QPR welcome Bolton to Loftus Road on Tuesday, a timely reminder of the perils of staying out of the Premier League for too long after a relegation.
Old First Division, Old Old Second Division >>> Tuesday January 28, 2014 >>> Kick Off 19.45 >>> Loftus Road, London, W12
Perhaps one of the reasons the atmosphere at QPR games has been somewhat subdued this season is not so much the fear of the unknown, as the sheer terror of what the Rangers faithful are all too aware is out there waiting for them.
In the 2010/11 title winning campaign the excitement surrounding Neil Warnock’s fluid title-chasing side hung in the air at every match, and goals were celebrated with great gusto. These days it’s altogether more sedate and the much more defensive attitude of the QPR team, as well as the lack of novelty value in chasing promotion from a league so soon after winning it previously, are certainly both factors. There’s also the added ‘spoilt’ element whereby games against Huddersfield at home and Yeovil away are tough to raise the spirits for after two years of matches against Arsenal and Manchester City.
But a significant other factor is the fear that by returning to the Premier League so soon, with so many of the problems that hamstrung the club on its last visit to the big time still very much in place, Rangers are merely setting themselves up for another minimum nine month spell of misery, weekly defeats, and scrapping just to survive while supporters pay £50 to get in.
Consider the problems that were prevalent the last time Rangers were in the Premier League. The tiny stadium and utterly unfit training ground remain — meaning that any potential new signing is going to have to be tempted in some other way i.e. vague promises about new build projects that haven’t even started yet, so certainly won’t be finished during his time with the club, or, more likely, vast amounts of money. The club’s youth set up is improving but remains miles away from where a Premier League club would need it to be after years of underfunding. The club’s scouting network seems limited. The whole infrastructure of the club, just as it was last time it was in the Premier League, is distinctly Championship.
Chairman Tony Fernandes talks about learning lessons from a haphazard transfer policy that chased ageing, big name shirt sellers to the total detriment of the team spirit and balance of the squad. Indeed, Rangers have made some excellent acquisitions on a budget this year — Charlie Austin and Danny Simpson chief amongst them. But with Harry Redknapp as manager, short term fixes are always going to be the order of the day, every problem cured with another signing, and the recent gratuitous pick up of Yossi Benayoun shows that little, if anything, has changed from last time. Looking at the current team it’s hard to see how anything other than yet another bout of major surgery in the summer transfer window would be required for it to survive.
The club still seems to lack ethos and identity.
So perhaps the atmosphere around the games at the moment is stunted because, while it’s nice to win, each success merely moves Rangers closer to a repeat of the last two seasons, which was like a jalfrezi enema at times. Each defeat, while annoying, actually could spare us further embarrassment down the line.
Perhaps a visit from Bolton Wanderers on Tuesday night is a timely one then, to remind the subdued QPR faithful just how important a swift return to the Premier League, and it’s lashings of television money, really is — even if the R’s go up simply to lose every match and come straight back. Bolton would have stayed up at QPR’s expense in 2011/12 but for two highly controversial Stoke goals against them on the final day of the season, and probably wouldn’t have even needed to go down to the last day had their central midfield pairing of Stuart Holden and Lee Chung-Yong not both suffered season ending injuries before the campaign had even kicked off.
But once out of the top flight the parachute payment time is ticking, particularly for those teams that now find other clubs coming down from the Premier League with twice as much television money and parachute payment as they ever got. Reading, Wigan and QPR are all far better off financially than Bolton, simply for staying in the top division 12 months longer, and another three from the current Premier League will come down minted this summer.
The Trotters have failed to make an immediate return in their first attempt and have been left nursing a debt of £163.8m. Most of that is owed to Eddie Davies, who has shown no inclination to ever call it in, so it’s a headline figure that paints a slightly false picture, but it shows the problem of spending big to stay in the Premier League, and then splashing the parachute money trying to return quickly, and failing on both counts. QPR could easily go the same way.
So while it’s terribly worthy, and probably very accurate, to say that what QPR could really do with is four or five years consolidating in the second tier - getting a training ground built, sorting the academy out, clearing the dead wood from the squad, building the scouting network, putting together a talented young squad that would require minimal work after promotion, compiling a long term plan and ethos — the financial reality probably dictates that the R’s need to go back and feast on the newly found BT riches as soon as possible. The decisions made by Tony Fernandes and his board have created a monster which needs feeding, or it will start devouring itself.
If you’re lacking enthusiasm for the R’s latest promotion push, perhaps a couple of hours on a Tuesday night watching this shell of a Bolton club might make you think differently.
Links >>> http://www.fansnetwork.co.uk/football/queensparkrangers/news/33920/debt-and-fami Profile >>> http://www.fansnetwork.co.uk/football/queensparkrangers/news/33909/a-week-off-to >>> http://www.fansnetwork.co.uk/football/queensparkrangers/news/33910/john-gregory- >>> http://www.fansnetwork.co.uk/football/queensparkrangers/news/33896/durso-returns
Team News: Now here’s a story with a piece missing if ever I heard one — QPR’s ever-present right back Danny Simpson has been sidelined for "a few weeks” with "a fractured back”. A fractured back? A few weeks? Aren’t we usually talking wheelchair basketball careers for that sort of thing. And given Simpson’s previous for extra curricular activity, the cause of said injury is probably also worth some further investigation — come on Danny lad, this is important, put the old chap away for the next few months eh?
Max Ehmer has been recalled from his loan at Carlisle and will cover the back four from the bench with Nedum Onuoha replacing Simpson at right back. Natural full back Michael Harriman cannot be recalled from a season-long deal at Gillingham. Joey Barton remains doubtful with a thigh injury.
Bolton have accident prone keeper Adam Bogdan fit again but will keep faith with accident prone deputy Andy Lonergan instead, despite the seven goals shipped at Reading. Midfielders Mark Davies and Stuart Holden are long term absentees.
Elsewhere: The league’s original plan to cram the whole rest of the season into the month of March fell foul of the lack of hours in the day, and so having settled for playing just 47 games then it’s left them needing to find other dates to conclude the other 642 games we still have left.
That means it’s a night away from self-abuse while sobbing controllably in front of Babestation and another chance to get out in the brisk north westerly gale force hurricane for a midweek round of Championship extravaganza.
Clearly grumpy that the initial plan was foiled, the league has rather cruelly set about packing teams off to opposite ends of the country, where no doubt the volume of traveling support will match the IQ of the average idiot who wants to go to Millwall to watch Sheffield Wednesday on a weeknight, or from Yeovil to Derby, or Charlton to Doncaster, or Ipswich to Leeds, or Blackpool to Reading, or Huddersfield to Bournemouth, or Brighton to Burnley.
I mean come on, is this a reasonable Tuesday night fixture list? Really? Have a bloody heart would you? Huddersfield to Bournemouth and Brighton to Burnley on a Tuesday indeed. Am I the only one that sees a happy solution easily achieved by simply swapping those two around? Bolton coming to QPR isn’t exactly popping out for a pint of milk either. We’ll have to consult with Glenn Hoddle on what sins we’ve all carried out in a previous life to deserve this.
Slightly kinder, while still steadfastly boring, is Blackburn v Barnsley, Birmingham v Leicester and Middlesbrough v The Globetrotters. Udinese are at Nottingham Forest on Thursday, because playing on a Thursday is all continental and that.
So pack up the car, load up the petrol tank, bid farewell to your loved ones, wrap up warm and set off on your 500 mile round trip this Tuesday. Or, you know, stay at home with a loved one with the thermostat turned up and a decent film on.
Referee: Andy D’Urso hasn’t refereed a QPR game since 2010, but after 17 years on the league list he’s been in charge of the R’s more than any other listed official. He denied Neil Warnock’s side a blatant penalty at Nottingham Forest in his last outing with the Super Hoops and has a chequered record with Rangers over the years. For a seemingly never ending case file and his stats from the last couple of seasons please http://www.fansnetwork.co.uk/football/queensparkrangers/news/33896/durso-returns here.
QPR: Two more goals from Charlie Austin against Huddersfield last time out moved him up to 14 for the season in all competitions. Take those strikes away and QPR would have 13 less points and sit outside the play off zone. The problem for the R’s is the next top scorer is Matt Phillips with just three, so goals from midfielders is certainly a pressing concern. That hasn’t mattered so far, because the R’s have been so good in defence. Nahki Wells’ equaliser here a week and a half ago was only the fifth Rangers have conceded at home all season, and the first in the second half of a game — only Burnley on eight can hold a candle to that record. Their overall record of 16 goals conceded, and 14 clean sheets kept, are both division leading stats. More encouraging still is a run of three successive league wins, spoilt slightly by a 4-0 cup defeat at Everton. It’s the first time Rangers have won three on the spin since September and has lifted them back above Burnley into second prior to the Clarets visiting Loftus Road on Saturday. Sadly, Leicester playing at the weekend gave the Foxes a chance to move eight points clear at the top of the table, albeit having played a game more.
Bolton: Wanderers are in a bit of a state, and can be found as long as 5/1 to win here on Tuesday. They’ve won just two of the last ten league games to drop back down to eighteenth, just four points above the relegation zone. They conceded seven at Reading in their last away match, and five at Reading in the road game before that — 12 in two games compared to the 16 QPR have conceded across the entire season. Nevertheless, they have won four times away from home in the league this season (Birmingham, Bournemouth, Watford, Derby) which is a record bettered only by Brighton and Birmingham (both five) outside the play off zone and is the same as fifth placed Nottingham Forest. Having said that, they’ve lost four of their last five away from the Reebok Stadium.
Betting: Professional odds compiler Owen Goulding says…
"QPR return to action after what seems an eternity for their last match before the transfer window closes. Little business has been done so far but Harry Redknapp has been testing his car window can cope with the frenetic up and down motion it will no doubt be performing on Friday and Kevin Bond has been spied washing his motor at the training ground in eager anticipation. Meanwhile, Rangers prepare for the visit of a terribly out of sort Bolton side, as they bid to keep on the coat tails of a runaway Leicester side.
"Bolton have conceded a whopping twelve goals in their last two Championship away games, a startling statistic when you consider that amounts to 66% of the total goals QPR have managed to score at home all season. There is no doubting Bolton are in a relegation scrap and despite a narrow defeat to an under-strength Cardiff side in the FA Cup bringing back some respectability at the weekend, if QPR are truly promotion contenders, this is the sort of game they should be winning without too much trouble.
"Bolton's problem lies squarely with their immobile defence. Zat Knight, Matt Mills, Alex Baptiste, - it’s a who's who of footballers who turn slower than milk. The last thing they need is to come across a player with the excellent movement of Charlie Austin. The big worry for QPR is Bolton struggle to cope with any high tempo game played against them. When the game is slowed down, they can be more effective. Unfortunately for QPR, this is a style of play that has been all too apparent this season.
"The match prices of roughly 4/6 QPR don't interest me but a very interesting statistic shines through which is tied in with the immobile Bolton defence I previously mentioned, and that is the in three of their last five away games, Bolton have conceded a penalty to the opposition. With the trickery of Niko Kranjcar and the movement of Austin, this seems a likely proposition again come Tuesday. With Andy D'Urso holding the whistle and having awarded FOUR penalties in his last three Championship matches alone, we need to be getting involved. My bet of the match is a penalty to be awarded at 3/1 with Paddy Power. With Charlie Austin so deadly from the spot, I will also be having a bet on QPR to score a penalty at 13/2 with the same firm."
Recommended Bets: QPR v Bolton - A Penalty to be Awarded - YES 3/1 (Paddy Power)
QPR v Bolton - QPR To Score A Penalty - 13/2 (Paddy Power)
Prediction: Reigning Prediction League champion Mase says…
"After a weekend off (otherwise known as "the next round of the FA Cup"), Rangers return to action under the floodlights to face Clive's late tips for a promotion surge, the Champions Elect. On paper, I can see what could lead one to the conclusion that Bolton are capable of making a splash at this level. The positive appointment of Promoter of Youth and Organiser of Defences Dougie Freedman, coupled with the surging run they went on (started only a couple of weeks too late to reach the playoffs) at the end of last season seemed to signal an indication of what one could expect this time.
"Unfortunately, it has not quite turned out that way and Bolton find themselves looking over their shoulders and desperately trying to avoid the same fate that Southampton, Forest, Norwich, Portsmouth, Man City, both Sheffield clubs, and we ourselves have faced in the quite recent past - a stint outside the top two divisions having not long since been in the Premier League. They should have more than enough about them to achieve that, but boy are they underperforming. I am sure their fans would point to injuries to key players and that is fair enough, but from what I have seen (at 1am on a Sunday morning, listening to Steve Claridge and Manish - I am old enough to know better) - they have appeared gutless as well as luckless at times.
"Despite our squad not having been added to this window, nor have we (yet) lost anyone. I think we will be up for this one after our break and am hopeful of our recent string of successes being prolonged another game.”
Mase’s Prediction: QPR 2-0 Bolton. First scorer — Charlie Austin
LFW Prediction: QPR 3 Bolton 0. First Scorer — Charlie Austin
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