QPR, seemingly in relegation trouble and without a win in seven league games, travel to Burnley, who seem to be heading straight back to the Premier League with an imperious home record – stop me if you’ve heard this one before.
Sky’s Super Saturday Brunch Spectacular >>> Saturday October 26, 2024 >>> Kick Off 15.00 >>> Weather – Bright and breezy >>> Turf Moor, Burnley, Lancashire
I promise – PROMISE – we’re not going to do Air Crash Investigation again. Yet.
We are, however, going to talk about Rick Stein’s Secret France.
There’s an increasing amount of dialogue and debate around the obviously growing divide between football fans who support their team through the medium of going to the ground to watch it and shout at them, and those who consume the sport almost entirely online through social media and the like. LFW royalty Thom Gibbs has written thoughtfully on this for the Telegraph in the last few weeks. Today, about the seemingly never ending competition to be more angry than the next account online versus the more sanguine attitude of those at the ground, and previously, when he went to meet Mark Goldbridge (not his name) to talk about how he’s pulling in minimum six figures a year chatting absolute bollocks about Manchester United (not his club) into a webcam. "Goldbridge” says he has actually been to Old Trafford before (honest) and the people there have "shit opinions”.
You’d better believe there’s a LFW piece coming on this in some form or another soon (if you want some savage amusement in the meantime, stick "Nourry” "cooking” into your search bar on Twitter and scroll away through the summer just gone) but for now let me say this… A work trip to the South of France this week meant I watched QPR on the television on Tuesday night too and, if that game is anything to go by, I can see why the people who consume Rangers predominantly through screens are annoyed.
Much of the post-match comment coming out of the players and manager was about a positive performance and improvement. On my various WhatsApp groups the majority of comments felt it was better than Portsmouth, a bit unlucky perhaps, a step in the right direction, while still not great. I thought we looked fucking dire, against a team almost as shambolic as our own – Ben Sheaf apart. Having gone out to bat, tried to stay positive, talked about injured players coming back, new signings settling in… I was alarmed how poor we looked. Some notable exceptions of course – Koki Saito off the bench, young Kieran and his cheeky schoolboy post-match interview - but I watched it with my Spurs-supporting roommate and he was laughing. Laughing. "Is it always like this?” he asked at one point. Affirmative. And that’s a Spurs fan.
To be fair, it wasn’t the first, last or only time I was asked something like that over the last five days. It’s quite an interesting dynamic when you take two 30-somethings (shut up) out of their daily home, family and work lives, and stick them together in an apartment in Cannes for a week to work.
My roommate, who we’ll call Mike, because that’s his name, lives up in Epping Forest with his wife and two kids, and I live in Tooting with none of those things. My day is compartmentalised hour-by-hour in order to hold down both my intensely stressful day gig as a news editor, while also turning over LFW which has essentially grown into a second job. And if you want to know why I desperately need a second job/income then, well, Lizz Truss has got a book out and a lot of the answers are in there. Don’t buy the thing though for fuck’s sake.
So, I get up at 6am and process reports filed from my company’s reporters in the Australasia and North America timezones, deal with somewhere in the region of 400 emails that have arrived overnight, get some news copy through to the sub-editors for when they log on around 7am, and that’s my first hour. Second hour is out for a run, otherwise my manifestly excessive Peroni intake would leave me shopping for clothes in the "Steve Evans” section of the Jacamo website. It’s also a good opportunity to try and process what I’m going to say in any pieces like this I’ve got to write later in the day (today’s gone really well, can you tell?). 8am-9am is dealing with my UK-based team on what leads they’re working on. I’ll also try and get any generic cut and paste referee or history pieces that need posting onto LFW up in this slot. 9am-10am is dealing with initial, filler, downfeed copy from wherever it’s come from, and there’ll be some sort of breakfast here. 10am-11am is the big three or four stories we’re going to lead with today. 11am is go time, or pleading with sub editors for it to be go-time whether they’re really sure about that headline or not. 11am-noon is any LFW stuff/eating food I didn’t have time for in that earlier slot. And there’ll be a run at noon if there wasn’t one at 7am.
This continues. Through the afternoon. All day. Every day. Every week. If you give me a time of the day, I can tell you what I’ll be doing in it. It’s now 6pm on a Friday, which means I’m writing this top bit of the match preview. That bit down there, below the fold, was written mainly in a late afternoon slot on Thursday, and then topped up around 3pm today when the prediction league guys send their bits in and the stats from Opta and Sky land in the email inbox. Somewhere around 11pm there’s a final sweep of the work emails to make sure the reporters in other timezones don’t need anything, have anything break-newsworthy, and know what I’m expecting of them overnight. Three game weeks, work conferences, just take this down another circle or two on Dante’s inferno.
Mike watched this take place for a couple of days this week and asked again, "is it always like this?” Yes Mike, yes, it is. "You’re going to kill yourself”. Have I told you QPR have won 13 of their last 55 home games?
Mike was concerned by another aspect of the coping mechanism, though. Throughout the whole thing, from the start at 6am through to the finish before midnight, there is an iPad that sits just to the right of me here, and it plays the same things on a loop. Within that loop are old episodes of The Simpsons or Futurama, early seasons of Friends (stop judging), yes the first few episodes of Air Crash Investigation (the NTSB concluded there was no way Swiss Air 111 would have made Halifax Airport whatever those pilots did, ok?), but also repeated viewings of Rick Stein trundling round France getting over excited about the stuff he finds in markets.
It’s mostly in the same order as well. Two episodes of Frasier to begin – I timed the progress of the Covid lockdowns by the point the Channel 4 repeats jumped from the last episode back to the first. Then a Kitchen Nightmares, or possibly two: Momma Cherri’s Soul Food Shack; just the five heart attacks for Brian at the Fenwick Arms; where’s your passion for food? I’ve done all of ER, twice. I’ve done all of The West Wing, more than that. I tried with One Tree Hill, because the entire cast looks amazing with their tops off, and they take their tops off a lot, but there’s a plot point where a guide dog eats a heart transplant that’s been dropped on the floor and that’s a bit far fetched for me however big your nipples might be.
"Is it always like this?” Yes Mike, yes, it is. I reckon, in all genuine seriousness, I’ve watched Rick Stein’s Secret France a thousand times. Conservative estimate.
The reasons for this are many and varied. Gleaned through an expensive/unsuccessful stint in therapy, getting to know myself as I’ve grown up and become more comfortable with who I am, and Ghostbusters. If you, too, have watched Planes, Trains and Automobiles three quarters of a million times then there’s a piece in The Atlantic here about why that might be.
Personally, I know if you leave my brain by itself it’ll either come up with a match preview or try to kill me. It’ll either say "you know that Avianca plane that circled and circled until it ran out of fuel because the pilots were too afraid to admit they were in the shit? Well, you can do 2,500 words on that for a midweek defeat at Crewe”. Or it’ll literally tell me I’m a fucking dipshit and bring up that ridiculous joke I made in A-level Geography class, or that time I made a fool of myself at that wedding. It’ll tell me I’m an idiot, repeatedly. If you put something on in the background, something it’s seen before, and knows, and likes, it soothes it to the point I can function.
Why am I telling you all this? Because these previews don’t write themselves. Because it might strike a chord or ring a bell with one or both regular readers, and help. You’re not alone. I’m like this too. But, also, because a lot of the reasons I’ve seen the original State of Play (Amazon Prime, thank me later) 560 times, or got into double figures reading The Miracle of Castel Di Sangro, or Driving Over Lemons, or A Year in Provence (again, do it now, thank me later) is the same reason I’m going to Burnley tomorrow. A game I know we’ll lose.
Come back to that Atlantic article. It's all partly habit. It’s a regular and automatic thing, which I don’t have to think about, because when I think my brain is prone to going haywire. It’s partly addiction – "habits on evil steroids” – that are unmanageable and lead to physical dependence. It’s partly "status quo bias”, which leads humans to stick with previous decisions because the brain does not like change – particularly when your formative teenage years were beset with Bad Change. I watch QPR every week for the same reason I’ve seen every episode of The Office (there’s that headline callback), or The Thick Of It several hundred times. It’s familiar, it’s comforting, I know what's going to happen., I don’t have to think about it. I go, these people are there, they lose, I come home.
Partly it’s nostalgia. "Clay Routledge, a psychologist who studies nostalgia at North Dakota State University, says there are two strains of this cultural affliction: historical (a nostalgia for the past, in general) and autobiographical (nostalgia for an individual’s past, specifically).” Travelling with QPR is both of those for me. I do it because the happiest bit of my life was supporting that Les Ferdinand version when we used to beat teams you've heard of and finish in the top half of the Premier League, and also because I did that with my dad and his mates and I miss him and that. Which probably feeds into "the existential reason” – I’m basically here to follow QPR around, and write about what they’re doing. When I miss a game I feel like I’m letting him down.
Sometimes, though, it’s more simple than that. Sometimes I do it because I enjoy it. I obviously enjoy it a lot more when they win. I enjoy those wins when it’s the first win for a while. I enjoy them when it’s a victory you didn’t expect. I enjoy being roped back in just when I've given up all hope. I love that unexpected goal, result, beer-laden trip home. I hate sitting there watching us botch a game I know we can win, thought we would win, still think we might win. I love stumbling out of Turf Moor after Chris Martin has scored in the 87th minute, and having to run through the stunned home crowds to Manchester Road station in time for our connection. You have to keep going, and keep going, through the absolute dredge and drudge, just for those moments to feel like they do. Often it’s when you least expect too: Sunderland away on Good Friday, them with Phillips and Quinn, us with Ruddock and Jones; or Harry Redknapp’s farcical QPR away to Chelsea between Christmas and New Year. You’re so glad you kept the faith long enough to see it, but my God you have to sit through some sludge in the meantime.
There have been few outcomes I expected less, or enjoyed more, than Gareth Ainsworth’s stunning 2-1 victory at Turf Moor against runaway champions, unbeaten at home, Burnley. That was the worst QPR team I’ve ever watched, and it was down. It was down. Burnley were winning the title at a canter, their manager apparently so impressive he would subsequently end up at Bayern Munich. QPR had won one of their prior 21 fixtures. Burnley have still, to this day, lost one of the thick end of 50 home games in the Championship – a record going back the best part of a decade. And it was that one. I remember using Simon from the Open All R’s Podcast as a climbing frame, to try and get to the complacent Clarets who’d come for a coronation. I remember seeing Sam and his orange puffer jacket disappear beneath a pile of concrete steps and writhing bodies. I remember the lone Burnley teen, who’d obviously gone big and early in expectance of a trophy presentation, slumped on our train and slowly drooling his own vomit across the Northern Rail standard issue fold down table.
I remember being happy. And that’s why we keep doing it. All of it. Just in case it makes us happy like that again.
Links >>> Parker doing Parker things – Oppo Profile >>> Vine v Kiraly – History >>> Kitchen in charge – Referee >>> Burnley Official Website >>> Turf Moor – Ground Guide >>> No Nay Never — Podcast >>> Lancashire Telegraph — Local Press >>> Up The Clarets — Message Board
Team News: Those optimistic hopes a couple of wins and key players coming back from injury would settle us all down are now at risk of crumbling to dust with a couple of more winnable home games burned off, tough fixtures ahead, and the injury list being added to rather than subtracted from. Jack Colback shows no signs of imminent return to the team’s troubled midfield. What we were told on Tuesday was a "minor calf problem” for top scorer Michy Frey has been downgraded to simply "calf problem” which leaves the rather bereft looking Zan Celar as our only fit and available forward, with Rayan Kolli continuing to be overlooked for no other reason whatsoever than all the many better options we’ve got ahead of him. Kenneth Paal, the team’s only recognised left back, is now also injured. Morgan Fox had a nightmare against Portsmouth but looks the most likely replacement there. Koki Saito impressed as a left wing back against Coventry and may yet be required to step in again there. Paul Smyth also caught the eye against Cov, but limped off with ten minutes to go.
Burnley’s list of absentees is also pretty extensive. Manuel Benson, who scored last time these teams met, is out medium term with a carpet burn suffered in the derby with Blackburn. Centre back Jordan Beyer hasn’t played since December 2023 and that’s not likely to change any time soon after surgery on his knee explosion. Hannes Delcroix has been out since March with agoraphobia. Hjalmar Ekdal is yet to feature this season owing to his ongoing leprosy issue. Lyke Foster (knee), Nathan Redmond (bum), Aaron Ramsey (not that one) are all also definitely out. Jeremy Sarmiento pulled up lame in Hull on Wednesday. Mike Tresor hasn’t played this season because he doesn’t want to be here. Joe Worrall is also a no because it’s turned a bit cold out.
Elsewhere: Sky’s consideration for the match-going travelling supporter reaches new levels of outright fuckwittery this weekend.
Sheffield Wednesday’s local derby away at Portsmouth has been shifted to Friday night, which will be nice for them. Sunday afternoon it’s Middlesbrough’s short hop down to Norwich. The clutch of 12.30 Saturday games this week includes Leeds at Bristol City and Blackburn at Watford.
I suppose the only surprise is they managed to resist sticking Oxford’s trip to Sunderland in a Sunday breakfast slot, or Preston Knob End away at Wayne Rooney’s Plymouth as Monday Night Football perhaps?
Sub-human scum.
An entirely unremarkable weekend list is made up by surprise underachievers Coventry and Luton facing off tomorrow lunchtime, and then Derby v Hull, Sheffield Red Strip and Stoke, Swanselona v Millwall and West Brom hosting Cardiff in the afternoon.
Referee: Andrew Kitchen from Durham gets his first ever Burnley game. QPR are yet to win with this official in three attempts. Details.
Burnley: Burnley have lost one of 11 league fixtures so far, and have been beaten on just four of their last 80 games at Championship level. They have begun the season with three wins (5-0 v Cardiff, 2-1 v Portsmouth, 1-0 v Plymouth) and two draws (1-1 with Blackburn, 0-0 with Preston) at Turf Moor. This continues their remarkable record of only losing one Championship home game in 42 attempts going back to a 2-0 loss here in December 2015 against Preston. That one game was, of course, QPR’s stunning 2-1 win here in April 2022 when the R’s seemed certain to be relegated and the Clarets were gearing up to celebrate their title win under Vincent Kompany.
Burnley started this season with a 4-1 win at Luton and 5-0 at home to Cardiff. Things have reverted to Scott Parker type since then though following a chaotic end to a transfer window which saw 16 new players arrive and 22 depart. They’ve only lost once, 1-0 at Sunderland in game three, and come into this match unbeaten in eight games. Four of those have been drawn, three of the four wins have been by a single goal, they’ve kept five clean sheets, and they’ve scored one goal or fewer in eight of the 12 games so far. Five goals conceded is the best defence in the EFL. Preston and Blackburn both left Turf Moor with a point, Portsmouth conceded in injury time to lose 2-1, Plymouth lost 1-0 to a Josh Brownhill penalty. It is everything we’ve come to expect of Scott Parker teams at this level –pretty dire to watch, seemingly punching well below the weight of the players they’ve got performance wise, but rarely beaten and second in the league. Midfielder Josh Brownhill is the top scorer with five league goals.
That victory here on QPR’s last visit was all the more remarkable because this is traditionally not a fixture Rangers do well in. They’ve won one of the last five meetings, two of the last 15, four of the last 21 and five of the last 25. At Turf Moor QPR have won three of 22 visits. They’d lost five and drawn one of six visits before Chris Martin struck, and the Rowan Vine-inspired 2-0 win that came prior to that run in December 2007 was itself preceded by a run of five straight defeats going back to 1980.
#QPR have lost all 5 of their matches against teams managed by Scott Parker (Fulham x3, Bournemouth x2). pic.twitter.com/gNP9w0HnwW— Jack Supple (@JTSupple) October 25, 2024
Kieran is the first Morgan to score for @QPR since one of our legendary twins, Ian scored against Hull City on 20/11/71 in a 2-1 win at Loftus Road.#QPR pic.twitter.com/kU9tRoG6X7— Chris Guy (@ChrisGuyW12) October 22, 2024
QPR: It’s starting to look bleak for QPR who have won only one of 11 league games and two of 14 in league and cup so far. Their current total of eight is exactly the same as they had at this point last season under Gareth Ainsworth. Having lost 2-0 at both Blackburn and Derby this risks being a third away win on the spin for the first time under Marti Cifuentes – the last time it happened was Ainsworth’s last three away games in charge at West Brom, Leeds and Huddersfield this time a year ago. QPR’s last six games have been against the teams currently 24th, 22nd, 15th, 13th, 12th and 6th. Their next six are against the sides sitting 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 8th, 16th and 20th.
The midweek draw with Coventry did at least halt the latest run of four straight defeats (this is the sixth occasion in the last three and a bit seasons QPR have embarked on a run of at least four straight defeats in the Championship) but Rangers come into this game winless in seven league games, exactly the same as last time. Marti Cifuentes’ side are yet to keep a clean sheet in 14 league and cup games – Plymouth the only other Championship side without one. Having fallen behind early against Cov it extends the league’s worst record for leading games this season. Portsmouth at the weekend was only the third time the R’s have scored the first goal in a game, though like the other two (West Brom, Plymouth) the lead did not last long – 11 minutes on the opening day, 25 against the Pilgrims, and then nine against Pompey. Luton’s the only other game Rangers have been in front in so far, meaning they’ve led for just 76 of their 990 regulation minutes in the Championship. It’s the lowest total in the league, and second lowest in the EFL behind Burton.
Rangers haven’t scored more than one goal in a game in eight attempts. They’ve only scored twice in a game against Luton, Sheff Utd and Cambridge so far, and are yet to score three or more. Michy Frey, top scorer with four, is now out injured. Only Nicolas Madsen has more than one goal to his name apart from Frey. Kieran Morgan (18y 219d) is the youngest player to score a league goal for QPR since Antonio German (18y 84d) vs Swansea in March 2010. Chris Guy tells us he’s the first Morgan to score for QPR since Ian scored against Hull City on 20/11/71 in a 2-1 win at Loftus Road. Jack Supple adds that all three Morgans to play for the club scored for the R’s before turning 19.
Prediction: There’s still time to enter our Prediction League for 2024/25, where we’ll once again be handing out prizes for being top at Christmas and overall winner from The Art of Football - sample the merch from our sponsor’s newly extended QPR collection here. For the first time last year we had joint winners so this season you’ll be hearing from one or both WestonsuperR and SimplyNico in the match previews, and the former is already top of the league again this time around.
Nico’s Prediction: "The game against Coventry was interesting in a number of respects, those being that the starting line-up can keep a shape, JCS is good for 90 minutes, we have found a new left back and, most importantly, the team clearly are still playing for Marti. That said, when the substitutions started in earnest, we quickly lost shape, and with the absence of Frey, and Celar having to hold down the centre forward spot, we seemingly now have no central attacking threat. Sadly, I can Scott Parker’s team boring their way to another turgid win.”
Weston’s Call "A slight improvement vs Coventry has done little to tempt me into being more positive in this next fixture. The news today that Frey is out for some time has only added to the concern as we are likely to have one of Lloyd of Celar upfront with the grand total of one goal between them. It will be a long afternoon. Well done to all that are travelling.”
Nico’s Prediction: Burnley 2-0 QPR. No scorer.
WestonSuperR’s Prediction: Burnley 2-0 QPR. No scorer.
LFW’s Prediction: Burnley 1-0 QPR. No scorer.
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