Narrow QPR win could hold the key to cash again - betting

Just the won winner for our pundits last week - albeit at 9/5 - but they're back this week looking to make amends ahead of QPR's trip to Blackpool.

Andy Hillman

A pretty poor week for me relatively speaking last time out, with only the Man Utd ‘not to win’ bet coming in at good odds of 9/5. Other bets like QPR to win and both teams to score vs Blackburn and Chelsea to beat Stoke with a -1 handicap hilariously never even came close to coming in.

NAP of the Week: Charlton vs Derby - Derby to win @ 5/4

Derby have won five on the spin since losing to QPR, which has catapulted them up to fourth, and top of the form table. They’ve just broken the 40 goal mark for the season, nearly twice what QPR have managed. Charlton on the other hand, sit second bottom in the form table, with one win in their last six, hovering one place above the relegation zone. Better than Evens for Steve McClaren to make it six on the spin is a huge price.

QPR Related Bet: Blackpool vs QPR - QPR to win 1-0 @ 13/2

Interesting set of statistics for this one - Blackpool have only lost once at home all season, however they have only won two of their last six at Bloomfield Road. Blackpool always conjures up images of cavalier attacking football, but they have only scored one goal more than QPR this season, and have the fourth best defensive record in the league (a full 11 goals more porous than QPR mind...). QPR as we all know don’t score many, but concede even less. The balance of this game could rest on two key factors - Blackpool’s lengthy suspension list, and Stuart Atwell’s random decision generator. The suspension list tips the balance into QPR’s favour, but the Atwell factor not so much tips things, as throws the game up in the air dramatically, like a child who has landed on Mayfair with a hotel.

Premiership Shorts:

Man City vs Arsenal - City to win @ 5/6

I’m enjoying Arsenal at the top of the table as much as the next guy - breath of fresh air, football played the right way, financially sound and all that cliché ridden nonsense - but Man City at home are a different proposition entirely. Not that you need reminding, but Man City have won all seven league games at home, scoring 29, conceding just two. And that included results against Everton, Spurs, Newcastle and Man Utd - not fodder. Arsenal actually have the best away record in the league, but Man City are too good at home.

Aston Villa vs Man Utd - Utd to win @ 4/5

As much as I’m enjoying Arsenal at the top, I’m enjoying Man Utd struggling even more. They’re currently closer to the relegation zone that the title at the moment, and look absolutely bereft of ideas. But, unfortunately for Villa, they hold an Indian sign over them, winning their last five meetings and not losing at Villa park for nearly 15 years. Truth be told, Villa would have more chance if this game was at Old Trafford, they are a counter attacking side that are better away from home, and United seem paralysed by expectation at home.

Newcastle vs Southampton - Newcastle win @ 7/5

I’m genuinely not sure why the odds on this game are as close as they are - Newcastle are only narrow favourites with some bookmakers despite all the evidence to the contrary - five wins in their last six making them top of the Premier League form table, and a formidable home record beating Chelsea and holding Man City and Liverpool to draws already. Southampton may have had a pig of a run of fixtures, but one win in seven, including four defeats, does not breed confidence., and confidence is vital - look at Crystal Palace and Man Utd as examples of what confidence or lack thereof can do.

Previous Winners:

Roma vs Bologna - Roma win to Nil @ 7/5 — 27/09/13

The Pro

QPR travel to Blackpool looking to put right their last away trip up north. An all-round lacklustre performance at the Keepmoat led to a late winner for Doncaster and Harry Redknapp will be looking for a lot more from his troops. QPR's away form has been poor since Yeovil though, failing to win any of their last five away games.

Blackpool on the other hand, have seemingly been on a mission to change the term 'early bath' simply to 'bath' as they have accumulated five red cards in their last two games alone. Discipline is a definite concern for the Tangerines and that makes this week's midlfield clash of Barton v Ferguson all the more interesting. In truth, if you look past their recent ill-disciplined performances, Blackpool boast a very decent home record, taking 18 of a possible 27 points. Six of the nine teams who have travelled to Bloomfield Road have also failed to score, so don’t kid yourself into thinking this will be an easy match. Fuller and Bishop will be missing, with the unpredictable Fuller especially a big loss.

QPR away games have averaged 1.77 goals per game, and Blackpool home games have averaged 2.33 goals per game, so this is likely to be a low scoring affair. At an average of 2.05 goals per game taking both into account, the under 2.5 goals price should equate to around 4/7, however the market is currently trading at around 8/11 so it is apparent the number of goals for this game is being slightly over-estimated by the bookmakers. However, with so many teams drawing a blank on their travels to Bloomfield Road and Blackpool missing one of their most likely goal sources in Fuller, it looks like being a very low scoring affair. Therefore my recommended bet for this game is going to be Under 1.5 goals at 12/5 (Boylesports)

Elsewhere, my bet of the weekend comes in the Premier League. I am surprised to see prices as big as they are on Tottenham to beat Liverpool this week. Liverpool have only won two games away from home all season. They were comprehensively beaten at Hull City last time they went on their travels and now they have to cope with the loss of Steven Gerrard. Gerrard has been going quietly about his business this year whilst Suarez takes all the headlines. He will be a big miss. Tottenham are not without their problems either, with Vertonghen out for the foreseeable, but with Danny Rose returning to full fitness, this should sort the left back position out. Spurs have been unconvincing in truth at home this season, but were very unlucky not to beat Man United last time. You can’t ignore the fact Liverpool have the superb Suarez as their main weapon, but the price of 6/4 on Tottenham definitely seems on the big side to me against a Gerrard and Sturridge-less Liverpool.

Bet of Weekend: Tottenham to beat Liverpool - 6/4 (general)

And in addition Carlisle v Tranmere - Carlisle to win 6/5 (William Hill/Ladbrokes)
Tranmere are without Ian Goodison who is a big loss.

Elsewhere, big price goal scorers for this week are:

Phil Jagielka - Anytime Scorer - Everton v Fulham (12/1 Ladbrokes)

James Collins - Anytime Scorer - WHU v Sunderland (13/1 VCBet)

Sean O Hanlon - Anytime Scorer - Carlisle v Tranmere (20/1 Coral)

Previous Winners:

Swindon v Carlisle - Sean O Hanlon - 16/1 Anytime (Coral/Hills) 29/11/13

Joey Barton to score at any time vs Middlesbrough 4/1 (William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfred, Skybet), 27/09/13

Tweet @andy_hillman

Pictures — Action Images

What to read next: