| Promotion to the Premier League is tough.But is survival effectively impossible? 19:09 - Dec 30 with 3417 views | dmm |
A thought provoking article by the ever excellent Jonathan Wilson https://www.theguardian.com/football/2024/dec/30/jonathan-wilson-newsletter-rele
It's pretty depressing stuff. It's simply getting harder every season to stay up. Would we really want another season in the PL? Last decade's forays up there were tough enough. Another one would be worse. |  | | |  |
| Promotion to the Premier League is tough.But is survival effectively impossible? on 16:15 - Dec 31 with 827 views | hantssi |
| Promotion to the Premier League is tough.But is survival effectively impossible? on 14:23 - Dec 31 by switchingcode |
None although we have plenty out on loan who may make it.We have tended to sign players around 17/18 years of age from other clubs and progresss through our B team.Only got an academy as we have to when we go back to the championship I’m sure we will scrap it. |
Cheers, that was pretty much the point of my first post! |  | | |
| Promotion to the Premier League is tough.But is survival effectively impossible? on 16:24 - Dec 31 with 800 views | GaryBannister86 |
I too would be in no rush to get back to the PL, but presuming we are all of a certain age that is perhaps somewhat selfish of us. A youth full of being one of the better sides in the top flight has satisfied that itch and having no wish to see us being outclassed by clubs like Brentford is an issue too, I suspect.
But my 18 year old son has seen none of that and would love us to be there. I am sure anyone who has never seen us there would love it. Even if just the dreaded one season "tour".
On the plus side, you don't need many points to survive these days. With a plan, and a top manager, there is hope. Problem is, we'd lose first five games, sack Marti and replace him with some drivel.
I do wonder if our owners look at Forest and think let's stuff FFP and cheat like they did, use all our fabulous wealth and buy our way up there and to survival. Cop a 2 point fine and hope to stay up. [Post edited 31 Dec 2024 16:24]
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| Promotion to the Premier League is tough.But is survival effectively impossible? on 16:31 - Dec 31 with 774 views | davman |
| Promotion to the Premier League is tough.But is survival effectively impossible? on 15:36 - Dec 31 by switchingcode |
Agree with you but you say cash rich they all lose money and are trying to be allowed to lose more. |
"Lose" more is an interesting take. If an owner wants to spend their money on their little hobby, is it really "losing" money? Admittedly, borrowing against the clubs assets or increasing the debt the clubs owe is tantamount to "losing", but if the overspend is fully paid for by the owner, who is "losing".
At the moment it is INCREDIBLY hard to see a way out of this mess the PL / Sky has created. The cash disparity in the Prem between the "top" 6 and the rest is bad enough, but it is absolutely nothing compared to the gulf to the Championship. As Clive said, every team coming down will look to have around a £90m advantage on teams who are only allowed to overspend by £13m a season and even with the biggest mismanagement, I find it impossible to see how they will NOT go back up - BIGGER, BETTER SQUADS over a 46 game season when injuries take hold on everyone else.
Yes, Brentford, Brighton, Palace, Bournemouth etc. have been well managed to get where they are, but f-me they have lucked out WHEN this all happened. QPR was exceptionally well managed through the late 70s until the mid 90s, but dropped out at exactly the wrong time.
I cannot see things changing unless the spending rules change, which they won't or the PL supports the EFL, which it won't. The most galling thing for me isn't that Liverpool, Chel***, Man U, Man C, Arsenal, etc. don't care, but that your lot and all other "little clubs" seem to have forgotten where they have come from and won't support the EFL just in case one of the other clubs takes their place. Whilst they have, they'll keep and f**k everyone else... |  |
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| Promotion to the Premier League is tough.But is survival effectively impossible? on 16:56 - Dec 31 with 738 views | themodfather |
What do fans expect? There was a recent vote to revamp things and I think clubs like forest blocked changes so they stay ok! Only way to even it out is every team per league has a budget and that’s it downs it all on new ground , done , buy 20 top players done that’s it but budget would include wages and no off shore stuff . Staying up you need around £200m but no guarantee year before we went up Fulham spent £120m to come straight down ? Dates might be wrong but then you come down and bloody fair play does you lol . | | | |
| Promotion to the Premier League is tough.But is survival effectively impossible? on 17:13 - Dec 31 with 689 views | NewBee |
| Promotion to the Premier League is tough.But is survival effectively impossible? on 14:56 - Dec 31 by davman |
...but (predictably) Ipswich are 18th, Leicester are 19th and Soton are 20th.
Survive the first season you have half a chance especially as the three coming up are likely to be cannon fodder for the cash rich existing members of the cash league.
But we're rapidly approaching the closed shop. Luton didn't spend the cash on their squad, but I am shocked how badly they are doing this season though. Generally, it'll now be the same old faces bouncing up and down... |
Re Luton, I imagine they saw promotion to the PL as an unexpected bonus, and are now using the windfall to help fund their new stadium.
For even if they go down again, the stadium can help secure the club's future over the long term.
P.S. Luton were in the old First Division during its last season and voted for the new PL . Then they got relegated and had to wait 30-odd years to play in it! They were eventually the 51st club to play in the Prem, Brentford having been the 50th. [Post edited 31 Dec 2024 17:16]
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| Promotion to the Premier League is tough.But is survival effectively impossible? on 17:23 - Dec 31 with 675 views | switchingcode |
| Promotion to the Premier League is tough.But is survival effectively impossible? on 16:31 - Dec 31 by davman |
"Lose" more is an interesting take. If an owner wants to spend their money on their little hobby, is it really "losing" money? Admittedly, borrowing against the clubs assets or increasing the debt the clubs owe is tantamount to "losing", but if the overspend is fully paid for by the owner, who is "losing".
At the moment it is INCREDIBLY hard to see a way out of this mess the PL / Sky has created. The cash disparity in the Prem between the "top" 6 and the rest is bad enough, but it is absolutely nothing compared to the gulf to the Championship. As Clive said, every team coming down will look to have around a £90m advantage on teams who are only allowed to overspend by £13m a season and even with the biggest mismanagement, I find it impossible to see how they will NOT go back up - BIGGER, BETTER SQUADS over a 46 game season when injuries take hold on everyone else.
Yes, Brentford, Brighton, Palace, Bournemouth etc. have been well managed to get where they are, but f-me they have lucked out WHEN this all happened. QPR was exceptionally well managed through the late 70s until the mid 90s, but dropped out at exactly the wrong time.
I cannot see things changing unless the spending rules change, which they won't or the PL supports the EFL, which it won't. The most galling thing for me isn't that Liverpool, Chel***, Man U, Man C, Arsenal, etc. don't care, but that your lot and all other "little clubs" seem to have forgotten where they have come from and won't support the EFL just in case one of the other clubs takes their place. Whilst they have, they'll keep and f**k everyone else... |
Don’t get that clubs like Brentford “Lucked out” what do you mean?Think a club of your size that has a much bigger fan base and achieved far more in terms of success in my life time should say if they can do it why can’t we.There was no luck in finding lower league players and developing them and then having the balls to sell them on for big profits almost every season but still progressed.
Matthew Benham hasn’t put any money into the club since 2018 and everything has been financed by sales of players before we got to the PL and then had the influx of around 140 mill per season from tv money which dispite having one of the lowest wage bills in the PL it’s still a frightening 90 mill per season.That still puts a big dent into that income.
I would also add that Brentford voted for more money to go to the EFL one of only 3 other clubs although stand to be corrected.Yes I never forgot where we came from from I’ve watched more shit than you could dream of in the lower leagues for 50 odd years but still look back at those days with so many happy memories. | | | |
| Promotion to the Premier League is tough.But is survival effectively impossible? on 17:32 - Dec 31 with 659 views | NewBee |
@davman
"I cannot see things changing unless the spending rules change, which they won't or the PL supports the EFL, which it won't. The most galling thing for me isn't that Liverpool, Chel***, Man U, Man C, Arsenal, etc. don't care, but that your lot and all other "little clubs" seem to have forgotten where they have come from and won't support the EFL just in case one of the other clubs takes their place. Whilst they have, they'll keep and f**k everyone else... "
How exactly have Bees and the other little 'uns forgotten "where they have come from"? (Genuine question)
Obviously I can't speak for the others, but as regards Bees, owner Matthew Benham is on the record as acknowledging that it would only take one bad/unlucky season to see them relegated again - he certainly doesn't discount that possibility, even if our three seasons to date have been safe enough.
In which case, it would surely be in his own interests to keep the EFL strong?
Besides which, it would take a 2/3rds majority (i.e. 14 clubs) to vote through any major change to the financial settlement between the PL and EFL, meaning that so long as the Big Six stick together (they will), then they only need to persuade a Villa or a Newcastle to join them (they will, too) and there's nothing the other "little clubs" can do. | | | |
| Promotion to the Premier League is tough.But is survival effectively impossible? on 18:19 - Dec 31 with 612 views | terryb |
Of course there is a big gap between The Premier & The Championship, with many promoted clubs only lasting the one season.
However, this also applies to many a team that is promoted from League One. It wouldn't be over surprising if the three relegated this season were all promoted in the last two seasons. Barnsley & Rotherham look as though they may have problems in continuing to yo-yo though. | | | |
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| Promotion to the Premier League is tough.But is survival effectively impossible? on 15:45 - Jan 2 with 423 views | NewBee |
The excellent Swiss Ramble did a very detailed financial analysis of the costs/benefits/drawbacks etc of promotion, not just from Champ to Prem, but also from Lge One to Champ and Lge Two to Lge One.
Unless you're a subscriber, you can't normally access it, but I think (hope) this link will work:
https://substack.com/home/post/p-153493646 | | | |
| Promotion to the Premier League is tough.But is survival effectively impossible? on 16:08 - Jan 2 with 377 views | ManinBlack |
| Promotion to the Premier League is tough.But is survival effectively impossible? on 19:48 - Dec 30 by Wilkinswatercarrier |
Good article, but, a bit like the discussion about reducing games due to injuries, a well run club can thrive.
With regards to the bottom three today, I would say they were all poor teams. Ipswich though have had back to back promotions so they were always going to find it hard.
If you're well run then there is no reason you can't compete, we did it for 30 odd years. |
You are right we did used to be able to compete but the Premiership forming and the ever growing financial gap between clubs gets wider all the time. The problem for us smaller clubs is the top 4 in the Premiership accumulating even more wealth from being in the Champions League often the same clubs. It is hard to see us ever get near the top 6 again with the wealth gap. Forest are doing brilliantly but there is no way they will finish above Liverpool this season who have benefitted from being in the Champions league more often than not. |  | | |
| Promotion to the Premier League is tough.But is survival effectively impossible? on 16:19 - Jan 2 with 353 views | Wilkinswatercarrier |
| Promotion to the Premier League is tough.But is survival effectively impossible? on 16:08 - Jan 2 by ManinBlack |
You are right we did used to be able to compete but the Premiership forming and the ever growing financial gap between clubs gets wider all the time. The problem for us smaller clubs is the top 4 in the Premiership accumulating even more wealth from being in the Champions League often the same clubs. It is hard to see us ever get near the top 6 again with the wealth gap. Forest are doing brilliantly but there is no way they will finish above Liverpool this season who have benefitted from being in the Champions league more often than not. |
Brentford, Fulham, Bournemouth, Brighton, Palace all competitive, yet I wouldn't say any of them are bigger than us.
Agree we wouldn't get near the top 4/6, but there is nothing stopping us from being like we were in the late 80s early 90s. A decent mid table team and good cup runs which I'm pretty sure most would be absolutely delighted with.
Just need to be well run. And I am more optimistic now than 2/3 years ago. | | | |
| Promotion to the Premier League is tough.But is survival effectively impossible? on 16:39 - Jan 2 with 332 views | saxbend |
I am going to suggest again, even though it's not a very popular idea (though no-one so far wants to express why) that parachute payments must be bought with a points deduction. Say -1 point for every £10m received, with relegated clubs choosing any amount in parachute between 0 and the maximum allowed. In fact the ratio should be match the penalties for P&S breaches that other clubs might pay. That allows clubs to protect themselves from being destroyed by their premier league wage bill upon relegation, without giving them a ridiculous (and in light of P&S rules unfair) advantage over the rest of the Championship. |  | | |
| Promotion to the Premier League is tough.But is survival effectively impossible? on 17:05 - Jan 2 with 297 views | davman |
| Promotion to the Premier League is tough.But is survival effectively impossible? on 17:23 - Dec 31 by switchingcode |
Don’t get that clubs like Brentford “Lucked out” what do you mean?Think a club of your size that has a much bigger fan base and achieved far more in terms of success in my life time should say if they can do it why can’t we.There was no luck in finding lower league players and developing them and then having the balls to sell them on for big profits almost every season but still progressed.
Matthew Benham hasn’t put any money into the club since 2018 and everything has been financed by sales of players before we got to the PL and then had the influx of around 140 mill per season from tv money which dispite having one of the lowest wage bills in the PL it’s still a frightening 90 mill per season.That still puts a big dent into that income.
I would also add that Brentford voted for more money to go to the EFL one of only 3 other clubs although stand to be corrected.Yes I never forgot where we came from from I’ve watched more shit than you could dream of in the lower leagues for 50 odd years but still look back at those days with so many happy memories. |
You lucked out in the timing of your rise.
Never before has there been such a financial gulf between the top flight and the second tier. As an example QPR got it right in the 70s, through the 80s and into the first few seasons of the Cash League. When we did not bounce back at the first time of asking (thanks, Mr Houston and Mr Rioch), we can clearly see how we "missed the boat".
The fact that there have been 51 teams in the Prem says it all - there HAS been a turnover of clubs, but the majority happened in the first 10-20 years. Aside from Lootown, yourselves, Brighton and Bournemouth, when was the last "new" team to get promotion? Blackpool, Bradford? (Just checked - Cardiff 2013-4),
The cash differential means that you are going to have to work REALLY, REALLY hard not to get promoted back. With player sales, etc. you'll be operating with a c. £100m budget advantage in a league where a club can only lose £39m over three seasons.
The absolute definition of "LUCKED OUT" as far as I can see...
...and (seriously) good luck to you - we were utterly magnificent in my formative years between 1974 and 1995 and it was great. | |
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| Promotion to the Premier League is tough.But is survival effectively impossible? on 17:11 - Jan 2 with 279 views | davman |
| Promotion to the Premier League is tough.But is survival effectively impossible? on 17:32 - Dec 31 by NewBee |
@davman
"I cannot see things changing unless the spending rules change, which they won't or the PL supports the EFL, which it won't. The most galling thing for me isn't that Liverpool, Chel***, Man U, Man C, Arsenal, etc. don't care, but that your lot and all other "little clubs" seem to have forgotten where they have come from and won't support the EFL just in case one of the other clubs takes their place. Whilst they have, they'll keep and f**k everyone else... "
How exactly have Bees and the other little 'uns forgotten "where they have come from"? (Genuine question)
Obviously I can't speak for the others, but as regards Bees, owner Matthew Benham is on the record as acknowledging that it would only take one bad/unlucky season to see them relegated again - he certainly doesn't discount that possibility, even if our three seasons to date have been safe enough.
In which case, it would surely be in his own interests to keep the EFL strong?
Besides which, it would take a 2/3rds majority (i.e. 14 clubs) to vote through any major change to the financial settlement between the PL and EFL, meaning that so long as the Big Six stick together (they will), then they only need to persuade a Villa or a Newcastle to join them (they will, too) and there's nothing the other "little clubs" can do. |
Turkeys voting for Xmas.
Crumbs from the big table to make those in the cash club to feel better about where they have come from.
Couldn't give two shites about whether the pyramid survives or clubs go to the wall chasing the pathetic dream.
The cash gulf is killing competition and the PL clubs just want to sustain that - why would they behave any differently? We wouldn't. But it does not change the fact that it is killing the pyramid slowly, but surely season after season. It WILL soon be a closed shop of the same three going up and coming down.
Yes, it will take one bad season to get you relegated, but you'll have to work incredibly hard not to get promoted straight back up even if you had Tony Fernandes and his clown crew in charge...
And there is no way on earth Benham or any of the Prem Owners wants to keep the EFL "strong" - do not be so ridiculous. Why should they worry about anyone else? It shouldn't be up to the clubs, of course, but the FA is just their puppet now; we all know who runs the game... | |
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| Promotion to the Premier League is tough.But is survival effectively impossible? on 23:31 - Jan 2 with 126 views | NewBee |
@Davman:
"And there is no way on earth Benham... ... wants to keep the EFL 'strong' - do not be so ridiculous. Why should [he] worry about anyone else?"
So long as Bees are in the Prem, it shouldn't really worry him whether the EFL is 'strong' or not.
But since he readily admits that the club could go down anytime, it is in his interest to have a (financially) strong EFL to drop into, hence his voting for more money for the EFL, as 'Switching Code' pointed out.
Moreover, despite not being super rich himself, at least by PL standards, he also disagrees with the Profit & Sustainability Rules in the PL, whereby clubs may only spend a proportion of what they earn i.e. wealthy owners (like QPR's?) cannot put their own money in, over and above footballing revenues. (This entrenches the position of the Big Six etc, who generate far more than the smaller clubs.)
And as for parachute payments, of course that gives relegated clubs a huge advantage, but even there it might be overstated. For as a (paywalled) article in 'The Athletic' pointed out, up to the end of season 2022/23:
"... of the 81 teams relegated from domestic football’s elite division since 1995-96, only 22 (around 27 per cent) bounced straight back. On average, less than one relegated team a season returns to the top flight one year later."
Of course some more will have bounced back up in their second or third season i.e. while still in recept of parachute payments. But even there the payments are reduced should a team have lasted only a single season in the PL.
All of which means that while the present financial set-up is just one more obstacle for clubs to overcome, albeit a very high one, ultimately good management counts for more than finances.
Which is why eg Brentford, Brighton, Fulham & Bournemouth are all ahead of moneybags Man U in the league table. | | | |
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