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Ok, analytics deep dive 2/2 for your international break, Andrew Scherer crunching the numbers for us here. Some fascinating, damning, stuff in here, and a bleak Wycombe Wanderers punchline at the end.
Now I am become QPR, destroyer of optimists – Analysis17th Oct 2023 14:45 In the second of our analytics deep dives for this international break, Andrew Scherer digs into the numbers for a data-based look at how QPR have performed so far this season, and it’s every bit as bleak as you would imagine.4
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Now I am become QPR, destroyer of optimists – Analysis on 15:01 - Oct 17 with 8269 views
What a brilliant piece - everything you read there correlates to what you see on the pitch, and, more worryingly, correlates to how Ainsworth teams usually operate.
Bare bones.
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Now I am become QPR, destroyer of optimists – Analysis on 16:37 - Oct 17 with 7958 views
Now I am become QPR, destroyer of optimists – Analysis on 16:37 - Oct 17 by Wilkinswatercarrier
Great bit of work, but my God that is grim reading. What has GA done to Chair? How the board cannot pull the trigger is beyond me.
Agreed, Superb piece - thanks Andrew!
If is true that the board are keeping GA on as they cannot afford the payoff it seems a false economy , as if we keep on like this Chair’s value is going to fall through the floor and cost way more in lost potential transfer fees.
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Now I am become QPR, destroyer of optimists – Analysis on 17:23 - Oct 17 with 7801 views
Now I am become QPR, destroyer of optimists – Analysis on 16:25 - Oct 17 by Antti_Heinola
What a brilliant piece - everything you read there correlates to what you see on the pitch, and, more worryingly, correlates to how Ainsworth teams usually operate.
Sadly, it was obvious from the beginning how Ainsworth would set QPR up if you had the misfortune of having watched Wycombe play. Yet we had a few posters on here insisting, to great lengths, it would be different. As the saying goes, a leopard does not change its spots.
I can only assume it was based on nothing more than a blind love of Ainsworth as a player, because as a manager, he is so far out of his depth at this level. It was obvious last season. Should have been moved on in the summer. He lacks so many qualities, it’s hard to know where to start.
You only have to watch it at every home game to see how poor we are. Personally think the whole set up is sub-standard and has been since Warburton and Eustace left. I am actually dreading the Leicester game as the likelihood is we will get ripped apart. Find myself leaving the ground earlier and earlier each home game and that is not something I have done in my 50 years of supporting QPR.
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Now I am become QPR, destroyer of optimists – Analysis on 19:38 - Oct 17 with 7527 views
Fascinating and insightful analysis, thank you, but at the same time, a blue and white hooped horror story. Having read that late at night, I'm expecting some unsettling dreams.
Grim times.
"Things had started becoming increasingly desperate at Loftus Road but QPR have been handed a massive lifeline and the place has absolutely erupted. it's carnage. It's bedlam. It's 1-1."
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Now I am become QPR, destroyer of optimists – Analysis on 23:20 - Oct 17 with 7180 views
Finally had the chance to read this. Really interesting. Thanks, Andrew.
What this says to me, is that Ainsworth (assuming he isn’t sacked) has to revert to playing a 352 shape, whereby we have 3 centre halves, 3 centre midfielders and Chair central off a striker. Ultimately it means only one of Dykes, Armstrong, and Willock play (if you assume Chair is a lock in).
The reason I say that is:
- the numbers seem to suggest we defend out box well, so play go that strength with 3 centre halves. - we let teams play too many progressive passes through us and dominate the park, so you have to play 3 central midfielders in there to stem the tide and compete. No surprise our best two results came with Field, Colback, and Dozzell all starting. It’s since Dykes returned and Ainsworth has tried to shoehorn him and Armstrong in at the expense of one of the 3 central midfielders, that we’ve got a lot worse and started conceding a lot more. I know you can say, well, Colback and Field have been suspended. True for some games. But stick with a shape that works and pick the best player available for each position not the best 11 bodies in a shape that doesn’t work - with 3 central midfielders and Chair ahead in a 10 role off the centre forward, you set up so he can receive more passes to feet into the final third to then create, rather than being the one playing such passes, as the data suggests.
I can’t think of any formation that addresses the key concerns as well as going to a 352/532, or 3511/5311 if we’re picky. It relies a lot of your wing backs, as always with this shape, but Cannon joining the fray and JCS playing LCB in a 3 would, I think, help this enormously.
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Now I am become QPR, destroyer of optimists – Analysis on 08:13 - Oct 18 with 6891 views
Now I am become QPR, destroyer of optimists – Analysis on 08:10 - Oct 18 by Hunterhoop
Finally had the chance to read this. Really interesting. Thanks, Andrew.
What this says to me, is that Ainsworth (assuming he isn’t sacked) has to revert to playing a 352 shape, whereby we have 3 centre halves, 3 centre midfielders and Chair central off a striker. Ultimately it means only one of Dykes, Armstrong, and Willock play (if you assume Chair is a lock in).
The reason I say that is:
- the numbers seem to suggest we defend out box well, so play go that strength with 3 centre halves. - we let teams play too many progressive passes through us and dominate the park, so you have to play 3 central midfielders in there to stem the tide and compete. No surprise our best two results came with Field, Colback, and Dozzell all starting. It’s since Dykes returned and Ainsworth has tried to shoehorn him and Armstrong in at the expense of one of the 3 central midfielders, that we’ve got a lot worse and started conceding a lot more. I know you can say, well, Colback and Field have been suspended. True for some games. But stick with a shape that works and pick the best player available for each position not the best 11 bodies in a shape that doesn’t work - with 3 central midfielders and Chair ahead in a 10 role off the centre forward, you set up so he can receive more passes to feet into the final third to then create, rather than being the one playing such passes, as the data suggests.
I can’t think of any formation that addresses the key concerns as well as going to a 352/532, or 3511/5311 if we’re picky. It relies a lot of your wing backs, as always with this shape, but Cannon joining the fray and JCS playing LCB in a 3 would, I think, help this enormously.
The odd thing is that through all the managers and changes of personnel since Warburton was appointed, we are still a back three team.
Playing a back four just invites chaos and disaster.
Why GA decided to go back to that against Blackburn when it clearly didn't work against Watford - who knows?!
Taken together with Dan Lambert's analysis, this is hugely alarming. Just as the original 'writing on the wall' warned, QPR have been weighed and found wanting.
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Now I am become QPR, destroyer of optimists – Analysis on 10:46 - Oct 18 with 6602 views
Now I am become QPR, destroyer of optimists – Analysis on 09:02 - Oct 18 by hubble
Day 239 in the QPR house. The entire fan base has worked out the tactics to improve the dire team performances, but will Gareth see this?
Just picking a formation won't make a great deal of difference. Yes, that looks like our most hopeful punt at not getting hammered, but there's almost zero creativity or hope of goals in that line up, and whatever the formation, it won't make a blind bit of difference if the players aren't playing to a plan where they all know their jobs and understand the triggers etc etc. At the moment, it's just 11 blokes on a pitch in different orders. Nothing's going to change under this management I'm afraid.
Bare bones.
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Now I am become QPR, destroyer of optimists – Analysis on 11:22 - Oct 18 with 6504 views
What continually jumped out to me was that the back ups aren't good enough (SDM for example), Dozzell is useless, JCS isn't anywhere as near as good as he thinks he is when he finally bothers turning up.
You can criticize GA for a number of things but the lack of any sort of ability on the pitch would completely hamstring any manager.
Sexy Asian dwarves wanted.
1
Now I am become QPR, destroyer of optimists – Analysis on 13:27 - Oct 18 with 6273 views
Fantastic analysis, data really does paint a picture of a football match(s). I'm not surprised at the results of these metrics it's there for all to see but the data really does give another level of insight. I must admit I thought our strikers have been poor at converting chances, the xG has proved me wrong they are not getting fed enough quality chances (although Lyndon still needs to up his game big time IMO). As a stats and R's fan this has really interested me and I hope another one of these can be done again in the season perhaps end of December? I was also interested to see how poor the xG was for long balls. Back in the 1950's when Charles Reep was pioneering football analytics he said exactly the opposite more goals were scored with 4 passes or less hence the hoof ball football advocated by the English FA all the way into the 1980's.
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Now I am become QPR, destroyer of optimists – Analysis on 13:35 - Oct 18 with 6246 views
Now I am become QPR, destroyer of optimists – Analysis on 08:10 - Oct 18 by Hunterhoop
Finally had the chance to read this. Really interesting. Thanks, Andrew.
What this says to me, is that Ainsworth (assuming he isn’t sacked) has to revert to playing a 352 shape, whereby we have 3 centre halves, 3 centre midfielders and Chair central off a striker. Ultimately it means only one of Dykes, Armstrong, and Willock play (if you assume Chair is a lock in).
The reason I say that is:
- the numbers seem to suggest we defend out box well, so play go that strength with 3 centre halves. - we let teams play too many progressive passes through us and dominate the park, so you have to play 3 central midfielders in there to stem the tide and compete. No surprise our best two results came with Field, Colback, and Dozzell all starting. It’s since Dykes returned and Ainsworth has tried to shoehorn him and Armstrong in at the expense of one of the 3 central midfielders, that we’ve got a lot worse and started conceding a lot more. I know you can say, well, Colback and Field have been suspended. True for some games. But stick with a shape that works and pick the best player available for each position not the best 11 bodies in a shape that doesn’t work - with 3 central midfielders and Chair ahead in a 10 role off the centre forward, you set up so he can receive more passes to feet into the final third to then create, rather than being the one playing such passes, as the data suggests.
I can’t think of any formation that addresses the key concerns as well as going to a 352/532, or 3511/5311 if we’re picky. It relies a lot of your wing backs, as always with this shape, but Cannon joining the fray and JCS playing LCB in a 3 would, I think, help this enormously.
Good post. Clive has said for a long time that successive managers going back to Holloway have noticed that our defence isn't great, so have parked an extra one in the midfield in front of it. I do though think a back four could potentially work if its a 4 5 1, either way it's basically about getting loads of bodies behind the ball. I don't think this individual tracking method works at all, much better sit deep and try and break. Even the Leeds game when there were more numbers it's easy to play around. The other thing I don't really get is, did Wycombe really play like this? They weren't that bad were they? Surely they would never have got out of league one, let alone nearly survive in the championship. Our trajectory is just downwards
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Now I am become QPR, destroyer of optimists – Analysis on 13:38 - Oct 18 with 6239 views
Now I am become QPR, destroyer of optimists – Analysis on 13:35 - Oct 18 by plasmahoop
Good post. Clive has said for a long time that successive managers going back to Holloway have noticed that our defence isn't great, so have parked an extra one in the midfield in front of it. I do though think a back four could potentially work if its a 4 5 1, either way it's basically about getting loads of bodies behind the ball. I don't think this individual tracking method works at all, much better sit deep and try and break. Even the Leeds game when there were more numbers it's easy to play around. The other thing I don't really get is, did Wycombe really play like this? They weren't that bad were they? Surely they would never have got out of league one, let alone nearly survive in the championship. Our trajectory is just downwards
And Brian has often said you don't win a lot of games of football by losing the midfield. Combine us in a back four with us losing the midfield and you get... Blackburn H.
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Now I am become QPR, destroyer of optimists – Analysis on 13:55 - Oct 18 with 6183 views
Now I am become QPR, destroyer of optimists – Analysis on 11:25 - Oct 18 by toboboly
Very interesting article.
What continually jumped out to me was that the back ups aren't good enough (SDM for example), Dozzell is useless, JCS isn't anywhere as near as good as he thinks he is when he finally bothers turning up.
You can criticize GA for a number of things but the lack of any sort of ability on the pitch would completely hamstring any manager.
Good post. A concern I have - concern number 4,369 when it comes to Rangers, sigh - is that some fans, and even the players, think that replacing Ainsworth will get us back on track.
It might, potentially, but it won't if our players continue to fail to track runners and block crosses, things which are footballing basics and not complicated to do.
I do wonder if some of our squad is suffering from a superiority complex born of having been top, albeit briefly, a year ago.
I'm totally dreading Saturday, not just our performance and the inevitable result but the understandable meltdown within the fan base.
"Things had started becoming increasingly desperate at Loftus Road but QPR have been handed a massive lifeline and the place has absolutely erupted. it's carnage. It's bedlam. It's 1-1."
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