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It's Not Doom And Gloom According To The Bookies
Monday, 21st Jul 2014 09:50

If you read some web sites you would think that Saints are about to embark on a dramatic plunge down the leagues as the sqaud falls apart, the bookmakers don't think so though.

Some Saints fans it has to be said are drama queens, the mere hint of a headline in the media about a player about to be sold brings out a rash of supporters claiming that the club is in meltdown.

One such comment I read on the Daily Echo website saw the poster claiming that the alleged interest in Lovren from Liverpool was conclusive proof of what had been suspected all along, that the club was being stripped of its assets ahead of a sale, what had conveniently been ignored was the fact that so far Saints have pumped £20 million back from the transfer fees received so far into buying two new players, surely not the actions of someone asset stripping.

Add to that the fact if you really want to sell football club it needs to be in the Premier League, completely asset stripping would make that difficult and the sell on value of the club would plummet dramatically.

Of course we are suffering what many clubs in our position do, that is the so called big boys being interested in our players after a good season, that sadly is a symptom of success, we have to accept that and move forward, as have been saying all summer its not about what happens its about what you do next.

A good barometer of where others see you is the bookmakers, they don't often catch a cold when it comes to football betting on relegation or winning the Premiership.

Shortly after Mauricio Pochettino left I looked at Saints odds to go down, we were far from favourites for the drop, indeed 12 clubs were seen as more likely to go down.

Of course these were the early prices and there was a lot of time to go before the bookies can form a real view, but with just over three weeks to go before the big kick off it is starting to get a little more accurate.

Strangely though despite losing three players the bookies position hasn't changed much on our chances of being relegated, yes we have dropped a couple of places and are now 11th favourite for the drop, but we are seen as being more likely to be in the top half of the Premier than the bottom half and a long long way off being relegated.

Of course this is football and anything can happen, but perhaps looking at these odds brings home a dose of reality, compare the squad Saints had say two years ago for our first season back in the top flight and we are now far better prepared to tackle a Premier League season in almost every way be it in the quality of our players, the quality of the manager and the depth of the squad.

So there is really no need for supporters to have a feeling of impending doom, we are a club that has lost a few players and probably will lose one or two more, but we have the money to replace them as well as some promising youngsters that much nearer a first team spot than last season, we won't be challenging for the Champions League places but to be blunt we were never going to anyway, it takes more than a few hollow words to build a football club to that level in a short space of time.

What we can look forward to is a season where we should cement our place in the Premier League and perhaps look to win something in the domestic cups and in doing so earn a place in Europe.

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BlackRod added 23:36 - Jul 21
Interesting that the bookies put Liverpool at 10/1, out from 5/1 at the end of last season. As Nick says they rarely catch a cold. There is a fair chance that Liverpool will emulate Spurs from last season. Burnley at 4/7 are rock solid for relegation.

An interesting punt would be on Lambert to miss his next penalty kick, especially if it's against us on the opening weekend. If Hooiveld is back in favour and lines up for us with Rickie on the field for them this will be an unmissable bet.
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montecristo added 08:31 - Jul 22
REEDREEDOREEDZ I repeat intangible assets do not form part of the capital value even though they are shown in the balance sheet and are not therefore a determining factor in assessing the value of a club. At best they are assessed separately, and because of the difficulties in doing that, the only way Liebherr would have of maximizing her return would be to sell them separately.
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brady100 added 10:03 - Jul 22
However you dress it up, these are the facts.
- We have/ are about to lose 5/6 of our key first team players. Half of our starting 11!!
- Our optimism and ambitions have taken a body blow; it's a glass celling for us as a club.
- We cannot keep hold of our best players and build on our great academy structure.
- The players we can realistically bring in will have to be a gamble and not proven e.g. Tadic & Pelle.
- We will not be spending the 60+ million received from players sales.
- No matter what garbage the board feed the fans, our expectations, aspirations and vision has been significantly reigned in. Rightly or wrongly the board are content with PL status, a smaller squad and bringing through young players to sell at significant profit.
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REEDYREEDOREEDZ added 10:28 - Jul 22
montecristo: All of the players who have left so far have done so because they provoked the move. The players wanted to leave so the club sold them. It’s not as if the players are being offered around and auctioned off.
As for the value of players when buying/selling a club, yes they don't form part of the capital value but they clearly have a value and that would be open for negotiation between the buying and selling parties, and would form part of the overall price paid. Yes Katherina would obtain the best return by selling these assets individually for inflated prices and realising their value with cold hard cash. BUT this is not a fire sale. Katherina and the board are not misleading us. They want what's best for the club. It’s not their fault that the champions league pipe dream has gone, along with our best players with it, who have had their heads turned by massive clubs.
Saints will reinvest the money back into the club but they will do it sensibly. I don’t think they will spend £20m on a single player but overall we will spend a total of £40m to £60m this summer. It will happen. We've already spent over £20m. Including a large fee for a 29 year old who is likely to only go down in value. Do you think this would happen if she's only interested in taking out as much cash as she can? She's practically a billionaire. Why would she systematically go about destroying her late father's work? I think you've got this situation completely wrong. There’s very little a club can do to keep a player who is 100% set on leaving.
The fact is that Cortese and Pochettino where massively influential on our best players and now they have gone the club has changed along with our ambitions which, if anything, have now become more realistic. Talk of Europe was fantasy with the thin squad we had but most of the players believed in it.
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brady100 added 11:49 - Jul 22
Last season we played like a team who believed in the European fantasy. We approached every game believing we could win it, with a very talented young team. This is where we will see the difference this season. We will return to scrapping for draws, not competing away and take our position firmly amongst the also ran’s such as West Ham, Stoke and Hull. Last season we where slightly behind the top 7 in terms of consistency/ quality/ depth but equally some way ahead of the teams below us taking into account quality and style of play. This coming season I feel Newcastle have nudged ahead of us, Everton have stretched the gap and the likes of Hull and West Ham will be on par given the investments they have made.
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montecristo added 01:25 - Jul 25
Not being asset stripped eh... well guess what I dont want to piss on your parade but it strikes me that there is some thing pretty wrong at Southampton. Players who were an essential part of the fab team last season dont seem to want to play for the club any more. Three have gone Lovren has said he wants to go, Rodrigues pretty much like wise, and Schneiderlin would sooner be off as well. And now wait for it Fonte doesnt want to sign a contract extension and may leave for Cardiff as a result. Sounds to me that they have been seriously upset, the talk of broken promises, whatever they were, Cortese s departure, followed by Poch have rocked the camp like a tsunami. Yes we sold players in the past, on a one off basis, but this situation is totally different. Dont blame me or thousands of others, if I chose not to believe anything that Les Reed or Krueger have had to say. Please tell me that this is not a nightmare.
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