QPR have made an excellent start to life back in the Championship, but while the results have been strong the performances have been in decline. So is it all about the final score?
Championship >>> Wednesday September 18, 2013 >>> Kick Off 19.45 >>> Loftus Road, London, W12
Going through an entire 38 game league season and only winning four times takes some doing. Even if you were setting out to deliberately exit the division at the earliest possible opportunity, you’d still find the odd goal flying in off somebody’s backside or an equally inept opponent similarly adept at gifting goals and points. Hell, even that wretched Swindon Town team of 1993/94 won five Premier League games — although QPR rather charitably contributed two of those.
Such failure takes some getting over. There are the logistical and financial pressures it brings, and QPR have had to move on almost two full teams of players this summer to bring some semblance of manageability to the balance sheet, but there are other less tangible things like mood and momentum that need to be addressed as well. Football players are human, and turning up to work every week only to lose the match on the Saturday can become a self-perpetuating thing as confidence and belief drains away and factions and arguments start to brew.
In 2011/12 Wolves and Blackburn were both relegated from the Premier League in similarly distressed states as QPR a year later. Rovers were consumed by an ownership scandal and some of the fiercest supporter protests — and a chicken on the field wearing a Blackburn scarf — football in this country has seen while Wolves failed to build on first season survival, and then rather botched the job of replacing Mick McCarthy as manager when they decided to terminate his employment. Back in the second tier the rot wasn’t that easy to root out — Wolves were relegated again, Blackburn almost went with them.
Given the state of Queens Park Rangers, and the attitude of large chunks of its playing squad to their profession, the R’s looked potentially ripe for a similar fate this season. For much of the summer it wasn’t even certain whether Harry Redknapp would be staying on as manager, and the club rather bumbled along through June with the manager coincidentally finding Sky Sports News cameras on golf courses to moan into about not being allowed to bring in his own players while the situation upstairs - with a CEO more experienced in venues than the teams that play in them and a chairman rarely able to spend three consecutive days working at QPR trying to run things — continued.
So it was absolutely imperative that QPR made a reasonable start to the campaign. August looked really tough on paper — not only because all the opponents apart from Sheff Wed had been tipped in some quarter for promotion pushes of their own, but also because the games would be played while the frantic wheeling and dealing of the transfer window was still in full swing — and to come through that unbeaten and joint top of the division has been nothing short of remarkable. There’s much hand wafting and talk of excessive finance and a fabulous team on paper when it comes to discussion of QPR in the media this season, but what has gone on so far as admirable and wholly unexpected in my opinion.
So it seems rather churlish, and wholly ungrateful, for QPR supporters to be complaining about the quality of the team’s performances. I did crack a smile when a large gent standing at the urinal in the South Africa Road stand post Birmingham on Saturday announced to nobody in particular that "a 2-0 would be nice” but that sentiment has grown into quite a debate around the forums and social networks this week. Is the result all that matters?
Medium and long term, no it’s not. Sustainable success in modern football, where a tiny clutch of clubs hold the vast majority of the resources, is achieved by making very firm decisions about things like ethos, style of play and systems. Are you looking abroad for players? Are you going to loan in youngsters from Premier League teams? Are you going to develop your own youngsters? Are you going to scout the lower leagues? Are you a selling club? Are you a long ball team? Are you going to pass the ball to death? Five man midfields or big target men?
The clubs that are doing well in this country outside the wealthy elite — and our visitors on Wednesday Brighton fit into this as well — have very well established ideas about all of this. Swansea are the prime case study but they’re not alone. Once you’re set on all these things it makes the changeover of managers so much easier because you can target a specific type of boss similar to the one you’ve just lost. That in turn makes transfer windows easier, because you’re not going to be frantically scrambling around for a dozen new players completely different to the 12 you bought six months ago to fit a new style of a new manager.
Swansea have moved on ahead of QPR to League Cup success and European football having actually finished behind the R’s in the Championship just three seasons ago. QPR have worked themselves into a dreadful mess in the meantime. See how Swansea appoint managers with very similar continental characteristics and playing ideals as their predecessors, and then laugh as QPR move from Luigi De Canio to Iain Dowie to Paulo Sousa to Jim Magilton to Paul Hart and then to Neil Warnock. You’ve got attacking managers, defensive managers, managers who like constant possession, managers who like to sit deep and counter, managers who play short and managers who play long — and QPR had them all inside two years. How are QPR meant to breed a culture and ideal through a youth set up, or a scouting structure, when they’re carrying on like that?
You could of course say that despite it all, Rangers were promoted just like Swansea at the end of that sequence but that success was not sustainable as we soon discovered. Relying on the brilliant performance of one manager, or throwing money at things (unless we’re talking a Chelsea or Man City level of money) will always catch up with a club like Rangers sooner or later.
So no, it’s not all about results medium to long term. And even short term, QPR will not win many Championship games at all this season churning out performances like the disjointed dirge they served up on Saturday. They say it’s a good team that can play badly and win and that’s certainly true, but usually the good team plays well for six or seven weeks and then scrapes a result on a rare off day. It’s not a sign of a good team to play badly every week and scrape a result.
But consider this for the moment. On September 22 last season Wolves, with the much maligned Stale Solbakken still in charge, won 2-0 at Peterborough to take their record in the Championship to four wins, one draw and one defeat. Three games later that had stretched to six wins one draw and two defeats. They would only win eight, and lose 21, of their remaining fixtures and ended up second bottom of the league.
For now, QPR is still a ship that needs steadying before a new course can be set. Let’s just keep finding a way to put those points on the board, and worry about aesthetics further down the line.
Links >>> http://www.fansnetwork.co.uk/football/queensparkrangers/news/32847/garcia-brings Focus >>> http://www.fansnetwork.co.uk/football/queensparkrangers/news/32845/doing-it-the- >>> http://www.fansnetwork.co.uk/football/queensparkrangers/news/32834/memories-of-d >>> http://www.fansnetwork.co.uk/football/queensparkrangers/news/32833/madley-gets-f
Gareth Ainsworth celebrates an early opening goal for Gary Waddock’s QPR side against Brighton the last time these sides met at Loftus Road in 2006. Kevin Gallen was sent off after half time and Rangers were unable to hold on against Mark McGhee’s relegation-haunted Albion who equalised ten minutes from time with a Marcus Bignot own goal.
Team News: A disjointed performance on Saturday, particularly when playing a 4-4-2 system in the first half, will surely necessitate changes to the QPR starting line up for this one. Harry Redknapp has injury doubts over attacking duo Andy Johnson and Junior Hoilett, and needs to play a five man midfield system if he’s to get the best out of Tottenham loanee Tom Carroll. He must also decide whether Benoit Assou Ekotto, unused sub at the weekend, and Niko Kranjcar, who came through an hour of a reserve match on Monday, are fit to be involved yet.
Brighton have been hit by a series of injuries and suspensions to their most influential attacking players. Leonardo Ulloa would have been their main threat in this game but got himself sent off in a goalless draw at Reading on Sunday and now sits out with suspension. That’s not ideal with the team’s other outstanding player Liam Bridcutt also doubtful and Craig Mackail-Smith still some four weeks away from a return. Will Hoskins is injured as well which leaves Oscar Garcia little choice but to return Ashley Barnes to the attack immediately following his own recovery from injury.
Elsewhere: QPR’s game with Brighton and Reading at home to Leeds were both bumped back to Wednesday because the Royals and Seagulls met on Sunday in the live Sky match. That meant the four sides were able to sit back and take in almost a full programme of action on Tuesday night and know exactly where a positive result will take them on the fledgling league table tonight.
Leicester are the new Championship leaders after goals from Lloyd Dyer and David Nugent gave them a 2-1 home success over Blackburn. They’re ahead of QPR on goals scored having played a game more. Blackpool missed the chance to open up a three point gap at the top when they lost 3-1 at struggling Millwall. The Lions, thrashed 5-1 by Derby at the weekend, hadn’t won this season and fell behind to Tom Ince’s goal tonight but rallied to secure a vital three points and give manager Steve Lomas a stay of execution.
Nottingham Forest also missed a chance to make up ground and stay fifth with 14 points after a 2-2 home draw with Middlesbrough for whom former QPR man Emmanuel Ledesma was sent off late having only come on as a seventy seventh minute substitute. It could have been worse for Billy Davies’ men who trailed 2-0 until deep into the second half. Burnley also have 14 points after an easy 3-0 home win against struggling Birmingham and Watford complete the play off picture thanks to their 2-1 home success against Doncaster.
Down at the bottom Millwall’s win lifts them clear of the bottom three and plonks LFW’s pre-season tip for promotion Bolton onto the bottom of the pile, without a win in the league at all and held 2-2 by Derby at the Reebok Stadium tonight. Barnsley lost 1-0 at Bournemouth and Yeovil 2-1 at Ipswich to complete the relegation places at this early stage.
Huddersfield are up to ninth after a 2-1 home win against Charlton who are seventeenth.
Referee: Being away from the Championship for a couple of years means there will be a few newbie referees kicking around this season who we haven’t seen before, and on Tuesday night we meet one of them in Andrew Madley. He’s never had a Brighton game either in his two seasons on the list so far. His brother Robert is also on the league list and is best known for sending three players off on his Premier League debut at Southampton v West Brom last season. For Andy Madley’s stats please http://www.fansnetwork.co.uk/football/queensparkrangers/news/32833/madley-gets-f here.
QPR: Just like their last Championship campaign in 2010/11, Rangers are breaking records by the week at the moment. The 1-0 success against Birmingham was a club record fourth consecutive win by that score, and stretched the time without conceding a goal in the league to four and a half games. The R’s haven’t conceded a goal at all when Richard Dunne has been on the field this season — Saturday’s LFW Man of the Match has made five appearances so far — and no team in the Football League has conceded as few as the two goals Rangers have shipped so far. A win here would be the best series of victories achieved since the memorable seven straight wins achieved by Ian Holloway’s newly promoted R’s in 2004/05 — a run that included a victory at Brighton.
Brighton: Albion haven’t won in nine attempts on this ground dating back to 1957 but after a nervy start with successive defeats they’re now unbeaten in four matches (won two, drawn two) and have conceded a single goal in that sequence. Argentinean striker Leonardo Ulluo is the Championship’s joint top scorer with four goals but is out suspended for this one. Last season Brighton won eight, drew nine and lost only six away from home in the entire campaign — only Charlton could match that defeats record with champions Cardiff losing seven and second placed Hull beaten nine times on the road.
Betting: Professional odds compiler Owen Goulding tells us…
"QPR face their second home game in five days against Brighton hoping for a similar outcome but hopefully a better performance than that against Birmingham. A scrappy 1-0 win saw Rangers stay in second place in the Championship and continue their unbeaten start to the season.
"Having watched a bit of Brighton in recent weeks, I was worried for Rangers having to cope with Jose Ulloa who has impressed me a lot this season with his movement and eye for goal, but this worry has been laid to rest as he stupidly got himself sent off at the weekend and will therefore miss this game through suspension.
"What does that leave Rangers to face? Brighton have a decent squad on paper and would hope to be challenging for a play-off place at the very least come the end of the season. They are a mix of youth and experience, and a full strength Brighton side is a decent proposition at this level. They have had a number of injury issues recently, and these with key players. Liam Bridcutt - one of the best players in the Championship last season - is back in training after a lay-off and will be hoping to be involved here. Mackail-Smith is a big miss and expected to be out for another four weeks at least so with Ulloa suspended, the return to fitness of Ashley Barnes has come at just the right time for the Seagulls. Brighton made a few good signings in the transfer window and Keith Andrews, Craig Conway and Stephen Ward bring with them a host of experience that will test QPR's unbeaten record to the full.
"With an average of only two goals a game for matches involving these two clubs so far this season, a low scoring tight affair would seem on the cards and I can certainly see this one being cagey. A 1-0 victory for QPR is becoming a common theme this season, and Ladbrokes offering of 7/1 on this outcome appeals, but Brighton are hard to break down as are Rangers. So my recommended bet for this match is Under 1.5 total goals in the game - at 5/2 (Ladbrokes,BetVictor,Boylesports).
"Happy punting.”
Prediction: Reigning Prediction League champion Mase tells us…
"Perhaps I should listen to my cousin more often, or learn from history.
"With a club record (apparently) fourth successive 1-0 win behind us, it would be the obvious choice to go for another one in the Prediction League. We seem to be doing just enough at the moment, and had Brighton had their full first XI available to them I think our unbeaten start could be threatened. My concern is that we are rather devoid of options up front and they have a canny and experienced backline to nullify us. Missing Ulloa after his brain freeze at the weekend, as well as Hoskins and Mackail-Smith, will certainly hamper them. That said, Ashley Barnes looked a useful deputy up front, but he is coming back from injury so whether he can do it for the full 90 minutes remains to be seen.
"It promises to be a good evening under the lights; hopefully our ongoing successes (however they are achieved) are imbuing a sense of confidence in the squad. I think Brighton will be a step up in class from what we've faced recently, certainly over Birmingham, and could bring a halt to our 1-0 run. I can see this one being extremely tight, with a draw the most likely outcome. Let's hope we can make it five in a row instead.”
Mase’s Predicton: QPR 1 Brighton 1 Scorer: Austin
LFW Prediction: QPR 2 Brighton 0 First Scorer: Austin
Tweet @loftforwords
Pictures — Action Images