When QPR met MK Dons for the first time 12 months ago they were still managed by Neil Warnock. Two managers later the teams meet for a third time, with MK on the rise and QPR apparently in decline.

QPR v MK Dons

FA Cup >>> Saturday January 26, 2013 >>> Kick Off 3pm >>> Loftus Road , London , W12

The way the culture of sport, and particularly the media that covers it, has developed in the UK over the last 20 years means that every single game seems like a matter of life and death. Mitchell and Webb sent it up far better than I ever could but I do recall our midweek game with Sunderland last season (a game that took place in December) being described by many as a "must win" affair.

A must win? In December? That sounded a little far fectched – and indeed that's exactly what it turned out to be because QPR lost in heartbreaking circumstances to a last minute header having clawed the whole thing back to 2-2 having trailed 2-0 after an hour. Such a devastating set back in a supposed 'must win' affair should surely have relegated Rangers on the spot. Well, no, they recovered sufficiently to still be in the Premier League this season, although given the performance level so far this season maybe the post traumatic stress disorder brought on by that Wes Brown goal took a while to really hit home. The poor loves.

In a season of 38 league games, or 46 in the division below, and the odd cup encounter as well actual 'must win' games are rare. Individual matches merely make up runs of form that influence that final position and it's only when you get to May that you look back at things like last season's amazing come back against Liverpool and think "that was a really important moment."

I wonder, over the coming years, just how much importance last season's third round game at MK Dons, the first ever meeting between the two clubs, will assume in the minds of QPR fans. What if we'd played somebody else? What if we'd won? What if we'd played better than we did? What if Ale Faurlin's knee hadn't fallen apart? What if only the usual harcore QPR away support had gone thereby lessening the effect of the travelling masses singing "Premier League, you're having a laugh" at their own struggling players? How different would QPR be as a club today if that game had gone differently, or not taken place at all?

Sadly it didn't go well. QPR were really, genuinely poor that day and unable to string two passes together. It was amazing that it took MK Dons as long to score as it did, and even more remarkable that late in the game and after being reduced to ten men Rangers somehow plundered an equaliser through Heidar Helguson.

But the result seemed to mask a number of issues. Neil Warnock had been having problems controlling a previously close-knit dressing room into which Joey Barton, Shaun Wright-Phillips and other troublesome individuals had been parachuted with dire consequences. In that MK Dons game Warnock rocked back and forth in his dugout seat with pent up frustration, unable to bellow at his underperforming team in his trademark manner because of an operation on his mouth earlier in the week. Only when the enormous travelling support QPR took that day burst into the derisory chant at their own players did he spring up, wounded and angry, and make two substitutions immediately – a rash act of desperation that a quarter of an hour later reduced the team to ten men when Ale Faurlin went up for a header, fell on a straight leg and ruptured his knee ligaments. He has only been anything like the same player he was before that moment in flashes since – and at the time he was starting to attract interest from bigger clubs. Warnock was sacked a day later and suddenly QPR were at a low ebb, without the inspirational manager who'd done so much for them over the previous 18 months, with Joey Barton dancing on Warnock's grave all over the social media networks, and the midfielder who could actually play the game ruled out for the rest of the season.

As individual games go, that was a bad one.

By the time MK came to Loftus Road for a replay which, again, they should have won but contrived to concede to a rare QPR attack rather than score a few of their own during their waves of pressure, Mark Hughes was in charge. QPR will pay for the decisions he made during his 11 month reign for years to come. Some still say that it was the right decision to replace Warnock, because Hughes kept QPR up last season when Warnock would not have done. Quite apart from that being an opinion dressed up as a fact, even if Warnock had relegated QPR last season it would have done far less damage to the club long term than Hughes has done keeping it up by the skin of its teeth and then lumbering it with the playing squad we see before us today.

And so we wait with bated breath and fingers in front of eyes to see how important this weekend's latest FA Cup tie with MK Dons turns out to be. The cup draw seems absolutely determined to pair us with MK – the club we could have become had Pete Winkelman got his original way – whenever possible, and they reached this round by beating AFC Wimbledon in a controversial game that the competition almost produced a couple of years back but for a replay defeat for the non-league side. A third meeting in 12 months comes after another managerial change at Loftus Road , but at a time when the team actually seems to be getting things together a bit.

Come the end of the season will we look back on a glorious survival against the odds in the league, and an extended run in the FA Cup, that was all sparked by a six match unbeaten run from the turn of the year including a home win against MK Dons? The performance up at West Brom in the third round replay suggest that the players are relishing the opportunity to play matches without the weight of the rest of the Premier League on their shoulders, and the embarrassing stigma of the won/drawn/lost column getting them down. Rangers passed the ball well at West Brom , looked dangerous in attack, and deserved to win. If they do the same against MK the run will be extended, the confidence will grow, the players will get more accustomed to the systems Harry Redknapp is putting in place. This could be another step on the road to salvation.

Or in May will this be the game that we ruefully look at as the moment the final ray of hope disappeared from view. A promising five match unbeaten run, ended unceremoniously by a team from two divisions below, winning on our own ground, backed by 3,000 noisy travelling supporters – it would be enough to sap the confidence and self belief of a Blue Peter presenter. Should Rangers again lose one of their outstanding talents to a serious injury in this fixture, given the threadbare nature of the squad – or rather the dearth of quality, committed players available – it could be a hammer blow.

Christ it all suddenly feels rather important doesn't it? Just as well I'll be 35,000 feet over the Atlantic when it kicks off.

Links >>> Opposition Focus >>> Podcast >>> Referee >>> Betting

History

Not enough meetings between these two sides to justify a separate history column this week, but here's a quick recap of what happened when they met for the first time last season…

MK Dons 1 QPR 1, Saturday January 7, 2012, FA Cup Third Round

QPR had a lucky escape at Stadium:MK in the third round of the FA Cup last season. Poor throughout, the R's finally fell behind when substitute Heidar Helguson misdirected a headed clearance from a corner and Dean Bowditch sent a low daisy cutter through a crowded area and into the far corner of the net. In front of a travelling support of 6,000 strong the Premier League R's were facing an exit at the hands of their League One opposition and when star midfielder Ale Faurlin ruptured his knee ligaments, devastating his team mates and leaving them to play the remainder of the game with ten men after all three subs had been made, the game appeared to be up. But, keen to atone for his earlier error, Helguson used his renowned persistence and work rate to worry a mistake out of goalkeeper David Martin, regain his feet after an initial fall, and roll the ball into an empty net from 20 yards right at the death to force a replay. The comeback wasn't enough to save Neil Warnock who was fired by Tony Fernandes the day after the game.

MK Dons: Martin 6, Smith 7, Williams 6, MacKenzie 6 (Doumbe 46, 6), Lewington 8, Chadwick 7, Gleeson 6, Potter 6, Bowditch 7, Ibehre 7, Daniel Powell 5

Subs Not Used: McLoughlin, Flanagan, O'Shea, Lobjoit, Alli, Collins

Goals: Bowditch 65 (unassisted)

QPR: Cerny 6, Young 6, Gabbidon 5, Hall 5, Hill 5, Mackie 4, Derry 4 (Buzsaky 77, 5), Faurlin 5, Smith 6, Macheda 6 (Bothroyd 71, 5), Campbell 4 (Helguson 61, 6)

Subs Not Used: Murphy, Connolly, Andrade, Orr

Goals: Helguson 89 (unassisted)

QPR 1 MK Dons 0, Tuesday January 17, 2012, FA Cup Third Round Replay

By the time the teams met again at Loftus Road, Mark Hughes was the new QPR manager. Rangers escaped, just as they did from the first game, thanks to MK’s poor finishing and their own good fortune. Charlie McDonald, who as a youngster at Charlton once knocked QPR out of the FA Cup with a late goal at The Valley, missed enough chances to wonder how he didn’t end the night with a hat trick, never mind just the match winner. That was nothing compared to Jabo Ibehre though – the former Leyton Orient oaf conjured a miss of the season contender on the hour when a cross from Smith found him unmarked a yard from the target but he fluffed his lines. The natives were restless, and they became more so when the new manager decided to withdraw Akos Buzsaky, who was enjoying his song over by the R Block ready to take a corner when he was replaced by Heidar Helguson. That was the first, but certainly not the last, time Mark Hughes heard “you don’t know what you’re doing” from the home crowd. He had the last laugh on that occasion though because from the set piece Wright-Phillips crossed for Danny Gabbidon to head the only goal of the game, and of his brief spell with QPR. The R’s had made it through an FA Cup tie for the first time in 11 years, but they’d certainly made heavy weather of it across the two games.

QPR: Kenny 6, Young 6, Ferdinand 7, Gabbidon 6, Hill 7, Mackie 6, Buzsaky 7 (Helguson 72, 6), Derry 5, Wright-Phillips 5, Macheda 5 (Smith 62, 6), Bothroyd 6 (Orr 86, -)

Subs Not Used: Cerny, Hall, Campbell, Ephraim

Booked: Young (foul)

Goals: Gabbidon 73 (assisted Wright-Phillips)

Milton Keynes Dons: Martin 7, Smith 8, Doumbe 7, S Williams 7, Lewington 7, Gleeson 7, Potter 6, Chadwick 6 (Daniel Powell 73, 6), Bowditch 6 (O'Shea 83, -), MacDonald 5, Ibehre 7

Subs Not Used: McLoughlin, Flanagan, Baldock, McNamee, G Williams

Booked: Ibehre (foul)

This Saturday

Team News: Loic Remy admitted in interview during the week that he is like a Formula One car – any slight problem and it’s straight to the mechanics – and he’s taken no time at all to prove that to fans of his new club. One appearance, one goal, and now one hamstring injury that leaves him doubtful for this weekend’s game. Whether he would have started anyway is up for debate – Jay Bothroyd’s showing at West Brom probably lines him up for an extended run out here – but it’s another warning light switched on by our new record signing. Esteban Granero and Armand Traore are both fit again and likely to play. Bobby Zamora is back in training and Redknapp is keen to get him back – no indication as to whether his come back may feature a spell from the bench here.

MK Dons’ striker Izale McLeod is cup tied having appeared for Portsmouth in an earlier round, and Luke Chadwick is out with a knee injury – that’s good news for QPR as Chadwick has been key whenever I’ve seen the Dons this season and McLeod has been brought in to solve their problem of having to create a dozen chances to score one goal. Their current leading scorer, and hero of the first meeting between these sides, Dean Bowditch is a doubt but they have Sheff Wed’s Chris Lines on loan and he is eligible for a debut.

Elsewhere: The problem of having the FA Cup television rights with ITV, who don't get any other domestic football at all, and ESPN, who are limited to Saturday night fixtures, shines through once again in round four. Wigan going to Bournemouth and Fulham to Blackpool were far more intriguing replays than Man Utd v West Ham and Arsenal v Swansea but the TV companies chose the games that guaranteed the big audience, rather than the ones the neutral may have found more intriguing as football spectacles and they've done so once again this weekend. Brighton v Arsenal is potentially the tie of the round and hasn't been touched, while Man Utd v Fulham looks like an enormous, dull, forgone conclusion and yet that gets the 5.30pm slot on Saturday night. No amount of "Berbatov returning to Old Trafford" spin makes that look like anything other than a giant sleeping pill I'm afraid.

It also seems strange, given that the police moved it to Friday night anyway, that neither channel saw fit to show Millwall v Aston Villa given the growing story of Paul Lambert's struggles at Villa Park , the hostility of the venue and the strong potential for an upset there. The Sunday picks were no-brainers really – Chelsea at Brentford and Liverpool at Oldham are proper FA Cup ties while Tottenham's visit to Leeds has real potential.

There's little else to get excited about among the Saturday 3pm kick offs truth be told. Macclesfield have Premier League Wigan at the Moss Rose after knocking out Championship side Cardiff in round three, but Aldershot and Luton have meagre rewards for their progress this far with trips to Middlesbrough and Norwich respectively.

Referee: As if the déjà vu of playing MK Dons again a year later in the same competition isn't enough, the PGMO has appointed Mike Dean to referee a fourth round match at Loftus Road for the second season running as well. That's perhaps not the most tactful appointment they could have made, given that the R's were eliminated at this stage last season largely because Dean bought Daniel Sturridge's theatrical collapse under minimal contact from Clint Hill and awarded a penalty that decided the game in Chelsea 's favour. He's been back in charge of the R's several times since, with mixed outcomes, and you can view his full QPR case file by clicking here.

Form

QPR: Last season’s win against MK Dons was a landmark event for QPR. It represented their first win an FA Cup tie of any sort for 11 years which was the worst record of any team – league and semi-pro – in the country. That run included three first round defeats during the R’s second division days to Grimsby, Swansea and, infamously, Vauxhall Motors. This weekend they’re aiming to go one better and reach the fifth round for the first time in 16 years. The fourth round victory that took them there in 1997 was a 3-2 hoe success against Barnsley which was sealed by the greatest goal ever scored in football anywhere in the world in the history of the game by Trevor Sinclair. In that fifth round they met, wouldn’t you know it, the Wimbledon team that was killed off to form MK Dons a decade ago. QPR took 12,000 fans to Selhurst Park that day as a First Division club facing a Premier League one but lost 2-1 despite a rare goal from Mark Hateley. Their quest to match the achievement for the first time since this weekend comes amidst a run of five matches undefeated, including a draw and away win against West Brom in round three. Since conceding three goals in the first half to Liverpool at Loftus Road Rangers have played five and a half games and conceded just two goals.

MK Dons: The Dons have already beaten non-league Cambridge City (after a replay), League Two AFC Wimbledon and Championship side Sheffield Wednesday (replay required again) to reach this stage. A run of six wins and a draw from eight league games running into the festive period looked to have set them on course for a tilt at automatic promotion but they had a poor Christmas that featured three defeats from four games and a sackfull of goals conceded – lost 3-2 at Brentford then 4-2 and 3-2 at home to Walsall and Coventry respectively – and have dropped back into the play off mixture as a result. In the league this season they have won four, drawn four and lost four away from home.

Betting: Professional odds compiler Owen Goulding tells LFW…

"A QPR team in the midst of a mini revival host MK Dons in a fourth round tie. An excellent second half performance at The Hawthorns sparked some mumblings on the terrace about a possible extended cup run but they will come up against a stubborn Milton Keynes side, just as they did last year. Rangers were very lucky to get through last season and with their minds on other matters, I think it's going to be a tough match this week too.

"From a betting point of view, I don't like taking a view on cup matches until I see the team sheets - especially here with a weakened side expected to be named by Harry - but there is a price on this game that seems worth investing your money on. The current price on the Asian handicap market for MK Dons plus 0.75 at around evens at Bet365 and Paddy Power looks worth playing. To simplify this, if it's a draw or MK Dons win, your bet wins. If QPR win by a one goal margin you get half your stake refunded. The only way you lose your entire stake is if Rangers win by a two or more goal margin. I think it will be tight and tense which is how cup matches should be. Enjoy the match."

Prediction: Well, you're stuck with me for the prediction again as Nathan and his Prediction League sorts don't have to bother with cup fixtures. I've done well so far, calling the Walsall and West Brom home scores correctly and tipping the R's to go through at The Hawthorns. I'm backing the R's again here too, simply because I'm adamant that we'll get to the semi final this year as I am out of the country that weekend. It's going to be tight and tough though, and if I was betting I'd be tempted by the price on a draw and another replay. But I'll go slightly more confident than that and back the R's for a narrow win, simply because whenever I've seen MK Dons this season they played excellently, dominated, and missed an absolute bucket full of chances. Against a Premier League team, even one as poor as QPR, you need that extra cutting edge – if they find it they could win easily, but like I say I'm sure sod's law will dictate a semi final appearance for the R's this season.

QPR 1 MK Dons 0 Tweet @loftforwords

Pictures – Action Images

Photo: Action Images

ozexile added 02:02 - Jan 26 This has got 0-0 or 1-1 written all over it. Please let's impose ourselves on the game for a change or they will pass it round and through us all afternoon.
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rodneeranger added 07:10 - Jan 26 Sorry, but your comment re 'Joey Barton, Shaun Wright-Phillips and other troublesome individuals' is a little harsh, isn't it? I heard that Shaun is a great person to have in the changing rooms - a joker and, I assume, liked by all.
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JB007007 added 08:49 - Jan 26 This could be a decent game. I think we'll win and progress. Your comment should be an absolute joke about "given the threadbare nature of the squad" We shouldn't be going over old ground but Mr Hughes has a lot to answer for. Its made HR's job far harder in this window.
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isawqpratwcity added 09:51 - Jan 26 Nice preview, Clive. I really appreciate your 'franchise' rants because they are a genuine loathing of the capitalist (not a Marxist post!) forces that shift clubs round the country for bottom line decisions. In Oz, we have the NRL (rugby league) and the AFL (aussie rules) scrapping over uncommitted market segments around the country (subject to a cost-benefit analysis, of course!), parachuting or inventing teams into regions offering the most return. The best way to view the Wimbledon meltdown is to think of it as a film you can watch backwards. The best bit is when we send Vinnie Jones back! As for NW, I was always behind that decision, but never because Hughes kept us up. Our survival last season was entirely due to a perfectly capable squad finding enough cohesion and spirit to do the absolute bare minimum. Hughes just fluked another six months before being deservedly sacked on the basis of being completely incompetent.

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