Don't look now, but QPR are favourites to win as they face off against Plymouth Argyle at Loftus Road as part of Sky's ongoing ratings war with Saturday Kitchen.
Sky’s Super Saturday Brunch Spectacular >>> Saturday August 24, 2024 >>> Kick Off 12.30 >>> Weather – All of the water falling from the sky all at once >>> Loftus Road, London, W12
There were many reasons Gareth Ainsworth’s dream job at QPR turned into such a complete nightmare, for him and for us. Plenty were entirely out of his control and, having coveted the role at Loftus Road for the best part of a decade, he really couldn’t have arrived here at a worse time. Several of the failings, however, were definitely his, as highlighted by the difference Marti Cifuentes made after he took over in October.
One of his failings was a repeated attempt to cast QPR as some plucky underdog just lucky to even be in the Championship. Now partly that will have been driven by the problems that were out of his control and wanting to manage expectations of what would be possible for the team, but you sense also that Ainsworth’s powers of motivation and man management are best suited to those backs-against-the-wall situations where you can build an us-against-the-world mentality in the dressing room.
In his previous job Ainsworth would repeatedly reference the budget he was working with, the fact they’d nearly gone out of the EFL altogether early in his reign, the size of the other clubs in the division. He’d openly talk about how amazing it was players of the calibre of Sam Vokes wanted to come and play for his little old club because he’d heard how good the dressing room was, and every game was played in the style of a lower league team attempting a cup upset.
Wycombe MkII was never going to fly at Queens Park Rangers. I think after ten years in the Championship, and many thousands of LFW column inches written on how our owner spends up to £2m a month just to prop that status up, the good people of Shepherd’s Bush are fairly well aware of our place in the footballing world these days. Certainly relative to the bed wetter’s switchboard up at Leeds where, despite spending more time in League One than the Premier League over the last 25 years, they’re currently having a rabid meltdown with statements from the supporters’ trust because "Georgie” Rutter quite fancies playing for BRIGHTON (can you believe?) instead and their board think £45m isn’t a bad price for a player who helped them get relegated out of the top flight and then couldn’t get them back up last year. But trying to convince us we’re just lucky to be playing at West Brom at all after crossing the halfway line once in 90 minutes, or that losing 4-0 on opening day to Watford can be excused because they might end up champions (finished 15th) is never going to work here.
I rake over these old graves again purely because for big chunks of the West Brom home game, and again in the first half at Sheff Utd, it felt like our team had regressed back to that mentality somewhat. Overpowered and over awed, standing off opponents, letting them play over, round and through us. When a cross needed to be stopped a foot was dangled instead, by Kenneth Paal, and Paul Smyth. When a foul needed to be committed Jonathan Varane bounced back off his man. Because West Brom are just so strong and mighty, and Sheff Utd were in the Premier League last year, what’s a boy supposed to do?
The second half at Bramall Lane was much more like what Rangers became through the second half of last season. It’s only the bloody Championship lads, get on the front foot, get a few tackles in, kick a few people, get on the ball, try a few things, attack with a bit of width and purpose, see where it takes you. Look at some of the teams that not only stayed up but finished midtable in this league last year, and how they did it: Cardiff, 12th because they can take corners; Millwall, 13th because tactical magician Neil Harris turned up in the spring; Preston, 10th because they were good for a fortnight in August; Norwich, made the play-offs because they had Gabriel Sara; Stoke, 17th because… well I don’t know how they did that to be honest and neither do they. All three promoted teams survived. There’s nothing to be afraid of here. You’re taking on the cast of Love Island at maths.
It was therefore a mixture of joy and relief to see QPR belatedly kick into gear against Chris Wilder’s side a week ago.
Karamoko Dembele and Koki Saito were obviously the headline acts, so wonderfully skilled in possession and smooth across the ground, but the whole team upped it a few levels. We were on the front foot, ten yards further up the pitch at least, asserting ourselves on the opponent. Kenneth Paal, who’s had a nightmare pre-season and first couple of games, much more like his old self at left back, epitomising the change of mentality. And, lo and behold, even a team of Sheff Utd’s obvious resource and intimidating summer intake, folded over and let you have a point.
It was a point won despite Jack Colback’s latest public brain fart, which sadly rather took the sheen off the difference he’d made since coming on at half time. Jonathan Varane, sadly, had been something of a rabbit in headlights during the first half – completely static and ball watching as United moved Hamer and O’Hare into space around him for the first, and then far too weak in the challenge when QPR needed him to commit a tactical foul for the second. Such was Varane’s performance, and the difference an old stager like Colback made as his replacement, the message board began to wonder whether we shouldn’t go to the well for the sort of pragmatic Isaac Hayden signing that helped get us out of the shit last January.
The answer to that came today in the form of Denmark’s most enormous man Nicolas Madsen who has been brought in to provide that much needed link up between defence and attack. A midfielder who, at least in theory, can take the ball on the turn from the defence and provide it to the array of little tens we’re assembling behind the striker, while also contributing a decent number of goals himself. Colback can sort of do this, when he isn’t chewing the referee’s leg, and Sam Field should be able to, but is far too risk averse. Goals from central midfield have been a problem for QPR for a long time, but having CMs who just bang every ball they receive straight back to the centre back or goalkeeper who gave it to them in the first place has grown as an issue since QPR started trying to play Cifuentes football.
Whether Madsen can solve that problem remains to be seen. He’s stood out playing for a mediocre side in the Jupiler League. In this regard he fits the profile of all of our summer signings to this point. We’re all in, it seems.
The profile of the signings we’re making are exactly what we need to do. We got ourselves into a mess through making short term recruitment and retainment decisions. We need to find value in the market, we need to pay less in salary, we need sellable assets, we need a younger team. You get that by shopping in unfashionable parts of Europe. And, lo, our summer intake so far has come from Lommel (Belgium), Brest (giggity), Lugano (Switzerland), Sporting Gijon (Spanish second division), Estrela (Portuguese team, not the Spanish beer), Perth Glory (900 dollaredoos), Bayern Munich (B team, don’t get too excited), and Westerlo (couldn’t escape if I wanted to). The age of this merry band of boys are 25, 22, 23, 30, 21, 21, 18, 23 and 24.
Within that comes even more risk than your normal signings, of which you’re lucky if three of every five succeed. Some will settle straight away - Paul Nardi the goalkeeper, and the Dembele-Saito combination already look exciting. Some will take time - Jonathan Varane had a bit of a mare at Sheff Utd, Hevertton Santos looks a bit George Weah’s cousin at this point. And some won’t settle at all.
Some are really keen to hail this summer as a tremendous success, and as somebody who has banged the drum for literally years about a more considered, strategic, analytical approach to our recruitment rather than bringing in players because the manager knows the dad, or we like the agent, I’m encouraged. I am slightly concerned that it’s QPR once again going all in on one approach (Hasselbaink was presented a load of data and analytics buys from Europe too, Holloway signed whoever Gary Penrice liked, Beale was allowed to sign loads of people he knew) when often the best recruitment operations bring a nice variety and balance of player in, but I do like the profile of a lot of the signings. But, then, we were reminiscing this week about how excited we got when we signed Lee Camp, Simon Walton, Ben Sahar, Daniel Nardiello, Michael Mancienne and… yeh.
We’re at the don’t know stage. It’s going to take time to work, and it’s going to take time before we know if it’s working or failing. In the meantime, as Marti Cifuentes says in his own erudite way, the rest of the league has already started.
What you need to buy you that time is a few wins to settle everybody down, keep the crowd calm, relax the players. And so we come to that most terrifying of things, the game where QPR are favourites to win. At home to a Plymouth side in freefall for much of 2024, with three away wins in 25, and Wayne Rooney chomping away on his chew toy in the dugout. The atmosphere killer that is the Sky enforced 12.30 start, and the sort of storm even Michael Fish might get a bit concerned about forecast to park right over Loftus Road just as we’re trying to play our cute little passes into Dembele and Saito.
Hold me.
Links >>> Roooooooney – Oppo Profile >>> His name was Buzsaky – History >>> Goblin child – Referee >>> Plymouth Argyle Official Website >>> Plymouth Herald – Local Press >>> Argyle Life/Green and White Podcast >>> Pasoti – Forum >>> Cornich Janner – YouTube Vlog
Team News: Nicolas Madsen’s arrival wasn’t announced until late afternoon, and was reported as still requiring a visa, so he’s unlikely to play here you’d think – though he has already started four games for Westerlo this season so should be good to go from Luton onwards. Karamoko Dembele was man of the match on full debut at Sheff Utd and will certainly start. Koki Saito’s chances of doing likewise bolstered by his superb cameo at Bramall Lane and Lucas Andersen ripping his groin taking a corner – the Dane should be back for Friday night, though. Ilias Chair remains sidelined with a back injury – Plymouth site Pasoti says that’s probably from carrying this team for two years which is a line so brilliant I’m booting myself constantly for not coming up with it myself. Morgan Fox is absent, and Steve Cook dipped out of Tuesday’s open training session early so he’s presumably a doubt as well. Young Liam Morrison next in line to replace him. If you see Reggie Canon alert the authorities.
If Morrison is to play in the Championship then he’ll be up against a fresh striker as Plymouth got their Michael Obafemi loan over the line in time for this one. With Morgan Whittaker without a goal in ten, and Ryan Hardie scoreless in 14 in the league (he did net in the League Cup) that’s a welcome boost for a team that has scored 13 in its last 20 matches. Victor Palsson and Muhamed Tijani are injured.
Elsewhere: The coastguard and port pilots had all on last Sunday as all Sheff Wed’s HMS Piss The League memes tried to quietly slide back into the dry dock at once – a 4-0 opening day win against Plymouth followed swiftly by a goal difference equalising 4-0 loss at Sunderland. They’re at home to Red Bull Leeds tonight where the supporters’ trust’s candlelit vigil and "#GeorgieDontGo” Twitter campaign doesn’t seem to have moved the needle on his move to Brighton (can’t believe it, thoughts and prayers guys) and they’re currently running at a rate of one "WHAT THE FUCK IS GOING ON” podcast a day. Quick £10m spent on left winger Largie Ramazani from Almeria this week, must be nice to have those sort of crises.
🔥 RANT ALERT! @Brownie89 joins @ConorMcGilligxn to break down all the latest drama at Leeds United! From Farke to the West Brom match and Georginio Rutter’s situation - no punches pulled! 👊
👉 Watch the full discussion here at 5:https://t.co/Ecv92Xxqc9
💬 Let us know… pic.twitter.com/2zCZNIFBpK— One Leeds Fan Channel (@OneLeedsFC) August 15, 2024
That rampaging Sunderland victory has also set tongues wagging about Gab Sutton’s surprise choice of the Mackems as his title pick for his season preview – widely ridiculed at the time, not least by the Sunderland fans themselves, but not looking quite so daft now after two wins, two clean sheets and six goals scored. Jack Clarke’s impending move to Ipswich might puncture that balloon somewhat and it’s a proper acid test of their chances at home to Scott Parker’s "he had ten thousand men” Burnley squad.
Naturally we have to wade through a clutch of games moved to 12.30 for Sky’s glorified red button service first. As well as our game there’s Bristol City at home to Coventry - two decent bets for the play-offs there and City are starting to do some sharp business with George Earthy and Scott Twine now in the building. The other game is Hull, where the promised signings are yet to materialise and the early performances have been poor, hosting Millwall, where Neil Harris has been talking about his favourite thing again this week – what it means to be Wawll, what is Wawll, and what most definitely isn’t Wawll. Losing the first two games of the season conceding seven goals in the process is, apparently, not Wawll at awll.
The lucky sods who get to kick off at 15.00 are led by Preston at home to Luton. Caretaker manager Mike Marsh resigned on Monday and Paul Heckinbottom will take charge this week meaning Knob End have had three different managers for the first three games, the first time that’s happened at this level since… Preston did it in 1975/76 with Bobby Charlton, Nobby Stiles and Harry Catterick.
Then there’s a whole load of teams we don’t really know what to make of. Blackburn and Oxford were both in our predicted bottom three, but both are scoring goals and winning games ahead of their meeting at Ewood Park. Boro we thought would do well, but they were beaten 1-0 at Derby who looked atrocious in the opening round – Pompey go to the Riverside while Derby are at Watford who are also defying doom-ladened pre-season predictions with two wins of their own to begin with. Norwich are struggling, Jon Rowe the latest big name departure from there, ahead of a home game with Sheff Utd. Can Stoke follow up a surprise win against Coventry with another against West Brom, who are looking to add Tom Cannon to an already impressive start.
Swanselona and Cardiff (two games, two defeats, seven conceded, non scored) tear each other limb from limb on Sunday afternoon.
And, of course, no surprise to see England manager Sven Goran Eriksson in the crowd.
Referee: I’ll give it to you straight, like a pear cider that’s made with 100% pear… It’s Gavin Ward.
QPR: It’s a win, a draw and a defeat for QPR so far who’ve really only played to anything like their potential in the first half at Cambridge and second half at Sheff Utd. The defeat to West Brom was QPR’s first ever home loss on the opening day of the season at this level. It’s the first time they’ve lost their first match of the season three years in a row since the mid 90’s when they were beaten by Villa (4-1, 93/94), Man Utd (2-0, 94/95) and Blackburn (1-0, 95/96) in consecutive years. It took Rangers nine goes to get a home win on the board in 23/24 – seven defeats and two draws. They won just two of their first 17 matches overall.
Both games with Plymouth finished level in 23/24 – 0-0 at Loftus Road when a bright start by the visitors was wrecked by Dan Scarr’s 25th minute red card, and 1-1 at Home Park where Rangers’ hard fought away win was torched by a succession of missed chances and a late howler by Asmir Begovic. It extends Rangers’ fairly dire recent record against the Pilgrims – no wins in the last three and only one in the last 14 in league and cup. A 2-0 win thanks to an Adel Taarabt penalty and Damion Stewart header right at the start of Neil Warnock’s reign in 2010 is the only success Rangers have had over the Green Army since the memorable 3-2 win at Loftus Road which kept Ian Holloway in his job in September 2004. Plymouth have won five and there have been eight draws between the sides since then. It’s better for the R’s at Loftus Road where they’ve lost only one of the last 13 meetings back to 1956 QPR have lost just one of their last 13 (W7 D5).
Lyndon Dykes’ late equaliser at Bramall Lane was a big goal for him as speculation continues to swirl that he may be playing elsewhere come the end of the window – big spending Birmingham the latest club linked. He’s now scored three in his last five games (Sheff Utd A, Leeds H, Preston H) after none in 14 and three in 25. The equaliser at Bramall Lane was his first goal away from home in more than a year, and that one was also part of a comeback from two goals down to draw 2-2 - at The Hawthorns against West Brom over Easter 2023. There were 24 away appearances between those two goals, and his last away goal before that was another 32 games back at Fulham away in October 2021.
QPR have never lost any of the seven games in which Jimmy Dunne has scored for them. Wayne Fereday holds the club record for that – 22 goals without defeat – but Chris Willock was closing in on him with 20 before his big career move to Cardiff City. Jack Supple’s been in touch to say Dunne now has as many goal involvements in 2024 as Willock – two goals and two assists from 19 appearances versus one goal and three assists from 20.
QPR have already picked up the same amount of points in 2024 as they did in the whole of 2023 (36 points)
And there are still 22 league games left to play in 2024 pic.twitter.com/E7hoUouuZc— Hoops & Dreams (@HoopsDreams_QPR) August 18, 2024
Plymouth: Eyebrows raised all over the Championship when Argyle plumped (stop it) for Wayne Rooney in the summer, and a 4-0 loss at Sheff Wed on day one was an inauspicious start for Wazza. Things have steadied down somewhat since then with a comfortable 3-0 cup win at home to Cheltenham and a 1-1 draw at Home Park against Hull in the Championship.
Those early results do continue some worrying trends from the second half of last season. The Pilgrims put nine wins on the board up to the beginning of February, placing them 15th in the league and eight points north of the drop zone. Through the remaining three months they won only four of their 17 games to ultimately survive by one place and one point. As is often the case for the newly promoted teams with low budgets in the Championship, away wins were particularly hard to come by. It took until February 4 at Swansea for them to record one at all, and they finished up with just three overall – the others coming at Boro and divisional whipping boys Rotherham. With the Sheff Wed humbling thrown in there it means Plymouth have now won three, drawn seven and lost 14 of their last 24 away from home. They’ve lost the last three away games without scoring, conceding eight in the process.
We went big on Plymouth’s survival chances in our season preview a year ago on the basis we thought they’d score enough goals to be okay. Their total of 59 goals was the best total south of tenth in the table bar Blackburn and Watford. Morgan Whittaker bagged 19 in the league and 20 overall, with another 12 (1) chucked in by Ryan Hardie for good measure – Ilias Chair and Lyndon Dykes top scored for QPR with seven apiece for comparison. Whittaker has 41 career goals despite never taking a penalty. But the goals have rather dried up for both: Whittaker hasn’t scored at all in ten appearances and has just two in his last 18 appearances after 17 in his previous 27. His previous driest spell for Argyle was six. Hardie, meanwhile, scored against Cheltenham in the League Cup but hasn’t netted in the league in 14 outings. Argyle scored 47 goals in their first 28 matches last season but have scored only 13 in 20 games since.
Prediction: There’s still time to enter our Prediction League for 2024/25, where we’ll once again be handing out prizes for being top at Christmas and overall winner from The Art of Football - sample the merch from our sponsor’s newly extended QPR collection here. For the first time last year we had joint winners so this season you’ll be hearing from one or both WestonsuperR and SimplyNico in the match previews.
Nico says: "After our start last week, my predicted extent of loss didn’t seem high enough. However, the second half comeback (Colback meltdown aside) showed what the team can do and that they have some belief. With more Marti time at the training ground and the new players getting to know the system and speed of the Championship, I think we will kick on this week and get our first win of the season.”
WestonSuperR adds: "We finally got our season going in the second half at Sheffield, continue even close to that performance and we should be in for an enjoyable afternoon. We still look like we will give chances away though so expect us to concede but with the new lads bolstering the attack I’m confident we grab the three points. Really not sure who will be selected as Striker and as Dembele looked great last week with bags of confidence I’ve selected him to score on his home debut.”
Nico’s Prediction: QPR 2-1 Plymouth. Scorer – Karamoko Dembele
WestonSuperR’s Prediction: QPR 2-1 Plymouth. Scorer – Karamoko Dembele
LFW’s Prediction: QPR 1-1 Plymouth. Scorer – Karamoko Dembele
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