over and over again, game after game. Can you be arsed anymore? I’m tired of it.

I’m also tired of the weirdness. You’ve got another situation on Saturday where the manager is bringing an 18-year-old boy on for his first ever senior football game, in the centre of midfield, in a home game you’re losing and the crowd is turning. Kieran Morgan did fine, but he was barely involved in our pre-season at all, while Alfie Tuck (who was, and looked good) is now playing Conference South football at Enfield. Alfie Lloyd, who started well, scored at Sheff Wed, started the game at Luton, was an unused sub at Derby and not even on the bench at the weekend. Rayan Kolli, who played the whole pre-season, and started the opening game, now can’t even make the bench. We’re told there’s nothing more to that than there being better players ahead of him and competition for places, but that’s just not true is it? You go from starting the opening day to not even appearing in the first team squad photograph. It’s becoming exhausting this stuff, bullshit and obfuscation leading to rumour and counter rumour.

Needless to say, as both regular readers are well aware by now, it’s pretty clear I’ve been left cold by my dealings with the club over the last few months. So, perhaps it’s that. This secret squirrel, “competitive advantage”, telling the peasants as little as they possibly can as late as they possibly can strategy was always going to cause them problems and I told them as much, several times. That it’s happened quite as quickly as this has surprised even me, but it was always going to happen at some stage. No wonder Marti’s had a vote of confidence, apparently we only renewed his contract a fortnight ago. Sack him now and saving up those contract announcements (indeterminant length) to use as Easter Eggs at the fans “forum” would look really daft wouldn’t it?

Like I say, a bit cold, a bit numb.

And what they usually do at this point, almost without fail, almost like it’s their religion, is win. When I finally think I’m just about done, when I finally think 30 years of solid addition has been broken, when I do genuinely think I can’t take any more of it and I should really do something else with my life, they win. They win dramatically, with a brilliant goal, or a late penalty, when you least expect. The dopamine rushes, the endorphins flow, and I can’t wait to get back from the South of France at the end of this week to go to Burnley. They sense you’re out, and they drag you back in again. They’ve been doing it to me my entire adult life.

God let’s hope so, because we bloody need it.

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Below the fold

Team News: QPR’s powderpuff central midfield gets a boost tonight as Jonathan Varane returns from the three match ban he picked up for a red card at Blackburn, but Jack Colback remains a way off a return yet following his knee surgery. Liam Morrison is also sidelined medium term, but after the Morgan Fox shambles at the weekend there should at least be the return of Jake Clarke-Salter from his usual calf problem to look forward to this evening.

Jake Bidwell will be denied a return to Loftus Road by a knee ligament strain, while Jamie Allen is also side-lined medium term by knee problems. Goalkeeper Ben Wilson was sidelined at the weekend and replaced by Marti Cifuentes’ former Hammarby keeper Oliver Dovin – that will continue this evening. Winger Raphael hasn’t featured since pre-season.

Elsewhere: QPR gifting Portsmouth their first win of the season on Saturday saw the R’s slump to the bottom of the Championship, with managerless Cardiff City also making the most of a first half Plymouth red card (must be nice) to beat Wayne Rooney’s side 5-0. Pompey and the Bluebirds meet tonight in South Wales as the bottom six in the league weirdly all play each other in this midweek round. Next two up the ladder are Millwall and Plymouth who meet in London on Wednesday night.

Leeds have a chance to go top for the first time this evening, albeit temporarily, if they can beat Watford who were left reeling by a 3-0 defeat in the derby at Luton on Saturday. Still, I bet Watford admin were pleased with their snidey ‘taking in the sights’ TikTok video before kick off. Why do clubs do that to themselves? We’ll see if Luton can follow that up against current league leaders Sunderland tomorrow night, while second placed Burnley continue to Scott Parker their way through the whole division with an away trip to Hull.

The top six is currently made up by Sheffield Red Stripe, West Brom and Blackburn, with the Blades away at Middlesbrough this round and the latter two meeting each other at The Hawthorns.

Four other games conclude this midweek round with newly promoted sides Oxford and Derby facing off, Preston hosting Norwich, Sheff Wed at home to Swanselona and Stoke playing Bristol City.

Referee: Young Sheffield referee James Bell, in his third season on the EFL list, is in charge tonight. He’s sent four players off and booked a further 21 players in his last three games. Details.

Form

QPR: Things are starting to look grim for QPR who’ve now lost four games in a row, are winless in seven (six league), and have sunk to the bottom of the Championship. Things are particularly dire at Loftus Road where they’ve lost three of the last four and are yet to win in seven attempts (five league) this season. Cifuentes’ team is yet to keep a clean sheet in 13 attempts.

There’s a real sense of fatigue around the support base, with these numbers just stacking up on top of a dreadful few years – particularly at Loftus Road. Rangers took nine attempts to win a home game last season and are already seven deep into this. The R’s won only seven of their league and cup home games in 23/24 meaning it’s now seven wins from 32 since last August, and if you take the previous year into account it’s 13 from 55. Having equalled the club record for home defeats in a season under Steve McClaren in 18/19 (11) the R’s then beat that in 22/23 (12).

Portsmouth at the weekend was only the third time the R’s have scored the first goal in a game this season, though like the other two (West Brom, Plymouth) the lead did not last long – 11 minutes on the opening day, 25 against the Pilgrims, and then nine against Pompey. Luton’s the only other game Rangers have been in front in so far, meaning they’ve led for just 76 of their 900 regulation minutes in the Championship. It’s the lowest total in the league, and second lowest in the EFL behind Burton.

#QPR have registered just 1 win from their opening 10 games of a second tier season for only the second time in their history (also 2007-08). pic.twitter.com/po6FdkMG0C— Jack Supple (@JTSupple) October 19, 2024

Coventry: Just as QPR await a first home league win, Cov are yet to win away. Their 1-0 loss at Preston at the weekend followed a 3-0 at Leeds, 1-1 draws at Watford and Bristol City, and another 1-0 setback on day one at Stoke. City have lost six and won only one of their last eight league and cup games and arrive at Loftus Road after consecutive defeats and five losses in their last six games. They’ve only scored two goals away from home so far.

Like QPR, this isn’t really that unexpected or new for Mark Robins’ team. Last season they made it all the way to an FA Cup semi-final while maintaining a play-off push, and in 22/23 only a penalty shoot-out defeat to Luton at Wembley stopped them making a first premier League return after nearly a quarter of a century away. Both those seasons, however, started very slowly. Last term they won one of their first eight games, before winning 3-1 at QPR in game nine, and three of their first 16. In 22/23 they won only one of their first nine before starting a three-game winning sequence in game ten. This, of course, is game 11 – so they’re due. Cov are on a double away week, usually a sure sign of a defeat in the second game, and haven't won a midweek away game in the league since February 2022 at Bristol City - though they did of course win away at Boro in the play-offs.

Few sides took advantage of QPR’s two-year meltdown quite as well as Coventry. They won their two visits here in 22/23 and 23/24, scoring three goals on each occasion, althojgh rangers did snap a three-game losing sequence against this opposition when they won the end-of-season dead rubber 2-1 in the Midlands in May. QPR had been unbeaten in five meetings at Loftus Road prior to that, but lost the three immediately before.

Prediction: There’s still time to enter our Prediction League for 2024/25, where we’ll once again be handing out prizes for being top at Christmas and overall winner from The Art of Football - sample the merch from our sponsor’s newly extended QPR collection here. For the first time last year we had joint winners so this season you’ll be hearing from one or both WestonsuperR and SimplyNico in the match previews, and the former is already top of the league again this time around.

Nico’s Prediction: “It’s currently going from bad to worse. The statistics as regards the effect of Clarke-Salter and Colback on this team, and the league table, do not lie (a point that should not be lost on a data-based “sports-minded chief executive” like Christian Nourry). For the Coventry game, it seems unrealistic to expect Marti to put JCS straight back and expect him to play a full 90 minutes without the risk of him blowing up again – gaps, errors or both will therefore appear at the back. In midfield, whilst we will likely have Varane back (a mixed blessing on his recent form) in place of Colback, we are not in a good place, we have gaps all over the place, no tackling and no ball to Frey. I expect Coventry, even in their woeful form, to be too good for us."

Weston’s Call “Another really poor performance on Saturday, which after a two-week break to prepare was a huge worry. I’ve seen nothing from us recently to be positive about us winning, weak defensively and lack of options up top, so going with an other depressing loss.”

Nico’s Prediction: QPR 0-2 Coventry. No scorer.

WestonSuperR’s Prediction: QPR 0-2 Coventry. No scorer.

LFW’s Prediction: QPR 1-0 Coventry. Scorer – Ilias Chair

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horshamHoop added 13:22 - Oct 22 Very interesting read as always and totally agree with the weird bit. The disappearance of Kolli and both Alfie's especially. The coach needs to coach and have access to all players he wants. I only go to a handful of games a season and this was my first of this season which is why I do not comment much as obviously you see so much more live than on TV. I did check and the last two games I saw last season had the same nucleus of players as Saturday. For me, Nardi is an upgrade on the Bosnian as is Frey for Dyckes and Dembele is easily on a par with Willock on last season's form. Which leaves Hayden who is abi miss. I would "rest" both Madsen and Varane for the moment and find a way to play without them. Also Clarke Salter for Fox which we all know matters. The other major noticeable factor for me was a lack of confidence particularly in defence. Confidence is of course so important and part of that is trusting the players around you. All is not lost for sure, particularly as is so early in the season.

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