QPR face two quick-fire Premiership fixtures this weekend, one winnable the other less so, but it’s January that Neil Warnock has banked on to keep his team in the Premiership and from Tuesday the talking must stop.
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Neil Warnock has always liked to talk. For most of his career, little of what he said was particularly complimentary to anybody.
Referees were obvious targets, and he would take to the Sunday league pitches around his native Sheffield whistle in hand to prove that he could do a better job, but he would just as regularly rebel against the traditional management cliques and unions to lay into his opposite numbers as well. It would be a fair assumption that Stan Ternant and Gary Megson are not regulars at Warnock family gatherings and functions. His own players weren’t exactly safe either, clips of dressing room dressing downs for Huddersfield and Sheffield United can be viewed on You Tube once the kids have been packed off to bed.
These days Warnock is a comically mellow figure. In the face of a refereeing display at Swansea on Tuesday night that would once upon a time have seen him parked in the stand after 15 minutes and banned from the touchline for at least three games thereafter he laughed it off and said at least Lee Probert had been “consistent.” When his exceptionally well paid team then contrived to produce two foul throw ins he picked up the ball and demonstrated the technique himself rather than tearing them a new arse.
Warnock, rarely a respecter of reputations, has adopted a “just happy to be here” mantra throughout QPR’s first Premiership season in 15 years and has shown his teeth only once, at a supporter who posted his team for the Blackburn match on an internet message board. He has reassured any doubters that any problems with the team would be corrected during the January transfer window. That window swings open on Tuesday, after two more matches this weekend, and it’s then that the talking must stop.
The QPR manager has been left with little option but to rely on the January sales. Having worked a minor miracle to turn the QPR disaster into a Premiership promotion within 18 months of arriving he then found an infuriating situation where Flavio Briatore and Bernie Ecclestone wanted to sell the club and were not willing to give him a single penny to strengthen his squad while they tried to find a buyer. Given our current league position and results it really doesn’t bare thinking about how bad things would be had we not scrambled Tony Fernandes through the door when we did, but even then only ten days remained in which to build a side capable of competing and the club did wonderfully well to get Shaun Wright-Phillips, Joey Barton, Luke Young, Armand Traore and Anton Ferdinand into the squad in time.
That wasn’t ideal, and neither is relying on 28 days of transfer activity in January to secure your survival. Firstly, as Gary Waddock discovered at Rangers, consistently undermining the players you already have by stating that you’re looking to replace half of them at the first opportunity does not breed confidence or results – QPR have won just one of eight heading into the transfer window, that could be one of ten by Tuesday. Secondly, January is not a month where value is regularly found. January is a month where our opposition this weekend Arsenal paid £15m for Andrei Arshavin, roughly three times what he’s actually worth, and Chelsea paid £50m for Fernando Torres, roughly 50 times what he’s actually worth.
I’ve heard transfer deadline day described as the equivalent of waiting in the canteen until 30 seconds before it closes and then rushing up to the counter and to pay £20 for a Pot Noodle. In January it’s like paying £40. Players available in January are available for a reason, and if they’re not available then clubs will only sell if the offer is outrageous – Andy Carroll. If the reason for their availability isn’t imminent contract expiry then it’s rarely a positive element of their make up. Warnock needs to pick through this reject bucket and find enough talent to keep his team in the Premiership – that he’s revised his estimation from “four or five new faces” to “a couple of signings and a couple of loans” in recent weeks hints that it’s not going to be as easy as he hoped.
QPR need a centre half and a left back for a start. Anton Ferdinand and Danny Gabbidon is a questionable partnership when they are both fit to take the field and when they’re not we’re quickly into barrel scrapings. Armand Traore has impressed since arriving from Arsenal but the growing feeling, one that I agree with, is that he’d be better utilised at left wing than left back. Either way, he’s about to jet off for the African Nations Cup playing for a Senegal team that stands an excellent chance of making the final and therefore being away for the full four weeks.
Rangers also need a central midfield player to go alongside Alejandro Faurlin. Joey Barton has struggled there in recent games and has played his best football over the past two years as a right sided player where he has more time on the ball and can deliver dangerous crosses into the box. Shaun Derry has performed admirably, but looked out of his depth in several games against better teams. If such a player can be found he’d quickly need to strike up a partnership with Faurlin and develop and understanding with him pretty much overnight – another issue of January transfer window activity.
And they need a centre forward. Not necessarily a goal scoring centre forward although that would certainly help, but somebody who is able to fill the Heidar Helguson hold up and lay it role as well as the ageing Icelandic international can do. Kenwyne Jones has been mentioned, and he’d be ideal. If Rangers are to return to the 4-2-3-1 formation that served them well last season and worked well in the second half at Swansea then they probably need another attacker, a genuine finisher, to play off that lone striker as well. Adel Taarabt is playing well but cannot be relied upon, DJ Campbell’s stock seems to be at an all time low despite his lack of opportunities, and Jay Bothroyd must now battle the mindless boo-boys as well as his own mediocre form. To further complicate the situation The Times and The Guardian, in assessing each club’s needs, reckon 13 other Premiership sides are also in “desperate” need of a striker.
So four or five players required, mostly right down the spine of the team. It’s a tall order. Warnock has piled his chips high on January and is about to spin the wheel.
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Team News: Shaun Wright-Phillips has recovered from the knock that kept him out of the starting 11 at Swansea but Neil Warnock must decide if the out of form winger is worth a recall. If he is, then Adel Taarabt’s place in the team will be threatened despite man of the match plaudits in his first start since October on Tuesday. Problems persist in defence where Anton Ferdinand is unlikely to recover in time to play.
Theo Walcott missed the home draw with Wolves earlier this week through illness but is expected to be available for the Gunners. Their main problems are at full back where Kieran Gibbs, Johan Djourou and Carl Jenkinson are all long term absentees.
Elsewhere: It’s another football first this holiday weekend as Sky and ESPN prepare to screen at least one top flight match every day for six days – never been done before. That begins this evening with Liverpool v Newcastle at Anfield, a chance for musical montages of famous seven goal thrillers from years gone by if ever I saw one. Then on Saturday lunchtime Manchester United are beating Blackburn at Old Trafford.
We share the 3pm kick offs on New Year’s Eve with six other fixtures. At the bottom there’s a six pointer between Bolton and Wolves while fellow strugglers Wigan go to Stoke where they won to seal their Premiership safety on the final day of last season. Swansea host Tottenham in an attractive looking fixture while Norwich will be confident of seeing a tremendous 2011 out with a home win against notoriously poor travellers Fulham. Chelsea host Aston Villa in the remaining game.
Two games on Sunday starting with West Brom v Everton and finishing with Sunderland v Man City – incidentally Sunderland have averaged more points in December than the league leaders. Then there is another full programme stretching from Monday to Wednesday which we shall examine in more detail in our look ahead to the Norwich home game which should, God and liver willing, be online late on Sunday.
Referee: Martin Atkinson again would you believe, the fourth occasion he’s refereed QPR in the first 19 fixtures of this Premiership season. The previous three have all been at Loftus Road, defeats to Bolton and Man City and a draw with West Brom where the R’s had a goal incorrectly disallowed for offside. I feel like I see him almost as much as my other half at the moment. A full case file, on Atkinson not my other half, is available here.
Arsenal: I know producing stats “since the Premiership began” is a hateful, Richard Keys-type thing to do, but you may forgive me this one from LFW regular Alan Simpson. Arsenal have won just 13% of their Premiership games against QPR, their worst win percentage against any opponent in the Premiership era. As you may have noticed from our history section this week, or remember from the time, the stats for this game are skewed somewhat by a spate of 0-0 draws between the two sides. Four consecutive fixtures finished goalless between 1991 and 1994 and seven of the last 20 games have finished 0-0 between these two sides. Offer me that score on Saturday and see how eagerly I snatch it and run away laughing. Obviously Robin Van Persie is the chief threat to that scoreline on Saturday, he needs two goals to equal Alan Shearer’s record of 36 Premiership goals in a calendar year, but their 1-1 draw against Wolves on Tuesday was the fourth consecutive home game they have scored one goal or less in. That run includes draws with not only Wolves, but lowly Fulham as well, which should give the R’s hope. Arsenal have won all six home games in which Van Persie has scored this season, but only won two of the six in which he’s failed to register. Liverpool and Man City are the only sides to win here in the league this season having said that. Arsenal have taken 26 points from their last 12 matches, title form if maintained across an entire campaign.
QPR: Rangers meanwhile are in relegation form – one win from eight, ten points from a possible 39. The draw at Swansea ended a run of three straight defeats but Jamie Mackie has two goals in two games and Heidar Helguson seven in ten as he aims to celebrate a new one year contract extension signed this week. QPR have only lost one league game to Arsenal in the Premiership era. The R’s have a creditable three away wins to their name already this season, at Stoke, Wolves and Everton, compared to a solitary victory at Loftus Road against Chelsea.
Betting: Professional odds compiler Owen Goulding says…
Rangers face the short trip across London for an encounter with a Gunners team smarting from a poor draw at home to Wolves a few days previous. I don't want to be the prophet of doom and predict a bad away day but I feel we are going to end the year as we started it, with an away defeat. Looking back to that defeat which started the year - a 1-0 loss at Carrow Road back in those Championship days, (which seem so long ago now) it showed no signs of what was to come for the W12 faithful but Rangers have come a long way since then and it has been an amazing year to be a Hoop.
These games are the games that let you know you have arrived in the top flight of English football and I can see a bit of a drubbing being handed out here. Arsenal have been excellent in recent weeks except for their poor performance the other day, and they will be keen to put that right as soon as possible. The first half display by Rangers at Swansea was woeful. Let’s not gloss over it. It was a pathetic 45 minutes of sitting back, and letting a similar standard team pass the ball for fun. Swansea remind me of a poor mastermind contestant - 200 passes but only one point at end of it. Arsenal won't let us off so lightly if we play that badly again.
I'm not sure what midfield Warnock will play here and worry for a 'sulky Taarabt and a chasing shadows Derry' scenario whilst Arsenal pass the ball around for fun, but I do know that an in form Van Persie could have a field day against our defence. My tip is therefore Arsenal to Score over 2.5 goals at 11/10 with Stan James. Bring on the transfer window - Happy New Year!!
Prediction: I’ve actually said since the very beginning of the season that I fancy QPR to win this game, and you can get them at 12/1 if you feel the same, but now it’s actually here I’m not quite so confident. Arsenal, of all the teams at the top end of the Premiership, seem to be the easiest to annoy, frustrate and suppress. A bit of physical contact and enough defenders packed around the edge of the box to prevent their constant attempts to score the perfect goal is usually all it takes for the crowd to turn, Wenger to become irate on the touchline and the Arsenal players to lose faith and confidence. They are also relying on the form and fitness of one player more than any other team competing for those Champions League places. Sure Man Utd need Rooney to play well, Spurs have Bale, City have Silva and Aguero but all of them have other players as well who can step in and do a job. If Van Persie is injured or not on his game Arsenal become toothless. So the recipe for success is there – keep Van Persie shackled and crowd the edge of your own penalty area. The issue is, do QPR have the players to do it? Sadly, at the moment, I’m not sure they do. Fitz Hall and Clint Hill were rightly praised for their performances against Swansea but the Swans have one of the league’s least threatening attacks and the thought of that pairing going up against Van Persie is terrifying. With the added element of a more winnable, and probably more important, game against Norwich just 48 hours later I foresee a long afternoon here.
Arsenal to win 3-0, 7/1 with Sky Bet, Paddy Power and several others.
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