After Saturday's win Saints fans are starting to believe that promotion is realisitc rathan than a pipedream, so what do we need to do ?
Obviuosly the number of points needed for promotion from this division is not an exact science, so all team like ourselves who harbour hopes of promotion can do is set themselves targets and look to keep achieving them.
A look back over the past ten seasons in the Championship(and whatever it was called before) reveals that the winners of the division have registered as low as 81 points and as high as 106 to finish on top of the pile, usually though its a figure between 90-95 .
For that second automatic promotion spot its just as variable, it has been as low as 79 points and as high as 92, but usually somewhere in the late 80's would make absolutely sure, however on three occasions it has needed in excess of that 90 point mark so perhaps this should be our target.
Before we look at what we need to do in the next five months, lets look where we are presently, with 39 points on the board we have averaged 2.3 per game from our 17 matches, this is of course far better than the two points per game target I suggested at the start of the season and of course Nigel Adkins has also mentioned.
Indeed to achieve that 90 point mark we need another 51 points from our remaining 29 games, to save you getting your calculators out its 1.76 per game, which is highly achievable.
In short if we win just under half of our remaining games we should go up automatically, as i said its not an exact science, but if we win 14, draw 9 and lose 6 of our remaining games then we will hit 90 points and that would hopefully see us home.
But we cant be complacent, there are some good teams in this division and to be blunt anyone down to Nottingham Forest in 17th place will harbour hopes of at least a play off place, pre season favourites Forest and Leicester with new managers will be looking for more, for Forest with a 20 point gap to make up on us it will be a tall order, but dont rule out Leicester, who now sit 14 behind us.
So Nigel Adkins job is to keep Saints focussedon that 2 points per game target and get those games needed to be won, won sooner than later and not allow any of the chasing pack a sniff of catching us.
With a run of extremely winnable games coming up, we could put ourselves in a great position come the new year, but we need to keep plugging away and make our rivals chances that much harder.
Realistically I would say there are five viable contenders for an automatic spot, apart from ourselves, West Ham obviously, Middlesbrough and to a lesser extent Cardiff cant be discounted at the moment as they are not that far behind us and as i mentioned Ii expect Leicester to start coming up fast on the rails, I do think though that come the end of the season it will come down to just three clubs for a top two spot and that is Saints, West Ham & Leicester.
As the season progresses the chasing pack will start to even itself out and the final points total needed willbecome clearer as will who is capable of getting it
There has been some talk on message boards of putting jinxes on if we start to talk of points needed etc, but I dont subscribe to this and neither wil Nigel Adkins, he will see it as essential that the team has a target and remains focussed on it, he will keep that target at two points per game, he wont dilute it down to only needing 1.76, he will keep the current aims, knowing that if we do go on a bad run, which every side does at some stage, he can tell his players that the new target still remains unchanged and that is the two points per game.