Draw the safe bet as QPR head for Ipswich - betting

The LFW betting pundits return after their Christmas break and both of them fancy a draw as QPR head to Ipswich.

Andy Hillman

A belated happy New Year to all of you, as this is my first betting column of 2014. Fingers crossed that I can keep up some of the results I was getting in the latter stages of 2013. As always, any comments, observations or abuse, holla at me...

NAP of the week - Cardiff to beat West Ham @ 18/19

Backing West Ham to lose isn’t exactly the most imaginative of bets at the moment, but Cardiff to win at Evens is frightening value. Just to recap, for those not keeping score - West Ham have conceded 22 in their last six games, and have only won a single game in their last ten, the improbable Capital Cup win against Spurs. Seven of those ten games have been defeats. Evens on them losing again you say? Thank you very much...

QPR related bet - Ipswich vs QPR - draw @ 23/10

Ipswich are one of those teams that if you asked a Premier League armchair supporter where (s)he thought they were in the league, they would say ‘mid-table’. So they might be surprised to find Ipswich currently in the playoffs, unbeaten in their last nine. They’re not quite on the Derby level of runs though - they’ve drawn five of their last six, including their last three in a row. QPR are, depending on your outlook, doing reasonably well thank you very much, or one bad result from a crisis and relegation this season. The truth is probably somewhere in-between, and the facts are that we are still ridiculously miserly in terms of conceding goals - we’ve still got the best defensive record in the league. So QPR who don’t score many and concede even less, against an Ipswich side that has drawn five of their last six - I think we can all see where this is going...

Fulham vs Sunderland - Sunderland win @ 13/5

Two teams, both with new managers, but possibly contrasting fortunes at present. Gus Poyet has arrested the slide at Sunderland - only one defeat in eight, and playing some good football. Fulham, whilst better than they were under Jol, are still pissing goals for fun - 17 in their last six, including four against Man City and Everton, and an improbable six against Hull. A Sunderland away win at 13/5 just looks too big to ignore, and offers a fantastic trading opportunity if nothing less. Look to cash out if Sunderland are one up at half time.

Short odds away double - Chelsea (vs Hull ) & Arsenal (vs Villa) to both win @ 5/2

Each of these on their own would be probably too short to back, but as a pair look quite good - Hull, despite being an surprisingly obstinate bunch under Steve and Alex Bruce, have only won one of their last seven in the league - the Fulham debacle. Chelsea have won four on the spin, and have four clean sheets in five, so I expect a narrow away win. Arsenal may have a striker crisis, but they have still won their last four on the spin, and travel to a Villa side who are set up to be better away from home - and the stats back this up, they’ve only scored seven times at home in the league. Another low scoring away win, and the double brings home a nice 5/2 shot.

Roma vs Genoa - Roma to Win to nil @ 13/10

Roma have finally lost in the league at the eighteenth time of asking, and are having a slight wobble after winning their first 11 games in a row, but they still have the best home defensive record in Europe - only two goals conceded at home. Genoa have only won once in their last six games and are not particularly good travellers away from home - a tight, but comfortable home win to nil for Roma beckons...

Previous Winners:

Roma vs Bologna - Roma win to Nil @ 7/5 — 27/09/13

The Pro

From an odds compiler's point of view, January is a minefield. Injuries, postponements, suspensions and transfers are all rife during this period. Reacting quickly to team news/transfer news is the key to a profit but it's also very important not to overreact. My previews for the next few weeks will be short and sweet as its hard to asses a game days in advance when so much can change in the hours leading up to kick off.

Ipswich v QPR is a prime example and I will suggest a bet based on the information I have now (Thursday evening), which by the time you read this, may have changed considerably. As it stands, both teams have relatively 'fully fit' (I use that term loosely where QPR are concerned) squads to choose from. Ipswich have been going about their business quietly and are a strong hard-working side. They possess little flair but a great work ethic and as such are extremely hard to beat. That said they are finding it hard to win of late and in fact have drawn five of their last six games. QPR are still looking very unconvincing but have drawn 41.6% of all their away games this season. With Ipswich 's overall draw percentage for the season sitting at 37.5%, I'm looking at the draw price here. Corals are 23/10 which represents a 30.3% chance. They seem to have underestimated its chances. My bet for this match is therefore…"

Recommended Bet: Ipswich v QPR - Draw - 23/10 (Coral)

Elsewhere my bet of the weekend comes at the Britannia where Liverpool look nailed on to defeat Stoke. Stoke will be missing on loan Assaidi against his parent club, and in truth he has single-handedly been keeping them in games of late. Stoke have taken a few hits against sharp moving forwards of late (Remy spring to mind) and this is in no part due to them having to play Marc Wilson at centre half. Suarez could have a field day here and I can see Liverpool winning comfortably.

Bet of Weekend: Stoke v Liverpool - Suarez to score anytime and Liverpool to win - 7/5 Bwin.

Big Price goalscorers:

James Tavernier - Rotherham v Crewe 16/1 Anytime - (Coral)

Steven Caulker - Cardiffv West Ham 16/1 Anytime (Bwin)

Harlee Dean - Brentford v Port Vale - 16/1 Anytime (Coral)

Previous Winners:

Joey Barton to score at any time vs Middlesbrough 4/1 (William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfred, Skybet), 27/09/13

Tweet @loftforwords, @andy_hillman

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