The boys return from their Christmas break to examine the weekend markets for value and look ahead to QPR’s trip to Blackburn.
In a LFW first tonight’s Betting Column is posted from Coach B of East Midlands Trains’ 1928 service to St Pancras which is currently, as I type this, awaiting the arrival of British Transport Police after some selfish bastard jumped in front of it at Mill Hill Broadway. They could, of course, have stayed at home and drunk bleach but decided instead to pop out and affect the lives of hundreds of people and traumatise a train driver instead. Anyway the last column, prior to the Leeds game, so no winners but a couple of refunds leaving Brian on £86.36 and Andy on -£82.50.
Happy New Year one and all. The weather hampered a lot of sport over the last few weeks and a winter break in football has been called for. Well this week’s FA Cup Third Round leads to our normal break aka the Fourth Round and for the benefit of a promotion push I hope it continues. For anyone backing a premier team against a lower division side be warned there will be more changes than you can shake a stick at. There are some possible shocks and they make up my football bet this week. Doncaster, Hull, Reading and Southampton all at home have a decent chance against teams who won't field full strength sides. For the benefit of this column I have to place a bet on our game and the home side are 10/11 at VC and this is the one for me. Elsewhere the rearranged Welsh National takes place and Exmoor Ranger is the tip at tasty odds if only for the name. The Masters Snooker is the final pick and again if Ronnie turns up with his snooker head he will take all the beating at 4/1.
For the Weekend:
£14 Blackburn to beat QPR 10/11
£15 Ronnie O'sullivan to win the Masters 4/1
£5 e/w Exmoor Ranger Welsh National 25/1
£1 Yankee (doubles, trebles and acca)
Doncaster 8/5
Hull 7/4
Reading 11/8
Southampton 11/8
Previously Advised:
£10 McDowell to win sports personality 5/1
£10 Dallas Cowboys to win Superbowl 12-1
£2 Lucky 15 and £2e/w acca
QPR to win Championship at 12/1
Huddersfield to win league 1 at 8/1
Rotherham to win League 2 at 12/1
York to win conference at 12/1
£15 Ashes series to be s draw 5/1
£10 Anderson to be top wicket taker 8/1
Happy New Year to all my regular readers – Hello to both of you! (Clive’s right, it’s still as fresh now as the first time it was used…)
After a fairly profitable Christmas and New Years break – Lee Bowyer’s last minute equaliser against Old Trafford meant that I could buy a new 40” TV with my Christmas and birthday money as opposed to just a new 32” TV, we’re back for the FA Cup game against Blackburn.
The magic of the FA Cup – remember when it meant something? Me neither - I’d love to be an old romantic about the cup, but I’d be lying through my teeth. Peter Button Moon has been waxing lyrical about the cup on the offish site, but then he’s probably hoping to get 90 minutes on Saturday. Can’t see Derry waxing quite so lyrical about a cup game right now.
Which makes it more alarming that Warnock has suggested on the offish that he’s going to put a strong team out – frankly I don’t want any of Taarabt, Derry, Mackie et al anywhere near Ewood Park. But that could well be gamesmanship by Warnock, and he’s well aware of where his priorities lie this year. So bearing in mind we have absolutely no idea what strength either team is going to be, it makes it a little tough to bet on the match.
Blackburn are better than evens to win with Betfair which seems pretty generous to be honest – like Clive I expect them to put out a fairly strong squad, so I’ll stick £15 on them to win there. Blackburn are also 9/4 to win to nil – and in an ideal world we’ll have Clarke as lone front man, so another fiver there. that’s £20 against QPR this week. I feel a little bit dirty, but thinking of the greater good and all that.
Elsewhere in the Cup, the two stand out matches are probably Arsenal vs. Leeds obviously Man U vs. Liverpool. Leeds are actually 11/1 to win this game, and if they go full strength and Arsenal put out they (admittedly fairly useful…) second string, there could be an upset. What I do expect though is goals, and a lot of them. I’m going to stick a tenner on there being at least 4 goals in the match, available at 11/8. Bearing in mind that Arshavin and Chamackh could well be playing for Arsenal, I’m a little tempted to enhance that bet to at least 5 goals being scored – that’s available at 16/5 – but I’ll err on the side of caution for now. Watch Leeds sieve like defence become like the Hoover Dam instantly.
Finally, my multiple for the week, and because of the unpredictability of the cup, instead of picking winners, I’m going to revert to the over 2.5 goals accumulator – I’ve got all of Arsenal vs. Leeds, Fulham vs. Peterborough, Norwich vs. Leyton Orient and West Ham vs. Barnsley going over 2.5 goals – a tenner there has odds of 8.35 on Betfair.
For the Weekend:
Blackburn vs. QPR – Blackburn win - £15 @ 11/10 (Betfair)
Blackburn vs. QPR – Blackburn win to nil - £5 @ 9/4 (Bet365)
Arsenal vs. Leeds – Over 3.5 goals £10 @ 11/8 (Betfair)
4 fold accumulator - Arsenal vs. Leeds, Fulham vs. Peterborough, Norwich vs. Leyton Orient and West Ham vs. Barnsley all over 2.5 goals - £10 @ 15/2 (Betfair)