Resident professional odds compiler Owen Goulding says the bookies have over-priced an own goal in the QPR West Brom game this Saturday.
This for me is what football is all about: a match at the beginning of the festive season, on a Saturday afternoon, everyone in good spirits about the weeks ahead, just how it should be.
Rangers arrive back to Loftus Road after yet another battle on foreign territory which returned eleven beaten casualties. Charlie Austin will return for this game and one thing that should be evident is an attacking QPR team. Eleven goals scored in their last five home games only backs up the frustration that the travelling hoops faithful experience every other week but there seems no point in droning on about why they play completely different home than away - it is what it is and I can’t see anything changing while the current manager is in charge so let’s just concentrate on this game.
West Brom have regressed in recent years and were lucky to retain their position in the Premier League last season. Alan Irvine is a less than inspiring boss for sure but their main problem (which can be partially attributed to the manager) is a distinct lack of creation from midfield. Craig Gardner huffs and puffs and in fact has been one of their shining lights during a poor season so far, but players such as Mulumbu, Brunt and Sessegnon who in recent times have been the main creating force for the Baggies, are having very indifferent seasons. Part of this is due to the negative tactics of the manager but the first chapter from the Alan Irvine book of tactics is not to concede and in truth he has partially succeeded as they have conceded fewer goals than any other team in the bottom half - a stat that can be strongly attributed to the good form of Joleon Lescott.
Their problem is the other end of the pitch where only three teams have scored less than them in the whole of the league. The current match prices don't interest me as they give us no edge - 6/4 QPR, 12/5 the draw and 11/5 West Brom, but looking closer at the stats of the recent games involving both sides shine a light on a potential bet. The statistics show an alarming amount of own goals in the games in question. Two of West Brom's last three away goals have been scored by the opposition with five own goals coming in QPR's last five home games. So my bet for the game - given the nervousness of the teams involved and the potential for mistakes from both sides - is for an own goal being scored in this game at a price a lot bigger than it should be based on recent statistics.
Recommended bet: QPR v West Brom - Own Goal to be scored - 17/2 @PaddyPower
Elsewhere my bet of the weekend comes Oop North where Scunthorpe return to league action after an energy sapping FA Cup trip across the country and a record breaking penaslty shootout. Fatigue is likely to be a factor for the Iron and coupled with an injury list that keeps mounting, the last place they want to go to is Valley Parade where the Bantams are starting a real promotion push and have a fully fit squad to chose from. The 10/11 available looks a must play.
Bet of Weekend: Bradford to beat Scunthorpe - 10/11 @ Betfair.
Big Price goal scorers:
Aaron Cresswell West Ham v Leicester - 17/1 Anytime @ Betway
Mark Hudson - Huddersfield v Birmingham - 12/1 Anytime - Betfred
Jordan Clarke - Yeovil v Colchester - 10/1 Anytime - PaddyPower