QPR have regained their ability to come from behind in games, but are struggling with the challenge of leading from the front - can and will that change in that dreaded early Saturday kick off when they go off as favourites?
Sky’s Super Saturday Brunch Spectacular >>> Saturday September 21, 2024 >>> Kick Off 12.30 >>> Weather – Sunny with showers >>> Loftus Road, London, W12
You’ll never become much of a development club unless you can improve the players and team at your disposal. It’s the sign of a decent manager/coach if he’s able to do that. Welcome on into this week’s edition of state the fucking obvious.
For QPR though, for years, this stuff has been quantum physics. Players have been signed in often frighteningly large numbers and then either stayed the same or got worse.
We were talking on our most recent Patreon podcast about Matt Connolly and Kaspars Gorkss - both very good signings at cheap prices at a time when QPR didn’t do a lot of either of those things, both good players for us over long periods of time, but both left the club the same player they arrived and for basically the same money when you’d think/hope the idea was one of them would develop into a profitable investment and both had the ability to be exactly that.
Things have been a bit better during Rangers’ most recent elongated spell of Championship drudgery. Ryan Manning, Luke Freeman, Bright Osayi-Samuel and Ebere Eze all obviously progressed here; two of those were sold for good money, two of them had their contracts mishandled. But, still, too often players have come here and stagnated. You only need look down our recent departures – Seny Dieng, Rob Dickie, Chris Willock, Andre Dozzell, Lyndon Dykes, Charlie Kelman, Conor Masterson – and what we got for them relative to the hype and hope at various stages. We’ve been a development club without the development.
That would appear, tentatively, to be changing under Marti Cifuentes. I hesitate to mention it - and certainly won’t be dwelling, because we know what happens when I do that and we’re playing Millwall tomorrow who, even without Jake Cooper, are a pain in the arse with these things - but QPR went from the worst team in the Championship for offensive and defensive set pieces over the first 30-odd games of last season to the best over the final ten. That has continued this term, with Rangers scoring four from corners already (three taken by Dembele, one by Paal). Cifuentes did that, at least last season, without being able to make significant adjustments to his squad. Sam Field – five in his last 18, five in 38 under Cifuentes, four in his first 110 before this manager got here. Working with what you’ve got. All a far cry from that dreadful Harry Redknapp period where every problem was to be covered up with another five ludicrously expensive signings and questions about why we conceded from every corner and lost every away game were straight batted back with "you’ll have to ask the chairman” why we can’t sign even more.
Early days so no need to incessantly focus on numbers yet, but QPR’s set-piece numbers (so far) represent a hugely positive change from previous seasons
Low volume of SP attempts allowed & lowest SP xGA (expected goals against) of any @SkyBetChamp team so far #QPR @OptaAnalyst pic.twitter.com/qu0o62gfvm— QPR Analytics (@AnalyticsQpr) September 17, 2024
There’s been another obvious improvement in us from last year to this in the early games. For most of the last two years, conceding the first goal (particularly away from home) was akin to losing the match altogether for QPR. They didn’t recover a single point away from home last season from a losing position. Over the final 34 games of the previous season (Beale, Critchley, Ainsworth in charge across this period) they only picked up two points home or away having gone behind in games (2-2 draws at Reading and West Brom). The total for the entire season, home and away, was just five. The previous year, under Mark Warburton, we’d won five points from losing positions by game four (Millwall H 1-1, Boro A 3-2, Barnsley H 2-2).
That confidence in our attack, and belief in ourselves, really decayed away after that Warburton promotion push fell apart, and then collapsed completely following Beale’s defection. There are now just one or two hints that it’s coming back as Cifuentes again takes an obvious problem with the team and addresses it directly. QPR have already picked up five points from losing positions, all of them away, in a start that sent us to two of the three relegated Premier League sides in August. Rangers have also now scored in 11 consecutive league and cup games going back to the 3-0 loss at Hull in April. It’s the longest run since that Warburton team scored in 27 straight games across two seasons between the end of 2020/21 and 2021/22.
As is often the case at QPR, and in fairness fairly typical of clubs at this level who don’t have parachute payments to cover up their myriad problems and failures, if it’s not one thing, it’s another. Coaching Rangers can be like some large scale game of football whack-a-mole where as soon as you solve one problem, another crops up somewhere else. Having discovered the ability to retrieve deficits and get positive results, this footballing Goldilocks has now forgotten how to lead from the front. Against Luton and Palace Rangers only really took the handbrake off and started playing with freedom and attacking purpose once they’d gone behind in the games – lo and behold although one is a recently relegated parachute payment team and the other a good Premier League side with its first 11 out there, both proved eminently gettable for our current group. This was particularly stark at Sheff Wed last weekend where a largely dreadful 90 minute performance culminated in Barry Bannon scoring in the first minute of stoppage time to apparently win the game, only for Rangers to storm down the other end and show they could trouble their hosts after all. Why not go wild and try that a bit sooner?
Only against Plymouth, where Rangers properly flew out of the blocks and created the extremely rare phenomenon of a goal after just three minutes that had been coming, have we really come out purposefully on the front foot from the off. Ten shots on target that day, Kenny Jackett will tell you that’s usually a win and with better finishing and a different opposition goalkeeper it would surely have been.
Without a home win in four attempts, Rangers could really do with a start like that tomorrow. As well as the detested, dreaded, atmosphere-destroying 12.30 kick off, and Millwall’s set piece prowess, there are a couple of other warning lights flashing over this game.
QPR are, as against Plymouth, really expected to win. Certainly, the bookies’ favourites in any case. Wawll also come in carrying a number of injuries to key players, not least ever pesky centre back Jake Cooper and new forward signing Josh Coburn. They’ve failed to score in three of their last four games, lost three in the league already, got dumped out of the League Cup by Orient, and have only won once in the Championship so far. Outwardly it looks like that decision to stick with Neil Harris after his surprisingly impressive rescue job last season has simply led Millwall back to exactly the same place they were on September 21, 2019, when a 2-1 QPR win at The Den saw them sack this manager the first time around. But I’m always nervous when we’re supposed to win a game, and the Lions’ trendy underlying numbers are surprisingly good. They have created the most ‘big chances’ in the league (18) and their xG of 9.04 is bettered only by Boro (9.76). Duncan Watmore is second top scorer in the division with four, and has had more touches in the opposition box than all but two others (Wright at Coventry, Latte Lath at Boro).
It all adds up to a Marge Simpson grumbly noise, and wouldn’t it just be so nice if we were to go out there tomorrow and put all that doubt to bed with a proper, dominant, front foot, early lead, comfortable win and lovely day out? Now that really would be development and progress.
One can dream.
Links >>> Stuttering start – Oppo Profiles >>> Cup cliffhanger – History >>> Busby in charge – Referee >>> Millwall official website >>> South London Press — Local Paper >>> News at Den — Blog >>> North Stand Banter — Forum >>> News Shopper — Local Paper
Team News: QPR will likely have Jake Clarke-Salter back in their line up after a full week’s training following his latest calf issue. Ilias Chair has also trained with the rest of the etam for the first time this week but his return will be managed over the coming weeks. Morgan Fox remains sidelined. Jack Colback and Liam Morrison also both missed out with knocks during the week.
Injuries are having a good chew on this Millwall squad early. Liverpool loanee Calum Scanlon has today been ruled out for pretty much the rest of 2024. Josh Coburn, who they’ve borrowed from Boro, went off after half an hour in the home loss to Luton and is out for six to eight weeks. Another of their summer signings up front, Mihailo Ivanovic, is yet to debut thanks to the injury he picked up in pre-season. Jake Cooper, a persistent pest at set pieces in both boxes, did his calf against Luton, was replaced by Shaun Hutchinson at half time, and will miss this game.
Elsewhere: Having given managers all of the summer and the transfer budget for the season to mould the teams in their image it is now, obviously, time to start sacking one or two of them. It’s been more than a fortnight, we’ve played two games since the transfer window closed, that’s more than enough time to get everybody gelled, bedded in and up to speed.
Having started off with four wins from six, including a victory over much fancied Coventry and a 5-0 away cup win at Middlesbrough, it’s no surprise at all to see Stoke City going first. It’s just what they do, and they’ve been on the brink of doing it to Stephen Schumacher seemingly ever since they paid hefty compensation and five times his salary to take him from Plymouth in the first place. Remember it was widely expected he’d have been binned off had we won up there on valentine’s day – to change your mind on a decision of that size because the team has scraped a 1-0 win at home to QPR, then go through the whole summer with him, then bin him off anyway in the second week of September is prime Stoke in the first instance and doesn’t suggest a lot of forward planning in the second. Narcis Pelach, a 36-year-old Catalonian coach from Norwich, strong of ideals and eyebrows, is the next cab on the rank there ahead of tonight’s thrilling TV game at home to Hull.
As we start to glance around at who might be next, Tim Walter at the Tigers figures pretty high on the list. It was always going to be tough having lost 63 of the 67 goals from last year’s team and bled out talent like Fabio Carvalho and Jaden Philogene, and that was before the promised summer signings failed to materialise and the likes of Kieffer Moore and Brandon Thomas-Asante reneged on deals to move there at the eleventh hour. To that extent you’ve got to feel a bit for Walter, but his technique of putting all ten outfield players in the box for attacking corners, meaning you’re only ever one defensive header away from your goalkeeper being alone in the rest of the pitch with three or four attackers, is just plain stupid. This self proclaimed "heart attack football” has yielded no goals in the last three games. Do the board/fans still think Liam Rosenior was a bit overly cautious and boring? Careful what you wish for lads.
Erol Bulut surely isn’t long for this world after one point from Cardiff’s first five league games – Chris Willock’s managed to complete one 90 minutes so far, zero goals, zero assists. Leeds aren’t exactly the opposition you’d choose to try and turn that around against, but they’ve only won two of six games themselves and that Daniel Farke criticism will ratchet up over the coming weeks if that doesn’t improve following last week’s defeat to Burnley. Similarly, Liam Manning had plenty to prove over the way last season ended at Bristol City and having lost 3-0 in consecutive away games to Derby and Blackburn the knives are starting to come out down at Ashton Gate. How much in form Oxford would enjoy being the ones to push him over the edge this weekend after he walked out on the U’s midway through last year for the City job.
Elsewhere, the lunchtime kick offs are made up by Norwich hosting Watford and a North East derby between high flying Sunderland and Middlesbrough.
All three of the relegated sides play at home among the 1500 starts. Burnley host Portsmouth, Luton are against Sheff Wed while Derby make the short hop up to Sheffield Red Stripe. Coventry v Swanselona and West Brom at home to Wayne Rooney’s Plymouth concludes the Saturday action.
The Sunday breakfast game is the latest Lancashire derby, this time between Preston Knob End and Blackburn.
Referee: Up and coming Oxfordshire official John Busby is the man in the middle for this one. We gave him a rare 8/10 when he was last here. Details.
QPR: Alfie Lloyd’s remarkable last second equaliser at Hillsborough was one of 11 shots Rangers had on goal in the second half against Sheff Wed, versus just two in the first. It also maintained QPR’s record of scoring in every game they’ve played so far. Since losing 3-0 at Hull in April, QPR have scored in all 11 league and cup games, a running total bettered only by Man City (16 consecutive games), Exeter (19) and Stockport (20). Cifuentes’ team has had the most shots on target in Championship – 27 and only Boro (203) have had more than our 148 touches in opposition box (not all of them came in the 96th minute at Hillsborough, honest). Having gained zero points from losing positions on the road in the whole of last season, QPR have done so in all three of their away league games so far – that total of five points having trailed is the best in the division.
This has so far translated into more draws than anything else – Rangers have drawn four of their eight games so far. They’re the only side in the league who have scored and conceded in every game so far. The midweek loss to Crytal Palace in the cup was the R’s first defeat since the opening day against West Brom. It does mean, however, that we’re once again four games at Loftus Road deep into the new campaign without a home win – it took nine games to secure a home win last season and Rangers have lost ten and 12 (club record) of their home matches across the last two seasons.
Both meetings between these two teams last season finished 2-0 to the home side, and were arguably the away sides’ worst performances of the whole year. In 2022/23 both matches were won by the away team. That is Millwall’s only win on this ground in 14 attempts going back to 1988/89, although a draw is often a good bet in these fixtures – six of those 14 have finished level. Rangers have lost three of the last five meetings after only three of the previous 19.
Sam Field has scored 5 goals in 38 appearances in total under Marti Cifuentes, with these 5 goals arriving across his last 18 games.
Field had scored just 4 goals in his 110 games for QPR before Cifuentes’ arrival.
🔵#QPR⚪️ pic.twitter.com/plR0JOuObe— Jack Supple (@JTSupple) September 18, 2024
Millwall The Lions were arguably the worst team QPR played in the second half of last season, losing 2-0 at Loftus Road in January. That was part of a sequence of just four wins from 19 games, and seven without a win, under manager Joe Edwards which ultimately cost him his job. Neil Harris’ return for a 2-1 away win at Southampton sparked a remarkable run in recovery in which Wawll won eight and drew two of 13 games, finishing with five successive victories (four of them 1-0). Only promoted Ipswich picked up more points over the final 13 games.
Things have been somewhat tougher this time around – four points from five league games is their worst start in nine seasons. The early record is boosted substantially by a comfortable 3-0 home win against Sheff Wed just before the international break. That’s currently the Lions’ only league win with defeats to Watford H (3-2), Bristol City A (4-3) and Luton H (1-0) already on their slate, and a League Cup exit at home to Orient. Harris’ side have failed to score in three of their last four games and are yet to score in a first half at all – all eight goals have come after half time.
Quite a lot of their ‘underlying numbers’ are pretty good though. Only Josh Maja (five) has scored more than Duncan Watmore’s four Championship goals so far – and of course we treated Maja to three of those. Only Coventry’s Haji Wright and Boro’s Emmanuel Latte Lath have had more touches in the opposition box so far than Watmore who has scored twice against Boro, one at Bristol City and one at home to Sheff Wed. Despite their ropey results, Millwall have created the most ‘big chances’ in the league (18) and their xG of 9.04 is bettered only by Boro (9.76).
Prediction: There’s still time to enter our Prediction League for 2024/25, where we’ll once again be handing out prizes for being top at Christmas and overall winner from The Art of Football - sample the merch from our sponsor’s newly extended QPR collection here. For the first time last year we had joint winners so this season you’ll be hearing from one or both WestonsuperR and SimplyNico in the match previews.
Nico’s Prediction: "Well, I hope nobody is following my tips this season as they would not have scored a single point so far. As regards Millwall, they have not been setting the world alight this season and I see that Neil Harris is warning his team to be wary of an aggressive QPR at set pieces. We had some nice passages of play against Palace during the week and on that basis, a win for the Hoops.”
Weston’s Call "Tough to be overly positive after a pretty poor display vs Wednesday and our home form continuing to be a struggle, now no wins in four matches at Loftus Rd this season. I did get the prediction right last weekend and will stick to the same scoreline although fancy us to score first this time.”
Nico’s Prediction: QPR 2-1 Millwall. Scorer – Jimmy Dunne
WestonSuperR’s Prediction: QPR 1-1 Millwall. Scorer – Michy Frey
LFW’s Prediction: QPR 2-0 Millwall. Scorer – Michy Frey
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